DFS Alerts
Affordable Power Bat
Ryan O’Hearn is not a household name, but he is a guy that should definitely be on your radar today. Last season he was able to put together a .393 ISO and a .459 WOBA against right handed pitching. He was also able to generate a 12.4% walk rate. The ability to get on base and also hit for power is why I like him in this spot against Tyson Ross. It also doesn’t hurt that he should have a few guys on the base paths during his at bats and i’m looking for some dynamic RBI potential here.
The Stro-Show
Marcus Stroman has gotten off to a fairly good start this season. The one thing that I am seeing a little more of in the early going is the K rate. It’s early but as of right now he’s sitting at a K rate of 24.5%. We’ve know him to be a groundball pitcher his whole career and this has not changed as balls are on the ground at a 61.1% clip so far. If you put these two things together and throw in a match-up with the Cleveland Indians who just don’t have the bats right now, it’s easy to see Stroman put up another respectable start here. His price is very affordable across the industry and should definitely be a target.
Good Batting Order Spot And A Fine Matchup
This play might fly under the radar a little bit today, but I like the spot for Jay Bruce. He’s hitting in the middle of a batting order that has been quietly dangerous so far in 2019, and Bruce has been a big part of that with five early home runs. Even though he’s not hitting for average, all it takes is one big fly to pay off a mid-range price tag. The matchup is a good one against Ivan Nova, who allowed a .352 wOBA and pitched to a 5.18 xFIP against left-handed bats a year ago.
Elite Upside
The Yankees will certainly garner attention today, but I want to start most of my lineups with a one-off Houston power bat. Mike Fiers is basically splits-neutral and has major issues with the long ball. That’s a recipe for disaster against this lineup. Give me the leadoff man with plenty of pop; if he gets five at-bats today, it’s difficult to see him putting up a goose egg. In cash games, he’s my priority spend, though I will admit that this is a wide open slate for bats.
A Step Down, But Still Solid
Outside of Scherzer, there are a lot of really solid pitchers on the mound today. For my money, I’ll grab Archer as my first selection on rosters where I don’t have the money to fit Mad Max. Archer is often frustrating because he tends to nibble and rack up high pitch counts in a hurry (as he did in his first start against the Cardinals). However, his electric stuff is undeniable, and this is a great matchup against a Reds team that has looked abysmal offensively over the season’s first week and a half. They rank last in the league with a woeful .165 team batting mark, and I wouldn’t expect that to turn around against Archer. The Pirate righty is a fine pivot if you can’t quite afford Scherzer.
Sunday's Top Arm
It’s a remarkable stat, but Scherzer has actually increased his strikeout rate in every season since 2014. He has gone from a 27.9% strikeout rate (2014) to 30.7% (2015) to 31.5% (2016) to 34.4% (2017) to 34.6% (2018). That’s incredible. He is showing no signs of slowing down and is the clear ace on this slate in a matchup against the Mets. Scherzer does a great job of limiting hard contact, and while he occasionally has issues against left-handed bats, he held hitters from each side of the plate to a sub-.200 batting average a year ago. Lock him in.
Phenomenal Value
Alex Gordon appears to be on the cusp of a breakout season. He has started the year with six walks and just one strikeout over his first 31 plate appearances, so it is clear that he is seeing the ball well. He is sporting a .300 ISO and .449 wOBA in the early going. Sure, it’s a small sample size alert, but his DFS price tag remains very affordable on all sites, and he’s a great value in a juicy matchup against Tyson Ross today.
Bundy Has Some GPP Appeal vs. Yanks
There aren’t going to be many times this year you’ll want to pick a pitcher vs. the Yankees. That said, Bundy has some dart-throw GPP appeal for a few reasons. The Yankees are pretty banged up, and their lineup tonight features just 3 batters who had an xwOBA vs. RHP above .319 last year. Bundy is plenty affordable, especially on Draftkings ($6.9k) where pricing is tight and stacking Coors will not be easy to do. Since 2016, Bundy has seen much better success at home (.311 xwOBA vs. .333 on the road). He also holds the platoon advantage against 5 of 9 Yankees hitters which is important given his splits (.297 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB since 2016 versus .346 vs. LHB). The Yankees have a 4.86 implied total which feels a bit high, but should ensure his ownership isn’t too high.
Braves are a Solid Non-Coors Stack Tonight
The Braves face off against Sandy Alcantara tonight with an implied total of 4.8. Alcantara is a talented fireballer who has not yet put it together in his young career. His MiLB numbers leave a lot to be desired for a guy that averages 96 MPH on his fastball. Alcantara had just a 6.85 K/9 with a 4.65 xFIP in the minors last year and then posted an ugly 5.16 xFIP and 4.8% K-BB in his 34 inning big league stint. Also working against Alcantara tonight is umpire Andy Fletcher who is extremely hitter friendly. Freddie Freeman (.392 xwOBA vs. RHP last year), Ronald Acuna (.363) and Nick Markakis (.363) are solid ATL bats to build around. Dansby Swanson (.280) struggled last year but has been hot so far in 2019 with a .396 xwOBA and comes at a very affordable price. Johan Camargo (.301) is giving Josh Donaldson a breather at 3B and comes at an affordable price as well.
Other tagged players: Sandy Alcantara, Ronald Acuna, Nick Markakis, Dansby Swanson, Johan Camargo Value Arm to Help Stack Coors
You’ll no doubt need some salary relief to stack Coors tonight. With DK pricing looking as tight as ever, it won’t be easy. Wade Miley is super cheap ($6.6k on DK) and could hit value tonight at home vs. the A’s. The Athletics are no easy matchup ranking 4th in the league last year with a 105 wRC+ vs. LHP. They have started out cold in 2019 however with just a 20th ranked .294 xwOBA on the year. Miley figures to get a decent shot at a ‘W’ with the Astros current sporting a 5.06 implied run total compared to the A’s 4.44 total. Another factor working in Miley’s favor are his home/road splits, he has pitched better at home since 2016, allowing a .330 xwOBA at home versus a .353 mark on the road. At his price, it won’t take a crazy K total or hit value, we just need a non-blow up outing.
Astros Have the Highest Non-Coors Implied Total Tonight
The Astros face Aaron Brooks at home tonight and have an implied total of 5.06, highest on the slate besides the Dodgers at Coors. The Astros are an intriguing stack if you aren’t going all in on Coors. Brooks has a career 7.29(!) ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 8.9% K-BB in 66.2 career IP dating back to 2014. He has actually been worse vs. RHB for his career, giving up a .420 wOBA to righties versus a .351 mark against lefties. To Brooks credit, he did start the season well against the Red Sox, holding them to 2 hits over 6 IP with a 6/1 K/BB while showing increased velocity. Still, he is a journeyman who projects to be terrible this year (4.87 ERA per Steamer) and is certainly someone to target. Bregman (.359 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2017), Springer (.352), Altuve (.357) and Correa (.348) are all core ‘Stros that are in play. Correa’s price on FD has been a bargain the past few days and remains too cheap to pass up at just $3.2k. Michael Brantley (.360 xwOBA vs. RHP last year) is batting cleanup and comes in at a cool $3.5k on FD.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Josh Reddick, Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, Aaron Brooks Deep Diving for Value
This slate does not afford us the best opportunity to take advantage of many plays on the value train. Welcome aboard Neil Walker. While I do think that Kyle Wright will have a nice outing, I still think we can hand pick a few Miami bats. Walker is on the right side of the platoon split here and may have just enough pop to get one over the Wall that Freddie Freeman built in Atlanta. The price is affordable and the spot in the order is just Wright. (See what we did there?)
Cheap Chalk?
I didn’t expect us all to be venturing onto the Kyle Wright train tonight. Maybe I was just being a bit naïve. At any rate, I will just keep it simple here. Miami has a very low iso as a team and a very high K rate to pair with it. Those two things should yield a pretty nice outing for Mr. Wright as long as he can pitch with some good control and not walk guys onto the base paths. The price tag is very affordable across the industry and seems to be the de-facto value play at pitcher.
Cheap Leadoff Experience
The Arizonza Diamondbacks hung a number on the Red Sox last night, and while I do not expect the same score, they still have a chance to score a few. Adams Jones is a very affordable leadoff bat for tonight’s slate. He has plenty of big league experience and has definitely had his fair share of face-offs with David Price. I think he is a plug and play here and should yield nice results for the price point. Additionally, Price will be throwing the sinker roughly 48% of the time, a pitch that Jones makes contact with 85% of the time. I like the odds for putting the ball in play here and so should you.
Load Up Here
On FanDuel tonight, the salaries give us a little more ability to get to multiple Dodgers bats in Coors Field. While Jon Gray is more of a ground ball pitcher to righties, his strikeouts were a lower 23.2% vs RHB, and the mix of elite contact plus fly ball ability from Turner more than outweigh the batted ball splits for Gray. In 2018 struck out just 11.6% of the time against righties along with a 41% hard hit rate and 43% fly balls.
