DFS Alerts
Danced This Dance
We danced this dance yesterday and despite Martinez disappointing with just a walk I’m looking to run it back with the Red Sox slugger on Saturday. As I mentioned yesterday, Martinez has almost an identical batted ball profile as last year but has been a bit unfortunate – he owns the tenth highest xWOBA (.405) of hitters with at least 100 plate appearances this season but just the 73rd highest wOBA (.363). A string of at bats against a poor Baltimore pitching staff over the weekend should end in good fortune for Martinez as long as he’s able to continue to make good contact.
Dominant Potential Against LHP
As a team, the Minnesota Twins rank 2nd in baseball in wOBA (.358), 3rd in ISO (.216), and 2nd in wRC+ (123) against left-handed pitching this season. While Brett Anderson often shows reverse splits, this team still lines up very well against him. Nelson Cruz has made a career out of smashing against LHP and is now healthy again. C.J. Cron is hitting .356 against LHP this year with a .434 wOBA and .322 ISO. Don’t hesitate to use a few Twins in cash game builds tonight, with Cruz and Cron at the top of the list.
Other tagged players: C.J. Cron
Thriving With His New Team
While he doesn’t get a ton of national attention because of all the other stars on this team, Michael Brantley is thriving in his first full season in Houston. The Astros have a fantastic matchup tonight against a low strikeout RHP in Ariel Jurado tonight, as well. Brantley is hitting .322 with a .385 wOBA and .203 ISO vs. RHP this year, and he should be in the middle of some offensive damage. He is one of the top point per dollar options on this Saturday slate.
Time For a Vintage Performance
While Kershaw is by no means the dominant ace that he used to be, he’s still a fine major league pitcher. His current ability is generally under-valued because we are familiar with his prior dominance, but he still gets the job done. Kershaw still owns a respectable 3.00 ERA on the year, and his command is still very good with a 4% walk rate. He’s not going to beat himself, and that’s good news in a home matchup against the feeble Marlins. The Dodgers are -310 favorites in Vegas, and Kershaw is extremely safe here. Perhaps we’ll see some vintage upside as well.
David Dahl (foot) scratched Friday; Garrett Hampson replaces
Dahl has been scratched from the Colorado Rockies original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Friday’s matchup against the New York Yankees due to a left foot contusion. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Garrett Hampson, who will now play left field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Rockies batting order but, most notably, bumps Daniel Murphy and Ryan McMahon up to fourth and sixth, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Colorado faces off against left-hander J.A. Happ on the road this evening.
As reported by: Nick Groke via Twitter Other tagged players: Garrett Hampson
Tyler Beede has increased slider usage and decreased walks (none last two starts)
For the second night in a row, one of the more interesting pitching matchups takes place in San Francisco. Jacob deGrom is the obvious daily fantasy candidate with a 30.6 K%, 3.21 ERA, 3.44 SIERA, 2.27 DRA, and .271 xwOBA in a great park, even if the Giants own a 129 wRC+ since the break. A lot of that damage was done at Coors it took them 16 innings to score their second run last night. They have just a 74 wRC+ and 8.5 HR/FB at home this year. The bigger surprise might be Tyler Beede. After walking 15.4% of his first 182 batters this year, he’s gone back to back starts without walks coinciding with sudden increased slider usage. While he’s not a great contact manager, he does own a near average 21.4 K% this year and pitches in a park that can handle some hard contact. If he can cut down on the walks, he can go deeper into games, which the Giants may need him to do tonight after last night’s marathon. The Mets are a league average offense (98 wRC+, 14.2 K-BB% vs RHP) and the negative park effect may mean even more tonight with weather boosting effects expected in many parks around the country. Beede costs less than $7K on either site.
Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom
Yanks have whopping 7.14 implied total vs. Freeland in the Bronx
It’s been quite the fall for Freeland, who went from receiving Cy Young votes last year to pitching to a 7.39 ERA, 5.34 xFIP and 5.18 SIERA this year. Freeland was sent down to AAA earlier in the year and it doesn’t seem like he figured much out, as he posted an 8.80 ERA and 5.01 xFIP with an 8.4% K-BB over 30 innings. In his first start back from AAA on 7/13 Freeland only lasted 4 innings, giving up 5 earned runs, 9 hits and striking out 3. The Yankees lineup looks as dangerous as it has all season, and just about the whole lineup is in play vs. Freeland. Aaron Judge (.434 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), DJ LeMahieu (.390), Luke Voit (.383), Edwin Encarnacion (.376), Mike Tauchman (.345) and Gary Sanchez (.345) have been the Yankees’ best bats vs. LHP this year. Hicks, Torres and Urshela all have an xwOBA vs. LHP under .300 on the year but are still very much in play. Considering the great match-up and sky-high total, Yankees bats are pretty affordable, with Aaron Judge being the only hitter over $5k on Draftkings. Of course, Yankees hitters figure to see very high ownership tonight across all contests.
Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Kyle Freeland, DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, Edwin Encarnacion, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks, Gio Urshela, Mike Tauchman
Taylor Clarke allows the most Barrels/BBE (12.9%) on the board
No pitcher on tonight’s board comes within 2.5 points of Taylor Clarke’s 12.9% Barrels/BBE. In addition to this, he has just a 7.8 K-BB%. Perhaps the Diamondbacks realize this because they’ve limited him to 21 batters or fewer in each of his last seven starts. Perhaps they don’t because a .378 xwOBA suggests he shouldn’t be facing even that many. Arizona is no longer the hitter’s haven it once was with the advent of the humidor last season and may lag behind several weather boosted run environments tonight, but here we have a pitcher who has allowed a .403 xwOBA to LHBs against a team packed with left-handed power, implied for 5.5 runs. Christian Yelich (212 wRC+, .412 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is likely the top overall bat on the board, while Yasmani Grandal (123 wRC+, .238 ISO), Mike Moustakas (115 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Eric Thames (105 wRC+, .237 ISO) all have some daily fantasy value tonight.
Other tagged players: Taylor Clarke, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames Jake Odorizzi's Z-Contact has cratered (90%+ three of last four) and taken the rest of his game with it
Jake Odorizzi allowed just a single run in Cleveland last time out, but still struck out just two for the third time in four starts. His previously elite Z-Contact rate (76.3% through his first 12 starts) has cratered over his last five (88.2%). In fact, it’s been above 90% in three of his last four. The results, multiple HRs in three of his last five starts. Odorizzi has a .355 xwOBA over the last month that’s more than 50 points above his season rate to go with his 16.7 K% over the same span. An extreme fly ball pitcher (32.3 GB%), his Barrels/BBE is up to 10.2% without a particularly high aEV (87.4 mph). Also consider that his xwOBA against RHBs over the last calendar year (.334) is 83 points higher than his actual mark and Oakland bats pick up some potentially concealed value here. Matt Chapman (148 wRC+, .282 ISO), Mark Canha (134 wRC+, .261 ISO) and Ramon Laureano (126 wRC+, .227 ISO) have hit same-handed pitching exceptionally well over the last 12 months. In fact, not a single batter in the projected lineup is below a 104 wRC+ vs RHP over that span with only Marcus Semien (.160) and Robbie Grossman (.132) below a .200 ISO. Add in a possible weather boost and this could be a strong spot for the A’s on Friday night.
Other tagged players: Marcus Semien, Robbie Grossman, Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano Jordan Zimmermann has allowed 9.6% Barrels/BBE with the lowest strikeout rate on the board (14.6%)
Jordan Zimmermann has allowed 14 runs over his last 7.1 innings. Somehow, he’s only allowed a single run over his last five starts, but has managed to allow less than three runs in just one of them. It’s not because he’s missing bats (14.6 K% lowest on the board) and it’s not because he’s avoiding hard contact (89.6 mph aEV, 9.6% Barrels/BBE), nor is he generating ground balls (37.2%). Yet, somehow, he’s kept the ball in the yard and (10.3 HR/FB) and still been pounded for a 7.01 ERA (7.43 DRA) with a .371 xwOBA. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him over the last 12 months. The Blue Jays are one of seven teams implied for at least 5.5 runs tonight and should return good value with only Lourdes Gurriel (106 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) above $4.3K on DraftKings and nobody above $4K on FanDuel. The only downside is that Eric Sogard (126 wRC+, .162 ISO) is the only batter in the projected lineup above a 100 wRC+ since the break. He also owns the lowest ISO vs RHP (last 12 months) among those projected.
Other tagged players: Lourdes Gurriel, Jordan Zimmermann Brendan McKay has a 13.2 SwStr% and has walked just one batter through three starts
Brendan McKay struck out seven Orioles in his last start, to drive his strikeout rate up to an average 22.4% over three starts, but with an impressive 13.2 SwStr% and 78.7 Z-Contact%. Perhaps more impressively, he’s walked just one of the 58 batters he’s faced and generated a 4.6 Hard-Soft% with an 86.6 mph aEV resulting in a .287 xwOBA. You may site the short sample and wonder about the quality of opposition, but he’s also faced the Yankees and Rangers and exceeded a 20 K-BB% at both AA and AAA this year. He’ll face an offense that has been league average against RHP this year (101 wRC+), but with a 17.9 K-BB% and 10.1 Hard-Soft%. In addition, since the break, the White Sox have just a 68 wRC+ and 10.2 HR/FB as they currently regularly employ Jon Jay and Ryan Goins among their starting nine. McKay offers quite a bit more upside than his strikeout rate suggests for less than $9K in a controlled environment, which is important considering the heat wave currently enveloping a large portion of the country. The only downside is that McKay has not gone beyond 20 batters in any of his three starts, nor beyond 22 batters in any of his minor league ones this year.
David Price is having a really good year (21.5 K-BB%, .283 xwOBA)
Friday’s slate offers quite a few high quality pitchers in strong spots, but does anybody realize how strong of a season David Price is having? He combines a 21.5 K-BB% with a 3.16 ERA that’s about half run below his non-FIP estimators due to a 9.9 HR/FB and the fact that six of his 37 runs allowed have been unearned. However, he’s allowed just 6.8% Barrels/BBE and owns a .283 xwOBA that’s right in line with his actual mark (.284). His 13.2 Hard-Soft% is behind just Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman tonight, among pitchers with more than three starts. He can even call a move to Camden tonight a park upgrade, while facing an offense with an 84 wRC+, 19.7 K-BB% and 10.3 Hard-Soft% vs LHP this year. The Orioles also have just a 59 wRC+ since the break. With five pitchers above $10K tonight, Price offers a quality alternative in a strong spot for $9.5K or less on either site.
Solid SP #2 Option
McKay has a world of talent, and he has posted an ERA under 1.50 so far this season in 16 appearances between Double-A, Triple-A, and the major leagues. The strikeouts have been slow to develop at the MLB level, but he has walked just one total batter in his three MLB starts. A matchup against the White Sox also increases his potential upside. The salary isn’t super cheap anywhere, and I don’t think it’s mandatory go here in cash games, but I like the GPP potential. I’ve tagged him as my second core play on DK/FDRAFT, but it’s a “loose” core tag… if that makes any sense. There are so many options tonight that you don’t need to pigeon hole yourself here if you are not a fan of McKay.
Elite Ace in a Great Matchup
As for tonight, deGrom checks in as yet another ace in a favorable matchup. He faces a Giants offense that offers next to nothing for offensive punch, and I love targeting pitchers against teams that are coming off a series at Coors Field. A switch from Coors Field to their home park is not going to be fun for the Giants, especially since these teams played 16 innings on Thursday and an ace is facing them tonight. Run support and a bad bullpen have cost deGrom countless wins over the last two years, but perhaps he can do it all himself tonight. The Mets will need innings after last night’s marathon. deGrom still has an elite overall profile with a 31% strikeout rate and low walks, and the Giants simply don’t have the thump to scare him. deGrom is the fourth most expensive pitcher on both FD & DK, and he earns core play status for me this evening.
Core Value at First Base
I’d probably stack the Marlins against Jordan Zimmermann at this point. He has been one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball this season, with an ERA north of 7.00 and a meager 14% strikeout rate. He simply isn’t fooling anyone. The problem lies in the fact that the Toronto offense isn’t exactly the most consistent, stable force in the league. Fire up any and all Toronto bats tonight. Despite an underwhelming overall year, Justin Smoak has quietly amassed a .366 wOBA and .270 ISO against RHP, and he is definitely a viable option at his affordable price tag on every DFS site.