DFS Alerts
Fly Ball Pitcher To Attack
I don’t think you’ll need a ton of value at third base tonight, but Danny Valencia makes a lot of sense if you want to pay down. He has a .198 ISO with a .357 wOBA and a .452 CXwOBA against left-handed pitching this season. He’s not striking out a lot and his average exit velocity is over 90, plus he only has a 14.5% soft contact rate. LeBlanc has pitched well this season, but he benefits from pitching at home. LeBlanc is a fly ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hits over 95 mph exit velocity. I don’t love Baltimore, but I’ll get exposure to Valencia and Machado tonight.
Mashing On The Road
I’m a huge fan of the Mariners when they’re on the road, and I’ve talked about it with Kyle Seager all week. Well, the love for him isn’t stopping tonight, as I’m going right back to him against Alex Cobb. Cobb has a .414 wOBA with a .241 ISO and a 38.2% hard-hit rate against lefties this season, while Seager has a .212 ISO with a .407 CXwOBA and a 39.9% hard-hit rate against righties. His wOBA number is down, but he’s more of a fly ball hitter, and all the contact numbers look great for him.
A Lot of Risk With This One
This is extremely risky, but I think Zach Eflin is a very good option on this slate. Nobody is going to play him against the Yankees, yet he has some serious strikeout upside here. If the Yankees play the righties, that’s when I give the bump to Eflin. He has a .266 wOBA with a .093 ISO and a -1.2% hard to soft contact ratio against righties this season. Eflin also has a 23.5% strikeout rate with a 5.2% walk rate to righties. There is a lot of power in this lineup and that makes him very risky like I mentioned above. With that said, on this slate, I’m willing to take the risk.
Searching For Upside
There is no safe pitcher I feel good about on tonight’s slate, so I’ll be chasing upside with my pitchers. Shane Bieber has been great against righties since being called up and he was good against them in the minors as well. When you think of the Cardinals, you think of a very right-handed heavy offense, and the projected lineup has six righties in it. Jose Martinez and Yadier Molina have hit righties well this season, but the rest of the righties have struggled. Bieber has a 2.81 xFIP with a 28.9% strikeout and a 3.9% walk rate in his three starts this season.
Can't Argue These Numbers
We’re still dealing with a small sample size on John Ryan Murphy, but it’s tough to argue with 52% hard hits, a .327 ISO and five homers in 52 AB against lefties. As was the case with Paul Goldschmidt, he is facing a low strikeout, high fly ball lefty with a history of home run problems to right-handed bats. Murphy is so cheap on FanDuel that I would consider him there as well, but he’s a standout at the catcher position on DK.
Underpriced After Slow Start
Michael Conforto took a long time to get going after coming back from a shoulder injury. There was even talk of sending him back to the minors just a few weeks ago, but things are starting to turn around, as he has a 51% hard hit rate over the past two weeks, and even while we’ve been waiting for his power to come around, his plate skills have remained solid against righties, giving him a .373 OBP to this point in the season. This is a guy who had a .292 ISO last season before the shoulder injury, and it’s reasonable to have expected it to take him some time to get back to full strength. Against the terribly low strikeouts of Ivan Nova, he looks underpriced on all sites.
Another home run pitcher with platoon issues in Milwaukee this afternoon
Both later afternoon starts have the home team a bit more than a single implied run above the visitor at around 4.6 to 3.4. Brent Suter is a contact manager (83.6 mph aEV is best for the entire day), who has struck out 22.5% of batters over the last month with the knock on him being that he rarely goes beyond five innings. In fact, prior to two starts ago, he hadn’t completed six innings in a start all year. He’s completed seven in each of his last two. The DH-less Royals have a wRC+ below 90 with exactly a 10.1 HR/FB on the road and vs LHP with a few more strikeouts (21.4%) against southpaws as well. If looking to pay up for bats, Suter is your man for less than $7.5K. Whit Merrifeld (152 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the bat of interest here despite a -4 wRC+ over the last seven days. Rosell Herrera is a cheap two hole hitter with a .376 xwOBA against LHP in limited opportunities. Danny Duffy has had flashes of his previous self, but has a below average strikeout rate overall (19.3%) with an 11.2 BB%. While he can occasionally pop off, RHBs have a .343 wOBA, supported by a .349 xwOBA against him since last year with an equal 34.8 Hard% and GB%. They already have 16 HRs against him this year. Jose Aguilar (134 wRC+, .266 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Ryan Braun (106 wRC+, .248 ISO) both left the yard last night and stand a reasonable or better chance of doing so again today.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Danny Duffy, Brent Suter, Whit Merrifield
Both pitchers in Houston come into the game having pitched well in recent starts
Both later afternoon starts have the home team a bit more than a single implied run above the visitor at around 4.6 to 3.4. If the early game is untenable due weather conditions, Dallas Keuchel is the best pitcher on the slate. He’s not allowed an earned run over 12 innings in his last two starts (both the Royals) with 11 Ks. Both his strikeout (18.5%) and ground ball (54.3%) rates are down, but his 4.8% Barrels/BBE is still tied for second best for the entire day. He is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, around $9K on either site, and pitching in the most negative run environment on the board against a Toronto offense with a 91 wRC+ against LHP, but just a 21.4 K% against them as well. Steve Pearce (115 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Kendrys Morales (142 wRC+, .180 ISO) are both $3.5K or less on either site in the middle of this lineup. Marco Estrada has four straight starts of at least six innings with two runs or fewer and has a 23.9 K% over the last month. He’s worth a flier as much as any pitcher is on a three game slate where one of them has serious weather concerns, especially in the most favorable run environment. Working against him is a reverse split that has seen RHBs own a .363 wOBA against him since last year. That’s dragged down to .337 by xwOBA, but still more than enough for concern against a Houston offense with several bats who excel against same-handed pitching. George Springer (122 wRC+, .197 ISO), Alex Bregman (133 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Jose Altuve (169 wRC+, .184 ISO) are best by wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. No batter in the lineup is below 100.
Other tagged players: Marco Estrada, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Steve Pearce, Kendrys Morales Weather concerns for the only game being played without dome capabilities this afternoon
On a three game slate this afternoon, the only game outside of a dome has weather concerns in Atlanta. Kevin is skeptical about the viability of starting pitching in this game, which is a shame because in Luis Castillo, we have the highest SwStr% on the board (13.7%) for the entire day and Sean Newcomb offers a 23.9 K% with exceptional contact management (3.5% Barrels/BBE best for the entire day). Despite being separated by more than half a run (4.59 to 3.91), these are the two middle teams in terms of implied runs this afternoon. Newcomb has a reverse platoon split, holding RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA for his career, while LHBs have a .332 wOBA, .370 xwOBA and 32.8 Hard%, which are all much higher. On the small slate, assuming they play, that could make Joey Votto (122 wRC+, .144 ISO), Scooter Gennett (117 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Scott Schebler (98 wRC+, .136 ISO) slightly interesting as LHBs who have hit same-handed pitching reasonably well over the last calendar year. Luis Castillo has nearly the same numbers against RHBs (below a .330 wOBA and xwOBA), though LHBs have a .327 wOBA (.325 xwOBA) with a 38.2 Hard%. Freddie Freeman (137 wRC+, .213 ISO) is the top hitter in this lineup. While Ender Inciarte (101 wRC+, .127 ISO) and Nick Markakis (107 wRC+, .125 ISO) have been league average hitters against RHP, both do so with little power. Ozzie Albies is not in this lineup.
Other tagged players: Luis Castillo, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler Power Stack Potential
The A’s will definitely get over-looked tonight, but I like the power upside they bring to the table in a matchup against Mike Fiers. Fiers is a fly ball pitcher that allows a ton of hard contact, so plucking out the power bats as part of a mini-stack is a great way to go. Khris Davis leads the team with a .271 ISO and would be my first choice, but I like the upside of Joyce, Lowrie, and even a couple others here. The A’s are a great boom/bust stack.
Other tagged players: Jed Lowrie, Matt Joyce
A Difficult Stack to Stomach, But a Fantastic Matchup
I don’t love stacking the Diamondbacks against left-handed pitching, as their lineup is abnormally lefty-heavy, especially with Jake Lamb back. However, I will make an exception tonight against Chen, who has arguably been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. His xFIP is approaching 6.00, his strikeouts are way down, and his walks are way up. I’ll start with the obvious choice in a lefty masher in Paul Goldschmidt, who has picked up his play significantly of late. The reasonably-priced RHBs in the middle of the order like Ahmed and Murphy are also solid plays, while I don’t mind taking a shot on some lefties despite a L/L matchup, as Chen has just been that bad this year.
Other tagged players: Nick Ahmed, John Ryan Murphy Spend On A Top Hitter
With the lack of high end pitching, we should be able to spend on a couple bats, and Paul Goldschimdt tops my list against Wei-Yin Chen. Everything other than the ballpark lines up perfectly here. Chen is a fly ball pitcher with a dangerously low 12.6% strikeout rate to right-handed batters. He has struggled with home runs to right-handed batters throughout his career. Goldschmidt’s numbers continue to be off the charts against left-handed pitching with a 53% hard hit rate, .403 ISO and .465 wOBA this season. Since the start of 2017, he is batting .312 against lefties with a home run every 12.2 AB.
The Top Bat To Get In On This Game
The high total and best hitting environment on this slate is in Texas. But it’s tough to find the right Rangers bats against a ground ball lefty. The skills of Clayton Richard leave Adrian Beltre as the top Rangers bat with his line drive and hard ability matching up best against Richard. Below average strikeouts and high hard contact from Richard to righties are likely to result in balls in play, and Beltre will be in the middle of the action at a fair salary.
Target the Wide Splits of This Pitcher
The Padres/Rangers game has disappointed over the last couple of nights, and I’m not interested in blindly stacking this game tonight. The Padres are largely off my radar, and the Texas lefties are off my radar against Clayton Richard, who owns a ridiculous 75% ground ball rate and a fantastic batted ball profile against lefties. However, you can make a case for the Texas RHBs, as Richard’s ground ball rate dips by almost 20%, while his hard contact rate jumps to 42% against righties. Fire up your mini-stacks of righties here, with Beltre, Andrus/Profar, and Chirinos being the most logical stack. You have more flexibility on FanDuel, where you can roster Andrus and Profar together via use of the utility spot.
Other tagged players: Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, Robinson Chirinos Attacking a Positive Matchup for Strikeout Upside
We all know that any pitcher gets a boost in strikeout potential whenever they are facing the White Sox, and Kyle Gibson is the lucky pitcher that gets said boost this evening. The White Sox own a 25% team strikeout rate against RHP this season and rank in the bottom third of the league in pretty much every offensive category against righties. The better news is that Gibson has shown much improved form in 2018, allowing a sub-.290 wOBA to hitters from each side of the plate and posting a career-best 23.3% strikeout rate. The elevated walks are somewhat of a concern, but I love the GPP upside in this favorable matchup. Gibson is a fine SP #2 choice on the multi-pitcher sites tonight, and I wouldn’t hesitate to use him on FanDuel, either.