DFS Alerts
Is He Finally Back?
Bumgarner flashed vintage form in his last start against the Padres, reminding us of why he was a fantasy baseball ace for a number of years. While the park factor and matchup are certainly part of the reason why he was successful in that start against San Diego, he draws a similarly positive date with the Rockies tonight. The Rockies rank just 23rd in the league in wOBA and 25th in ISO in road games, and the matchup at AT&T Park is about one of the worst park shifts you can get. I am not thrilled about paying the premium price given that we haven’t seen a ton of strikeout upside from MadBum, but at least he got up to eight strikeouts in his last start. I’m willing to treat him as the top pitcher on a slate that isn’t as loaded with arms as what we saw last night.
It's Ugly Out There
Ugh! You know it’s a bad pitching slate when Kyle Gibson is a top option. While I’ve got to click someone’s name as a Core Play, this is not a night I recommend going all-in on anybody. But at the salary and in this matchup, Gibson tops my list as a viable play in any format on any site. His biggest issue is control with a high 10.6% walk rate. But he faces a White Sox team with the lowest walk rate in the league against righties, hopefully enough to help him keep that control in check. Gibson has solid 23.3% strikeouts to both right and left-handed batters, and there are plenty of strikeouts all over this White Sox lineup. I don’t love it, but this is what we have on this slate.
Start of Tuesday's MIN-CHW game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the White Sox has not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Lance Lynn not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this game remains the riskiest game on the board and a late postponement cannot be entirely ruled out.
As reported by: Scott Merkin via Twitter
Start of Tuesday's CLE-STL game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Cleveland Indians and St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Cardinals have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Corey Kluber and Carlos Martinez not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this game to play following this initial weather stoppage if the teams are patient, which keeps both pitchers and hitters realistically in consideration for all formats.
As reported by: Jenifer Langosch via Twitter A couple of risky spots still on the board in Tuesday's updated forecast
Kevin has updated Tuesday’s forecast and there are still a couple of risky spots on the board, one involving a high priced pitcher. Players can read the entire report on the Weather page. Kevin will continue to update his forecast for premium subscribers on Crunch Time beginning at 6:30 ET.
Something has to give when low cost pitching meets low cost San Diego bats in Texas
There aren’t many spots where you’ll find the Padres at nearly five implied runs (4.88) against a right-handed pitcher, but Austin Bibens-Dirx in Texas is apparently one. Considering their 72 wRC+, 20.5 K-BB% on the road and 81 wRC+, 18 K-BB% vs RHP, there’s still some merit with using Bibens-Dirx in an SP spot with a premium pitcher for just $4.6K, but batters from either side of the plate are just above a .360 xwOBA against him since last season and Padres hitters are fairly cheap too. Travis Jankowski (108 wRC+, .079 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Manny Margot (87 wRC+, 122 ISO) and Eric Hosmer (154 wRC+, .197 ISO) start off the lineup all below $4K on DraftKings, while not a single batter in the entire lineup is above $3K on FanDuel. While Hosmer is the only real hitter of the bunch, the matchup and price dictate the value of the speedier hitters above him. Cory Spangenberg (114 wRC+, .186 ISO) has some value in the fifth spot as well.
Other tagged players: Manuel Margot, Travis Jankowski, Cory Spangenberg, Austin Bibens-Dirkx Nelson Cruz (back tightness) scratched Tuesday; Guillermo Heredia replaces
Cruz has been scratched from the Seattle Mariners original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Tuesday’s matchup with the Baltimore Orioles due to lower back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Guillermo Heredia, who will play center field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Kyle Seager, Denard Span, Ryon Healy, Ben Gamel, and Mike Zunino all up one batting position, respectively, while Gamel also shifts over to left field defensively and Span takes over the designated hitter duties. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Mariners order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Kevin Gausman on the road this evening.
As reported by: Ryan Divish via Twitter Worst split on the board belongs to Matt Harvey against LHBs
Matt Harvey is coming off his best start in a long time against the Cubs of all teams (6 IP – 2 ER – 1 BB – 6 K – 25 BF), but he has massive issues with LHBs since the start of last season (.409 wOBA, .414 xwOBA, 38.6 Hard%, 34.7 GB%). It’s the worst split on the board among those with more than three starts. This seems simple enough. The Braves start their order with four batters ranging from average to great against RHBs and have the fourth highest implied run line on the board (4.96). Freddie Freeman (138 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP last calendar year and Ozzie Albies (108 wRC+, .205 ISO), who is suddenly red hot over the last week again (204 wRC+, 58.6 Hard%), can be complimented with Ender Inciarte (102 wRC+, .128 ISO) and Nick Markakis (109 wRC+, .126 ISO), who are a tad pricey for guys who don’t provide much power, but lefties are just in such a great spot against Harvey. Cheaper exposure can be had with Johan Camargo (97 wRC+, .134 ISO), further down the lineup.
Other tagged players: Matt Harvey, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte Value bats in Texas could help pave the way to expensive pitching
Tyson Ross seemed rejuvenated through the early part of the season, but has just a 7.5 SwStr% over the last month and now has to return to the place of his greatest failure as a major league pitcher, struggling in his return from injury with the Rangers last season. It’s the most positive run environment in play on Tuesday night and Ross has always struggled with LHBs. They have a .354 wOBA against him this season and are within five points of .350 by both wOBA and xwOBA since last season. What makes this even more interesting, considering the price of pitching tonight, is that many of these bats are affordable. Shin-soo Choo (121 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top bat in the lineup and the most expensive. Joey Gallo (126 wRC+, .321 ISO) finds himself batting eight tonight. Adrian Beltre (120 wRC+, .187 ISO) and Elvis Andrus (109 wRC+, .178 ISO) are perfectly acceptable from the right-side, considering cost and environment. While RHBs have just a .295 wOBA against Ross since last season, xwOBA increases that 33 points, while batters from either side are above a 35% hard hit rate with merely a league average ground ball rate these days.
Other tagged players: Elvis Andrus, Shin-soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Tyson Ross Carlos Martinez has walked 22% of all batters since returning from injury, 17.5% of LHBs this year
Since returning from the DL, Carlos Martinez has a 22 BB%. LHBs have a 17.5 BB% against him this season. The Tribe will attack with seven from that side of the plate tonight and 4.58 implied run line that’s in the upper middle range on the board could have players off of this potent lineup due to Martinez’s name value and the negative run environment. If players can get some of these potent lefty bats at under 5% ownership (Ownership projections available in LIneupHQ for premium players), they may be worth paying up for in an interesting spot. Francisco Lindor (125 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (138 wRC+, .204 ISO), and Jose Ramirez (161 wRC+, .313 ISO) may be complemented with a more affordable Yonder Alonso (124 wRC+, .195 ISO), who has a 201 wRC+ and 75 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor, Yonder Alonso, Carlos Martinez Blue Jays are debuting a oft-injured lefty in Houston tonight
Ryan Borucki has been summoned to the majors to make his debut and the Blue Jays are easing him in with the most negative run environment in play. There’s just one problem. He’ll have to face the Astros (122 wRC+ vs LHP, 3.9 K-BB% last seven days). Borucki has had an injury filled journey through the minors with just a 9.5 K-BB% at AAA this season. Previously, he’s been around or above a 20 K-BB%, but with only eight starts above A ball prior to this season. Vegas is siding very heavily with the Astros (5.34 runs is second highest on the board) and while they’ve omitted Carlos Correa from today’s lineup, players will probably want some exposure to the heavy hitters in this lineup: George Springer (149 wRC+, .199 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Alex Bregman (154 wRC+, .251 ISO), Jose Altuve (136 wRC+, .146 ISO) and perhaps Yulieski Gurriel (128 wRC+, .146 ISO) and Evan Gattis (112 wRC+, .232 ISO) too. While Gurriel has essentially provided the same offense as Altuve against southpaws over the last year for $1K less, there is a 24 point difference in xwOBA in favor of the reigning MVP with more of a positional need at Second Base.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis, Yulieski Gurriel, Ryan Borucki Twins have two of the best hitters in baseball against RHP over the last calendar year
Reynaldo Lopez has just a 16.9 K% this season and LHBs have a .358 xwOBA against him with just a 29.1 GB% since alst season. The Minnesota Twins have a number of left-handed hitters at the top of the lineup who have had great success against RHP, which explains their 4.71 implied run line tonight that’s a top seven mark on the board. Eddies’ Rosario (160 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Escobar (140 wRC+, .294 ISO) have been the heavy hitters. Either Joe Mauer (111 wRC+, .390 xwOBA, .103 ISO) or Logan Morrison (101 wRC+, .213 ISO) can be a value type at a much lower cost at First Base. Players are certainly going to want to look for Kevin’s updated forecast as he had some significant concerns about this game this morning.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Joe Mauer, Logan Morrison, Reynaldo Lopez Is Jesus Aguilar one of the most likely batters on the board to homer tonight?
Jakob Junis has a league average strikeout rate and is facing an offense with a 25.2 K% vs RHP, but he is also pitching in a very power friendly environment and has allowed at least three HRs in a start four times this year with 19 total bombs allowed. By wOBA, batters from either side of the plate are within two points of .325 with a hard hit rate above 35% in his short career, but xwOBA extends RHBs 30 points to .354. In fact, 13 of his 19 HRs have been surrendered to RHBs. That puts Ryan Braun (96 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jesus Aguilar (129 wRC+, .279 ISO) in better spots than some players might suspect. The latter has a 263 wRC+ and three HRs over the last week. The Brewers do have a top six implied run line tonight though (4.79). Eric Thames (135 wRC+, .295 ISO) and Christian Yelich (137 wRC+, .204 ISO) are high priced, but borderline elite bats with the platoon advantage.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich, Eric Thames, Jakob Junis High priced Seattle bats could go underowned against a HR prone, reverse platoon pitcher in a power friendly park
The Mariners have a 4.35 implied run line that’s middle of the board. With that and high price tags, a top of the lineup stack against a HR prone, reverse platoon pitcher in a power friendly park could go under-owned. It’s going to take a lot to fit Jean Segura (108 wRC+, .137 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Mitch Haniger (128 wRC+, .228 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (148 wRC+, .290 ISO) in the same lineup if paying up for pitching, but RHBs are within two points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Kevin Gausman since last season. He’s surrendered 15 HRs this season, 11 to RHBs. Overall, he has an 89.4 mph aEV this year and .399 xwOBA over the last 30 days.
Other tagged players: Kevin Gausman, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura Highest run line belongs to an offense that has struggled greatly with LHP this year
In one of just two extremely positive run environments in play on Tuesdays, the Red Sox top the board at 5.58 implied runs against John Lamb, despite their team 86 wRC+ and 16.7 K-BB% against southpaws. Though they’ve been improving on those numbers of late, there still aren’t many batters in this lineup who are strong against LHP, aside from the few who really punish them. Just two starts this season, but Lamb has faced more than 550 major league hitters in his career with batters from either side above a .370 wOBA and 14 HR/FB with a below average ground ball rate. J.D. Martinez (159 wRC+, .323 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Mookie Betts (165 wRC+, .258 ISO) are likely to two of the most popular bats on the board should players be able to find a way to afford them. Nobody else in the lineup exceeds a .180 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Xander Bogaerts (126 wRC+, .148 ISO) should be popular as well though. While Lamb has lasted a total of 8.1 innings in his two starts, these three bats all hit RHP nearly as well too.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, John Lamb