DFS Alerts
Home Run Upside in Baltimore
The A’s see a significant ballpark boost playing in Baltimore, they are facing a pitcher that has given up a ton of home runs, and they are facing a tired bullpen. Once again, this sets up as a great spot to stack the A’s. On the season, Dylan Bundy has allowed a HR/9 over 2.00 to both lefties and righties. In terms of his xwOBA, he has allowed a .396 to lefties. Jed Lowrie and Matt Olson are both elite plays at their respective positions, while the right-handed hitters are best suited as part of a full A’s stack in tournaments.
If I Had To Pick Someone
I’m going to do everything I can to pay up for Kershaw and Rodriguez on this slate. With that said, if you want to save some salary, I don’t mind Brett Anderson against Baltimore. I expect him to have some run support in this game, and Baltimore has really struggled with left-handed pitching this season. Anderson doesn’t have a big strikeout rate, but he does get a lot of groundballs and he doesn’t tend to walk hitters. The projected starters for Baltimore have a .115 ISO with a .281 wOBA and a 27.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Not a ton of upside but I like him a lot more than the other options in this price range.
Best SP2 Available Tonight
Rodriguez has quietly had a very nice season Boston. In 21 starts, he owns a 3.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. He’s improved his control, while maintaining a high soft contact rate. A matchup against the Blue Jays doesn’t look great on paper, but he’s had a ton of success against Toronto in the past. Their current roster has a .259 wOBA with 29 strikeouts in 123 plate appearances. Rodriguez offers a high floor and a high ceiling in this matchup and he’s affordable across the industry.
Lock in this Starting Pitcher
Kershaw is clearly the top pitching option on the board, even though he’s pitching on the road against a right-handed heavy Cardinals’ offense. In 22 starts this season, he owns a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 4%. Those numbers aren’t quite as good as we’ve seen from him over the last few years, but they are the best we have to work with tonight. The key statistic for me is that Kershaw has held righties to a .273 xwOBA on a 52% ground ball rate this season. That should really come in handy tonight.
Take Advantage On FanDuel
If you’re playing on FanDuel tonight, don’t overlook Mitch Moreland at $3,000 in this great matchup. Gaviglio has a .364 wOBA with a .214 ISO and a low 15.5% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season. He’s also allowing a lot of hard contact against left-handed hitters. Moreland has been hit or miss this season, but I do like him against lower strikeout pitchers. He has a .218 ISO with a .500 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The Red Sox have the highest implied team total on the slate, and there is some value to be had with this team on FanDuel.
He's Not as Good as His Surface Numbers Look
Austin Gomber may have great surface stats with a 5-0 record and a 2.93 ERA, but his underlying numbers really don’t support anything of that caliber long-term. His SIERA and xFIP are both more than two runs higher than that, and he’s allowing a ton of hard contact, especially to RHBs. Don’t be afraid to load up on the LAD RH power bats tonight. Machado and Turner are elite plays, while perhaps this is a spot for Brian Dozier to get things going at an affordable price tag. There’s one-off and stack potential with these dangerous bats.
Other tagged players: Justin Turner, Brian Dozier
The Perfect Definition of Boom or Bust
We have a very short slate tonight, and the cheap pitching options are some kind of awful. That leads us to Dylan Bundy, who is generally not great and allows far too many home runs. However, sometimes the BABIP gods can be in his favor, and his strikeout upside dwarfs what you see with some of the other affordable arms. His 12.3% swinging strike rate speaks to his upside, and his SIERA sits right around 4.00, which is much better than his lofty ERA. There is obvious risk here, especially with how many power bats the A’s have, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see Bundy post a top pitching score tonight on a limited slate. That makes him a perfect GPP option.
Top Pitcher on the Board
The Dodgers sit two games behind the Cardinals for the second wild card spot in the National League, so this is the start of a huge four game series. They also sit close to the Rockies in the NL West race. If there was ever a game to give your ace a longer leash, this is it. He has finally gotten his command back, having walked a total of just four batters over his last nine starts, with a 56/4 K/BB ratio in that span. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of those starts, either. He’s pretty much all the way back from injury, and he’s your top pitcher here.
Very Unlucky This Season
It’s been a down season for Kyle Seager, but if you look at the advanced numbers, it really hasn’t been that bad. He’s been very unlucky with a .205 BABIP against right-handed pitching. Seager has a .191 ISO with a .391 CXwOBA and a 39% hard-hit rate. He’s also hitting over 40% of his balls over 95mph against right-handed pitching. In a small sample size, Despaigne has been bad this season, and he’s certainly someone I want to pick on tonight. Since the start of 2017, he has a .365 wOBA with a 13.5% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters.
You Need Two Pitchers
On DK/FDRFT, we are forced to play a second pitcher, and just like Kershaw up top, there’s really only one option. You can throw darts at some of the cheap pitchers tonight, but it’s just a terrible group of arms. The only pitcher past Kershaw with a strong skill set is Eduardo Rodriguez. His 26.1% K rate is the highest on this slate, and while it’s lower against the righties, which all the Blue Jays bats are, he has limited hard contact to just 23% against RHB this season. He gets himself into trouble with high pitch counts at times, but when he’s on, the strikeouts can spike, as they did in his 12-K game against Houston two starts ago. He is not safe, but there is upside, and he’s the clear 2nd best option on this slate.
There's Only One Option
If there’s only one good pitcher on a slate, you just have to play him. The salary hardly matters at all on a slate like this. While Clayton Kershaw is not the same guy as he used to be with the strikeouts, this is still an elite real life ace. We are looking at 12 straight quality starts, a 2.42 ERA and only one start all season allowing more than three runs. Even without his old strikeout ability, he’s still above average with 24.6% K and the always present control along with ground balls and soft contact to righties. There isn’t a huge points per dollar ceiling, but he’s really the only option on this slate, and a must play in cash games, and easily the best tournament option, even at this salary.
Home Runs On The Way
Baltimore’s Dylan Bundy has the highest home run rate of any qualified starter by a huge margin at 2.22 HR/9. Since the All-Star Break, he has allowed an obscene 17 HR and 43 runs in nine starts, with three 3-HR games. He has strikeout ability to right-handed batters, but it drops all the way to 18.1% against lefties, while allowing 47% fly balls, and a .250 ISO to LHB. Olson is the top lefty power bat for Oakland to take advantage of the splits and the ballpark with his 48% hard hits and 46% fly balls leading to a .251 ISO against righties.
Three Days In A Row
I’m probably going to over-extend my welcome here, but I’m playing Jose Miguel Fernandez again tonight. He crushed for us the last two nights, yet he’s still extremely cheap. I want to pay up for pitching tonight, and he’s going to help make that happen. Leake has limited the damage against lefties this season, but he has a very low strikeout rate as well. Fernandez is hitting everything hard right now, and with his low strikeout rate, we have high odds for contact in this matchup.
If You Need To
I recommend trying to pay up at pitcher tonight, but if you need to go cheaper to feel OK about your bats, I would side with Felix Pena at home against the Rangers. Pena has been up and down with the strikeouts this season, but there’s upside in there, especially against righties where he has a 27.8% strikeout rate. He has gotten more stretched out as the season wears on, reaching at leats 90 pitches in five straight starts, allowing 10 starts in 32 innings over that stretch. While the strikeouts have gone up and down, the control has remained solid with a 7.8% walk rate on the season, down to 6.3% over the past month. There is some downside here with the Texas lefty power, but it’s either Pena or Jon Gray in this price range, and I’ll take the guy pitching in Anaheim over the guy pitching in Coors everytime.
Hunter Dozier (back) scratched Wednesday; Ryan O'Hearn replaces
Dozier has been scratched from the Royals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox due to back soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ryan O’Hearn, who will play first base and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Jorge Bonifacio all up to the cleanup spot, while Alcides Escobar, Rosell Herrera, and Brian Goodwin each move up batting position to sixth, seventh, and eighth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Royals order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Carlos Rodon on the road this evening.
As reported by: Jeffrey Flanagan via Twitter Other tagged players: Ryan O'Hearn