DFS Alerts
Too Cheap on FanDuel
The surface numbers aren’t that great for Jack Flaherty, as he owns an ERA over 5.00 in the early going. However, he has been victimized by a ridiculous 29% HR/FB rate, and he has already had to face the potent Brewers three times. Things will get better, especially when you consider his 30.5% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate. His SIERA sits at 3.18. I’m definitely on board with him as an elite option today, particularly on FanDuel where he checks in at a very reasonable price.
Today's Top Pitching Option
The top pitching choice is site dependent for me today. On FanDuel, I am going with Jack Flaherty, as this is a weak pitching slate where Flaherty is priced below five other options. On DraftKings and the other sites, however, I will default to Chris Sale. His stuff looked better in his last outing, where he struck out ten Tigers on the way to his best start of the year. Sale matches up well with the Rays and should get rolling sooner rather than later. Remember, this is a pitcher that was arguably the best arm in baseball a year ago. As long as he has found his mechanics, he’s the best option we have on the board today, and he matches up well against a Rays team that sends up some of their top hitters (Lowe, Choi, Kiermaier) from the left side of the plate.
Lefty Outfielder Coming Off Two-Homer Day
I’m expecting the Twins to be popular after hitting five homers on Saturday and now they get to face homer-prone Dylan Bundy. I like both Max Kepler and C.J. Cron in this matchup as cheaper pivots off Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario if you can’t get up to them. Kepler should be leading off and is coming off a two-homer game. I think Twins exposure in cash games is a good strategy, and Kepler is an affordable way to get it.
Home Run Masher Against Fly Ball Pitcher
There are a ton of good options at 1st base today but C.J. Cron is one of my favorites. He remains affordable relative to his Twins teammates, and he gets an elite matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has already allowed seven home runs this season. Add in the fact that Cron has good BvP against Bundy (three lifetime homers) and he’s someone I’m looking at strongly in all formats.
Surprising Pitcher Looks to Keep Rolling
It’s been an amazing start for Matthew Boyd this season. He’s up to 39 strikeouts in just 31.1 innings for a 31% strikeout rate. His swinging strike rate is at a crazy 16.1%, which is way higher than his career 10% mark. He’s gone at least six innings in four straight starts and has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the majors thus far. I don’t love that his matchup against the White Sox takes place in hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, but the White Sox are an average offense against left-handed pitching. They have a 24.6% strikeout rate and a team wRC+ of 93. I prefer using Sale as my SP1, but Boyd is right there if you prefer someone in better form.
Cheap SP2 Looking For Encore Performance
I’m hoping to spend up at my SP2 spot, but on lineups where I need extra savings to load up on bats, I’m looking to punt with Reynaldo Lopez. The underlying numbers for Lopez are not pretty as he’s been hurt by a high BABIP and a high walk rate, but he’s not scored 21 DraftKings points in back to back outings, including once against this Tigers lineup. This is by no means a safe play as the numbers suggest to stay away, but the Tigers are a below-average offense against right-handed pitching and I’m willing to attack them one more time with Lopez.
Shaky Ace In Bounceback Spot
I know Chris Sale has been up and down this season, but he’s facing a watered down Rays team that lacks quality right-handed bats. The Rays have a 30% strikeout rate this season against lefties and this is a prime bounce back spot for Sale. His velocity was slightly down in his last start so this isn’t without risk, but I’m looking at Sale as my SP1 in cash games and hoping he bounces back big here.
Underrated Stack Friday Night
The Rockies face the Braves and Mike Foltynewicz in Suntrust Park Saturday night. The Rockies do not have the benefit of Coors tonight, but they do have a few things working in their favor. Mike Foltynewicz threw just 2 innings in Spring Training due to an elbow injury. Foltynewicz made 4 rehab starts in the minors, posting an ugly 6.11 ERA / 5.82 xFIP / 6.3 K-BB%. He’ll likely be shaking off some rust, to say the least, in his start tonight. Charlie Blackmon (.347 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Trevor Story (.347), Daniel Murphy (.357), Nolan Arenado (.326) and David Dahl (.353) make up the top 5 of the Rockies’ lineup, in that order. With the exception of Tony Wolters and Nolan Arenado, every batter in the Rockies order has an xwOBA above .340 over the last 10 days. Rockies’ hitters also have the benefit of a very friendly hitter’s umpire tonight in Dana Demuth. The Rockies have a 4.31 implied line vs. Foltynewicz and the Braves.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl, Tony Wolters
Pay Up at SP
The night slate is yet another slate where it’s likely optimal to pay up at SP given the lack of safe options. While I do think Clayton Kershaw is in his decline phase, he gets a really nice matchup tonight at home vs. the Pirates. Through 2 starts, Kershaw has looked just about what we thought he would when healthy: 3.35 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA, 18.7 K-BB%. The Pirates come into this matchup dead last in the league with a 60 wRC+ vs. LHP with a 30.3 K% that is also league-worst. They have also been one of the worst offenses in the league over the past 10 days with a 25th ranked .304 xwOBA. Kershaw has been better at home for his career with a 2.08 ERA and .245 wOBA allowed at home versus a 2.74 ERA and .265 wOBA allowed on the road. He also has the benefit of catcher Austin Barnes tonight, who is one of the best pitch framers in the league. The Pirates have just a 2.8 total vs. Kershaw and the Dodgers Saturday night.
High-Upside SP Under $8k
Brandon Woodruff has a 5.81 ERA, but his 3.81 xFIP, 3.81 SIERA and 19.5 BB-K% prove that he has been much better than his ERA suggests. Woodruff is also striking out 27.1% of batters so far in 2019, right in line with his 26.7% mark in 2018 which gives him a nice floor/ceiling combo in DFS. Woodruff faces the Mets in Citi Field tonight, which is a much friendlier environment than his home stadium Miller Park. The Mets have been pretty average with a 99 wRC+ and 22.9% K rate in 2019. Working in Woodruff’s favor tonight will be one of the best pitch framers in the game in Yasmani Grandal, combined with a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Adam Hamari. The Mets do not have a bad lineup by any means, but at Woodruff’s price he is as good of a bet as any SP on the slate to hit points/$ value. The Mets have a 4.02 implied line vs. Woodruff and the Brewers Saturday night.
I've Got The Power
Ryan O’Hearn is a guy that has tremendous power numbers against right handed pitching and get’s a great matchup tonight with Mr. Jaime Barria. On the season he has a .339 ISO and a .420 WOBA. It’s just a matter of time before he racks up a few long ball and I want to get ahead while the price is still very affordable across the industry.
Dback's Stack
Arizona is a team I will be stacking today in tournaments. They go up against Darvish who has looked a little better in his last two starts but still has had trouble this season with his control. He has given up a 17% walk rate this season, and 5 home runs in his last 3 games. I think on this 7 game slate the Diamondbacks should be a little under-owned going up against one of the more expensive pitchers on the board. I am targeting David Peralta, Christian Walker, Adam Jones and Eduardo Escobar in my stacks.
Dback's Stack
Arizona is a team I will be stacking today in tournaments. They go up against Darvish who has looked a little better in his last two starts but still has had trouble this season with his control. He has given up a 17% walk rate this season, and 5 home runs in his last 3 games. I think on this 7 game slate the Diamondbacks should be a little under-owned going up against one of the more expensive pitchers on the board. I am targeting David Peralta, Christian Walker, Adam Jones and Eduardo Escobar in my stacks.
Dback's Stack
Arizona is a team I will be stacking today in tournaments. They go up against Darvish who has looked a little better in his last two starts but still has had trouble this season with his control. He has given up a 17% walk rate this season, and 5 home runs in his last 3 games. I think on this 7 game slate the Diamondbacks should be a little under-owned going up against one of the more expensive pitchers on the board. I am targeting David Peralta, Christian Walker, Adam Jones and Eduardo Escobar in my stacks.
Dback's Stack
Arizona is a team I will be stacking today in tournaments. They go up against Darvish who has looked a little better in his last two starts but still has had trouble this season with his control. He has given up a 17% walk rate this season, and 5 home runs in his last 3 games. I think on this 7 game slate the Diamondbacks should be a little under-owned going up against one of the more expensive pitchers on the board. I am targeting David Peralta, Christian Walker, Adam Jones and Eduardo Escobar in my stacks.