DFS Alerts
A Great Cheap GPP Pitcher
Bieber has been pretty bad at times, but he’s been pretty good at times. In 4 of his 9 career starts he has eclipsed the 20 DK point mark and he draws a matchup against the Angels who may be without Trout. On the year, Bieber has a 23% K rate and is walking guys at a sub 5% clip. The one problem he does have is that he gives up a lot of hard contact. With this watered down LAA lineup, Bieber has some huge upside if he lands on the right side of HR/FB variance. Take a shot with him at this price and hope he has one of his good outings.
A Gascan That's Gonna Crush It
Look, there isn’t much about Shields numbers that should really tell you to play him. He gives up a lot of HR’s, he doesn’t have a great K rate or walk rate, and he gives up a lot of fly balls, but he has been pitching pretty well lately. In his last four starts he has gotten 18+ DK points 3 times. He draws a matchup against the Rays in TB (which is a decent pitchers park) and their projected lineup has decent K upside (22% K rate in the projected lineup) and with HR’s being the bigget problem, you shouldn’t expect many with only 2 guys with an ISO above .120. This could go terrible wrong, but his price is low and so should his ownership. Play him an pray if you’ve got the balls.
The Cardinals announced during the 1st inning that Tyler O'Neill (groin) has been scratched from Saturday's lineup; Jose Martinez replaces
O’Neill is a late scratch from the St. Louis Cardinals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates due to right groin discomfort. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jose Martinez, who will right field and slot directly into O’Neill’s vacated fifth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Cardinals lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Ivan Nova on the road this evening.
As reported by: Jennifer Langosch via Twitter Other tagged players: Jose Martinez
Mark Canha (illness) scratched Saturday; Ramon Laureano replaces
Canha has been scratched from the Athletics original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ramon Laureano, who will play center field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Jonathan Lucroy up two spots to seventh, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Athletics order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Jordan Zimmermann at home this evening.
As reported by: Martin Gallegos via Twitter Other tagged players: Ramon Laureano A Cheap Lefty Masher
I know that this Bal lineup has been up in down for the last few weeks (or months), but one of the constants has been Valencia mashing lefties. Since 2017, Valencia owns a .198 ISO and .366 wOBA. He draws a matchup against Minor who has been less than spectacular this year. Vs. righties, a crazy amount of FB’s (46%) and hard contact (41.2%) and is only striking out guys at a 20% clip. With the weather conditions being so great today in Arlington (around 95 degrees) its all but a garuntee that Valencia is going to crush his price tag.
A Cheap Power Bat
Guzman doesn’t have a incredible amount of power, but he is in the perfect spot to get an HR today. He is playing in one of the best ballparks for power and its going to be crazy hot (around 95 degrees). He gets a matchup vs. Bundy who has been much better and in almost every single category vs. righties over the last 2 years. Since 2017, Bundy has only a 18% K rate while giving up a crazy high 48% FB rate and 38.3% hard hit rate to lefties. Everything sets up for Guzman to have a big outing and with him likely batting 7th in the lineup, he should come in at low ownership.
Perpetually Underpriced Bat
I don’t know why, but DK just seems to refuse to increase Beltre’s price. He’s sitting at way to look of a price tag (3.7k on DK) considering he’s playing in one of the best hitting environments on the slate (it’s 94 degrees in Arlington) and he’s batting in the middle of the lineup. On the year, Beltre’s numbers haven’t been fantastic vs. RHP (.120 ISO and .317) but he has a long history of being better. He draws a matchup against Bundy who has been an up and down pitcher all year, but with his huge FB rate (46.6%) and hard contact rate (34.5%) he is prone to HR’s. Add in that BAL has the 3rd worse bullpen in the league and you got a perfect senario for Beltre to crush value.
High Upside Cheap Pitcher
Suarez is a decent pitcher who’s numbers don’t entirely reflect how good he’s actually been. Suarez has basically been at the whim of HR/FB variance this year due to the large amount of hard contact he’s given up this year (40.4%). He draws a matchup on the road, where he has done significantly worse, but since the humidor has been put in, Arizona has been a good park for pitchers. Suarez has a slightly above average K rate (21%) and xFIP (3.65) and draw a matchup against a tough ARI team, but with 3 of ARI’s best bats being lefties (Peralta, Jay, and Lamb who is out for season), this ARI lineup should be watered down. Nothing about this matchup says that Suarez should do bad and with his price being one of the cheapest on the slate, he should absolutely crush value.
A Perfect Cheap GPP Pitcher
Over the last few months Zimmerman has been really hit or miss. His DK scores have ranged anywhere from -3 to 40. On the year he owns a slightly above average 4.00 xFIP and a 22.6% K rate. He draws a matchup againt the A’s, which although they are a dangerous offense, they are playing in a stadium which is great for reducing offense and HR’s (giving up the deep ball is by far Zimmermans worst problem). If Zimmerman can stay on the right side of HR variance, then he has some real upside in this matchup.
Going Back to Arlington
We are entering the third consecutive main slate where much of your cash game lineup is going to be composed of the BAL/TEX game. Gallo’s price tag finally increased on FanDuel but only $300 to $3,000 locking him in as a must play cash game play once again. The lefty slugger will be looking for his third HR of the series on Saturday and gets a great matchup to do it against Dylan Bundy who is allowing 2.09 HR/9 and has a crazy high 17.1% HR/FB. Bundy has some Jekyll and Hyde tendencies to him so I don’t mind avoiding Texas bats in GPPs but guys like Gallo, Choo, and Odor (on FD) will be a staple of my cash game lineups.
Braves Debut
Gausman makes his Braves debut on Saturday night and steps into a favorable matchup against a Mets squad that has been poor against right handed pitching all season (93 wRC+) and whose lineup consists of a mix of washed up players and barely AAA level talents. Gausman should benefit greatly from the shift to an NL squad and I would expect his mostly league average numbers so far this season (4.14 SIERA, 19.5 K%) to improve the rest of the way. The new Braves righty is my favorite SP2 option of the slate.
A Cheap SP2 With Upside
Ivan Nova isn’t a name that is ever exciting to roster, but his biggest weakness is left handed bats, and the Cardinals hardly have any to throw at him. With the exception of Matt Carpenter (who is in a great spot), the Cardinals will roll out almost all righties, especially after Dexter Fowler broke his foot yesterday. The Cardinals strike out at a significant 22.1% clip vs RHP, and Nova rarely allows big innings thanks to his excellent 4.5% BB rate. Though a HR from Carpenter is likely, at only 5.6K on DraftKings, Nova is an affordable SP2 that should reach value and has some strikeout upside in a favorable home matchup against the Cardinals.
Good Lineup Spot, Big Discount
Logan Forsythe made his debut start for the Twins on Friday night and hit fifth. Should he see a similar lineup spot on Saturday night he’s one of the top pt/$ plays on the entire slate as he is min price on FanDuel ($2,000) and just $2,900 on DraftKings. Villar is likely to garner more ownership on each site but Forsythe offers a big enough discount that he’s my preferred cash game play at the position if not paying up for the red hot Rougned Odor.
The Top Stack Yet Again
It appears the Texas heat wave finally warmed up the Rangers bats as well, to the tune of 28 runs scored in the first two games of their series against Baltimore. They again have the highest Vegas-implied team total on tonight’s slate, and there is no reason not to continue to ride the hot hands. Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo have both been on fire as of late, combining for 7 hits, 4 HRs, and 11 RBis in the past two games. They profile well against Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a .402 wOBA to LHH. It is worth noting that Bundy does tend to shut down RHH, so stick with the lefties as they will likely be the source of fireworks for a streaking Rangers offense.
Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Shin-soo Choo Improved But Exploitable
You’ll need to keep a close eye on lineups as there’s a chance Harper gets a rest for Game 2 of the Reds/Nats double-header but he’s my favorite play of the main slate provided he’s in the lineup. Harper has come out of the All-Star Break on a tear and he’s had three multi-hit games in a row heading into Saturday’s Game 1. Matt Harvey has shown vast improvement as a member of the Cincinnati Reds but this is still a matchup Harper can take advantage of.