DFS Alerts
Strikeout Upside
We get the lefty Caleb Smith matched up against the Mets tonight. Smith is someone who I think has a lot of talented, posting about a 26 percent strikeout rate to both sides of the plate last year. He really does well against lefties, and the Mets’ three best bats all come from the left side in Cano, Conforto, and Nimmo. We also get the ballpark upgrade for the pitcher being that this game is played in Miami. Add this all up with his cheap price across sites, and it makes him one of my favorite pitchers on the slate.
Keep Playing The Best
I don’t want to have to keep giving you the same Core Play everyday, but Mike Trout is just in a league of his own, and he continues to get strong matchups to open the season. Because there are no high end ace pitchers tonight, we have some salary to play with. Felix Hernandez is just not the guy he used to be and he fell to just 17.3% strikeouts against right-handed batters in 2018. His lone remaining skill is 53% ground balls to righties, but that simply doesn’t help against Trout, who smashes ground ball pitchers. Trout had the highest ISO in the league against right-handed pitching in 2018, and in the early going, we’ve seen how he can help a fantasy team even when he’s not having big days. He’ll have plenty of 2-HR or 4-hit games this season, but even when he’s not doing that, he’s picking up walks or steals or runs or doubles.
Another Chance To Fly
The Blue Jays have been a frustrating team in the early going, but they have another matchup that is too good to ignore. Baltimore’s David Hess had the 4th highest HR/9 mark in the league last season, striking out just 13.9% of left-handed batters and 18.8% of righties while allowing 45% fly balls with a .259 ISO to lefties and a .191 ISO to righties. The trio of Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez all posted ISO’s above .245 and hard hit rates above 37% against right-handed pitching. My first preference is Justin Smoak, and his salary on DK/FRDFT and Yahoo leave him as the Core option, while on FD, you can save some salary going down to Randal Grichuk.
Another Chance To Fly
The Blue Jays have been a frustrating team in the early going, but they have another matchup that is too good to ignore. Baltimore’s David Hess had the 4th highest HR/9 mark in the league last season, striking out just 13.9% of left-handed batters and 18.8% of righties while allowing 45% fly balls with a .259 ISO to lefties and a .191 ISO to righties. The trio of Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez all posted ISO’s above .245 and hard hit rates above 37% against right-handed pitching. My first preference is Justin Smoak, and his salary on DK/FRDFT and Yahoo leave him as the Core option, while on FD, you can save some salary going down to Randal Grichuk.
First Stop For Bats
The Astros are likely to be the popular offense on the slate tonight heading into Arlington to face Drew Smyly and the Rangers bullpen. Smyly was a good pitcher many years ago, but it’s been a long time, and even if he’s effective he won’t pitch all night. Alex Bregman has an elite 86% contact rate against lefties the past two seasons along with a .260 ISO and .416 wOBA. On DK, play him at SS so you can still fit Justin Turner, while on FD and Yahoo, the salary on Bregman is lower, leaving him as my top infielder.
Flawless Skill Set
Justin Turner’s numbers against left-handed pitching have been out of this world the past couple seasons. Combining 2017-2018, we’re looking at a guy with just 11.4% strikeouts vs 13.8% walks and a 47% hard hit rate leading to a .284 ISO and .464 wOBA. Drew Pomeranz missed most of 2018, was ineffective when he pitched, and was only average against righties in his healthy 2017 season. Turner is a strong option in all formats tonight.
The Fly Ball Rate Helps
There isn’t a lot of value bats on DraftKings or FantasyDraft tonight. Dwight Smith Jr. is a guy that really stands out to me. Sean Reid-Foley had a .332 wOBA with a .194 ISO against lefties last season. He threw a lot of fastballs to left-handed hitters last season. His slider was very good last season, but only threw it 16% against lefties, compared to 33.46% against righties. In 61 PAs in 2018, Smith Jr. had a .245 ISO with a .391 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. His massive groundball rate of 50% should be okay against a fly ball pitcher like Reid-Foley.
Have You Even Heard Of This Guy?
Pitching is really tough on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, I highly recommend paying up on these sites. If you’re looking for a tournament flyer, I don’t mind taking a shot on Merrill Kelly. Kelly spent two seasons in AAA with the Rays in 2013 and 2014. Since then he’s played three seasons in the Korean League and posted really respectable numbers in his last season. It’s really hard to find advanced stats for the Korean League, but he did have 189 strikeouts in 190 innings and only allowed 16 home runs. His first two starts in Spring Training were rough, but his last three were much better. It’s a complete shot in the dark, but I expect him to be low owned and there are a lot of strikeouts in this Padres lineup.
Power Upside With A Cheap Price Tag
Drew Smyly will make his first start since 2016, and it’s always unexpected what we see from someone coming off a long injury. While he always had good strikeout stuff, he really struggled with the long ball. He had a 1.61 HR/9 against right-handed hitters in 2016. In a small sample size in 2018, Tyler White crushed left-handed pitching. He had a .288 ISO with a .423 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season. He did a lot of damage on fastballs in general, and Drew Smyly threw his fastball 55% of the time to righties in 2016.
Site Specific Values
There are several upside pitchers around the slate tonight, and we see a huge pricing discrepancy between sites on the Padres Matt Strahm. He is the 2nd highest priced pitcher on DK, but just 10th on FanDuel. His questionable innings are more than made up for by the $6,400 salary. He’s pitched mostly out of the bullpen to this point, so we can’t assume he’ll continue with his 27.9% strikeout rate, but this is a pitcher with a lot of upside and four good pitches. Everyone has some risk tonight, but the points per dollar upside is big for Strahm on FD tonight.
Tough Night For Pitching
We don’t have any sure things on the mound tonight, and this will be a slate where I’d look to spread out in tournaments. The closest thing we have to an ace is David Price. His strikeouts are not elite, but have settled in the 24-25% for four straight seasons along with better than average control. There are pitchers with similar upside at lower prices, but they are all full of question marks. I don’t love it, but I’ll start with Price tonight.
They Missed This Price
Matt Strahm is one of my favorite pitchers on this slate, and he’s way underpriced on FanDuel. The projected starting lineup for the Diamondbacks really struggled with left-handed pitching last season. They had a combined .148 ISO with a .317 wOBA and a 20.6% strikeout rate against lefties in 2018. Marte and Ahmed were the only hitters with an ISO over .200, and Marte was the only hitter with a wOBA over .350. Strahm had a 28.2% strikeout rate with a 12.3% hard to soft contact ratio. I love his upside on FanDuel at this price, and don’t expect him to stay this cheap.
Freddy Galvis (back) scratched Sunday; Richard Urena replaces
Galvis has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers due to a sore back. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Richard Urena, who will now play shortstop and slot directly into Galvis’s vacated eighth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Blue Jays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Matt Moore at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Hazel Mae via Twitter Other tagged players: Richard Urena
Buehler likely not worth the price on afternoon slate
Although he is the only elite arm on the slate, it will be tough to pay up for Walker Buehler ($10.1 on DK, $12.1 on FD) given his likely reduced pitch count. Buehler threw just 2.2 innings during Spring Training as the Dodgers handled him with caution to protect his arm. He most recently threw a 60 pitch bullpen on 3/25, so he certainly doesn’t figure to see his regular pitch count this afternoon. Rick Porcello ($9.2k on DK, $9.6 on FD) vs. the Mariners and Chris Paddack ($9.7k on DK, $10.3 on FD) vs. the Giants could be good alternatives as the next two highest priced starters on the slate. There is a chance Paddack could be on a reduced pitch count to start the season as well, he averaged just 76 pitches per MiLB start last year as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery and the Padres figure to be cautious with him.
Other tagged players: Chris Paddack, Rick Porcello
BAL-NYY will be delayed due to rain Sunday
The start of the matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees on Sunday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Yankees have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like J.A. Happ not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the most likely outcome is that the game plays through following a lengthy initial delay.
As reported by: James Wagner via Twitter