DFS Alerts

A Viable Cheap Play on the Mound

Well hello there, Lance Lynn. His overall profile this year is very ugly, with high walks, a lot of hard contact, and downright poor numbers in most respects. However, he is still rocking a respectable strikeout rate that is a tick above league average, and he has held right-handed bats to a wOBA 60 points lower than what he has allowed to lefties.

Left-handed bats have always given him problems, but the good news is that he draws a favorable matchup here against a RH-heavy Orioles lineup. It also just happens to be a lineup that flat out stinks against right-handed pitching. There are zero lefties in this lineup that can give Lynn fits, as the only note-worthy power lefty is Chris Davis — who I might be able to throw a pitch past at this point. The matchup puts Lynn on the radar as a very intriguing SP #2 choice on the multi-pitcher sites tonight, as he provides a path to upside while also allowing you to fit in one of the aces as your first pitcher.

A Close Call for the Preferred Arm at the Top

It might be easy to forget about deGrom as a bona fide fantasy (and real life) ace. After all, he only has five wins despite one of the most sparkling pitching profiles that you will ever find. If that doesn’t tell you how worthless the “win” statistic is for pitchers, I’m not really sure what else to say. deGrom has five wins in 17 starts despite a 1.84 ERA. LOL Mets?

Lack of run support aside, we can easily make a case to roster deGrom over Sale tonight. The matchup is just as good for deGrom against a weak Rays offense, and the additional benefit is that deGrom comes with a cheaper price tag on all the sites. His strikeouts lag behind Sale just a little bit (31% compared to 36%), but that is offset by the fact that the Rays strike out at a higher clip than Sale’s opponent in the Royals. deGrom also gets the benefit of pitching at home. I have these two as a literal toss up in terms of overall fantasy points tonight, so I will generally side with the discount with deGrom.

Mitch Haniger (knee) scratched Thursday; Guillermo Heredia replaces

Haniger has been scratched from the Seattle Mariners original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Thursday’s matchup with the Los Angeles Angels due to a bruised right knee. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Guillermo Heredia, who will play center field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Denard Span up to the three-hole, and Ryon Healy, Ben Gamel, and Chris Herrmann all slide up one batting position, respectively, while Gamel shifts over to right field defensively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Mariners order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Jaime Barria at home this evening.

Jaime Barria has allowed nine HRs last six starts, including two to someone he's facing tonight

The Mariners have the top projected run line (4.76) among tonight’s west coast teams and fourth on the board overall. Jaime Barria misses bats at a league average rate (20 K%, 11.4 SwStr%), but has has thrown more than 90 pitches just three times (though in each of his last two starts). He’s allowed nine HRs over his last six starts and two last time he was in Seattle. It was Mitch Haniger (138 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who took him deep twice as RHBs have pounded Barria this year to the tune of a .371 wOBA, 42.2 Hard% and 36.1 GB%. By xwOBA, they’re well above .400. Nelson Cruz (153 wRC+, .298 ISO) is a premium bat as well here.

One lineup is suddenly deep with proficient bats against LHP with the return of another one of their hitters

The Arizona suddenly looks a bit deeper, especially against LHP with both A.J. Pollock (146 wRC+, .336 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Steven Souza (148 wRC+, .180 ISO) a part of it. They join prominent lefty-masher Paul Goldschmidt (195 wRC+, .405 ISO) in an intended assault on Eric Lauer, against whom LHBs have a .387 wOBA and 41.6 Hard%. While Nick Ahmed (130 wRC+, .241 ISO) and John Ryan Murphy (141 wRC+, .298 ISO) have great results against southpaws as well, the former does so with a .329 xwOBA (33 points below actual), but still has some value at a low price point. The latter finds himself batting eight tonight.

Just one spot to watch in Thursday night's forecast

Weather is not much of a concern Thursday night. There’s just one spot worth watching in Kevin’s updated forecast, which is available on the Weather page right now. Premium subscribers can get updates right up until lock with Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.

Baltimore faces a hard contact prone, low strikeout rookie in Minnesota

Twenty-five year old Aaron Slegers is not a prospect of note. He’s failed to reach even a 20% strikeout rate at any stop above rookie ball and has a 5.8 K-BB% in 20.2 major league innings with three starts for the Twins last year. Batters from either side of the plate have a hard hit rate not much below 50% against him in this small sample, though RHBs have a 56.7 GB%. The Orioles have a Vegas projection of 4.68 runs that’s fifth best on the board. Manny Machado (140 wRC+, .237 ISO), Adam Jones (114 wRC+, .188 ISO) are the only two batters above an 85 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year among the first seven in the order tonight. Additionally, Mark Trumbo (83 wRC+, .193 ISO) is the only other bat above a .160 ISO over that span. Tim Beckham (82 wRC+, .131 ISO) does have appeal due to matchup, run line, batting order spot (leadoff), and price ($3.2K or less).

One Houston bat has punished LHP to the tune of a 175 wRC+ and .284 ISO over the last calendar year

Despite the most negative run environment in baseball, the Astros have the third highest implied run line (4.86) tonight against the talented, but struggling Carlos Rodon. The good news is that Rodon no longer has much of a platoon split. RHBs have just a .325 wOBA and .327 xwOBA against him since last year and just a .303 wOBA against him this year through five starts, though he has surrendered four HRs to RHBs already. Alex Bregman (175 wRC+, .284 ISO) has been the best bat in this lineup against LHP over the last calendar year, though nobody with more than 30 PAs is below a 100 wRC+ against them. The problem with Houston bats, as it is for other well projected offenses tonight, is that stacking them takes tonight’s top pitcher out of the mix. Bregman is the one guy players should probably make an effort to fit. He has a team leading 165 wRC+ over the last week and Rodon might be a pitcher the Stros can run on should they need to do so (Stolen Base Ratings available to premium subscribers).

Top projected offense is facing a pitcher who has successfully limited hard contact recently

The Twins are the top projected offense tonight (5.3 implied runs) with only one other team above five runs. They’ll host Andrew Cashner, who has completed six innings in four of his last five starts and has allowed three runs or less in all five. He did have a 14.5 K% in June with a 4.24 FIP, but with a -4.4 Hard-Soft% and also a .299 xwOBA over the last 30 days. He’s been successfully limiting hard contact despite not missing bats. This could turn out to be a frustrating spot for Minnesota backers, but Cashner has allowed batters from either side a wOBA a point or two above .325 since last year with an xwOBA 15 to 25 points higher, despite hard hit rates below 30%. RHBs have hit ground balls 52.3% of the time to 38.1% for LHBs. This is a tough spot because paying up for a great bat like Eddie Rosario (157 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) could hinder the ability to squeeze in Verlander. The more interesting play here could be Joe Mauer (102 wRC+, .385 ISO, .099 ISO), who has a lineup leading 45.5 Hard% over the last week and costs just $2.5K on FanDuel (less than $4K on DK too). If Cashner does his standard six inning, three run job, then the Twins will have to squeeze out a few more against the bullpen to meet their projection.

J.T. Riddle (hip) scratched Thursday; Yadiel Rivera replaces

Riddle has been scratched from the Miami Marlins original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the Washington Nationals due to left hip tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Yadiel Rivera, who will play shortstop and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which does bump Cameron Maybin up two batting positions to Riddle’s vacated spot in the sixth-hole. However, the remainder of the Marlins lineup does stay intact as they face off against right-hander Jeremy Hellickson on the road this evening.

Potentially a nice spot with low ownership vs pitcher with platoon issues

Jhoulys Chacin has a 21.1 K% over the last 30 days that’s fairly impressive among tonight’s pitching choices. He’s allowed one run or less in three of his last four outings. However, he was shelled for eight runs by the Cardinals two starts back, has walked 13 of his last 97 batters and is facing an offense with just a 20.2 K% vs RHP. The Braves still have a fairly low 4.18 implied run line and despite Chacin’s issues with LHBs (.338 wOBA, .353 xwOBA, 35.1 Hard% since 2017), Atlanta bats from that side are quite expensive and would probably necessitate fading tonight’s top pitcher. Still, the top half of the lineup (all left-handed) led by Ozzie Albies (111 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (133 wRC+, .211 ISO) are in a nice spot and could go under-owned due to lineup construction issues.

Cheap bats bats in a great spot in Detroit

Yovani Gallardo pitched into the eighth inning with three runs and seven strikeouts against the White Sox last time out, but still has a nine ERA over 20 innings this year with four HRs. In 150 innings since last season, batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The Detroit lineup does not look encouraging, but there are only five teams above them on tonight’s board at a respectable four and a half implied runs. Nick Castellanos (112 wRC+, .211 ISO) is, by far, the best hitter in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year, but some near competent bats cost much less in John Hicks (97 wRC+, .154 ISO), Niko Goodrum (87 wRC+, .201 ISO) and Mikie Mahtook (101 wRC+, .151 ISO) for the minimum price on FanDuel ($3.2K on DK) in the leadoff spot.

Affordable mini-stack against struggling pitcher brings some salary relief

Matt Boyd has allowed nine HRs this season, but at six of them over his last six starts and has allowed 14 runs over his last 13 innings. Right-handed batters have a .338 wOBA, 35.7 Hard% and 33.7 GB% against him since last season. It’s not Texas, but Detroit is a good enough environment to give the Rangers a 4.42 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board. Three of the first four batters in the lineup are right-handed, do well against LHP and cost less than $4K each. Players looking to pay up for tonight’s top pitcher might do well to consider a mini-stack like Delino DeShields (115 wRC+, .159 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Elvis Andrus (110 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Adrian Beltre (174 wRC+, .200 ISO). Jurickson Profar (135 wRC+, .269 ISO) is a bit further down in the order (sixth), but costs less than $4K too.

Something Cheap

I would like to see Polanco get a few more games under his belt, but on this slate in the search for values, losing Ryan Rua leaves me looking at the Twins lefties for savings. Between Logan Morrison, Max Kepler, Jake Cave and Jorge Polanco, the team with the highest projected total has a lot of left-handed value against Andrew Cashner. I’m tabbing Polanco as the Core Play due to his multi-position eligibility, but you can mix and match these guys as needed in your lineups.

Rookie starter facing a very potent middle of the order in Washington

The Nationals are one of just two teams above five implied runs tonight (5.15). Twenty-two year-old Pablo Lopez is a potential back end of the rotation type with a 40 Future Value grade given by Fangraphs in March. He’s never had a walk rate above 5% in the minors, but has never really missed bats at an above average rate until his first trip through AA in eight starts this year (29.5 K%). He followed that up with an 18.8 K% in four AAA starts before being called up and pitching well against the Mets (6 IP – 6 H – 2 R – 2 HR – 1 BB – 5 K – 25 BF). Each of the first seven batters in the Washington lineup is above a 110 wRC+ and .170 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Juan Soto (143 wRC+, .202 ISO), Anthony Rendon (133 wRC+, .212 ISO), Bryce Harper (137 wRC+, .313 ISO) and Matt Adams (134 wRC+, .290 ISO) have been the top producers, right in the middle of the lineup. The Nationals should be able to do some more damage than the Mets did against Lopez, but he’s still a virtual unknown.