DFS Alerts
Price + Matchup + Skill-set
Tyler Anderson has the best combination of price, matchup + skill-set on the slate. The Rockies southpaw is dirt cheap ($6,400 DK; $6,300 FD) and draws a favorable road matchup against the Giants at pitcher friendly AT&T. PlateIQ has the Giants projected lineup with a collective strikeout rate of 22.9% versus LHP and Anderson has done an excellent job generating swings and misses this season with a 11.9 SwStr%. Max Scherzer is the top option on the slate from a raw projection standpoint but his exorbitant price tag may be tough to stomach in a below average road matchup against the Braves.
Only one true Ace on a full 15 game slate
Only Max Scherzer and Masahiro Tanaka exceed $10K on both sites despite a full 15 game slate. Walker Buehler joins them above that price on DraftKings. Scherzer (34.4 K%, 2.71 SIERA, .256 xwOBA) is the top pitcher on nearly every board he’s on. He has double digit strikeouts and at least seven innings in six of his last nine games. He’s facing a contact prone Atlanta team (20.3 K% vs RHP) that does have just a 95 wRC+ vs RHP. He’s struck out 30 of 102 Braves faced this year. Use him, if you can afford him. Masahiro Tanaka (25.2 K%, 3.48 SIERA, .312 xwOBA) struck out 10 Mariners in eight shutout innings in Seattle last time out. He’s gone at least seven innings in three straight starts without allowing a HR. However, that was his first double digit strikeout game of the season and the previous two opponents were the Tigers and White Sox. He’s back at home tonight against the Blue Jays (106 wRC+ vs RHP). However, Toronto does have a team 25.2 K-BB% over the last week. Buehler (27.6 K%, 3.28 SIERA, .279 xwOBA) has gone at least six innings in six of his last eight starts, completing seven innings three times over that stretch, allowing more than two runs only in his last start at Coors. He’s in St Louis (97 wRC+ vs RHP) against an offense with an 18.7 K-BB%, but also 29.2 Hard-Soft% over the last week. While the SP3 on DraftKings, Buehler is only the SP7 on FanDuel ($8.9K), where he would may be a better value than any of the six pitchers priced higher.
Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka, Walker Buehler
Load Em Up Here
The Yankees are the top projected offense tonight with nothing else even remotely close. At full strength, Marco Estrada is a fly ball pitcher to find home runs against, but a tough guy to stack against. However, there are signs that he’s not at his best right now, with talk of back soreness and a drop all the way to 12.7% K over the past month with his walks way up at 11% to go along with his usual 60% fly balls. As long as Andrew McCutchen is back up at the top of the lineup, he is an easy fit on all sites in all formats to get access to this top offense of the night. He has strong plate skills, with a 14.3% walk rate giving him on base upside, and a 44% hard hit rate against righties that gives him plenty of upside on his own against a weak starting pitcher and a bad bullpen.
Nice Value in a Good Matchup at Home
Even though I have some interest in James Shield in tournaments, I have no issue with the Orioles’ offense. With Shields, I’m hoping for six or seven innings, six or seven strikeouts, and a few runs allowed. That’s typically the type of performance that we can expect from him. On the season, he has allowed a .357 xwOBA to lefties and a .364 xwOBA to righties. The fact that he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher bodes well for a ground-ball hitting Orioles’ offense. Trey Mancini benefits from facing a fly-ball pitcher and he boasts a .375 xwOBA and a .185 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
No Shortage of Home Run Upside in New York
The Yankees have plenty of upside tonight against Marco Estrada, but extreme fly-ball pitchers aren’t always the best to stack against. Yes, they allow a lot of home run, but they also get a lot of unproductive fly-ball outs. Rather than a full stack, I will be chasing the home run upside of this offense through mini two-man and three-man stacks. Estrada has some serious reverse-splits this season, holding lefties to a .314 xwOBA while allowing a .384 xwOBA to righties. Giancarlo Stanton mashes fly-ball pitchers and has four home runs in 20 career plate appearances against Estrada.
Potential Ace at Lower Ownership than Scherzer
Tanaka is my favorite pitcher to pay up for tonight, which is incredibly scary given the fact that Max Scherzer is pitching. Tanaka has been solid all season, posting a 3.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 6%. He induces ground balls, he gets a lot of swings and misses, and he’s been dominant against the Blue Jays in his career. Toronto’s current roster has a .285 wOBA with 23 strikeouts in 108 plate appearances. Tanaka is a huge favorite, he’s in good form, and he should have lower ownership than Scherzer.
The Place To Start
The Yankees are the top projected offense tonight with nothing else even remotely close. At full strength, Marco Estrada is a fly ball pitcher to find home runs against, but a tough guy to stack against. However, there are signs that he’s not at his best right now, with talk of back soreness and a drop all the way to 12.7% K over the past month with his walks way up at 11% to go along with his usual 60% fly balls. Gary Sancez is a stand out at the catcher position as he lines up better for power against fly ball pitchers and gains even more value from the team context around him tonight. With his salary, I’m even looking at him as the C/1B on FD if I don’t have the salary to pay up to Anthony Rizzo.
A Risk/Reward High End Stack
Matt Boyd has been a much better pitcher this year and is no longer a guy that we need to go out of the way to pick on, and he is coming off an outstanding start against the Cardinals his last time out. However, he is still a high fly ball pitcher who allows a fair amount of hard contact, and the Indians have one of the most potent lineups in the league. Jose Ramirez has elite splits against lefties, there are plenty of other power spots in the lineup, and the addition of Josh Donaldson makes this group even more dangerous against southpaw arms. The middle of the order stack of Ramirez, Encarnacion, and Donaldson will cost you a pretty penny, but they will also likely have lower ownership tonight than usual, so I like the idea of paying up for these guys as a mini-stack against a hit-or-miss pitcher like Boyd. Fire up this as a medium risk, high reward GPP stack.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson
When The Knight Is Darkest
Things have gotten quite a bit better for Matt Harvey, and he is not the must-attack pitcher that he was earlier this season, but he’s still a guy to play lefties against. There are a couple of elite contact bats at the top of the Cubs lineup that are going to give him all kinds of trouble with his 18.7% K, 43% FB and 40% hard hits to lefties leading to a .356 wOBA and .236 ISO against. Both Anthony Rizzo and Daniel Murphy have strikeout rates under 10% against right-handed pitching with a wOBA of .389 for Rizzo and .369 for Murphy. They both hit line drives and have enough power to hurt Harvey along with all the on base upside. They are strong cash games plays on all sites, with Murphy’s salary standing out on DK/FDRFT and Rizzo being more reachable on FD.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo Don't Be Fooled By His Last Start
Jorge Lopez has been good in his last two starts and somehow came within three outs of a perfect game against this same Twins team in his last outing, but I wouldn’t expect lightning to strike twice. This is still a pitcher with a 17% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate for the year who is allowing hard contact over 43% of the time. He also threw 110 pitches in that last start, and that was the first time he was allowed to eclipse 100 pitches all season. I wonder how he will bounce back for this outing. I’ll happily grab some speculative Twins stacks in GPPs tonight. It starts with Eddie Rosario given his strong splits against RHP, and from there it will just be about grabbing exposure to reasonable prices and batting order spots. Polanco and Cave seem like the most logical point per dollar options to add to your stacks.
Other tagged players: Jake Cave, Jorge Polanco Fire up the Power Bats
We all know the drill with Marco Estrada at this stage – he’s a fly ball pitcher who is definitely prone to the home run ball. His game log since returning from the disabled list at the end of July has also been nothing short of horrendous. Now, he draws a matchup with a power-laden Yankees team that is starting to get healthy. It could be bombs away in this one. We could see six Yankees in the lineup that have ISO marks over .200 against RHP this year, and they are all in play. Stanton seems to be slumping and might not be worth the hefty price, but the likes of Andujar, Sanchez, Gregorius, and McCutchen are very much in play, while whoever draws the start at first base could also be considered as part of a GPP stack. Estrada never used to be a pitcher that we liked to full stack against, but that has changed given his awful recent data.
Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius If You Can't Max Out Your Salary
It is not going to be possible in all lineup builds to get up to Max Scherzer tonight. The next tier is loaded with quality pitchers, and there is not a lot separating most of them. My first preference would be Masahiro Tanaka, but he’s also signficantly more expensive than the likes of Jack Flaherty, Cole Hamels, Jose Berrios and Walker Buehler. I’ll side with Buehler out of this group, as he has shown the best and most consistent skills out of this group. His innings are always a concern, but he’s topped 100 pitches in three of his last six starts and topped 90 in eight of his last nine, so he should be able to get to at least six innings if not seven as long as he continues to pitch at his current level. Since the All-Star Break, he has a 30.1% K rate that is the 3rd highest on this slate along with solid control and a 50% ground ball rate. There is not a negative skill anywhere his skill set to either side of the plate and the matchup is similar in difficulty to anyone else I’d consider in this tier tonight.
The Struggles are Priced In
The bad news is that Archer always seems to be somewhat popular and rarely seems to deliver on his upside. The good news is that his mid-season struggles are certainly priced into his DFS price tag at this point, and he has looked better (though not elite) in his last few starts. Again, those struggles are priced in, his swinging strike rate still gives him plenty of upside, and he draws a matchup against a Brewers team that has the 4th highest strikeout rate in baseball against RHP this year. It’s by no means safe, but the current discount makes Archer my preferred SP #2 choice in GPPs this evening.
Something Cheaper This Way Comes
On DK/FDRFT, if you’re going to try and get up to Max Scherzer, or stack one of the most expensive offenses, you’ll need a cheaper SP2. There are a couple of league average pitchers in favorable matchups that fit the bill tonight. Zach Eflin is at home against the Marlins in a favorable matchup, or we can save even a little more with the Rockies Tyler Anderson going into San Francisco. Everything about Anderson’s skill set is right at league average, 22.4% K, 8.1% K and a 4.21 SIERA. With the loss of bats like McCutchen and Posey, this Giants team just isn’t very imposing against left-handed pitchers, and with the huge ballpark boost in San Francisco, there are a lot of ways for Anderson to reach value tonight.
A Sub-5% Owned Ace with Upside
No DFS player would question the fact that Syndergaard has the potential to be the highest scoring fantasy pitcher on any given slate. No DFS player would question the fact that he’s probably going to be about 5% owned tonight. After all, he took a shot to the rib cage in his last start, he plays for the woeful Mets, and he has to face a very dangerous Red Sox offense that has all kinds of power and limits his strikeout ceiling. With all that being said, there’s reason to consider him in GPP formats. His 21% hard contact rate allowed is one of the best in the league, he doesn’t walk a lot of batters, and he has the potential to shut down any offense, even the mighty Red Sox. His dip in strikeouts this year is certainly a concern, but I can’t avoid listing him as a GPP option. This will be perhaps the lowest owned you will ever see Syndergaard in a DFS contest.