DFS Alerts
Detroit projected lineup has value and some upside vs. Jays’ Waguespack
Over 13.2 innings as both a starter and reliever with the Jays thus far, Waguespack has a 5.93 ERA, 4.15 xFIP and 4.04 SIERA with a 15.3% K-BB. In 52.2 innings in AAA this year, Waguespack had a 5.30 ERA with a 4.96 xFIP and 11.4% K-BB. Projection systems have Waguespack as a roughly 5 ERA pitcher going forward and is someone we can target. The Tigers certainly don’t have a good offense as they actually have a league-worst 74 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year. But the fact is they are incredibly cheap on both major sites this afternoon, especially on Draftkings where every one of their hitters besides Niko Goodrum will be available under $4k. Harold Castro (.328 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), JaCoby Jones (.327), Miguel Cabrera (.327), Nick Castellanos (.322), Christin Stewart (.317), Jeimer Candelario (.303) and Niko Goodrum (.297) are all options. Jordy Mercer (.347) actually has their highest xwOBA vs. RHP but is projected to bat last, tanking his value. Jacoby Jones ($3.6k on DK), Castro ($3.6k) and Miggy ($3k) are projected to bat 1-2-3 and are all great value options. Candelario ($3.7k) has been their hottest hitter since the break with a .360 xwOBA, followed by Castro with a .348 mark. The Tigers currently have a health 5.10 implied line vs. Waguespack and the Blue Jays.
Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Harold Castro, Christin Stewart, Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum
Favorite Stack In GPPs
Drew Smyly is one of my favorite pitchers to stack against today. The Pirates are not the best team against left handed pitching, but Symly has been really bad this year. He has struggled to both sides of the plate this year and has a 50% fly ball rate and 50% hard hit rate. My three favorite bats are Reynolds, Marte, and Bell, but most of the lineup is in play for me.
Other tagged players: Starling Marte, Bryan Reynolds
Favorite One Off
Mookie Betts is my top bat on the slate. He gets Asher Wojciechowski who has only pitched just over 15 innings this year. Its not a huge sample size, but he is giving up a 212 ISO, 57.11% fly ball rate, and a 57.1% hard hit rate to right handed bats. Mookie has a 231 ISO, a 43% fly ball rate, and a 44% hard hit rate against right handed pitching. He has looked good with 10 hits in his last 5 games, so he is definitely worth the high price tag.
Pivot Off the Chalk SP
I like Anthony DeSclafani as a pivot off of Jack Flaherty, who I believe will be the highest owned pitcher on the slate. DeSclifani’s struggles have all been to lefty bats and he should see at least 6 righties including the pitcher. He has done well this year against righties with a 26.4% strikeout rate and both his fly ball and hard hit rate percentages are much lower to righties. DeSclifani is right around Flaherty’s price range so it’s a perfect pivot in GPPs.
Top SP On The Slate
Blake Snell is for sure the top pitcher on the slate today. If you look at who he has been playing in 6 out of his last 7 matchups, they have been really tough opponents; Yankees, Twins, Red sox, and the Angels. He now gets the White Sox, who over the last month are 4th in strikeouts at 25.6%, and dead last in ISO and he gets them at home in one of the best pitchers ball parks in all of baseball. On this slate Snell is tops in both strikeout rate at 32.2% and swinging strike rate at 17.6%, so he should have no problem getting outs today against this White Sox team.
Snell gets great matchup vs. slumping White Sox this afternoon
It’s been a good season for Snell despite an inflated 4.55 ERA; he owns a 3.33 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA, 32.2% K rate, 8.4% BB rate and impressive 17.5% SwStr, as well as a career best .267 xwOBA and 4.8% barrel rate allowed. Snell did have a string of rough starts back in June where he allowed 6+ runs in 3 of 5 starts, including a 6 ER outing where he lasted only 1/3 of an inning. He has looked better in 3 starts since, especially in his last 2 starts coming against a very good Yankees’ lineup which he held to only 1 earned in each start. Today, Snell gets a much easier matchup with a White Sox lineup that has the worst xwOBA in the league since the all-star break with a paltry .257 xwOBA as a team. The White Sox do have a respectable 102 wRC+ versus lefties on the year, though with a decently high 24.5% K rate. Without some of their more productive bats vs. LHP, White Sox have just one batter in their projected lineup (Jose Abreu) who has an xwOBA greater than .315 vs. lefties on the year, with 4 batters under .300. Snell gets a pitcher friendly ump calling balls and strikes in DJ Reyburn and the White Sox currently have just a 2.91 implied total vs. him and the Rays. He makes a lot of sense in both cash and tournaments this afternoon.
Pirates bats in a good spot vs. Smyly
Drew Smyly continues to get chances in what has been a terrible year for him; after 51 innings with the Rangers and opting out of a minor-league contract with the Brewers, Smyly has found himself in the Phillies’ rotation. Over 51 1/3 innings this year, Smyly has an atrocious 8.42 ERA, 6.36 xFIP, 5.61 SIERA and 7.2% K-BB with a 50.6% hard contact rate and just a 27% GB rate. He also owns a .390 xwOBA allowed, 11.6% barrel rate and 89.7 MPH aEV. Smyly has been platoon neutral on the year (.388 xwOBA vs. RHB, .396 xwOBA vs. LHB) and can be targeted from both sides of the plate today. Bryan Reynolds (.372 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Josh Bell (.366), Kevin Newman (.330), and Starling Marte (.330) are all great options. Adam Frazier (.269) has struggled vs. LHP this year but projects to leadoff at just $3.9k. Starling Marte has been their hottest hitter since with all-star break with a .422 xwOBA, followed by Corey Dickerson with a .387 mark. Pirates hitters should also see a decent amount of PA versus the Phillies’ bullpen, who have a 6th worst 4.45 SIERA over the past 30 days.
Other tagged players: Kevin Newman, Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson, Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier Ace Rounding Into Form
From a price and talent perspective, Paxton really stands out. He has a 28.8 K%, but he’s also boasting a 9.0 BB%, his highest rate since his 2015 season. His HR/9 ratio has also ballooned up to 1.31, which would be a career-high if the season ended today. Paxton really struggled in June, allowing six runs in two of his five starts that month. In July, he’s settled down well, pitching six innings in each of his three starts this month and allowing no more than two earned runs in any start. While home runs continue to be a slight issue, the strikeouts have been there to make up for those problems, as he’s now struck out 21 batters over his last 18 innings. In terms of the matchup, it’s an elite one with the Rockies ranking 5th in K% against left-handed pitching this season and a wRC+ of just 87 as a team. The Rockies away from Coors are much less problematic, and on paper this feels like a spot where Paxton should have success.
Rookie In Prime Spot
Tyler Alexander is a 25-year old lefty who did strikeout 94 batters over 85 innings in Triple-A this season, but he’s also allowed 18 home runs in that span while holding a 5.72 ERA. The weird thing is he was never a strikeout pitcher prior to this season. Last season in Triple-A he fanned just 60 batters over 92 innings. And in the year prior to that in Double-A he fanned just 35 batters over 48 innings. He’s someone I’m willing to attack, and I really like the Blue Jays stack on this slate as they are cheap and in a good spot. For cash games, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is my favorite target factoring in his price and likely high lineup spot.
Massive Implied Total Calls For Exposure
As of this writing the Red Sox are nearing an implied team total of 8. That’s pretty aggressive, but considering they scored 17 runs on Saturday maybe it’s not too far-fetched. In cash games, exposure to the Red Sox is a must, and I see J.D. Martinez and Jackie Bradley Jr. as the easiest ways to get it. Both are priced down relative to their teammates, making them my favorite targets on the Red Sox from a pricing standpoint. Asher Wojciechowski does have 21 strikeouts through 15.2 innings this season, and his Minor League track record suggests the strikeouts are real, but a matchup against the Red Sox is not ideal. The Red Sox have the fifth lowest K% against righties this season, making this a tough spot for K upside. Asher also has a career 1.91 HR/9 ratio in the Majors, which is highly concerning.
Gaining Some Consistency
It was a maddening first half of the season for Flaherty, but he has become more consistent over his last few starts. He still owns a 27% strikeout rate and healthy swinging strike rate this year, as well. I don’t mind a matchup against a Reds offense that is very much hit or miss, though they do have quite a few left-handed bats. Still, the pitching gets thin in a hurry on this slate, and Flaherty has more talent than most of the pitchers that are priced around him. I’ll side with his potential today.
Cash Game Safety
While I like the pivot to Blake Snell in tournaments for his strikeout upside against the White Sox, the discount to Paxton makes sense in cash games. If you are looking for safety, Paxton also makes a little more sense on the surface given his favorable matchup against the Rockies and their woeful numbers away from Coors Field. Colorado is fairly weak against LHP and ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories in road games. Paxton has a respectable 29% strikeout rate and sub-4.00 xFIP on the year, and it’s difficult to envision him struggling today. I’ve tagged him as a core option on all sites.
Elite Upside
Our PlateIQ tools really love the Indians today, and I agree. Even though Glenn Sparkman threw a complete game shutout in his last start, this is still a pitcher with a 13% strikeout rate and a SIERA and xFIP well over 5.00. He is also allowing hard contact at a 40% clip. Lindor owns a .362 wOBA and .240 ISO against RHP this season and profiles as one of the best shortstop plays on the board this afternoon. Next to the Red Sox, the Indians are the top offense to target today.
Getting Exposure to a Ridiculous Implied Total
We have seen this before. When Bradley starts to get hot, he is capable of getting REALLY hot. He smacked two home runs on Saturday and could be ready to explode as we hit the end of July. The entire Boston lineup is in play today given their massive implied team total, and I think you need to have at least two (maybe three) Boston bats in any cash game lineup. Bradley is the easiest to fit because of his cheap salary, and he’s an elite point per dollar option against a woeful Baltimore pitching staff. I’ve also tagged J.D. Martinez as a core play. Although he’s struggled a bit against RHP this year, he comes cheaper than the likes of Betts and Bogaerts, making him easier to fit into lineups.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez Angels hitters in a nice bounce-back spot vs. LeBlanc
After Mike Leake took a perfect game into the 9th inning against them last night, maybe we’ll see some depressed ownership on Angels bats tonight. They are again in a good spot tonight versus Wade LeBlanc, who has a 5.15 ERA, 5.05 xFIP and 4.69 SIERA with a 12.1% K-BB and 9.6% SwStr. He also owns a .352 xwOBA allowed, 7.9% barrel rate and 89.7 MPH aEV. LeBlanc doesn’t have too wide of a platoon split and can be targeted with hitters from both sides of the plate. Mike Trout (.426 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Kole Calhoun (.384), Albert Pujols (.362), Dustin Garneau (.352), David Fletcher (.325) and Shohei Ohtani (.314) are all great options. Justin Upton has just a .184 xwOBA vs. LHP this year but in just 27 PA. He has a 113 wRC+ on the year, a career 129 wRC+ vs. LHP and projects to hit 4th at just $3.9k on Draftkings. Other good values include David Fletcher (projected to leadoff, $3.8k on DK), Kole Calhoun (projected 6th in the order, $4.1k) and Dustin Garneau, likely at the bottom of the order but with a price of just $3k.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, David Fletcher, Kole Calhoun, Dustin Garneau