DFS Alerts
Site Specific Values
On FD, first base is a position with some great value options on this slate. Personally, I am sticking with Jesus Aguilar who is all the way down at minimum salary from his poor start to the season. But, the dude has an .067 BABIP on 47% hard hits and 26% line drives against lefties, he has nowhere to go but up. However, if you are sitting it out on him, we’ve got Daniel Murphy in the same game and Mitch Moreland in Boston as first base values. Moreland gets Frankie Montas who has been a far better pitcher against righties, while Murphy faces Zach Davies, who has more walks than strikeouts against left-handed batters this season.
Flyball Righty With Reverse Splits
Jake Odorizzi is far from the worst pitcher on the slate yet I still find myself targeting him with Astros hitters. Odorizzi has posted a respectable strikeout rate this season (24.5 K%) but has struggled with run prevention (4.62 SIERA). The Twins righty isn’t only a fly ball pitcher but is also tougher against lefty hitters which gives Houston right-handed bats strong power upside.
Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Robinson Chirinos, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley
Where Oh Where Is The Value
This is a tough slate for bats, especially on DK/FDRFT. Nothing stands out as a must play, and nothing is cheap enough to get overly excited about. The quality bat that looks like a moderate value is Brandon Nimmo, facing Tanner Roark. Nimmo has brought his strikeouts down after a rough first two weeks, and he is hitting line drives and keeping his walk rate high. This gives him both on base and extra base hit upside from the top of the lineup at a fair price.
Everything Looks Fine Here
There was some early cause for concern when Zack Wheeler walked seven batters in his second start of the season, but things have been turning around, and he was lights out last week with an 11-K, seven inning shutout against the Phillies. After a 25.7% K rate in the second half of 2018, he’s right back to 26% this season, while the hard contact continues to be at one of the lowest rates of any pitcher in the league. I am still expecting the Reds to turn things around, but they just haven’t been a tough opponent this year, and I’ll roll with Wheeler at home in all formats tonight.
Strikeouts Are The Thing
As balls continue to fly out of the ballpark, it is becoming tougher and tougher to view any pitcher as safe. We need to assume everyone is allowing some runs in this environment. However, strikeouts are going up too, and nothing is more predictable than strikeout pitchers. Maybe Verlander allows a couple home runs, but give me the 30% strikeouts plus good control so I know I’m getting some points out of it. The upside outweighs the downside.
It's Just Weird
There is nothing at all to look at in Steve Wilkerson’s skill set to call him a Core Play. I do not even expect anything good from him tonight, in fact I expect a zero. But, it’s just weird and nonsensical to have one player out of 150 who is this much cheaper than every other player. On DK/FDRFT, there are not any great values tonight. To put together a lineup with upside, you’ll need to spend some salary. Any random cheap player can luck into a couple hits, so just take the ridiculous savings here and spend that extra money on something good.
Really Close To The Stone Minimum
Stevie Wilkerson has really struggled against left-handed pitching in his brief Major League career. With that said, he’s really cheap on DraftKings today, and with limited value on this slate, I certainly think he’s cash game playable. I’m expecting 75-85 pitches for Banuelos tonight, which means Wilkerson could still get two at bats against a right-handed pitcher out of the bullpen. If he draws the start today, he’s one of my favorite value plays on DraftKings and FantasyDraft.
It's All About The Pitch Count
Like John Means, this will be the same matchup Banuelos had in his last start. He was only able to go four innings in his first start of the season, but I think he has a pitch count increase in his second start. Baltimore is 21st in team wOBA against lefties, and they have a 25% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Their 26.5% hard-hit rate is the lowest among all teams against lefties. While I still like Means more on DraftKings, I think the price discount on FanDuel makes him worth a look in this spot.
We Could See A Pitch Count Increase
John Means drew a spot start against the White Sox on the 24th and pitched well enough to earn him another start tonight. He has a 3.64 xFIP with a 26.7% strikeout rate in 2019, and he’s keeping both righties and lefties under a .300 wOBA. This projected starting lineup has six hitters with strikeout rates over 20% against left-handed pitching this season. I still worry about how deep he will go, but at his price, I think the upside is worth the shot. Plus we don’t have a lot of high upside pitchers in this range.
Cheap Power
Margevicius has been really good against righties in his short time in the Majors, but that’s not going to stop me from stacking the Braves tonight. Johan Camargo is really cheap on FanDuel, and one of my favorite value plays on this slate. Since the start of 2018, he has a .216 ISO with a .344 wOBA and a 39.8% hard-hit rate. According to the MLB WeatherEdge tool, this game also has the best weather on this slate.
Josh Harrison (shoulder) scratched Sunday; Ronny Rodriguez replaces
Harrison has been scratched from the Detroit Tigers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox due to a left shoulder contusion. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ronny Rodriguez, who will now play shortstop and slot directly into Harrison’s vacated seventh spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Tigers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Reynaldo Lopez on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Jason Beck via Twitter Other tagged players: Ronny Rodriguez
Great Upside
Marwin has some pretty good upside today in the RBI department. Dylan Bundy is somewhat of a mixed bag of results, but the xfip this season suggest he is due for some runs to be piled on. He is one of the cheapest bats on this team and getting exposure through him is a great way to add an additional Twins bat.
Too Many Righties
We know what Zach Eflin is at this point. He is going to pitch really well against righties, and just pitch “ok” against lefties. Well today the Miami Marlins have decided to roll out a completely right handed lineup. He should be racking up strikeouts right and right (because there are no lefties). That was pretty corny I know, but I still thought it was a giggler. He has a 24% K rate to righties this season and it should be on full display against this Miami lineup.
Glasnow In Play Despite Matchup
Tyler Glasnow is in the midst of a breakout season which has seen him put up a 1.53 ERA, 3.53 SIERA, 20.7 K-BB% and a 50% GB rate. Glasnow has also allowed a Barrel % of just 3.9 and an xwOBA of just .250. Glasnow is in Fenway on Sunday to face the Red Sox, but the matchup isn’t as bad as it may seem. The Red Sox have just an 86 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year and will be without arguably their best hitter in J.D. Martinez. The Red Sox lineup this afternoon has just 2 hitters with an xwOBA above .330 on the year (Benintendi and Betts). Glasnow will also have the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Doug Eddings, as well as a good pitch framer in Mike Zunino. Glasnow is available under $10k on both major sites and while he’s not a safe option, he is certainly intriguing in GPPs with plenty of upside.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi
Too Cheap All Season
Ryan O’Hearn has been too cheap all season for the amount of power he displays. Today he gets a matchup with Matt Harvey who’s recent trends suggest that he is on his way to a major beatdown. I like the whole Kansas City Team, but O’Hearn is definitely my favorite play for the price. I like O’Hearn in all formats today and think he will be able to drive in a few runs based the players ahead of him in the order.