DFS Alerts

Low priced power in the leadoff spot

Adalberto Mejia has enjoyed some success at AAA this seaon (15.8 K-BB%), but major league batters from either side of the plate are within three points of a .350 wOBA against him for his major league career. While the Blue Jays only have three batters above a 100 wRC+ against LHP over the last calendar year, they have six above a .190 wRC+ against them. Teoscar Hernandez (115 wRC+, .306 ISO) is the most dangerous bat in the lineup, but Randal Grichuk (70 wRC+, .191 ISO) has some upside in the leadoff spot for less than $4K. The Blue Jays have a 4.95 implied run line that’s currently sixth on the board.

The Yankees will be facing the Tampa Bay bullpen today (3.97 FIP, 11.6 K-BB% over the last 30 days) with Hunter Wood garnering “opening” duties. The park downgrade pushes the Yankee lineup all the way down to 4.82 implied runs tonight. Each of the first eight batters in the order are at or above a 100 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year with Brett Gardner (117 wRC+, ,165 ISO) the only one below a .185 ISO. This is a dangerous lineup no matter who Tampa Bay throws at them with Aaron Judge (164 wRC+, .321 ISO) the top prize here.

Affordable cleanup bat for top projected offense

Trevor Williams does not generate a lot of hard contact (85.8 mph aEV), but still somehow allows a lot of Barrels/BBE (8.1%) and is in a horrific spot with a substantial park downgrade in Cleveland tonight. The Indians top the board with 5.42 implied runs against the low strikeout pitcher (17.1%) and three batters who destroy RHP at the top of the lineup. Francisco Lindor (138 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (136 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (167 wRC+, .328 ISO) are rarely poor choices at home if affordable. Yandy Diaz (115 wRC+, .102 ISO) is the interesting bat in the cleanup spot at a low price. He hits the ball hard, but usually on the ground (58.3 career GB%). Yonder Alonso (123 wRC+, .185 ISO) is a reasonable first base choice.

Lots of HRs and few strikeouts against a dangerous offense

Kevin Gausman has just a 12.8 K% over the last month (though a 9.7 SwStr%) and has allowed 19 HRs in as many starts this season. That’s bad news with the Red Sox coming to town. The Sox retain an implied run line above five (5.14) away from Fenway, but in another positive run environment that may even be more power friendly. The issue with rostering Boston batters, as usual, is the stars and scrubs nature of the lineup with the more competent and expensive bats at the top of the order. It’s Mookie Betts (137 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Andrew Benintendi (143 wRC+, .209 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (179 wRC+, .387 ISO) who you’re interested in with a possible side of Mitch Moreland (117 wRC+, .239 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (113 wRC+, .209 ISO). Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA just above .340 against Gausman since last season.

Major league debut for fly ball pitcher in a tough park

Daniel Poncedeleon makes his major league debut in a difficult park against an offense that doesn’t offer much upside. The 26 year-old is not much of a prospect, but does have a 26.3 K% in 17 AAA starts this season. He also has a 12.3 BB% and has not otherwise been above a 21 K% since low A ball in 2014. Another thing to note is that the rise in his minor league strikeout rate has come with a sacrifice in ground balls. Always above 40% previously, he’s dropped down a 29.8 GB% this season. Poncedeleon is cheap and could have the benefit of being unknown, but Vegas is siding heavily with the Reds (4.84 runs) in a dangerous park against a pitcher who is suddenly fly ball prone. The Reds have just three threats against RHP. They are Joey Votto (168 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Eugenio Suarez (127 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Jesse Winker (150 wRC+, .182 ISO), though without a ton of power. Brandon Dixon has a 57 wRC+ in 35 PAs so far, but had a 168 wRC+ with a 223 ISO at AAA this season and costs just $3K on DK or the minimum on FD.

Perfect matchup? Red hot bat against HR prone pitcher with platoon issue in a power friendly park

The Cardinals offer a lineup of competent bats against RHP, but only one player above a .200 ISO against them over the last calendar year. Luis Castillo has been a HR machine this season, but has allowed just one over his last four starts, three on the road and the one at home against the White Sox however. Considering that LHBs have a .334 wOBA against Castillo for his career and are above .380 this year with RHBs much lower (around .300), this one is very obvious. The hottest batter in baseball is Matt Carpenter (148 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who has a 482 wRC+ and six HRs over the last week. The obvious issue here would be an exploding price tag, but he’s one of the top bats on the board in a power friendly park if the cap space is available.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Multiple team bullpen days.

Five teams are starting a pitcher who has accumulated fewer than three career starts, two of which have one and two more without a single major league start. Of the five, only the famous explorer Daniel Poncedeleon, who is making his major league debut, can be considered a starter. Heath Fillmeyer, Hunter Wood, Luis Santos and Luke Farrell are all relievers who may not even make it past three innings. Bullpens for those starters include the Royals (4.83 FIP, 3.7 K-BB% last 30 days), Rays (3.97, 11.6%), Blue Jays (3.96, 19.7%), and Cubs (4.95, 10.3%). One of those bullpens has been surprisingly weak over the last month, one surprisingly strong, but players know the attack spot is generally Kansas City, but that would require utilizing Detroit bats. Attacking the Cubs would require Arizona bats with an 82 wRC+ and 24.5 K% vs RHP, but with Pollock and Souza recently back in the mix. Three bullpens are above a five FIP over the last month, but there are problems there too. The Indians (5.87, 15.2%) have a nice K-BB rate and have recently added a couple of big arms. The Mets (5.47, 8%) are starting deGrom against the Padres. The Angels (5.06, 10.4%) could see some action with Jaime Barria averaging just five innings per start this year, but the matchup is with the White Sox in a tough park. One other bullpen to acknowledge is Oakland with Brett Anderson in a tough park and averaging less than five innings in his six starts, but they have a team 3.35 FIP and 17 K-BB% over the last 30 days and added Jeurys Familia over the weekend.

Lower priced pitchers are risky too tonight

With every high end pitcher carrying either some weather or personal risk, paying down may be a choice for some players. However, lower priced pitchers seem more a complement to higher end guys on DK than strong stand alone options with the one exception possibly being Jaime Barria, who costs $5.9K on FanDuel and much more on DraftKings. Barria is a marginal pitcher at best (19.1 K%, 4.44 SIERA) and even has the highest aEV on the board (89.9 mph). However, he has a great matchup against an offense with a 19 K-BB% both on the road and vs RHP in a great home park. Jose Urena is coming off one of his worst outings of the season, but has a reasonable 19.9 K% for the season and a .285 xwOBA that’s 43 points lower than his actual mark over the last month. The Braves have just a 20.3 K% vs RHP, but also just a 93 wRC+ and 10.5 HR/FB. Urena costs less than $7K in a great park. The recently added Joey Lucchesi has gone beyond five innings by just a single out once since returning from the DL (five starts) with around a league average strikeout rate over that span. Not what you’re looking for out of an $8K pitcher, but the Mets have a 77 wRC+, 26.1 K%, and 8.3 HR/FB vs LHP and may be down Cespedes again in a pitcher’s park. High risk/low cost options include Luis Castillo (18.7 K% with a 14 SwStr% over the last month) at home against the Cardinals and Sean Newcomb, who’s hard contact rate is up, ground ball rate is down and has struck out more than three in just one of his last five starts, but is facing the Marlins (78 wRC+, 8.1 HR/FB vs LHP) in a top park.

Every high end pitcher carries some form of risk

A few hours ago, the easy (and likely most popular) thing to do was load up on either Jacob deGrom (vs San Diego) and/or Ross Stripling (in Philadelphia) and pair them with a $4K Eric Lauer if playing on DraftKings. Lauer has been scratched and replaced with a pitcher double his price tag (still left-handed though), while these are two of the three spots Kevin has serious concerns about in his forecast. Both are in such high upside spots against offenses that strike out more than 25% of the time vs RHP (only two other teams have a 25+ K% split today, one of them the Mets), deGrom in one of the top parks on the board. Removing the starts before and after his DL stint, he’s struck out fewer than seven in a game just once since April 10th, failing to complete seven innings just twice in that span. Stripling has a decreased 26.1 K% since the beginning of June (eight starts), but that’s still a great mark against a 1.5 BB%. He has allowed seven HRs over that span, but has completed six innings in six of those starts with more than two runs just twice. They are two of the top contact managers on the board as well. No other regular starter on the board has an xwOBA within 30 points of either of them this year. Pay attention to Kevin’s update later because these are the two pitchers you want. Additional high end pitchers may all have some issues attached. Corey Kluber has been receiving treatment on an ailing knee and has allowed six runs in two of his last four starts, while facing an offense with just a 19.3 K% vs RHP in one of the most positive run environments on the board. Luis Severino has a 22.3 K% over the last month. His velocity has been up and down over the last couple of months. His hard hit rate has been above 40% in each of his last two starts with his ground ball rate just 39.7% over his last 13. He does get a park upgrade against a marginal Rays offense that’s not very dangerous and obviously has the talent to put up some great numbers, but he costs $1K more than any other DK pitcher. Patrick Corbin has struck out just 20 of his last 94 batters, but has a 10.9 SwStr% low over those four starts and has been above 13% in each of the other three. The matchup is a concern for him at Wrigley (Cubs 8.6 K-BB% at home, 11.6 K-BB% vs LHP).

Take Advantage On FanDuel

If you’re playing on FanDuel tonight, there is no reason not to have Shohei Ohtani in your cash lineups. Since returning from the DL he has been hit or miss, but he looked really good at the plate this weekend against Houston and draws an excellent matchup tonight. On top of that, he’s just way underpriced on FanDuel. Ohtani has a .296 ISO with a .420 wOBA and a .533 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season, along with an impressive 47.1% hard-hit rate and a 93.9 average exit velocity. Giolito continues to struggle at the Major League level and comes in with a .379 wOBA and a .213 ISO against left-handed hitters. He also has a very low strikeout rate against left-handed hitters.

Attacking Bad Pitchers

We don’t have a ton of value options on this slate tonight, so I’m mostly just attacking the bad pitchers. Solarte has increased his ISO from the right side of the plate, and the Blue Jays continue to hit him second against left-handed pitching. Adalberto Mejia has been pitching decently in AAA this season, but he really struggled when he was called up last season. In 370 PAs against righties, he had a .351 wOBA with a .176 ISO and an 18.6% strikeout rate. I like some of the Blue Jays righties, but Solarte is a nice value option at this price.

Nice Value Option Hitting Second

I don’t ever play Delino DeShields, but he makes a lot of sense tonight, and I’m more attacking the pitcher than the hitter in Texas tonight. Anderson has struggled with righties since coming back and was awful against them last season too. Since the start of 2017, he has a .371 wOBA with a .188 ISO and a 14.8% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. DeShields has a .327 wOBA with a .133 ISO and a 23.6% strikeout rate. Nothing great here, but he’s cheap and should hit second tonight. It’s also extremely hot in Texas, and the Rangers have the highest implied total on the slate.

High Risk/Reward

When looking for upside at pitcher tonight, Luis Castillo is a high risk/reward play. Castillo has been really good against righties but continues to struggle with left-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Carpenter is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, and hopefully Castillo only gives up a solo homer to him. The other lefties in this lineup are struggling this season and don’t concern me enough not to take the risk. Castillo has a .298 wOBA with a .160 ISO and a 22.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. The upside is against the heart of this Cardinals order, but it’s always risky when you’re getting your upside against the better part of the lineup. If you’re looking to spend down, Castillo is one of the few option with a lot of strikeout potential.

Power Stack

I am not sure if I want weather issues in Philly to be bad enough to keep Dodgers ownership down, or if I just want a PPD to remove this game from the slate entirely. You guys know the drill – in GPPs we want to chase power, and boy do the Dodgers have a ton of it. Zach Eflin has had a good season thus far but this is just a terrible spot for the young righty against a Dodgers offensive juggernaut that added Manny Machado over the ASB. The Dodgers own the second highest wRC+ (111) versus RHP this season and the fourth highest ISO (.192). Already a hitter’s park, Citizen’s Bank projects to have 10+ mph winds blowing out to left field on Monday night, providing an even bigger power boost.

It Looks Like He's Going To Be Low Owned

Sean Newcomb continues to be a reverse split pitcher and draws a great matchup against the right-handed heavy Miami Marlins tonight. They should have seven righties plus the pitcher spot tonight. Newcomb is one of my favorite plays on the slate and should be a really good point per dollar play. He has a .286 wOBA with a .105 ISO and a 6.3% hard to soft contact ratio against right-handed hitters this season. He’s pitched well against this team twice already this season and receives the ballpark upgrade in this spot tonight. The Marlins projected starters have a .099 ISO with a .293 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.