DFS Alerts
Largely Unnecessary
Quite honestly, rostering Velasquez is largely unnecessary on a slate loaded with pitching options yet I’m still finding myself attracted to VV in tournaments, especially on FanDuel. Velasquez remains an inefficient pitcher with decent strikeout upside which plays better on sites where you’re not discounted for allowing base runners. Perhaps the biggest benefit of rostering Velasquez is that he’ll lead you to unique lineup construction on FD as the vast majority of ownership will be eaten up by pitchers priced $9K or above.
Play Him When They Throw Him Strikes
Bryce Harper has a low .233 batting average, but that has brought his salary down far too much on DK/FDRFT/Yahoo for his talent level. His batting average will always fluctuate, but his OBP remains high with his elite patience and his power is unquestionable with yet another ISO above .230 this season. The best time to play Harper is when he likely to see pitches to hit. Miles Mikolas is a strike thrower with below average swing and miss ability. He can always get on base if the pitches aren’t there, but if he gets one in the zone, he can take advantage of his 43% hard hit rate and .252 ISO against righties.
Don't Overthink It
The Red Sox are the clear top offense on tonight’s slate, and it all starts with the big right-handed outfield bats of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Baltimore’s John Means has been a pleasant surprise, but as a fly ball lefty with average strikeout ability, he is going to run into home run trouble in his home park. J.D. Martinez has a .310 ISO and .454 wOBA against lefties since the start of 2018 and so far in 2019, he has brought his strikeout rate down a career best 13.9%. He is my top bat in all formats tonight.
Overweight on Mad Max
I’m genuinely eager to see how ownership shakes out on Monday night. Early indications are that Max Scherzer could see his ownership dip a bit with both Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom becoming more heavily owned. If that’s the case, I want to be overweight on Mad Max. Scherzer is allowing a lot of hard contact this season (38.1% vs 28.5% for career) but his strikeout numbers are still absolutely elite (32.8 K%, 16.1 SwStr%). While this isn’t the best run prevention spot for Max against a powerful Milwaukee offense in Miller Park, Scherzer still has tremendous strikeout upside. Eight of nine batters (including pitcher spot) in the Brewers current projected lineup had strikeout rates north of 20% against RHP last season with five posting strikeout rates north of 22%.
So Many Aces
The pitching is loaded tonight with four of the best pitchers in the league, and several more very good options below them. I can’t make any case to fade the aces in cash games, and I’ll start with Jacob deGrom going into San Diego. I have no lingering concerns about his elbow after he threw 101 pitches with 15.8% swinging strikes in his last start. Three of his six starts starts this season have come with no runs allowed and he has been back up over 50% ground balls with 20% hard contact allowed in his last two starts. With 34.8% K and a 3.12 SIERA for the season, he looks like the same ace that won the Cy Young Award in 2018.
Tommy La Stella (back) scratched Sunday; Luis Rengifo replaces
La Stella has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Houston Astros due to back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Luis Rengifo, who will now play second base and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps David Fletcher all the way up to leadoff, respectively. However, the remainder of the Angels lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Justin Verlander in the Mexico Series finale this afternoon.
As reported by: Fabian Ardaya via Twitter Other tagged players: Luis Rengifo
Start of TBR-BAL will be delayed due to rain Sunday
The start of the matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles on Sunday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Orioles have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of pitchers like Ryan Yarbrough not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there is significant postponement risk for this contest since storms aren’t expected clear out of the area for several hours.
As reported by: Luke Jones via Twitter Luis Castillo in a Great Spot on 4PM Slate
If you’re playing the 4PM slate or all-day slate, your best SP option might be Luis Castillo. Castillo is in the midst of a breakout year with a 1.45 ERA / 3.32 xFIP and a 54.7% GB rate, 29% hard contact rate and 29.4% K rate. Castillo get a home start vs. the Giants this afternoon who have just a 72 wRC+ and 22.8% K rate vs. RHP. The Giants project to have just 2 bats in their lineup this afternoon with an xwOBA vs. RHP above .330 since 2018. Castillo has also been much better at home in his career, allowing just a .266 xwOBA at home versus a .319 xwOBA on the road. His K% for his career also increases 6 points at home. Castillo will have a good shot at a W with the Reds being -186 favorites. One thing working against Castillo will be an extremely hitter-friendly umpire in Paul Nauert. The Giants have just a .358 implied total vs. Castillo and the Reds Sunday.
Brew Crew
Jason Vargas has looked better in his last two starts, but I’m still not buying into it. This season he is giving up a 41% fly ball rate, 58% hard hit rate, and a 12% walk rate. I think the Brewers are a great stack today, and hopefully people will be off of them with last night’s game going 18 innings. Braun, Aguilar, Yelich, and Cain are the bats I will be targeting.
Favorite One off In GPPs
Matt Chapman is a sneaky one-off in tournaments. He has 9 hits in his last 5 games, and to right handed pitching this season, Chapman has a 244 ISO, 410 wOBA, 45% hard hit rate. I don’t think many people will be targeting him, especially at his high price, so we should get him at low ownership. Chapman has the power and upside we look for in GPPs.
Brewers in Another Great Spot
The Brewers will face Jason Vargas in Miller Park Sunday as Vargas is still somehow in the Mets’ rotation. Vargas has a 6.31 xFIP, 3.1 K-BB% and .394 xwOBA on the year while throwing a fastball 57% of the time that is averaging 85 MPH. Since 2018, Vargas has actually been equally bad vs. RHB and LHB in terms of xwOBA. Ryan Braun (.432 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Christian Yelich (.408), Lorenzo Cain (.377), Jesus Aguilar (.366) and Hernan Perez (.316) are all options in the Brewers order today. Jesus Aguilar and Ryan Braun both have an xwOBA over .400 in the past 10 days and are batting 3-4 in the order. Aguilar is just $3.9k and will continue to be chalk as his price slowly adjusts from his slow start. The Brewers have a 5.16 implied line vs. Vargas and the Mets, which does feels a bit low given the matchup and environment.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Hernan Perez, Jason Vargas Tigers a Less-Popular Stack Option
The Tigers will face Brad Keller at home Sunday afternoon. Keller has a 5.14 xFIP and 5.47 SIERA on the year with a 3.9 K-BB% and just an 8% SwStr. For Keller’s career, he has been much more vulnerable vs. LHB with a .342 xwOBA allowed vs. just a .298 mark against RHB. Jeimer Candelario leads off for Detroit at just $3.6k on Draftkings, although he has just a 95 career wRC+, Keller’s soft tossing skill-set could pair well with Candelario’s swing and miss approach. Niko Goodrum is batting 4th and is another viable LHB, he is enjoying a breakout year with a .398 xwOBA. Although they will not have the platoon advantage, Nick Castellanos (.371 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018) and Miguel Cabrera (.361) have shown the ability to mash RHP are are firmly in play with very affordable prices on both major sites. Harold Castro is a LHB that had a 137 wRC+ in AAA this year, he is another cheap option batting 6th for the Tigers this afternoon. Given the abundance of stack options on the slate today, Tiger hitters should come with pretty low ownership. The Tigers have a 4.46 implied line vs. Keller and the Royals Sunday.
Other tagged players: Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, Harold Castro, Brad Keller Brew Crew
Jason Vargas has looked better in his last two starts, but I’m still not buying into it. This season he is giving up a 41% fly ball rate, 58% hard hit rate, and a 12% walk rate. I think the Brewers are a great stack today and hopefully people will be off of them with last nights game going 18 innings. Braun, Aguilar, Yelich, and Cain are the bats I will be targeting.
Brew Crew
Jason Vargas has looked better in his last two starts, but I’m still not buying into it. This season he is giving up a 41% fly ball rate, 58% hard hit rate, and a 12% walk rate. I think the Brewers are a great stack today and hopefully people will be off of them with last nights game going 18 innings. Braun, Aguilar, Grandal, and Mousetakas are the bats I will be targeting.
Brew Crew
Jason Vargas has looked better in his last two starts, but I’m still not buying into it. This season he is giving up a 41% fly ball rate, 58% hard hit rate, and a 12% walk rate. I think the Brewers are a great stack today and hopefully people will be off of them with last nights game going 18 innings. Braun, Aguilar, Grandal, and Mousetakas are the bats I will be targeting.