DFS Alerts
He Deserves The Price Tag
Max Scherzer is priced way up on a slate where we have a lot of good pitchers at lower salaries. For that reason, he is certainly not a must play, but there are question marks with everyone else that just don’t exist with Scherzer. When someone is this far ahead of the pack, I always recommend playing him in cash games, even when it means sacrificing a few high end bats. Scherzer is showing no signs of slowing down with double digit strikeouts in six of his last nine starts and at least seven innings in eight of his last 12. His 34.4% K rate easily tops the list and while it’s not an ideal strikeout matchup, the next options below him don’t have ideal matchups either. He’s fadeable in tournaments at the salary, but get him if you can.
Rain possible in a few spots without much concern
Thursday’s forecast has been updated and though rain is possible in a few spots, overall concern levels are not high. Players can read the full update on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6PM (a half hour early tonight) for further updates.
Well projected, but not a very deep lineup
Heath Fillmyer has three quality starts among his last six, but has also allowed at least four runs in each of his other three. He has just a 14.1 K% with an 88.3 mph aEV, but has kept the ball on the ground around 50% of the time against batters from either side of the plate. Yet, he has a sizable platoon split with RHBs (.380 wOBA) well above LHBs (.288 wOBA), though xwOBA does raise that latter mark 43 points. The Twins offer a lineup that has Robbie Grossman (84 wRC+, .098 ISO vs RHP) batting cleanup, yet oddsmakers grace them with the third highest implied run line on the board (4.81). Jorge Polanco (130 wRC+, .132 ISO), Eddie Rosario (125 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Jake Cave (117 wRC+, .213 ISO) are the only above average hitters against RHP in the Minnesota lineup.
Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco, Heath Fillmyer, Eddie Rosario Walk machine gives weak offense a top implied run line tonight
Stephen Gonsalves has started four games for the Twins. He’s allowed at least four runs in all four and has completed four innings just once. On top of a -9.7 K-BB% and a 13+ BB% at AA and AAA this season, batters from either side of the plate are above a .480 wOBA and xwOBA as well as a 40% hard hit rate. The Royals will send eight RHBs to the plate, a side against which Gonsalves has just a 28.9 GB% so far. Additionally, the Twins are just one of five teams in baseball with a bullpen FIP above five over the last month. Kansas City can only boast two above average hitters against LHP in Whit Merrifield (156 wRC+, .180 ISO) and Raul Mondesi (117 wRC+, .209 ISO), but Sal Perez (93 wRC+, .185 ISO) would seem viable here as well. Only three other teams exceed the Royals’ 4.69 implied run line tonight.
Other tagged players: Adalberto Mondesi, Salvador Perez, Stephen Gonsalves Potentially under-valued lineup against a pitcher with a large ERA to estimators gap
The Dodgers are on the bottom half of the board at just 4.35 implied runs against rookie Austin Gomber in St Louis, who has a 2.93 ERA through eight starts, but underlying numbers may suggest this total is too low. Aside from a SIERA and xFIP in the high fours, Gomber has a .357 xwOBA against, 53 points than the actual number against him. He does have an 85.9 mph aEV, but a 36.6 GB% has led to 7.8% Barrels/BBE, which is slightly on the high side and dangerous against a Dodger offense producing seven batters above a league average hard hit rate (33%) against LHP this year. Four of those batters are above a 110 wRC+ and .220 ISO vs LHP this year as well: Chris Tayler (112 wRC+, .222 ISO), Justin Turner (181 wRC+, .227 ISO), Manny Machado (149 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Matt Kemp (115 wRC+, .224 ISO). David Freese adds a 125 wRC+ with just a .144 ISO with a low price tag out of the cleanup spot. A mostly very affordable Los Angeles lineup may be a bit under-valued here.
Other tagged players: Chris Taylor, Austin Gomber, Manny Machado, Matt Kemp, David Freese Hardest hitting offense vs pitcher who's allowed 36 HRs over 22 starts
The A’s are one of two teams above five implied runs on Thursday (5.18). Though nearly a half run behind the Red Sox, Oakland gets a substantial park boost and the pitches coming from Dylan Bundy’s right arm this year appear to have a rocket launcher attached. He’s allowed 36 HRs over his last 22 starts and the Baltimore bullpen might be even worse. This is not a good matchup for Bundy against the hardest hitting offense in baseball. Five of the first six batters in the Oakland lineup are above a 40% hard hit rate against RHP. While the HRs are fairly well split for Bundy this year, LHBs have a .404 wOBA against him and an xwOBA exactly 100 points higher than RHBs. This gives Jed Lowrie (141 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP this year) and Matt Olson (123 wRC+, .251 ISO) more value, but Matt Chapman (152 wRC+, .275 ISO) and Khris Davis (142 wRC+, .307 ISO) destroy same-handed pitching too. Ramon Laureano (172 wRC+, .328 ISO, 57.8 Hard%) is your small sample superstar and affordable leadoff bat.
Other tagged players: Jed Lowrie, Dylan Bundy, Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis Top projected offense more affordable with absence of top bat
The Red Sox are one of just two teams above five implied runs tonight (5.66) and are nearly a half run ahead of the number two team in the most positive run environment on the board at Fenway. Sam Gaviglio has a rather large platoon split (LHBs .364 wOBA, RHBs .331), which adds value to the bats of Andrew Benintendi (141 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP this season) and MItch Moreland (111 wRC+, .218 ISO), both up one spot in the lineup due to the absence of Mookie Betts. This may make the Boston lineup slightly less efficient, but also less expensive with Ian Kinsler (118 wRC+, .185 ISO) batting second. J.D. Martinez (175 wRC+, .327 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (140 wRC+, .259 ISO) are optimal bats in this lineup as well.
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, JD Martinez, Mitch Moreland, Sam Gaviglio, Xander Bogaerts Daily Bullpen Alert: Rookie pitchers in front of bad pens
No bullpen has a FIP above six over the last month, which means the Nationals (5.58 FIP, 11.8 K-BB%) and Orioles (5.56 FIP, 7.4 K-BB%) have made great strides, but are still the worst two bullpens in the majors by FIP over the last month. Only the Orioles are available, but it’s a prime spot for Oakland bats, the hardest hitting offense in baseball against home run prone Dylan Bundy ahead of the Baltimore bullpen. Three more pens exceed a five FIP over the last month. FanDuel players will have access to the Miami pen (5.41 FIP, 8.9 K-BB%) for game two of their double-header against the Mets with rookie Jeff Brigham, making just his second start. Players from both sites should feel free to attack the Minnesota bullpen (5.11 FIP, 10.6 K-BB%). They are in Kansas City, but starter Stephen Gonsalves has a -9.7 K-BB% with an ERA and estimators all well above seven through four starts. Rookie Austin Gomber (ERA well below estimators) also makes his ninth start against the Dodgers in front of a St Louis bullpen with a 4.88 FIP and 4.9 K-BB% over the last 30 days.
Pitching options are slim and perhaps obvious on Thursday night
Tonight’s MLB slate is either five or six games depending upon site, Pitching options aren’t ideal under either circumstance. Clatyon Kershaw (24.6 K%, 3.29 SIERA, .277 xwOBA) is the top pitcher on the board and the only one exceeding a $10K price tag. In fact, he also exceeds an $11K price tag on both sites. He broke a string of four straight starts with at least seven innings in his last start, but hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in nine straight starts and 15 of 16. Over the last month, he has a .228 xwOBA. St Louis is a small park downgrade for him. The Cardinals are a dangerous offense vs LHP (104 wRC+, 16.8 HR/FB). This should not be enough to scare players off Kershaw, considering the remaining options. As for who to pair him up with on DraftKings, Mike Leake may make the most sense. In fact, there aren’t many other arms, who make much sense. He costs less than $8K on either site and has gone at least six innings in 16 of his last 19 starts. There’s a sure lack of upside in his 15.1 K% against the Angels’ 21.2 K% vs RHP, but both numbers have been rising slightly recently. Leake has a 17.9 K% over the last month. He also has a 50.5 GB% over that 19 starts span. Eduardo Rodriguez (26.1 K%) is perhaps another arm to take a shot with on this board. He’s had one great start (White Sox) and one terrible one (Astros) since returning from the DL. He’s above $8.5K on either site in the most positive run environment on the board (Fenway), though the Blue Jays do have just a 90 wRC+ vs LHP this year.
Other tagged players: Mike Leake, Eduardo Rodriguez Too Cheap For This Power
There is just no reason for Nelson Cruz to ever be this cheap against a bad pitcher. He just keeps hitting home runs and his salary drops for no apparent reason. Odrisamer Despaigne is a low strikeout pitcher with very little chance to get the ball past Cruz and with his team leading .253 ISO. The Mariners should be able to get plenty of runners on base for him, giving him RBI upside even if he doesn’t hit homers, there are plenty of ways for him to pay off this meager salary.
They Are Always In The Outfield
Just two more weeks of Angels In The Outfield puns! Mike Trout is the top play on this slate, play him if you can make it work. But, assuming the salary is too much, we’re back to looking at Kole Calhoun and Justin Upton as the affordable Angels In The You-Know-What. Mike Leake has a terribly low 11.5% K rate to lefties and has shown no ability to limit hard contact. With Calhoun’s 43% hard hits overall against righties and his huge 56% hard hit rate over the past month, this salary is too much of a discount to pass up.
The Top Offense
The Red Sox were a letdown on Thursday night, but this is the highest scoring team in baseball and they have the highest projected run total on this slate. Sam Gaviglio has wide splits with decent skills against righties, so it makes the most sense to start with a cheaper lefty bat, which again leaves us with Mitch Moreland in the middle of the lineup with his too-low salary on FanDuel. He’s in a strong RBI spot and with Gaviglio striking out just 15.5% of lefties, he’ll have the chance to put his .218 ISO to work tonight at a fair salary.
A Great High-End Stack
This could absolutely be a smash spot for the Red Sox against a scuffling arm in Gaviglio, who actually has a higher HR/FB rate than Dylan Bundy this year. That’s saying something. Left-handed bats are tagging him for hard contact 39% of the time, so guys like Benintendi and Moreland top my list here. Naturally, you could play Betts, Bogaerts, or Martinez too, if you like, but it’s hard to fit all of them in a lineup together, so I’ll start with the lefties. My favorite one off is Benintendi, who certainly brings the highest floor to the table tonight with his .309 average, 383 wOBA, and low strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Sam Gaviglio allows a lot of hard contact and home runs, so Benintendi might even have a bigger ceiling in this matchup. Throw in his prime batting order spot for a dangerous Red Sox lineup, and Benintendi is an elite play in all formats this evening.
Lefties in Fenway
The Red Sox have an easy matchup to break down in terms of splits. Sam Gaviglio has held right-handed hitters to a .310 xwOBA with a 53% ground ball rate and a 25% strikeout rate. It’s been a completely different story against lefties, allowing a .377 xwOBA with a 41% ground ball rate and a 15% strikeout rate. The advantage in this matchup clearly goes to the lefties, which brings Mitch Moreland into the mix in all formats. He owns a .409 xwOBA and a .220 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Stacking an Unexciting Offense Against a Bad Pitcher
I know the Royals aren’t the most exciting team to target for DFS purposes, but their primary hitters line up well against a pitcher that is clearly over-matched at the big league level right now. Gonzalves has been nothing short of horrid in every single one of his MLB starts to date, and I wouldn’t expect that to change now. He failed to get out of the third inning in his last start against this same Royals team, so feel free to go back to the well here. Merrifield and Perez are your safer plays, while the likes of Dozier and Bonifacio can offer some salary relief. Again, this offense isn’t exciting, but the Royals have an implied team total of 4.7 runs, and they should find a groove tonight.