DFS Alerts

Attacking the Righties in Arizona

The Diamondbacks have an easy matchup to break down. Eric Lauer has been tough on left-handed hitters, but has allowed a .369 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. He has a high fly-ball rate, which bodes well for the upside of these right-handed batters. Nick Ahmed (.329 xwOBA), Paul Goldschmidt (.485 xwOBA), A.J. Pollock (.372 xwOBA), and John Ryan Murphy (.407 xwOBA) have all hit southpaws well this season.

Path of Least Resistance at SP2

You know pitching is thin when Hellickson is one of the best SP2 options of the slate. It’s nothing personal, we just typically have more choices at our disposal. While he didn’t look great in his first start back from a hamstring injury, he threw 98 pitches. He’s had a nice season as a whole, posting a 3.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 4%. The real reason to target Hellickson isn’t his form, it’s his matchup against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has a .295 xwOBA and a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Clear Ace of the Slate

Verlander has looked more human-like in his last two starts, but still owns a 3.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% this season. He’s the clear ace of the slate. He’s by far the most talented and he draws the best matchup on the board, which is a lethal combination. He’s a -300 favorite against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. With no viable pivots, we may have to hit the lock button on Verlander.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Heavy bullpen workloads likely, but few favorable spots

With only two starters (Justin Verlander, Marco Gonzales) with more than five starts, averaging anything close to six innings to start, it’s likely that most bullpens in play with be active tonight. This works well enough because Houston and Seattle aren’t really pens players want to mess much with anyway. The Tigers (5.64 FIP, 8.6 K-BB%) are the absolute worst pen on the board over the last 30 days, but Matt Boyd has averaged the third most innings per start among those with more than five. The Angels (5.28 FIP, 15.8 K-BB%) are the only other team above a five FIP, but with the eighth best K-BB over that span. The Orioles (4.34 FIP, 6.4 K-BB%) have the second lowest K-BB over the last 30 days and Andrew Cashner has, surprisingly, completed six innings in four of his last five starts. It seems unfortunate, but it’s really difficult to find a great spot in which players will be able to attack a weak bullpen for more than a couple of innings. The Giants (2.87 FIP, 14.4 K-BB%) are the only active team other than Houston with a FIP below three over the last 30 days and will likely be active early with Johnny Cueto just returning from the DL. Their K-BB is perfectly middle of the board, but they are able to prevent HRs better than most teams in a big park.

Clear top pitcher followed by a lot of high risk, moderate reward types

Justin Verlander is the best pitcher on the board by far. Aside from Johnny Cueto, fresh off a two plus month stay on the disabled list, he’s at least $4.5K more expensive than any other pitcher on FanDuel and over $5K more than anyone else on DraftKings. No pitcher on the slate with more than five starts this season is within 10 points of his 31.2 K%, half a run of his 3.02 SIERA or 50 points of his .247 xwOBA. Find a way to pay up for Verlander at home in the most negative run environment in baseball against the White Sox (18.4 K-BB% vs RHP). There are otherwise still some interesting arms on the board at their current prices. Marco Gonzales is second behind Verlander with a 21.2 K% and 3.68 SIERA. He’s failed to complete six innings in just two of his last 13 starts and once by a single out. The Angels have just a 10.5 K-BB% vs LHP with a predominantly right-handed lineup, but also just a 93 wRC+ and 12.1 HR/FB against them. Gonzales costs $7.3K on either site in a great park in Seattle. Max Fried struck out 11 of 25 Cardinals in his second start of the season and had a 14.6 K-BB% in nine AAA starts this season. He’s a decently regarded prospect with a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). He costs just $5.9K on FanDuel against a Milwaukee team with an 81 wRC+ vs LHP, though that seems strange considering their 10.8 K-BB% and 14.8 HR/FB against them. The Brewers do have a team 26.4 K% over the last week. Luke Weaver has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts and has an ERA above five on the season now. However, he has a league average strikeout rate (20.9% – third best) and the second lowest aEV on the board (86.5 mph) among those with more than five starts and a great park in San Francisco tonight against an offense with a 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP this year. It’s not a comfortable fit, but it’s a reasonable one for a price less than $8K, though don’t expect the six innings necessary for a quality start on FanDuel (just four times this year). Jeremy Hellickson wasn’t very good in his return from a month on the DL and rarely goes through the order a third time, but he has a 20.3 K%, 3.79 SIERA and .325 xwOBA all very much in line with those fighting for second behind Verlander and costs $7.7K or less against the Marlins (sub-90 wRC+ and 16+ K-BB% on the road and vs RHP). Shelby Miller has allowed 11 runs (three HRs) in 8.2 innings since returning from TJ surgery. However, he’s also struck out 11 of 44 batters (though with just a 7.2 SwStr%) and costs less than $7K against the Padres (70 wRC+, 20 K-BB% on the road, 82 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP).

Site Specific Values

The Twins have the highest team total on the slate against Andrew Cashner, and left-handed power is the first priority. The top lefty bats of Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar are at a significant discount on FanDuel. Rosario has an ISO of .279 against righties with Escobar all the way up at .313 and both hovering around 40% hard hits to take advantage of the 41% fly balls allowed by Cashner.

Not a Sexy Team, But a Sexy Matchup Awaits

It’s never fun to stack up the 2018 version of the Tigers, but they do draw a mouth-watering matchup against Yovani Gallardo this evening. There’s no other way to say it other than that Gallardo is pretty much washed up, and I am putting zero stock into one good start against the White Sox, as that came on a night where the White Sox clearly packed it in after allowing ten runs in the first three innings. Gallardo doesn’t offer much in the way of strikeout ability, he walks too many batters, and he’s just unable to consistently get outs at this stage of his career.

The Tigers will go over-looked tonight, and the top and middle part of the order is a really interesting GPP stack, with Castellanos being the pricey option and guys like Hicks and Mahtook (if he leads off) offering some salary relief.

Lining Up Well in a Favorable Home Matchup

The Diamondbacks are finally starting to swing the bats a lot better these days, and they draw a fine home date with inconsistent young lefty Eric Lauer and the Padres this evening. Lauer has been particularly woeful against RHBs this year, allowing them to post a 41% hard contact rate, 33% line drive rate, and .387 wOBA.

Paul Goldschmidt is your top option here with his .373 ISO and .452 wOBA against lefties despite his awful start to the season, while A.J. Pollock is off the disabled list and also a strong play. If you are looking for value, Nick Ahmed should hit 2nd and carries a respectable .366 wOBA of his own against southpaws this season.

An Interesting High-Upside Value Stack

Make no mistake about it – the 2018 Orioles are a disaster. However, most of their lineup now comes at a dirt cheap DFS cost, and they draw a good matchup tonight against a hittable young pitcher in Aaron Slegers. Slegers has shown below average strikeout ability at every minor league level and is clearly in over his head at the MLB level. His early returns have been very poor, and this could be a breakout spot for Baltimore.

Jones, Schoop, and Beckham are the top “value” picks if you are looking to stack cheap guys in order to fit the likes of Justin Verlander, while Machado and Trumbo are the higher-end options. All five are solid components of any Baltimore GPP exposure, even if you are looking for one-off plays.

I Would Pay More For This

There is not a lot of excitement in clicking the name Nick Ahmed into your DFS lineups, but the skills against lefties say we should be thrilled to roster him at this salary. He has a .241 ISO and .366 wOBA on 44% hard hits with below average strikeouts against left-handed pitching this season, carrying over from what he did in 2017. He should be hitting ahead of Goldschmidt, adding even more value. He’s an easy fit at this salary on all sites in all formats.

Digging for a SP #2 Choice

If you are playing on the multi-pitcher sites tonight, your evening might be made or broken based on how you attack your second pitching choice. I am liking the way things set up for Marco Gonzalez for my preferred option. He is coming off a sparkling complete game, one-run performance against the Royals, but many DFS players will dismiss that because… well, it was the Royals.

That’s a fair point, but Gonzalez actually doesn’t set up that poorly, even against the high-powered Angels. Gonzalez has long been splits-neutral with some reverse splits leans, so the RH-heavy Angels don’t necessarily hurt his outlook. Gonzalez is a strong GPP option this evening.

Thurday's Top Bat

There are a few high end bats to pay for, but I would start with Paul Goldschmidt against a lefty. San Diego’s Eric Lauer has allowed a .189 ISO and .384 wOBA to right-handed batters on 42% hard hits with below average 20.4% strikeouts and just 33% ground balls. Goldschmidt has been shellacking lefties, just as he did last year coming in with a 51% hard hit rate, .373 ISO and .452 wOBA. He gets on base at a .426 clip, he hits for power and has solid hitters on both sides of him for runs and RBI opportunities.

The Clear-Cut Top Pitcher

There are times when I think you can play the ownership angle to fade a pitcher in DFS tournaments, but tonight is not one of those nights for me. Justin Verlander is MILES ahead of the rest of the pitching choices on this slate, and I’m not saying that as hyperbole. Every other arm has question marks, and the only other ace-caliber pitcher is Johnny Cueto, who is making his first start back from the disabled list.

Verlander has been lights out all year with 31% strikeouts, 28% hard contact allowed, and a SIERA barely over 3.00. To top it off, he draws a matchup against the strikeout-prone White Sox this evening. Lock in Verlander as your ace and build from there.

Platoon On Sale

We just need a couple cheap bats tonight to help fit Verlander and Goldschmidt, and I’m willing to play someone as cheap as Ryan Rua, even with his pinch hit risk. He is facing a fly ball lefty in Matt Boyd with a history of home runs allowed to right-handed batters. In 48 PA against lefties this season, Rua has just a 12.5% K rate and a .279 ISO. In the bigger sample size, combining 2017-2018 data, we’re looking at a .183 ISO and 44% hard hits. He’s not a superstar, and an 0-2 and out of the game is a possibility here, but I’m searching for some values, and this is too cheap to ignore.

Don't Overthink It

This is a terrible night for pitching once we get past the one ace up top, and that gives me a chance to use my favorite phrase – Don’t Overthink It. Even if this were a full slate, Verlander at home against the White Sox would be a standout play, but tonight the gap between him and everyone else is too immense to overlook. He is a high strikeout pitcher against a high strikeout opponent, he has low walks and limits hard contact and he is the biggest favorite on the board. He is a must play in cash games and a scary fade in tournaments, even at this salary.