DFS Alerts
Cheap Power From A Top Offense
Alex Cobb is one of the worst pitchers on the slate. Cobb is giving up a .378 wOBA and .235 ISO against rightes and a .389 wOBA and .223 ISO against lefties. The Twins are one of the top offenses to target on today’s slate and targeting a cheap power bat like Morrison will allow you to get the spend up options that you want.
A Fine Value Bat in a Good Batting Order Slot
If you are searching for value, keep an eye on the Rays lineup today. They all come relatively cheap, and they have a favorable matchup against Chris Flexen, who has yet to show anything at the MLB level. The problem is that they don’t make sense as a stack, because the main benefit of stacking Rays would be that they allow you to spend up at pitcher… and we don’t have any pitchers to spend up for today. I prefer simply looking at one-off value here. Matt Duffy is my favorite, since he remains very affordable and will likely grab the #2 batting order spot, which gives him the potential of seeing five at-bats in a road game. While Duffy is nothing special, he’s affordable at $3,000 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings, and he does lead the team with a .357 wOBA and .823 OPS against RHP this season. It’s not sexy, but it’s solid value in a good matchup.
A Great Matchup for the Power Bats
The Red Sox continue to rake, and they have put up double figures in runs in each of the last two games of this weekend series against the Royals. I wouldn’t expect that to slow down today against a struggling hurler in Jakob Junis, who has lost seven straight starts and has allowed the most home runs in the league this season. He has allowed 24 long balls, earning him the dubious honor of league leader by two over Bartolo Colon. That’s not a good sign with the Red Sox on tap. Junis has been largely splits-neutral this year, allowing hard contact and homers to hitters from each side of the plate. Let salary and positional availability with your roster construction be your guide here. I will highlight Mitch Moreland as a core target in LineupHQ because of his power potential and reasonable price tag, but that wouldn’t stop me from rostering the likes of Betts, Martinez, and others if I have the salary available.
An Under-Rated Top Bat
This is a great matchup for the underrated hitter in Rosario, as Alex Cobb has allowed a .389 wOBA and 36% hard contact rate to left-handed bats this season. Rosario has done his thing in his own right, posting a .405 wOBA and .964 OPS against RHP. He will also go under-owned on such a big slate for offense, making him a great play in both cash game and tournament formats. I love the combination of his skill set, the matchup, and likely reduced ownership here.
A Fine Value or SP #2 Selection
German is probably the safer of the two rising stars that I like today, and his profile also shows a mix of good and bad. Walks have been a bit of an issue for him as well, though not to the extent of Newcomb. In his brief major league career, German has also posted an impressive 32.3% strikeout rate against right-handed batters, which isn’t something that can generally be touched by other pitchers on today’s slate. Toronto will likely only have three left-handed hitters in their lineup today, so the potential for upside is definitely there. However, when German has allowed contact to RHBs, they are hitting him hard. As with Newcomb, there’s risk here, but he carries more viability because of how ugly the slate is for pitching.
Your Top Sunday Arm
This feels gross, but Keuchel has to be considered as the top arm this afternoon. Remember all those aces that we have seen on the mound over the last two days? It would be nice to see some of them today! Keuchel is coming off a solid performance against the Rangers in his last start, gets plenty of ground balls, and draws everyone’s favorite matchup against the White Sox. Keuchel does a great job of avoiding hard contact, and it’s hard to envision the White Sox causing him much trouble. Chicago owns the league’s highest strikeout rate against LHP, giving Keuchel some added upside today. I put almost zero stock into umpire data, but word on the street is that there is a very favorable pitchers’ umpire behind the plate today, so that adds another feather into Keuchel’s cap. There’s plenty of reasons to like him given the context of this slate.
Wei-Yin Chen still has a 1.8% K-BB% and 6.02 xFIP versus RHB, even with positive results in last two starts
Chen is in search of a third straight quality start as he takes the mound in a road outing against the Washington Nationals on Saturday night, but he’s generally pitched poorly outside a couple of outlier outings, as evidenced by a 5.55 ERA and an inability to make it past the fifth inning in over half of his 2018 appearances. Chen has been absolutely shelled in several of those starts, and those shellackings are still currently reflected in his 5.11 xFIP and 4.99 SIERA, numbers that appear to be well-deserved considering Chen has been relatively on par with his career averages with a .301 BABIP and 68.8% left-on-base-percentage thus far. A large majority of his troubles are stemming from significant control issues (9.1% BB%) that had initially led him to walk more batters than he struck for a brief stretch after being activated from the disabled list, and on top of that, both right-handed and left-handed hitters have combined to generate hard contact 35.5% of the time, which becomes a recipe for disaster when combined with a 42.4% fly ball rate and uninspiring 16.7% strikeout rate. The lack of command to batters on both sides of the plate makes this Nationals offense an intriguing one to target in all formats, especially with a lineup chock full of capable right-handed bats and two elite talents in Juan Soto and Bryce Harper swinging from the left-side of the plate. Even though Washington has consistently been a frustrating team to play, Anthony Rendon (47.4% HH%, 0.628 xwOBA, 0.233 ISO vs LHP) remains the obvious top option of any Nationals hitter given his strong splits against left-handed pitching, but he’s closely followed by Soto (40.6% HH%, 0.457 xwOBA, 0.341 ISO vs LHP) and Harper (0.440 xwOBA, 0.190 ISO vs LHP), both of whom may be overlooked by the masses due to the absence of a platoon advantage, despite their own promising numbers against lefties this season. Then, just a tier below, Trea Turner (0.408 xwOBA vs LHP), Mark Reynolds (39.3% HH%, 0.413 xwOBA vs LHP), and Michael Taylor (40.4% HH%, 0.383 xwOBA vs LHP) are all perfectly fine options as members of a stack to round out lineups in large-field tournament formats this evening.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Michael A. Taylor, Mark Reynolds, Wei-Yin Chen
A Solid Step Down from Scherzer
If you put the pitchers on a projected points per dollar basis tonight, I think you can make a legitimate case for Stripling as the top option. His last couple starts haven’t been his best, but that just goes to show the high standard that has quickly been established for him. The only real negative tonight is a matchup against a relatively potent Angels offense, but I’ll side with the budding ace. Stripling has held hitters from each side of the plate to a sub-.295 wOBA, and he owns a 29% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate on the season. When you combine that with a 2.80 SIERA and 2.73 xFIP, his profile matches up almost identically with one Corey Kluber — who we will gladly pay a premium for most of the time. Stripling is very reasonably priced at $8,600 on FanDuel and $9,900 on DraftKings, and he’s a great option in all formats this evening.
The Obvious Top Arm
If you are debating using hitters from the Marlins this evening, you might want to re-evaluate and simply take the night off. Sure, there’s merit to using game theory to endorse a Scherzer fade, but no amount of drunken stupor could make me recommend using bats against him, much less when those would be bats from the 2018 version of the Marlins. Scherzer owns a 2.46 SIERA, a 37% strikeout rate, and gets to face said Marlins tonight. He’s the top pitcher by a wide margin this evening. Find a way to play the man.
Necessary Value
If you are trying to pay up for your pitchers tonight, you’ll need some “unsexy” value, and Bonifacio fits that bill. He’s hitting 2nd against David Price, who has been struggling quite a bit of late. Give Bonifacio a long look as a value now that he is back in the mix for the Royals. He offers a little more upside and the potential for five plate appearances, which we can’t say for a lot of the other low-end value on the board on this short four-game slate.
A Fine Value Play
The Diamondbacks probably hold the key as the biggest boom-or-bust spot tonight, as they have been a boom-or-bust group for much of the year and draw a matchup against a similarly up and down pitcher in Tyson Ross. Ross has done a great job against right-handed hitters this year, but he has his struggles against lefties. He has allowed LHBs to post a .369 wOBA and 40% hard contact rate this year, and his line drive rate skyrockets to 29% against lefties. Arizona will have at least four lefties in their lineup tonight, so they do match up well against Ross here. Daniel Descalso grades out as the best value with his 16% walk rate against RHP to go along with a 211 ISO and .353 wOBA, while David Peralta and Jake Lamb always offer power upside.
Top Play from a High End Offense
Deck McGuire has bounced around several minor league levels and teams over the course of his career, and he doesn’t profile as anything special at the major league level. That’s especially true given tonight’s matchup against the scorching hot Dodgers. All the Dodgers are very much in play here, but I will highlight Justin Turner as my favorite on a points-per-dollar basis. In his small 2018 sample, McGuire has allowed a wOBA over .550 to right-handed bats, and Turner has a more favorable price tag than some of his teammates. As of the time I am writing this, he also has our highest premium PlateIQ score of the night.
Trevor Story (sore foot) scratched Saturday
Story has been scratched from the Colorado Rockies original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Saturday’s matchup with the Seattle Mariners due to a right foot contusion. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Gerardo Parr, who will play left field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Ian Desmond, Chris Iannetta, Carlos Gonzalez, and Patrick Valaika all up one batting position, respectively, while Valaika will also shift over to shortstop defensively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Rockies order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander James Paxton on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Nick Groke via Twitter Ryan Braun scratched Saturday: Hernan Perez replaces
Braun has been scratched from the Milwaukee Brewers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Atlanta Braves due to tightness in his right side. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Hernan Perez, who will play left field and slot directly into Brauns’ vacated fifth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Brewers lineup does stay intact as they face off against right-hander Anibal Sanchez at home this afternoon.
As reported by: the Milwaukee Brewers via Twitter Willy Adames (illness) scratched Saturday; Johnny Field replaces
Adames has been scratched from the Tampa Bay Rays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the New York Mets due to an unspecified illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Johnny Field, who will play left field and slot directly into Adames’ vacated eighth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Rays lineup does stay intact as they face off against left-hander Steven Matz on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Marc Topkin via Twitter