DFS Alerts

Will The Luck Change Tonight?

It’s always risky taking a pitcher that is coming off an injury, but it’s hard not to like this spot for Shelby Miller. In two starts, he has a 3.30 xFIP with a 25% strikeout rate and a 6.8% walk rate. Miller has also gotten unlucky in both starts, as he has a .444 BABIP thus far. The hard-hit rate is concerning, but most of the advanced stats look good. I always like to see to see if a pitcher gets ahead in counts when coming off injury, and Miller has done a nice job of that so far.

As for the matchup, the Padres rank 29th in wOBA, 28th in wRC+, and dead last in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. You always worry about Hosmer and Myers, but outside of that, I’m not too worried about this San Diego lineup.

Keep Them Off Balance

I actually think there are a few viable SP2 options tonight, for both cash and tournaments. Marco Gonzales has pitched well and faces an Angels team that has struggled a lot with left-handed pitching this season. Mike Trout is crushing lefties, Simmons has a good wOBA, and Fletcher has been okay in a small sample size. With that said, the other six hitters combine for a .070 ISO and a .239 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

This Angels team doesn’t strike out a lot, and that’s always the downfall of picking on them. Still, Gonzales has a .312 wOBA with a .142 ISO and a 22.3% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. It’s also helpful that he’s a three-pitch guy and can really mix up his pitches to keep hitters off balance.

Makes It Work

We are searching for some value options to fit Verlander in tonight, and Mikie Mahtook is $2,000 on FanDuel. I don’t mind him on DraftKings either, but the price obviously sticks out on FD. He is expected to hit leadoff tonight, and if this is the case, he’s an excellent value option.

Since the start of the 2017 season, Yovani Gallardo has a 5.22 xFIP with a 16.4% strikeout rate and a 10.4% walk rate. In that span, he has a .367 wOBA with a .218 ISO allowed to righties. Mahtook doesn’t have great numbers, but he does hit fastballs and sinkers well, and that’s what Gallardo throws 60%+ of the time.

One Ship Is Sinking Here

Logan Morrison is not having the best season, but he’s someone I really like in this spot tonight. It’s hard not to love anyone facing Andrew Cashner, but I’m starting to learn you need to target hitters that hit sinkers well. Since the start of 2016, Morrison has a .422 wOBA with a .500 CXwOBA and a .332 ISO against sinkers. He also has a 43.59% hard-hit rate and a 91.8 average exit velocity. Cashner throws his sinker 37% of the time and it’s the pitch he’s been able to generate a lot of groundballs with. With Morrison profiling well in this spot, he’s one of the top value plays on the slate for me.

Excellent Value Hitting Second

Nick Ahmed is always one of my favorite value hitters when Arizona is facing a left-handed pitcher, as he has a .241 ISO with a .366 wOBA against southpaws this season. On top of that, he has a 44.3% hard-hit rate and his average exit velocity is 88.2.

Opposing pitcher Eric Lauer has struggled with righties in his rookie season. He has a .384 wOBA with a .189 ISO and a 41.6% hard-hit rate against RHB. Lauer also relies on his fastball a lot, yet he has a .400 wOBA with a .460 CXwOBA and a 40% hard-hit rate allowed on that pitch type this season.

Adrian Beltre scratched Wednesday; Rougned Odor replaces

Beltre has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Wednesday’s matchup with the Houston Astros due to a tooth infection. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Rougned Odor, who will play second base and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which bumps Jurickson Profar and Robinson Chirinos each up one batting position, respectively, while Joey Gallo slides down to seventh and Profar shifts over to third base defensively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Rangers order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Gerrit Cole at home this evening.

No significant weather concerns for Wednesday night

Only one spot with any chance of rain and no real weather concerns for Wednesday night. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates tonight.

Some nice plays at Coors, but not a necessity

The Giants may have a 5.17 implied run line at Coors, but it’s only sixth best on a seven game board and they’re only attacking Tyler Anderson (24.2 K%, 3.49 SIERA, .271 xwOBA last 30 days) with four competent bats, all in the top half of the order. LHBs actually have .364 wOBA against Anderson since last year, though he has virtually no split by xwOBA (.307 – .312), hard hit rate (30.2% – 32.6%) or ground ball rate (38.7% – 39.7%) since last season. Gorkys Hernandez (91 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Brandon Belt (117 wRC+, .134 ISO), Buster Posey (139 wRC+, .180 ISO) and Andrew McCutchen (137 wRC+, .238 ISO) are all fine plays, but not necessities on a board with a lot of offensive firepower.

Trevor Oaks has good control and generates lots of ground balls

Trevor Oaks makes his second major league start for the Royals. In 9.2 total major league innings, he’s allowed eight runs, but with a single HRs, just two walks and eight strikeouts. Oaks has a strikeout rate that has fluctuated throughout his minor league career (21.1% at AAA last year, 14.7% this year with other stops somewhere in between). While he had an 8.3% walk rate at AAA this season, he’s never previously been above 5.5% at any level and has never had a ground ball rate below 50% at any level either. That said, the Indians still top a board that includes games at Coors and Texas with 5.9 implied runs. Each of the first four batters in the Cleveland lineup is above a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year with Francisco Lindor (141 wRC+, .283 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (161 wRC+, .306 ISO) rarely being a mistake to roster.

Walk prone Pirate rookie makes his first major league start against a surging offense

The Dodgers are currently the last of seven teams (half the board) above five implied runs tonight (5.16). Clay Holmes has thrown four innings in relief, but this will be his first major league start for the Pirates. He gets to do so in one of the most negative run environments in the league, but against a smoldering offense (Dodgers 161 wRC+, 24 HR/FB last seven days). Holmes had a 14.4 K-BB% at AAA this year based on a career high 25 K%. His previous minor league high was 20.8% at AAA last year with double digit walk rates throughout his climb. This could spell trouble here. No batter in the Dodger lineup tonight is below a .183 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Remove Justin Turner (97 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Kike Hernandez (76 wRC+, .195 ISO) and the remaining six hitters are all above a 125 wRC+ and .210 ISO. The most potent of which have been Max Muncy (184 wRC+, .369 ISO) and Joc Pederson (133 wRC+, .282 ISO).

Colorado run line seems conservative against southpaw who struggles against RHBs

The Rockies have one of the more conservative run lines we’ve seen for them at Coors. It’s just 5.33 and fourth on a 14 team board against Andrew Suarez, against whom RHBs have a .366 wOBA, supported by a .370 xwOBA, and 48.7 Hard%. This could get uglier than Vegas expects. The biggest difficulty may be in affording three of the top bats on the board in DJ LeMahieu (129 wRC+, .213 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Nolan Arenado (241 wRC+, .455 ISO) and Trevor Story (148 wRC+, .339 ISO). Ian Desmond (111 wRC+, .258 ISO) is a bit more affordable at least.

The top Houston bat against LHP may not be who most might think anymore

Mike Minor has allowed three ERs over his last 20 IP without a HR (4 BB, 14 K) with two of those starts at home, but much inferior offenses (Padres, Rockies). The Astros are third on the board with 5.39 implied runs. Since returning to a major league rotation this season, Minor has silenced LHBs (.290 wOBA, 14.8 K-BB%, 54.2 GB%), but RHBs have a .333 wOBA and 31.4 GB% with 11 HRs. Unfortunately for him, he’ll have to face some pretty dynamic ones against LHP at the top of the Houston order. Alex Bregman (175 wRC+, .290 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may be the best of them all. George Springer (144 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Jose Altuve (141 wRC+, .145 ISO) are expensive compliments. The problem with paying up for Houston bats in this spot is that it limits the ability to pay up for expensive pitching tonight.

Sal Romano has been better, White Sox lineup lacks potency

Sal Romano is a pitcher players should want to take advantage of (16.8 K%, 4.85 SIERA, 3.61 xwOBA), though he has been better over the last month (19.8 K%, 4.07 SIERA, .337 xwOBA) and there really aren’t a lot of bats with which to attack him in the Chicago lineup. Jose Abreu (127 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) returns. Yoan Moncada (116 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Daniel Palka (96 wRC+, .227 ISO) both have power in a very power friendly environment. Avisail Garcia (125 wRC+, .190 ISO) has a 314 wRC+ and 65.4 Hard% over the last week. The White Sox have a 4.42 implied run line that’s very middle of the board.

Leadoff Hitter of the Hottest Offense in Baseball

The Dodgers continue to mash the cover off the baseball, especially at home. They are a viable stack once again, as they square off against a rookie pitcher that is making his first career major league start. The Dodgers have a high implied run total and plenty of upside. Joc Pederson (.386 xwOBA), Max Muncy (.447 xwOBA), Justin Turner (.336 xwOBA), Cody Bellinger (.350 xwOBA), Matt Kemp (.364 xwOBA), and Yasmani Grandal (.387 xwOBA) all have good numbers against right-handed pitching this season.

Keep the Train Rolling

The Rockies have an easy matchup to break down. While Andrew Suarez has good numbers on the season, he has a massive gap between his splits. He has held left-handed hitters to a .223 xwOBA, while allowing a .370 xwOBA and a 49% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. This bodes well for a Rockies’ lineup that is loaded with right-handed power. DJ LeMahieu (.397 xwOBA), Nolan Arenado (.450 xwOBA), Trevor Story (.370 xwOBA), Ian Desmond (.345 xwOBA), and Chris Iannetta (.357 xwOBA) are all elite plays at their respective positions, as they all mash left-handed pitching.