DFS Alerts
MVP candidates in a great park against a struggling pitcher
The Tribe is one of those second tier offenses, above five implied runs (5.17), but well behind the three teams above six. There’s nothing second tier about the top of this lineup, especially in an extremely positive run environment, where the first three batters all exceed a 130 wRC+ since last season. Jose Ramirez (181 wRC+, .357 ISO vs RHP this season) is an MVP candidate and perhaps even the favorite right now. Francisco Lindor (127 wRC+, .256 ISO) may be in the conversation too, while Michael Brantley (138 wRC+, .185 ISO) gets to bat in between them. Kyle Gibson is having a career season, but has struggled of late (17.7 K%, 4.81 SIERA, .342 xwOBA last 30 days) and has a tough assignment here. Though LHBs have just a .307 wOBA against him, with a 38.9 Hard% and 42.3 GB%, xwOBA sees that number a .342. In a park that’s very user friendly to batters from that side of the plate, Yonder Alonso (112 wRC+, .215 ISO) allows for more affordable exposure to this lineup.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso, Kyle Gibson
Maybe even a worse punishment than suspension
Three teams are above 5.2 implied runs tonight. All three are also above 6.2 implied runs and the Red Sox are second among that group at 6.33. They’ll face Jose Urena, fresh off suspension and straight to Fenway, who has held RHBs below a .300 wOBA with a 54.6 GB% this year. This is Fenway however, where J.D. Martinez (189 wRC+, .352 ISO vs RHP this season), Mookie Betts (169 wRC+, .268 ISO) and maybe even Xander Bogaerts (140 wRC+, .266 ISO) are high end bats even against quality right-handed pitching. Batters with the platoon advantage have a .326 wOBA (.353 xwOBA) against Urena this year. Andrew Benintendi (145 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (117 wRC+, .231 ISO) are the standard bats there. On top of the extremely positive run environment, the weather report for Boston tonight suggest even more favorable hitting conditions. Play the first five Boston bats as the salary cap will allow.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, Jose Urena Daily Bullpen Alert: Major league debut in front of the league's worst pen
Every bullpen is in play tonight and despite the shutout for the O’s last night, their bullpen is still the worst in the majors by far over the last 30 days (6.30 FIP, 7.0 K-BB%). To make matters worse (or better for daily fantasy players), their starter is making his major league debut and has not exceeded an 18.1 K% since A-ball. Far ahead of the Orioles by FIP (5.40) and K-BB (14%), the Nationals are still the second worst bullpen in the majors over the last month and the only other one above a five FIP. In order to attack them tonight though, players will have to oppose Max Scherzer. Surprisingly, the Mariners are the only other team above a 4.30 FIP (4.88) with a single digit K-BB (9.2%) over the last 30 days. Felix Hernandez is starting too. Only two pitchers on the board with more than 10 starts have averaged fewer outings per start. The Mariners, however, are facing the Padres. Ryne Stanek and Lance Lynn are those two starters averaging fewer innings than Hernandez. Stanek is not a real starter and Lynn has the Yankee bullpen behind him. They’ve fallen to a 3.84 FIP and 17.1 K-BB% in the last 30 days, now that they only have three closers with Chapman on the DL. The White Sox are strikeout prone, but facing a starter with platoon issues in a park that favors LH power. Zach Britton would be your biggest obstacle to rostering someone like Daniel Palka. Brian Johnson and Ariel Jurado have averaged fewer innings than Felix in 10 starts or less. They’re both in tremendously positive run environments in their home parks. The Red Sox have an average pen (4.38 FIP, 13.2 K-BB%), but are facing the Marlins. The Rangers (4.17 FIP, 17.2 K-BB%) have made great improvement recently, but considering the starting pitcher has the highest aEV on the board (92.6 mph) and the park, it’s still a great attack spot for Dodger bats.
The mid-range pitchers whose numbers compare well to higher priced arms
Three starters are above a 30% strikeout rate, four more are above 27% tonight. In fact, eight pitchers are below a .300 xwOBA, the top four of those at or below an 86 mph aEV as well. Most, but not all of those pitchers are above $10K on either one site or the other. Only one pitcher above a 23% strikeout rate is below $10K. Only two below a .300 xwOBA are. One of those pitchers belongs to both groups and pitches in the most negative run environment on the board. Strikeout rate (29.7%) and contact management (30.6% 95+ mph EV, 48.3 GB%, .290 xwOBA) are reasons to like Charlie Morton. Inconsistency and a bout with the Oakland offense (22+ Hard-Soft% on the road and vs RHP) may not be. However, those things and such a wide potential range of outcomes contribute to a price tag below $10K and Morton has shown the upside to compete with the big boys this season. Players may not expect him to put up one of the top lines on this board, but he’s certainly capable of it and that may make him a top value on this board. Not a lot of players are probably thinking about Matt Boyd on this slate either. However, he has a league average strikeout rate (21.9%) and he’s excelled at managing contact (86.4 mph aEV, 4.5% Barrels/BBE) to the point where his .291 xwOBA is seventh best on a star studded board. Despite a positive run environment, he’s in a strong spot against the Royals (15.6 K-BB%, 8.1 HR/FB vs LHP) at a very reasonable cost of $7.6K on either site.
Other tagged players: Matthew Boyd Most Obvious Stack of the Season?
The Dodgers are going to be chalky tonight. They are playing in elite hitting conditions (hot, humid, and a hitter-friendly ballpark), they get to use the DH in this series, and they arguably have the top matchup on the board. This is a situation where we shouldn’t overthink it. Yes, a case can be made for some of the other potent offenses on the schedule tonight, but make no mistake about it, the Dodgers are the top stack of the slate. Ariel Jurado has a minuscule strikeout rate. His saving grace is his high ground ball rate, but that won’t help him against a fly-ball hitting Dodgers’ offense.
Good Matchup in a Good Ballpark
Teheran is one of the top value pitchers available tonight, which is a bit scary given how volatile he has been this season. Overall, he owns a 4.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 11%. Those are far from ideal numbers, but he draws one of the best matchups on the board. The Rays are not only playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but they lose the use of the DH in this series. Tampa Bay’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .305 with a strikeout rate of 23% and that doesn’t even include numbers for the pitcher.
Top pitcher may be the top high priced value as well
On a full slate where you could probably make an argument for more pitchers than you couldn’t, there are four pitchers above $10K on both sites and three more who reach that price point on DraftKings alone. Three starters are above a 30% strikeout rate, four more above 27%, and then there’s Aaron Nola with a 25.6 K%, but 50 GB% and 85.6 mph aEV. In fact, eight pitchers are below a .300 xwOBA, the top four of those at or below an 86 mph aEV as well. Pricing and matchups may be tough, but this board is deep in quality arms. Among the seven highest priced ones, the most expensive of them all, Max Scherzer (34.6 K%, 2.74 SIERA, .259 xwOBA), may also be the best value. He’s in Philadelphia against an improved lineup since the break, but he may still have one of the better matchups among these high priced arms. although power friendly, it’s really a neutral run environment and despite recent improvements, the Phililes still swing and miss more than average (22.7 K% vs RHP last 30 days). The toughest high priced arm to consider may be Walker Buehler. He has completed seven innings in three of his last five starts with a 30.9 SwStr% over that span and is facing an offense with a 24.7 K% vs RHP. However, his 11.3 SwStr% over that span does not fully support such a high strikeout rate and he’s facing this powerful (15 HR/FB at home and vs RHP) strikeout prone offense in Texas. Aaron Nola, Jacob deGrom, Jack Flaherty and Carlos Carrasco are all still worthy of consideration, but all are either in tough matchups and/or parks against more contact prone offenses. Their skill levels still make them likely to prevail at prices that may make them reasonable, but perhaps not exceptional values.
Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola, Carlos Carrasco, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler Power in New York
If the Dodgers are the best power stack of the night the Yankees are an extremely close second. The Yankees will host James Shields and the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night as Giancarlo continues his quest for 300 career HRs. Stanton and the Yankees can’t ask for a much better matchup as Shields has given up 12 HRs over his last six games. New York secondary bats like Neil Walker, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres can be rostered at reasonable price tags which allows you to pay up for pitching or fill out the remainder of your roster with other heavy hitters.
Other tagged players: Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner
Hard Hitting Wind
What do you get when you combine favorable hitting context with an opposing pitcher with one of the highest hard-hit rates on the slate? A good team to stack. If the rain stays away from Wrigley it looks like we’ll have favorable hitting conditions again with warm temps and strong wind blowing out. Except this time the Mets are likely to see much lower ownership than they did on Monday thanks to a full 15-game slate and a tougher matchup. While Cole Hamels does represent a tougher matchup than Jon Lester, it is notable that Hamels is the owner of a 41.4% hard-hit rate this season. Also notable is the fact that Hamels has been poor in terms of stolen base prevention this year – something that can be masked if Contreras is behind the plate but something that will be exploited if Caratini makes a spot start.
Other tagged players: Todd Frazier, Amed Rosario, Michael Conforto Dodgers in Arlington
Oh man. A pitcher that can’t miss bats against one of the most powerful teams in baseball. It’s been a tough stint in the Majors for the Rangers Ariel Jurado as the righty is the owner of a 6.40 ERA (5.35 SIERA) through 32.1 innings pitched. Jurado simply isn’t a good pitcher and opposing hitters are putting hard balls in play at a high rate. Jurado’s the owner of a lowly 3.7 SwStr% and only has a soft-contact rate of 10.1%. Dodger hitters get a huge park boost with this game being played in Arlington and represent the most power upside on the slate.
Mid-tier King
Matt Boyd has been sneaky good this season…well, sneaky good for Matt Boyd. Boyd has pitched like that of a league average pitcher with a 4.30 SIERA and 21.9% strikeout rate which is a marked improvement over career numbers. Perhaps most importantly for Boyd’s DFS prospects on Tuesday is a favorable matchup against the Kansas City Royals at pitcher friendly Kauffman Stadium. The Royals offense has been absolutely atrocious this season as they’re owners of the league’s second worst wRC+ (76) versus LHP and the fourth highest strikeout rate (23.8%). Boyd makes for a strong middle-tier option in GPP’s as he’s $7,600 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Neutral Matchup, No DH
Julio Teheran seems to have corrected course a bit after an extremely rough start to the season. The Braves righty is the owner of a 2.93 ERA over his last five starts and his DK performances have ranged from 12.5 – 26 points. Although Teheran’s advanced run prevention metrics haven’t been as favorable over that span (4.52 xFIP, 4.46 SIERA) he’s had an excellent batted ball profile (28.6 Hard%) and a strong strikeout rate (23.3%). Teheran gets a neutral matchup on Tuesday against the Rays (22.2 K%, 101 wRC+ vs RHP) but Tampa Bay’s offense will be weakened with a pitcher replacing the spot of the DH in their order. Teheran’s value goes up the fewer left handed bats are in the order for the Rays.
High Implied Run Total at Low Ownership
The Red Sox have one of the highest implied run totals on the board, but I don’t expect them to be as chalky as the Dodgers or Yankees. Everyone is going to see the numbers for Jose Urena against right-handed hitters (.294 xwOBA allowed on a 55% ground ball rate) and be hesitant to spend up on the Red Sox righties. I see this as an opportunity to load up on a pitcher that will be outside of his comfort zone. Not only is he facing one of the best offenses in baseball, but he’s doing it on the road in a hitter-friendly American League ballpark. I absolutely love this Red Sox stack, as each of the first five batters in their lineup has a .380+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season — Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts.
Top Projected Pitcher on the Board
Scherzer struck out ten batters the last time he faced the Phillies, although he was out-pitched by Aaron Nola in that start. He gets a crack at revenge tonight, as the two teams square off again in Philadelphia. Scherzer is having another elite season for the Nationals, posting a 2.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35% and a soft contact rate of 25%. There are plenty of strikeouts to be had in this Phillies’ lineup and Scherzer has an amazing track record against this team in his career. If we take salaries out of the equation, Scherzer is the number one pitching option of the slate.
Load Up Here
Of all the positions tonight on FanDuel, shortstop has the least interesting cheap options. In Manny Machado, we are getting an elite skill set at the top of the best offense on the slate at a tough position to fill. There are so many value bats sprinkled around tonight, that we can afford one or two expensive bats, and this is where I would start. As I’ve mentioned with all these Dodgers, Machado hits enough fly balls to offset the lone skill of Ariel Jurado, and in this ballpark, the scary low strikeouts are going to lead to all kinds of baserunner on both sides of Machado tonight. He can do the damage on his own with power, or he can gain the upside from the team context around him. Or both.
