DFS Alerts
Great Points Per Dollar Upside
Deck McGuire has an underwhelming set of data in the minor leagues this year, a 6.12 ERA in 11 big league appearances in 2018, below average strikeout stuff, and poor command. Outside of that, everything is great! This is a spot start in place of Tyler Skaggs, and the Indians should feast in this one. I’ve tagged Michael Brantley as a core play on FanDuel because of his affordable price. Ramirez, Lindor, Alonso, Encanracion, and Brantley all own wOBA marks above .340 against RHP this year. Fire them up today.
A Great Value if He Starts
If you do decide to play some Baltimore bats, I will prioritize Danny Valencia, Tim Beckham, and Jonathan Villar, likely in that order. All three should be hitting in the top four spots in the batting order, and they have the best splits on the team against LHP this year. I’ve tagged Valencia as a core value today with his .372 wOBA and .208 ISO against lefties this year, and he’s also the only one of the three with a sub-$4,000 price tag on DraftKings.
Your Top SP #2 Choice
Pitchers against the Mets are gaining a ton of traction these days, but I always prefer LHP against this team. However, I understand the logic behind Teheran in this spot. His strikeouts have ticked upward to right at league average, the price tag is reasonable, and he will likely see six righties. Two of the lefties aren’t all that dangerous, either, with Conforto scuffling this year and McNeil not being a great hitter. As long as he can get through Nimmo without a ton of damage, Teheran is a top point per dollar pitching option today. Yes, that’s where we stand on this ugly pitching slate.
Clearly Today's Top Arm
If you are looking for a safe ace to use as your SP #1 today, Nola is pretty much the only choice on the board. Tanner Roark is the second most expensive pitching option on DraftKings and FantasyDraft today. Jon Gray and Danny Duffy are your second and third most expensive pitching options on FanDuel. This isn’t meant to be a jab at those guys, but that tells you all you need to know about how many top-tier pitchers we have throwing the ball today.
Elite Marks Against LHP
Jon Lester is about as over-rated as it gets, and regression has started to catch up to him a bit. His 3.22 ERA is belied by a 4.77 SIERA and 4.70 xFIP, his strikeouts are down to just 18.8% this year, and his walks are up over 9%. That is his lowest strikeout mark since 2008 and his highest walk rate since his rookie season. The Padres are also a decent offense against left-handed pitching, sending plenty of right-handed power to the plate. That sets up very well given today’s weather. Christian Villanueva has cooled since a hot start to the year, but he’s still been very good against lefties with a .460 wOBA, .422 ISO, and 1.114 OPS against southpaws for the year. He’s a core value for me today.
Wind Blowing Out at Wrigley
The Cubs have been surprisingly weak against left-handed pitching this year — especially when you take Kris Bryant out of the lineup. However, they remain a great team to target today with the wind blowing out at Wrigley. Javier Baez should be your first choice from this team, as he owns the top non-Bryant splits with a .370 wOBA and .255 ISO against lefties for the season. He’s my top bat on the entire slate, especially for tournaments. The other RH power bats like Ian Happ and Willson Contreras are also fine picks, and I don’t even mind throwing the lefties in as part of a GPP stack. It’s very possible that Lucchesi won’t be long for this game.
Rookie Doing His Best Mike Trout Impression
The Angels will be without Mike Trout again, shifting Shohei Ohtani to the third spot of the order. Shane Bieber has been fantastic against righties this season and will face five of them today, but he’s struggled against lefties to the tune of a .340 average and .975 OPS. This puts Ohtani firmly in-play today. I don’t love an Angels stack outside of large-field GPPs since the other lefties in this Angels lineup aren’t very appealing, but Ohtani is the bat I have the most interest in given Bieber’s struggles against lefties.
Four Straight?
Gallo isn’t available on the FanDuel slate but you should continue to roster his insane power (.300 ISO vs RHP) on DraftKings. Joey has hit a HR in three straight games and once again has a favorable matchup on Sunday against Yefry Ramirez and a poor Orioles bullpen. This game may go a little overlooked with all the Wrigley wind hype but you’ll want to make sure you have some exposure to Baltimore and Texas bats in your DK lineups.
Lefty on Lefty Crime
This is a PSA to not worry about the platoon advantage when rostering Cubbies. The Padres offer the cheap, more aesthetically pleasing bats in this projected wind game which could provide us with some discounted ownership on the home team. We don’t have a big sample size to work with but early indications are that Luchessi may be more of a neutral splits, if not reverse splits, pitcher. Luchessi’s awkward delivery combined with his pitch mix don’t appear to discriminate based on opponents handedness. Throw in the fact that Rizzo is a skilled offensive threat against LHP (112 wRC+, .179 ISO) and I love the thought that he may see low-ish ownership simply because he doesn’t have the platoon advantage.
Navigate the Splits
Attacking this terrible Mets offense is going to be a continued theme the remainder of the year as their lineup more closely resembles a AAA roster as the season progresses. Teheran and his wide platoon splits will have to navigate around Nimmo, Conforto, and to a lesser extent Jeff McNeil, but it should be smooth sailing for the Braves righty after that. Figuring out this secondary tier and specifically an SP2 for multi-starting pitcher sites is a difficult task on Sunday but Teheran is shaping up to be the guy that I pencil in as my second starter. For comparison, I like Teheran over the Duffy and Flaherty’s of the world.
Cheap Power
Dating back to 2000, games played at Wrigley Field in 90 degree temps with 14+ mph winds blowing out saw a 105.15% increase in HRs and a 31.46% increase in total runs. You’re going to want to do everything you can do to jam in hitters from this game into your lineup and Renfroe is the most cost effective option. Renfroe also has shown an elite offensive skill-set versus LHP throughout the course of his short career (158 wRC+, .317 ISO) and gives you a ton of power upside in this spot.
Righty Dominance
Nola doesn’t have much competition for SP1 on Sunday as the Phillies host the Marlins. Nola is easily the most skilled pitcher on Sunday’s slate and he has put up some strong numbers this year including a 3.50 SIERA, 25.7 K%, 11.6 SwStr% to go along with an elite batted ball profile (24.9 Hard%, 50.7 GB%). The Phillies righty has been especially dominant against the same hand this season (.225 wOBA, 2.78 xFIP, 28.1 K%) which sets him up well for success against a righty-heavy Marlins lineup.
A Decent Hitter in a Trash Lineup
This Royals lineup is a lot like Dairy Queen. Most of it is trash, but they’ve got a few things that are actually decent (if any of you like anything but the Blizzards or Orange Julius at DQ then your dead to me). In any case, back to the point of this which is to say that Duda isn’t that bad. Duda owns a very good .259 ISO and .361 wOBA vs. RHP and he draws a matchup vs. Ervin Santana. Santana has been trash this year in his limited work (over a 7 xFIP) and wasn’t great last year either. He’s facing Duda in a much better hitters ballpark than KC and the weather conditions should be favorable. Save some money and play Duda who should come in at low ownership considering the lack of desire for people to stack the Royals.
A Catcher with Big HR upside
Hedges is too darn cheap and should be batting 2nd in a great spot. The winds are blowing out at Wrigley and he draws a matchup vs. Lester. Lester is giving up a whole lot of hard contact this year to righties and jthere is a high chance that either him or the bullpen end up giving up an HR to Hedges. On the year, Hedges owns a 44.4% hard hit rate and owns a decent .159 ISO. When you take all these and factor in that he plays a tough position and is priced at the bare bones rate of just 3K on DK then you have a perfect situation. Play him and move on.
Huge Platoon Split 3rd Baseman
I think we’re getting to the point in Villanueva’s career that we can accept that he’s good vs. lefties. On the year, Villanueva owns ridiculous .422 ISO and .461 wOBA vs. LHP. He draws a matchup vs. Lester who isn’t the same pitcher he used to be. He’s giving up a bunch of hard contact (36.6%) and a decent amount of FB’s (38.1%) vs. righties and the winds should be blowing out in Wrigley. At this moment, we don’t have a line for the game, but with these conditions it should be high and Villanueva should be a big factor.