DFS Alerts
HR-Prone Pitcher Could Give Up Multiple Longballs Tonight
Andrew Cashner allowed 1.47 HR/9 last season, the 10th worst rate among pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched last season, and there are a number of Blue Jays hitters that could take advantage in Toronto tonight. Randal Grichuk (career .244 ISO), Teoscar Hernandez (career .234 ISO), and Justin Smoak (career .189 ISO, with 63 HRs over the past two seasons) will all be poised to take Cashner deep tonight. Don’t overlook less-known Rowdy Tellez as well, who already has 5 HRs in 57 career ABs against right-handed pitchers.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk
Low-owned stack has power potential tonight
Tampa Bay doesn’t have the highest projected run total tonight, projected at less than four runs against Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, but they do have a number of right-handed hitters that hit southpaws well. Tommy Pham has 18 career HRs in just 315 ABs against lefties along with a 0.861 OPS, while Avisail Garcia has a career 0.816 OPS against lefties. Most dangerous of all may be catcher Mike Zunino, who will be hitting in the 5th spot tonight and holds a career .678 OPS against left-handers despite just a .216 batting average.
Other tagged players: Mike Zunino, Avisail Garcia Dominant Pitcher May Have Lower Ownership Tonight
Justin Verlander looked sharp to start the year, racking up the win and nine strikeouts in seven innings against Tampa Bay last week. That’s a continuation of a dominant season last year, where the Astros right-hander put up 290 Ks in only 214 innings for a 12.2 K/9 along with a 2.63 SIERA and a 0.90 WHIP. It looks like Max Scherzrer may be the more popular pitcher tonight in a game with a run line a full two runs less than the Astros – Rangers matchup, putting Verlander in an ideal spot for GPPs.
Well Priced Lefties
Once we get away from Houston tonight, the offense gets tough to find at fair prices. One place we can find some reasonable salaries in a plus matchup is with the Mets lefties against Jose Urena. It is not ideal to play bats in Miami, but Urena is a below average pitcher to lefties, striking out just 16.1% while allowing 41% hard contact last season. On FanDuel, Michael Conforto is the standout value at $3,200 with his .195 ISO against right-handed pitching. He has a couple of good on-base hitters ahead of him and should see some RBI chances tonight.
Really Cheap On Both Sites
This will be the third start of the season for Marco Gonzales, and if you’re looking for a cheap SP2 on DraftKings or FantasyDraft, I think he’s an interesting option. We saw this Angels lineup really struggle with left-handed pitching last season, and outside of Mike Trout, I’m not really worried about anyone here. The projected starters had a combined .150 ISO with a .298 wOBA against lefties last season. They still don’t strikeout a lot, and that’s the only concern when playing Gonzales in tournaments. Gonzales posted a 3.58 xFIP with a 21.1% strikeout rate and a 4.7% walk rate. He did an excellent job limiting power, and kept runners off base with a low walk rate.
Going Back To The Well
They’ve been moving around this Blue Jays lineup a lot to start the season, but I’m hoping we see Billy McKinney hit leadoff tonight against Cashner. Cashner had a .365 wOBA with a .230 ISO and a 17.1% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters last season. He relies a lot on his fastball/sinker against left-handed hitters, and in a small sample size, McKinney has crushed fastballs and sinkers. Cashner looked bad in his first start against the Yankees, and I don’t see any signs for him to improve this season. McKinney is off to a slow start, but had a .214 ISO with a .358 wOBA in 109 PAs against right-handed pitchers last season.
Making Up For Last Night
Houston managed just 2 runs on Monday night, but it came with eight hits plus four walks, and a high contact team like Houston is not always going to strand that many baserunners. Michael Brantley should continue to get a prime spot in this talented Houston lineup, where his elite plate skills – 8.7%K, 9.1% BB, .382 wOBA, 41% hard htis vs RHP, will give him all kinds of ways to help DFS lineups. The Rangers Shelby Miller hasn’t been a decent major league pitcher since 2015, and even prior to all his injuries, he was below average against lefties with a career 17.6% strikeout rate.
He's Looked Really Good
There’s a good chance that I pay up for pitching tonight, but Marcus Stroman is in play on FanDuel and Yahoo tonight. We get our friend Bill Miller behind the plate in Toronto tonight, and if you don’t know, he’s one of the best pitcher umpires in baseball. This projected lineup for Baltimore had five hitters with groundball rates over 50% against right-handed pitching last season. They also had five guys with strikeout rates over 20%, with four of them over 24%. Stroman looked really good in his debut against the Tigers and continued a really strong Spring Training. I like this matchup a lot, and I think he has the upside to be worth a look in tournaments.
Making Up For Last Night
Houston managed just 2 runs on Monday night, but it came with eight hits plus four walks, and a high contact team like Houston is not always going to strand that many baserunners. Josh Reddick is not one of the best hitters in this lineup, but on FanDuel, his $2,300 salary is very useful on this slate. He should see plenty of runners on base, and his low 15.7% strikeouts and 11.4% walks give him on base ability to go with the RBI chances.
Really Like This FanDuel Price
Shelby Miller has struggled with injuries for three seasons now and has really struggled to pitch well in that span. The last time he had a swinging strike rate over 10% in a season was 2012. He struggled with command in Spring Training, and that makes me want to go right back to the well on the Astros bats. Carlos Correa has a great price tag on FanDuel and should be considered a top cash game option over there. He’s not off to the best start this season, but he’s hitting fifth in one of the top offenses on the slate tonight.
Aces Looking To Rebound
While Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were in top form on Opening Day, Chris Sale and Blake Snell were struggling. This is reflected in the pricing on DFS sites tonight, so if we can find the right bounce back ace, we’ll get him at a discount. The velocity drop was more dramatic on Sale, while Blake Snell was getting bit by the HR/FB bug against a good Houston team. I am not going to go all-in on any of the aces tonight, but I’m looking for the bounce back start from Snell at home against Colorado at a hefty discount based on his 2018 numbers. Everything went right for him last season, and while that won’t happen again, it’s unlikely everything goes as wrong as it did on Opening Day.
Aces, Aces Everywhere
This is a tricky night with pitching, but for a different reason than we saw on Monday. There are at least six aces on the mound tonight and several more viable options below them. I am not going to call it a necessity to start your lineups with Max Scherzer tonight, but he is the best pitcher and my top choice on all sites in all formats. He was in mid-season form on Opening Day with 12 strikeouts in 7+ innings. He is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down after back-to-back seasons above a 34% strikeout rate and four straight years of a swinging strike rate above 15%. We need to keep an eye on the weather in Washington, but if it holds, Scherzer is my first choice on a slate full of strong pitchers.
Pivot Off The Chalk
With Mike Trout being everyone’s favorite spend up on the slate today, Martinez seems like a great pivot in GPPs. He has started off the season great with 7 hits in his first 17 at-bats along with 2 home runs. Additionally, Martinez’ ISO to right-handed pitching is .315 with a .443 wOBA. He is going against an unknown pitcher in Aaron Brooks, so I will happily take J.D. in this matchup.
A Sneaky One-Off
Khris Davis is hot with the bat right now, hitting three home runs in his last four games, and he gets a matchup at home against the lefty in David Price. Davis has 265 ISO with a 350 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. I also think that Price will be one of the more heavily owned pitchers, therefore people might stay away from Davis. For those reasons, we may get him a little underowned, so for tournaments he is one of my favorite outfield plays.
My Top Pitcher Tonight
Even with the difference in pricing on both FanDuel and DraftKings, Mathew Strahm is still my favorite pitcher on the slate. We first get an Arizona offense that is just not very good in San Diego, which is a good pitcher’s ballpark. I see a ton of upside here, especially since Strahm had great strikeout numbers to both sides of the plate with a 28 percent K rate last season. He will be on most, if not all, of my lineups tonight.