DFS Alerts

Great Spot For This SP

Don’t let the ERA fool you, Jack Flaherty has been pitching well despite his inflated 5.25 ERA. Flaherty has a 3.12 xFIP, 25.7 K-BB%, and 3.18 SIERA despite a very tough schedule that had him face the Brewers 3 times already (twice in Miller Park) and the Dodgers. Flaherty’s 2.63 HR/9 and 50.7% hard contact rate are cause for a little concern, but those numbers should regress as he gets some better matchups over his next few starts. Flaherty faces the Reds at home Sunday who have a league-worst 66 wRC+ vs. RHP and a 24.7% K rate. The Reds also own just a .296 xwOBA over the last 10 days and have just one batter (Jesse Winker) with an xwOBA above .325 on the year. Flaherty has a 30.5% K rate this year and is a safe play with some upside against this Reds lineup. The Reds have a 3.46 implied total vs. Flaherty and the Cardinals this afternoon.

Value in SDP Lineup

The Padres have a nice matchup vs. Jeremy Hellickson on Sunday, who through 19 innings has a 5.81 xFIP, 0 K-BB% and a .349 xwOBA. Since 2017, Hellickson has a .342 xwOBA and has been mostly platoon neutral. Greg Garcia will hit 2nd for the Padres, costs just $3.3k on Draftkings and is a career 100 wRC+, .318 xwOBA hitter. Manny Machado’s price has fallen to just $3.9k on Draftkings, too cheap given he is a career 120 wRC+ hitter vs. RHP batting 3rd and could go off any game now despite early season struggles. Eric Hosmer is in the 5 spot in the order and just $3.6k. He has also had early season struggles, but has started to swing it better with a .316 xwOBA over the last 10 days. Fernando Tatis Jr. is also an intriguing option in the leadoff spot. He isn’t cheap at $4.4k, but has shown plenty of upside in a great rookie campaign with a 135 wRC+ and 5 steals. Wil Myers is also a solid option at $4.3k batting 4th, he has a 112 wRC+ on the year, however he has slumped a bit over the last 10 days with just a .187 xwOBA.

Target A's Bats

With a fairly substantial amount of evidence that balls are juiced again in 2019, it makes sense to go after pitchers who struggle to keep the ball out of the air. Trent Thornton fits that profile with just a 31.3% GB rate. He is also giving up plenty of loud contact with a 46.3 hard% and just a 17.9 soft% with a 92.2% aEV. Thornton has done a decent job missing bats with a 10 K/9 so far, but he never showed that kind of K rate in the minors and most projection systems have him more in the 7-9 K/9 range. Thornton gets a tough matchup vs. the A’s in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre this afternoon. Khris Davis (.378 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Matt Chapman (.365), Ramon Laureano (.348), Chad Pinder (.345), Stephen Piscotty (.344) and Mark Canha (.335) have all hit RHP very well. Robbie Grossman (.304) bats 2nd and is a nice value at just $3.9k. Matt Chapman has by far the highest exit velo and average batted ball distance on the A’s over the last 10 days and might be the best bet in the A’s lineup to leave the yard with Khris Davis’ enduring a small slump (.217 xwOBA over last 10 days).

31% K Rate Under $10k

Matt Boyd is another pitcher who has made some changes in 2019 and looks like a brand new guy. His 31% K rate, 3.16 ERA, 3.39 SIERA, 25% soft contact rate and 16.1% SwStr are all career bests. Per Statcast, Boyd has started throwing his sinker less and his four seamer more, a wise decision considering his sinker was his worst pitch last year with a .375 xwOBA against. Boyd’s four seamer in 2019 has been more effective with a spin rate of over 100 RPM more in 2018, leading to a whiff rate that is 12% higher. Boyd gets a matchup with the White Sox in Chicago this afternoon, who have been slightly below average vs. LHP with a 93 wRC+ and 24.6% K rate. The White Sox have just two players in their projected lineup (Jose Abreu, James Mccann) who have an xwOBA .320 vs. LHP since 2018. Boyd will also get to work with a pitcher’s umpire in Tony Randazzo. Boyd’s price is still plenty affordable at $10k or less on both major sites. The White Sox have a 3.81 implied total vs. Boyd and the Tigers this afternoon.

Power Bat In GPPs

Khris Davis has struggled in his last 10 games, recording just 4 hits while striking out 14 times, but today I like him against Trent Thornton. Thornton to right handed batters is giving up a 48% fly ball rate and 45% hard contact rate. Khris Davis’ price is down on DK to $4,200, which is just too cheap with his talent and power, so I love this play for GPPs.

Contrarian Rays Stack Again In Play

In 23 innings this year, Chris sale has posted an inflated 7.43 ERA with a 2.35 HR/9 and .365 xwOBA allowed. Even if his ERA estimators (4.46 xFIP, 4.19 SIERA) call for some regression, it’s clear that right now Sale is not the dominant pitcher we’re used to seeing. He is currently posting career worsts in K-BB%, soft contact % and hard contact % in addition to ERA and WHIP. His fastball velocity has dipped almost 3 MPH from last year, which helps explain why the pitch has the worst FB pitch value in the league so far in 2019. This afternoon he faces a Rays team that has been surprisingly good on offense to start the year. Yandy Diaz (.344 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Tommy Pham (.441), Daniel Robertson (.357), Avisail Garcia (.351) and Mike Zunino (.273) make up the top 5 batters for the Rays today in that order. Zunino has struggled vs. LHP but owns a .618 xwOBA over his last 10 days. Daniel Robertson once again stands out as the best value, hitting 3rd with a price of just $3.1k on Draftkings. The Rays have just a 3.64 implied total, but I think they are a good bet to top this number and will likely see low ownership across the industry.

Favorite GPP One Off

Ronald Acuna is one of my favorite one-offs of the day. We will see Trout come in as probably the most popular spend up, so I think in tournaments, Acuna is a great pivot. Acuna against left handed pitching this year has a 550 ISO, 588 wOBA, and a 42% hard contact rate. I am hoping he sneaks in at under 10% ownership today.

KC STACK

Kansas City will be a team to stack up today in tournaments. They go up against Matt Harvey, who has really struggled this year, especially to the left side of the plate. He has a walk rate of almost 16% while giving up a 61% hard contact rate. I will be targeting the three main lefties: Gordon, O’Hearn, Mondesi, and then adding in the righty Dozier, who has been on fire this year with a 407 ISO and 494 wOBA against right handed pitching.

KC STACK

Kansas City will be a team to stack up today in tournaments. They go up against Matt Harvey, who has really struggled this year, especially to the left side of the plate. He has a walk rate of almost 16% while giving up a 61% hard contact rate. I will be targeting the three main lefties: Gordon, O’Hearn, Mondesi, and then adding in the righty Dozier, who has been on fire this year with a 407 ISO and 494 wOBA against right handed pitching.

KC STACK

Kansas City will be a team to stack up today in tournaments. They go up against Matt Harvey, who has really struggled this year, especially to the left side of the plate. He has a walk rate of almost 16% while giving up a 61% hard contact rate. I will be targeting the three main lefties: Gordon, O’Hearn, Mondesi, and then adding in the righty Dozier, who has been on fire this year with a 407 ISO and 494 wOBA against right handed pitching.

KC STACK

Kansas City will be a team to stack up today in tournaments. They go up against Matt Harvey, who has really struggled this year, especially to the left side of the plate. He has a walk rate of almost 16% while giving up a 61% hard contact rate. I will be targeting the three main lefties: Gordon, O’Hearn, Mondesi, and then adding in the righty Dozier, who has been on fire this year with a 407 ISO and 494 wOBA against right handed pitching.

GPP Pitcher

Kyle Gibson is an interesting tournament play. I feel like today people might skip over Kyle, but he has one of the better matchups on the board. He is playing against a Baltimore team that is bottom 10 in ISO to right handed pitching. Gibson faced this team just a week ago where he had his best performance of the year, going 6 innings, giving up two earned runs while striking out 6 batters. This is more of a matchup and ownership play, but I do like it, especially if goes a little under the radar like I predict he will.

He's Still The Top Hitter In The Game

Mike Trout is Mike Trout. Homer Bailey is Homer Bailey. I’ve tagged enough other value today to where you should be able to pay up for Trout in your cash game builds, and that is what I will prioritize. Despite an “average” start by his standards, Trout still owns an OPS over 1.000, and he should very much be in the mix against Bailey today. Don’t be surprised if this is a breakout spot.

He’s generally not regarded as an elite option, but this is a great spot for Ryan O’Hearn as a potential salary saving option. He carries plenty of power and draws a fine matchup against Matt Harvey, who has struggled against left-handed bats for several years now. That has continued into 2019, as lefties have a ridiculous 63% hard contact rate and a .400+ wOBA against Harvey so far this season. O’Hearn has three multi-hit games over his last seven contests and steps into a fine matchup here. Use him as an elite value today.

If It's Not Broken, Don't Fix It

If it’s not broken, don’t fix it. I tagged Kepler as a core option in Saturday’s early slate, and he did not disappoint with a pair of home runs off the Baltimore pitching staff. There’s a great opportunity for the good times to keep rolling today against Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a .352 wOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters throughout his career. Kepler’s price remains very affordable on all the DFS sites, and there’s a chance for him to get five at-bats out of the leadoff spot.