DFS Alerts
Attackable Pitcher, High End Offense
The Yankees didn’t get things done last night, but will get another chance to attack a beatable pitcher in ideal hitting conditions tonight. Reynaldo Lopez has a terrible 15.9% K rate with 11.4% BB to lefties along with 52% fly balls allowed. That is going to lead to baserunners and power upside for this Yankees lineup. Aaron Hicks will be in the middle of the lineup with both run scoring and RBI chances, and he has the power to do damage on his own, and the on base ability to benefit from the overall team context here tonight.
High Upside Righties
The top of the Dodgers lineup is filled with high upside right-handed bats against the hard hit fly balls of Mike Minor. Minor is not a bad pitcher, and not easy to stack against, but he throws a lot of strikes and doesn’t control batted balls to righties. There is a lot of power up and down this lineup. My top choices would be Justin Turner and Manny Machado, but Brian Dozier leads off, saves some salary and plays a tougher position to fill on this slate. He makes solid contact, gets on base at a .362 clip against lefties and though the ISO is down this season, he has a history of power against lefties.
Targeting the Red Hot... Orioles?
It seems very strange that the Orioles are rolling at the plate right now, but here we are. They have scored 19 runs over the past two games and draw a fine matchup here against a mediocre arm in Ryan Borucki. Trey Mancini has been absolutely dialed in of late and would be my first target against a weak lefty, while Jones and Villar check in as fine options at the top of the order. If Craig Gentry grabs the #2 spot again tonight, you could fire him up as a potential value. This isn’t an exciting offense, but they are reasonably priced, are seeing the ball well right now, and have a great matchup. We can ride the wave for one more game, at least.
Other tagged players: Adam Jones, Jonathan Villar
A Great Matchup for Lefty Power
Matt Harvey has oddly been decent of late, but much of that can be attributed to some good fortune on balls in play. His batted ball profile is still fairly ugly, especially against left-handed batters. Lefties have tagged him for a hefty 41% hard contact rate this year, and the ground balls drop significantly for Harvey. It’s only a matter of time before some lefty power bats do damage against him, and this might be a spot to buy in on an opposing offense at lower GPP ownership than you would expect. Mike Moustakas is the most cost-controlled play of the MIL lefties, while Christian Yelich has been raking with ten home runs this month — including two last night. Fire up all the LHBs with confidence here as a mini-GPP stack.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw Not an Exciting Offense, But a Great Matchup for Low-Owned Goodness
The Twins are never an exciting team to stack. Their overall offensive numbers for the year are underwhelming. That’s the bad news. The good news is that this means we can almost always get them at low ownership, they are better against RHP, and they are facing a weak RHP tonight in Adam Plutko. The Cleveland right-hander has underwhelming stuff and a SIERA and xFIP over 5.00 for the year. The Twins also carry a little more danger in their lineup with the boom/bust power bat of Miguel Sano back in the mix. Eddie Rosario has the best overall numbers against RHP this year and would be my first overall target, while you can add the likes of Mauer or Polanco to your GPP stacks. Don’t sleep on the Twins this evening.
Other tagged players: Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano Not Much To See Tonight
The pitching is not pretty tonight, and there are no sure fire aces on the mound, and nobody to feel completely confident in. It’s going to be a spread the risk night in tournaments, but I’ll start with Zack Godley as my first look in all formats tonight. He’s had a couple bad starts, but the strikeouts have remained high, at 27.2% since the All-Star Break and while he’s had a couple sightings of the high walks, for the most part, they have stayed in check as well with a 6.7% BB rate in those last 41 innings. He has strikeout ability to righties and ground balls to lefties and gets a trip to the best pitchers park in the league to face a Giants team with below average power and above average strikeouts from tonight’s projected lineup.
A Soft Landing Spot
The results haven’t exactly been there for Godley over his last few starts, but I am still encouraged by the peripherals. He has a 43/8 K/BB ratio over his last six outings, and the bad ones have mainly been the result of bad BABIP luck. Tonight’s matchup is a great one against a weak-hitting Giants team in a pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. It’s a great spot for him to get back on track, and his 3.82 xFIP suggests that improvement is ahead. He’s a fine option on a slate that doesn’t offer much for arms.
Searching for Upside on a Thin Slate for Arms
We don’t have much in the way of high-end pitching tonight, but the good news is that it means we don’t have to pay through the roof in terms of salary dollars for our arms. Peralta has very much been hit-or-miss in his first major league season, but the upside is undeniable. He owns a 30.4% strikeout rate for the year, which is one of the best marks in the league. The issue, as always, with him is command. As long as he keeps the walks in check, he should be fine. He fired seven shutout innings against this same Reds team in his last start, and he carries the highest upside on this slate.
One dangerous spot in the evening forecast
The weather forecast for this evening has been updated and includes one concerning spot along with favorable hitting conditions in several parks tonight. The full report is available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers will receive further updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Contact prone offense against a pitcher struggling to miss bats and induce weak contact
Jacob Nix has struck out just seven of 55 major league batters faced so far and has allowed 8.8% Barrels/BBE. The Mariners contact prone team sending four batters above a 120 wRC+ against RHP against him, including Denard Span (123 wRC+, .174 ISO) and Robinson Cano (123 wRC+, .154 ISO). Mitch Haniger (139 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (141 wRC+, .254 ISO) add quite a bit of pop and both have a wRC+ above 220 over the last week. San Diego is quite the negative run environment, but the Mariners have a chance to score some runs here.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Denard Span, Jacob Nix Isolated top bat in this lineup
The Cardinals are a predominantly RH lineup, facing a pitcher who is much better against RHP in a negative run environment, but with conditions a bit more conducive to hitting than they usually are. This is a spot where Matt Carpenter (155 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP this season) alone is a top overall bat against Ivan Nova (LHBs .352 wOBA, .382 xwOBA this season). The Cardinals do have an implied run line of 4.51 and are fairly cheap with Tyler O’Neill (113 wRC+, .224 ISO) the only other batter above $4K on DraftKings. They’re not terrible values against Nova under improved conditions, but RHBs have just a .308 wOBA against him this season.
Other tagged players: Tyler O'Neill, Ivan Nova Breaking the scale with just about everything heavily favoring this offense
The Dodgers. Yes. This is the team you want. They are in Texas, facing a pitcher with a .399 xwOBA and 92.6 mph aEV over six starts and have broken the scale with a run line of 6.69. Ariel Jurado has allowed fewer than four runs only in two starts, one in the most negative run environment in baseball and the other against the Orioles. Literally, USE – EVERY – SINGLE – DODGER! Brian Dozier (94 wRC+, .199 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup below a 110 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Justin Turner (127 wRC+, .178 ISO) has the lowest ISO. Dozier, Cody Bellinger (132 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Joc Pederson (143 wRC+, .299 ISO) are the only Dodgers below a 140 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Brian Dozier, Ariel Jurado A 161 team wRC+ last seven days and a struggling pitcher
Edwin Jackson has shown some dangerous signs of morphing into…well, Edwin Jackson recently. Over his last two starts, both at home, he’s allowed four HRs with five walks and just four strikeouts (44 BF). One of those starts was against these Astros with the two HRs the only runs he allowed. It’s actually a slight park upgrade to the most negative run environment on the board, but xwOBA is having none of Jackson’s actual numbers this year. It drags a sub-.300 wOBA for batters from both sides up over 60 points to above .350 for both sides. Alex Bregman (149 wRC+, 231 ISO vs RHP this season) has become the top bat in this lineup. Jose Altuve (154 wRC+, .144 ISO) is still doing it, but with less power. Tyler White (166 wRC+, .309 ISO) has been a small sample superstar. This is a lineup that’s been hitting very well lately. They have a major league leading team 161 wRC+ over the last week. Carlos Correa is the only batter in the lineup with more than 10 PAs over the last week (George Springer excluded) below a 135 wRC+ over that span. Despite the environment, the Astros are top five with a 5.17 implied run line tonight.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Tyler White, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Edwin Jackson Large platoon splits could justify exposure to both sides of this matchup at a low price
The run line for the Brewers is sitting right around five runs. Anthony DeSclafani is a HR prone pitcher (17 in 14 starts) with a league average strikeout rate (20.8%), who has major platoon issues (LHBs .360 wOBA this season) in a power boosting park. The Brewers have three of those and all three have power: Christian Yelich (137 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP this year), Travis Shaw (132 wRC+, .287 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (116 wRC+, .241 ISO). These are three playable and even high end bats tonight. However, the Brewers also have five RHBs plus the pitcher in the order and also have a 25 K% vs RHP. DeSclafani has held same-handed batters to a .281 wOBA with a 48.6 GB% and 16.8 K-BB%. Three of those RHBs are below a .110 ISO vs RHP. DeSclafani had gone three straight starts of at least seven innings without a HR allowed prior to his last time out at Wrigley. He doesn’t need to do too much to pay off at $7K.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas Not the usual names, but still really good
It may not be all the names that you’re used to, but nobody is surprised that the Yankees are one of three teams well ahead of the pack with a 6.23 run line at home against James Shields. Deep Game James usually gets his six innings in, but they’re not always quality innings. In fact, it’s an advantage to hitters that should get three cracks against him, when they have an xwOBA above .350 from either side of the plate this year. After Brett Gardner (96 wRC+, .140 ISO), the next five batters in the order all have at least a .190 ISO with a wRC+ above 115 against RHP this year. Luke Voit has a 341 wRC+ with three HRs in 19 PAs over the last week and costs just $300 above the minimum on FanDuel ($3.7K on DK) in the middle of this order.
Other tagged players: Brett Gardner, James Shields