DFS Alerts

Load Up In The Heat

Both sides of this A’s-Rangers game have loads of bats to love tonight. My first preference is Rangers left-handed power against Frankie Montas, with his 13.7% K and 43% hard hits allowed. Rougned Odor continues to scorch the earth with nine hits in the last four days and having brought his average up 45 points in the past month. For the season, he has a 40% hard hit rate and 45% fly balls against righties and his moderate strikeout issues are muted by the low strikeouts of his opponent.

Great Matchup To Attack

Eric Lauer hasn’t been great this season, but his price and matchup make up for where he’s been lacking. On DraftKings and FantasyDraft he’s priced at the minimum against the league’s worst offense versus left-handed pitching. They’re ranked 30th in team wOBA against lefties, and they have the highest strikeout percentage as a team against lefties.

Lauer allows a lot of hard contact and walks, which is certainly concerning when playing him, but you just need five to six innings with some strikeouts and no more than three runs allowed at this price. He’s been able to limit the ISO to both righties and lefties, and he has a 21.3% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. I’m not playing him for his ceiling here; I’m playing him because of the point per dollar opportunity in this matchup.

Load Up In The Heat

The Oakland-Texas game jumps ahead of Coors Field as the spot to target tonight with two attackable pitchers in the near 100-degree heat. Oakland’s Frankie Montas has a frighteningly low 13.7% strikeout rate to left-handed batters while allowing 41% hard hits with no ground ball ability. Shin-Soo Choo has strong on base skills along with power from the top of the lineup with his 47% hard hits leading to a .247 ISO and .414 wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Skills, Matchup, Savings

This is a standout salary on DK/FDRFT for a pretty good pitcher at home against the Padres. Wheeler leads all major league starters in soft contact to right-handed batters and has above average strikeouts to left-handed batters. San Diego has six batters in their projected lineup with strikeout rates above 23% against right-handed pitching, giving him plenty of points per dollar upside. He has thrown seven innings in three of his last five starts and has at least seven strikeouts in five of his last six. He’s too cheap for this matchup and a strong play in all formats. With Paxton being scratched, Wheeler becomes a strong play on FD as well, though not an all-in type of play there, where I recommend spreading out your exposure to a few pitchers tonight, but with Wheeler at the top of the list.

Discount Ace

There is some measure of concern with James Paxton having missed 12 days after a back injury, but all reports are that he is good to go, and even if somewhat limited, we are getting a huge discount for his skill set in a favorable matchup. The other four pitchers up top all have far tougher assignments tonight and Paxton may well be the most talented one to begin with. His 32.2% strikeout rate ranks 2nd on this slate, and his 6.9% walks are the lowest of any of the pitchers with a K% above 25%. He has been efficient, reaching seven innings nine times in his last 14 starts and faces a Giants team that is below average in most offensive categories against left-handed pitching.

Avisail Garcia (illness) scratched Monday; Leury Garcia replaces

Garcia has been scratched from the White Sox original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Angels due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Leury Garcia, who will play right field and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Daniel Palka and Matt Davidson up one batting position to fourth and fifth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this White Sox order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Jaime Barria on the road this evening.

Rare west coast game with an extremely high implied run line

Most of the west coast parks are firmly negative run environments, which makes it a surprise when a team playing in one of those parks exceeds five implied runs. Yet, this is the situation the Angels (5.23) find themselves in and it speaks volumes about Lucas Giolito. A 17 K%, 5.20 SIERA and .361 xwOBA over the last 30 days are all great improvements over his season numbers to illustrate how bad he’s been. He hasn’t been terrible against RHBs since last season (.314), but the xwOBA is 21 points higher. LHBs tattoo him for ,351 wOBA and .389 xwOBA, making Kole Calhoun (93 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Shohei Ohtani (179 wRC+, .296 ISO) are attractive, though considering cost and lineup spot, the latter is much more appealing on FanDuel, where he’s nearly $2K less. Mike Trout (181 wRC+, .303 ISO) is never a poor choice if affordable. Justin Upton (128 wRC+, .233 ISO) is more moderately priced.

Start of Monday's PIT-CLE game will be delayed due to rain

The start of the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Indians on Monday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Indians have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Corey Kluber not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, a late postponement cannot be entirely ruled out, though it also shouldn’t be classified as the likeliest outcome.

Still some threats on the board in Monday's updated forecast

The higher risk games aren’t necessarily the same ones from the early forecast, but there are still some threats in Kevin’s updated weather report. Players can read the entire forecast on the Weather page. Premium subscribers get updates from Kevin through lock on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.

Seven above average bats with power in a power friendly environment

With the addition of Manny Machado (137 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), tonight’s Dodger lineup has a wRC+ above 110 and ISO above .190 through the first seven batters and Chase Utley (89 wRC+, .115 ISO), well, he has narrative. Zach Eflin has been good, but not great (24 K%, 3.66 SIERA) and the Dodgers have a run line of just 4.38, but this is a potent lineup with a park upgrade tonight.

Increasing run line against a terrible bullpen

The Tigers have suddenly shot up the board and now have a top five implied run line (5.34) in Kansas City tonight. The Royals are throwing a bullpen game and that bullpen is terrible (4.83 FIP, 3.7 K-BB% last 30 days). Heath Fillmyer has been used mostly out of the pen for the Royals (multiple innings each time) and has a -1.5 K-BB% in 15.2 innings, while not being that much more impressive in 13 AAA starts (6.2 K-BB%). The Tigers have just three competent bats against RHP over the last calendar year: Leonys Martin (108 wRC+, .159 ISO), Nick Castellanos (115 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Jeimer Candelario (109 wRC+, .188 ISO). All three are in the top half of the order at a low cost on FanDuel. Nobody else in the lineup is above an 80 wRC+ or .150 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year.

Quality left-handed bats can take advantage of a large platoon split in a positive run environment

They’re not very cheap (except for Eaton on FanDuel) and only have an implied run line of 4.52, but left-handed Washington bats are in a great spot in Milwaukee tonight. They get a park upgrade and face Jhoulys Chacin, against whom LHBs have a .340 wOBA (.356 xwOBA) since last season. Adam Eaton (149 wRC+, .104 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Bryce Harper (114 wRC+, .273 ISO) and Juan Soto (139 wRC+, .195 ISO) are bats of interest here.

Large disconnect between recent results and peripherals, but terrible spot

The Oakland A’s bring a dangerous lineup to Texas tonight, where they have a 5.16 implied run line (fourth best) against Cole Hamels, who has a 16 SwStr%, .313 xwOBA and 3.49 SIERA over the last month, but just a 20 K% and 9.53 ERA. The park does him no favors and RHBs do have a .331 wOBA (.349 xwOBA) against him since last season. The A’s send eight against him from that side. Marcus Semien (87 wRC+, .166 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has some value in the leadoff spot, but Chad Pinder (136 wRC+, .187 ISO) costs $600 less on FanDuel right behind him. Matt Chapman (127 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Mark Canha (135 wRC+, .281 ISO) have actually been the top bats against southpaws by the metrics despite batting in the bottom third of the lineup. Khris Davis (107 wRC+, .239 ISO) is the only other batter above a .200 ISO against lefties over the last calendar year and has three career HRs vs Hamels in 22 PAs.

Potent lineup, struggling pitcher and an extremely positive run environment

The Rangers have one of the highest run lines on the board (5.34) in the top run environment against a struggling pitcher. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Brett Anderson in limited work since last season. Joey Gallo is not in this lineup, but Shin-Soo Choo (105 wRC+, .084 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Rougned Odor (65 wRC+, .146 ISO) lead off this lineup. No other batter among the first eight is below a 120 wRC+ or .194 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. The thing to note here though, is that the A’s have been one of the top bullpens in the game over the last month (3.35 FIP and 17 K-BB%) and Anderson hasn’t gone very deep into starts. This in itself is probably not enough of a reason to limit exposure to Texas bats in a great park.

Lefty-masher without much support in the leadoff spot

It’s not often the the lineup for the Royals comes close to five implied runs, but they send up eight right-handed batters against Francisco Liriano, who has allowed righties a .369 wOBA since last season. Whit Merrifield (162 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the prize here. In fact, the only other batter in the lineup above a 90 wRC+ against LHP over the last calendar year is the light hitting shortstop, who should never be named in a daily fantasy setting. Salvador Perez (67 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Jorge Bonifacio (88 wRC+, .173 ISO) do have some low cost upside in the top half of the lineup though.