DFS Alerts
Catch The Best
It is not a necessity to pay up at catcher tonight, especially in cash games, but at this position, Yasmani Grandal is such a stand out that he deserves to be in his own tier. The Dodgers are the top offense of the night, adding all kinds of RBI and run scoring upside to the individual talent that Grandal already has. Like all these Dodgers, Grandal has the fly ball ability to offset the ground balls from Jurado with a .253 ISO and .372 wOBA on 38% hard hits and 43% fly balls.
The Leftover High Upside Offense
The Red Sox are in line with the Dodgers and Red Sox as the high end offenses tonight, though likely to fall behind those other two due to the pricing. However, on FanDuel, Mitch Moreland comes in at a great value in the middle of this lineup. Jose Urena is a weaker pitcher against lefties to begin with, so to get this savings on a lefty power hitter batting in between all the elite Red Sox outfielders is too good to pass up. On DK/FDRFT, Moreland is not as great of a value, but he is still the bat I would try to get in order to be in play with this offense.
Saving In A Great Spot
Along with the Dodgers and Red Sox, the Yankees join the fray as a team with endless upside at home against James Shields. Of course, play Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks if you can, but Neil Walker gives us some very affordable exposure to the middle of this Yankees lineup. Against Shields, he has the patience to take a walk if Shields has his usual control issues to lefties, and with his lineup spot, he’s also likely to get up with runners on base where his solid hard hit and line drive ability give him RBI upside. He also has the switch hitting edge when they get into this beatable bullpen.
The Place To Start
There are three teams on top of the list tonight with team totals above six runs, but it starts with the Dodgers travelling to Texas. They get a huge park upgrade, a DH spot and face the lowest strikeout pitcher in all of baseball. Ariel Jurado has just an 8.5% K rate while allowing 45% hard hits in his first six career starts. His only skill is a moderate ground ball ability, but the Dodgers can open with seven batters above a 41% fly ball rate. Every Dodgers bat is playable in every format, but let’s start with Joc Pederson leading off with his .298 ISO and .384 wOBA against righties. He is ridiculously underpriced on FD, and fairly priced on DK/FDRFT.
FanDuel Price Is Too Low
I love the Dodgers tonight, though I’d expect them to be popular in this spot. Joc Pederson really stands out to me on FanDuel at this 3.1k price tag. He’s a little cold at the plate, but he profiles as one of the top hitters on this slate. Jurado is a sinker baller that works down in the zone a lot, and his sinker has a .7% swinging strike rate this season. I’d recommend looking at Joc’s heat graph on PlateIQ for low pitches and notice that he has a .423 wOBA with a .259 ISO against sinkers since the start of last season. He’s a top overall play, not just a top value play, at this price on FanDuel tonight.
Hot Bats in Hot Weather
The Dodgers offense found its groove in their recent series against the Padres, scoring 23 runs in their past 3 games. Now they get to pick up a DH and head to one of the most hitter friendly environments in baseball, as they travel to Globe Life Park to take on the Rangers and the slate’s worst pitcher in Ariel Jurado. Two of Jurado’s most eye-popping statistics show his complete inability to miss bats, as he currently sports an 8.5 K% and 3.7 SS%. Max Muncy and Joc Pederson profile as the best options as they both have over a .380 wOBA and .900 OPS vs RHP, and Jurado allows a massive .431 wOBA to lefties. That said, Jurado struggles against both sides of the plate, so the entire Dodgers lineup is in play. They are priced-up for the matchup so a stack may be difficult, but get as much exposure as you can to a powerful Dodgers lineup that is guaranteed 9 innings of offense in the Texas heat.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal, Cody Bellinger
The Affordable Mid-Tier
Just as we have multiple strong options at the top, we have a mid-tier with plenty of options. I expect Lance Lynn and Julio Teheran to get the most attention tonight in their matchup with the White Sox and Rays, but I am not a fan of their walks or their inconsistency. If the weather holds up in Kansas City, I would prefer to side with either Jake Junis or Matt Boyd. My preference is with Boyd, as a fly ball pitcher in a good park facing a Royals team with virtaully no power against lefties. Boyd has walked just 3.6% of batters in 42 innings since the All-Star Break, and if he’s not giving up free passes, the .116 ISO and 26.1% K rate from this Royals lineup will have a hard time doing much damage here.
Upside Is Everywhere, Play The Matchups
There is so much pitching tonight, every tier has upside. After Scherzer/deGrom up top, we’re looking at a group of Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Nola, Charlie Morton and Jack Flaherty coming in next. While none of them have ideal matchups, Carrasco facing the Twins has the best mix of skills and opposition. The strong 28% K rate from Carrasco is up to 31.3% since the All-Star Break and the strong 4.9% walk rate is down to 3.4%. His skills are equally strong to both right and left-handed batters, and while the 21% K rate and .326 wOBA from the Twins projected lineup is not bad, it’s weaker than what any of the other pitchers in this tier will see tonight. If you’re not able to get up to Scherzer, Carrasco is my next look as an SP1.
Play The Best Player
Pitching is loaded tonight, and loaded in all pricing tiers. With expensive bats to love as well, there is not going to be a must-play pitcher tonight. But, let’s not pretend like Max Scherzer isn’t the best option by a wide margin. I love Jacob deGrom, but he’s in Wrigley Field with a lower strikeout rate to begin with. In Scherzer, we’re getting both the highest floor and the highest ceiling from his 34.6% K rate that is a stand out even on a loaded slate. If you can find a way to afford him, play him on all sites in all formats.
Don't Throw Him The Cutter
I’ve respected what James Shields has been able to do this season, but I’m going to attack him in this spot tonight. He’s a massive fly ball pitcher, and he’s pitching in a very friendly hitters ballpark tonight. Neil Walker has moved up in the lineup for the Yankees, and he’s in a great spot tonight. Walker has a .304 wOBA with a .366 xwOBA and a .131 ISO with a .209 xISO against right-handed pitching this season. His advanced stats look a lot better than his regular stats on the season. Shields throws his cutter about 24% of the time, and since 2016, Walker has a .433 wOBA with a .306 ISO against cutters.
Don't Forget About This Guy
Ivan Nova has struggled badly with left-handed hitters, and with a pickup of Matt Adams, the Cardinals added another left-handed bat worth playing. Adams has a .269 ISO with a .373 wOBA and a 48.2% fly ball rate against right-handed pitching this season, while Nova has a .355 wOBA with a .218 ISO and a 11.3% strikeout rate against lefties in 2018. With the mix of low strikeouts and hard contact, Adams is one of my favorite plays on this slate. I would guess he hits fourth or fifth tonight against Nova, and with all of these righties, he may see Nova three times in this spot.
A Mid-Priced Arm in a Great Matchup
Lance Lynn has somewhat struggled in his past two outings, but finds himself in a great position to get back on track tonight pitching at home against the White Sox. The White Sox strike out at a 25.5% clip against RHP, the second-highest rate on the slate. Three weeks ago in his first start as a Yankee, Lynn had his best start of the season against this same White Sox squad, going 7 innings with 9 K’s, 0 ER, and only 2 hits allowed. Lynn is also a huge favorite in this game, as the Yankees offense gets to feast on James Shields, so picking up the win is likely. While Tanaka didn’t pan out as well as many hoped last night, I’m willing to go right back to the well on a RHP against the White Sox and use the savings Lynn provides to afford some big bats on tonight’s slate.
It's A Price/Matchup Play
I’ve talked a lot this season about picking on Felix Hernandez, and he continues to struggle with left-handed hitters. With that said, it’s hard to overlook the price and the matchup for him tonight. The Padres don’t have a lot of left-handed power bats to take advantage of Hernandez’s weakness this season. He has a .330 wOBA with a .134 ISO and a 53.5% groundball rate against right-handed hitters. He doesn’t have a ton of strikeout stuff anymore, but the Padres projected starters have a 24.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. He’s not a safe play by any means, but like I said, it’s hard to overlook this price on a slate where we have a ton of hitting options to pay up for.
Profiles Really Well In This Matchup
It’s been an up and down season for Matt Boyd, but he draws a great matchup against the Royals tonight. Boyd has a .298 wOBA against lefties and a .285 wOBA with a .135 ISO against right-handed hitters this season. His strikeout rate and walk rate is better against lefties, but he continues to get a lot of soft contact against righties and his ISO is .135 against right-handed hitters this season. What people don’t realize about the Royals, they’re one of the worst teams in baseball against fastballs this season. On top of that, the projected starters since 2016 don’t have anyone that has a wOBA over .285 or an ISO over .200 against sliders. Boyd throws his fastball around 33% and his slider around 30%. He profiles really well against this team, and he’s one of my favorite value plays on this slate.
Affordable infield bat
San Francisco is a tough park to hit in and the Diamondbacks have just a 4.27 implied run line tonight, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Chris Stratton this year. Eduardo Escobar (139 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) just seems to cheap in this spot at $4.2K. He’s around $1K less than Paul Goldschmidt (132 wRC+, .231 ISO) and David Peralta (146 wRC+, .246 ISO).
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Chris Stratton