DFS Alerts
Good Bang for your Buck
The White Sox matchup against Lance Lynn is very simple — target the left-handed hitters. On the season, Lynn has held righties to a .301 xwOBA, while allowing a .387 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to lefties. Yoan Moncada is one of my favorite plays on the board. He has a .369 xwOBA against righties and has a nice mix of speed and power.
Right Back to the Well
The Braves were one of my favorite stacks last night and while they didn’t score ten runs, they were still one of the top producing offenses of the slate in terms of fantasy production. I will be going right back to the well tonight, as they square off against Matt Harvey. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that has given up a lot of hard contact. On the season, Harvey has allowed a .399 xwOBA to lefties and a .335 xwOBA to righties, so we can feel confident targeting batters from both sides of the plate. I usually make three tournament lineups per night and one of them will undoubtedly include a Braves’ stack.
Ton of Talent at a Discounted Price
Peralta will be the trendy pick tonight and it’s easy to see why. In his first three major league starts, he has a 2.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 41%. We are working with a very small sample size, but he has been dominant at every level that he’s pitched at. He draws an exploitable matchup tonight against the Royals, whose projected lineup has a 29% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The best part is that Peralta is underpriced across the industry — $7,700 on FanDuel and $7,900 on DraftKings.
And the Top Pitching Option Award goes to...
While this game is being played under National League rules, this is one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. That’s a concern for most pitchers, but not for Severino. He is quickly becoming part of the elite of the elites. In 16 starts this season, he has a 3.01 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a walk rate of 6%. He keeps the ball on the ground and induces a lot of soft contact. His matchup against the Phillies is the icing on the cake — their projected lineup has a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Daily Bullpen Alert: not a very opportunistic night
John Lamb and Elieser Hernandez are the only two pitchers averaging less than five innings per start in their six combined this season with Freddie Peralta and his three starts just above them. The Milwaukee bullpen has just a 3.92 FIP over the last month, but with an 18.6 K-BB% and we know where a lot of that is coming from. The Marlins have a lower FIP (3.82), but just a 10.2 K-BB% over the last month. The Angels (4.86) are one of just six teams above a 4.5 FIP over the last month, but the pen has a reasonable 15.5 K-BB% over that span. Two more pitchers averaging just more than five innings per start were both Mets at the start of the season (Steven Matz and Matt Harvey). While the Mets have the worst bullpen in baseball over the last month (6.00 FIP, 9.4 K-BB%), Matz has pitched at least 5.2 innings in five of his last six starts. The Reds aren’t too much better (4.24 FIP, 8.1 FIP), but Harvey has completed five innings or better in six straight. Other bullpens to attack (5+ FIP, < 10 K-BB% last 30 days), should the opportunity arise are the Royals (5.31, 6.1%) and the Rockies (5.05, 5.9%), the latter a surprise due not to the park for sure, but the personnel they’ve added this season. The park upgrade in San Francisco tonight should give them a boost. Bullpens to avoid (< 3 FIP, 20+ K-BB% last 30 days) are as expected: the Yankees (2.68, 22.1%) and Astros (2.48, 28.6%). Both of which we’re likely to see the best part of if much of any bullpen action at all with two high priced pitchers on the mound tonight.
Finding viable arms beyond the top tier is no easy task tonight
Players looking to drop down below the highest priced pitchers may find themselves struggling to locate high value arms in the middle or lower price ranges. Zack Godley isn’t much less expensive than those arms, but may be the best players can hope for. His 2018 has not been as successful as his 2017 season, but it’s been closest over the last month in which his strikeout rate has risen 25.6% with a 57.5 GB%, though he still has a 9.9 BB% and 41.1 Hard% over that span. He may be unworthy of his price tag tonight in a neutral matchup, but he’s facing the Marlins (86 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP) in Miami. Players paying up for high priced pitching on DraftKings are also going to need lower priced compliments. For less than $7K on DraftKings, a few pitchers may fill that spot. Blaine Hardy ($6.6K) has pitched reasonably well for Detroit (3.75 FIP, .312 xwOBA) and is hosting an Oakland offense that’s struggled with LHP (89 wRC+, 16.7 K-BB%). Steven Matz ($6.1K) is in a Coors bounce back spot and in fact, has faced many difficult lineups over the last month or so. Over those last six starts, his ground ball rate is up 54.1% and Nolan Arenado at Coors is one of just three HRs he’s allowed. In one of the most negative run environments in baseball, he gets one of the coldest offenses on the board (31 wRC+, 26.3 K%, 6.7 HR/FB last seven days). Chad Bettis ($5.4K) has allowed five or more runs in five straight. The only game outside Coors in that span was in Texas. His strikeout rate is actually slightly up this month (19.4%). He’s been hit hard for sure, but his .343 wOBA over the last 30 days is the same as his season rate. Coors magnifies most flaws, while San Francisco masks them. The Giants have a 16.7 K-BB% vs RHP and 3.9 HR/FB over the last week. If absolutely necessary, Austin Bibens-Dirx ($4.6K) is not good and he is at home in the worst run environment on the board, but he’s facing the Padres (72 wRC+, 20.5 K-BB% on the road, 81 wRC+, 18 K-BB% vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Blaine Hardy, Steven Matz, Chad Bettis, Austin Bibens-Dirkx Upside At A Savings
If you can’t get up to double aces, Freddy Peralta is the way to keep your upside intact at a savings. He was a 34% strikeout pitcher in the minors and has already shown that same upside in his first three starts. The risk is sketchy control, with high walk rates throughout his career. But against a Royals team that lacks power, the upside is worth the risk as an SP2. The biggest issue here is that this is likely to be a very popular choice, and he’s far from safe given his history of walks.
No shortage of high priced pitchers on Tuesday, but which ones are the best values?
Despite Max Scherzer’s appearance in the lone day game, there is no shortage of high priced pitching on Tuesday night. Four pitchers reach the $12K point on DraftKings (three at $10K or more on FanDuel) with one more at $10.5K and that pitcher, Ross Stripling may be the top value on the board. The strikeout rate has dropped under 30% (29.6% for the season), while the swinging strike rate has risen to better support his strikeout rate over the last month (12.7%). His contact management (85.6 mph aEV, 3.7% Barrels/BBE, 27.7% 95+ mph) is some of the best on the board as well, giving him a .237 xwOBA that’s 40 points lower than the next best pitcher (Corey Kluber .277). The Cubs are a well disciplined offense (11.7 K-BB% vs RHP), but he just struck out seven of them in his last start and gets a park upgrade at home for the rematch. Luis Severino has failed to pitch into the sixth inning just twice this year. Among those with more than three starts, he’s second in both K% (30.2%) and SwStr% (12.7%), first in each mark over the last month (32.1%, 13.7%). His .289 xwOBA and .276 xwOBA over the last 30 days are both third best. The park in Philadelphia is not really an upgrade over Yankee Stadium, although it’s a little less power friendly for LHBs, which aids him a bit. The Phillies have been hot, but have a split high 26.5 K% vs RHP. Severino is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($13.1K), but $1.2K less than Corey Kluber on FanDuel, where he’s still the second most expensive arm. Kluber bounced back from his first failure to complete six innings this season, first effort allowing more than three runs and lowest strikeout total of the season (three) with seven one-hit innings (seven strikeouts) against the White Sox. His 27.2 K% is fifth best on the board. A significant park upgrade against a below average offense, makes this a very favorable spot for him. The Cardinals have a 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP and 26.2 K% over the last seven days. The weather is a concern in this game, but could also work to lower his ownership rate, so pay attention to Kevin’s updates. James Paxton has struggled in back to back starts against the Yankees and Red Sox, but now seems to catch a break against in Baltimore. He’d previously completed seven innings in six of eight starts with double digit strikeouts in three of those starts. His 31.5 K% and 13.2 SwStr% are best on the board, but his 89.6 mph aEV is near the worst mark on the board, a slight concern in a power friendly park. The Orioles have a predominantly right-handed offense with just an 80 wRC+ against and 10.0 Hard-Soft% vs LHP, while Paxton has a reverse split himself. Players may need to be careful not to overestimate his strikeout potential tonight though. Of course, he can go off in any spot, but the Orioles are below a 22 K% at home, vs LHP and over the last seven days. Charlie Morton has walked 14 of his last 73 batters, striking out just 17, somehow, allowing just four ERs over those 15.2 innings. While sustaining a 27 K% over the last month, he has a .377 xwOBA with ERA estimators in the mid-fours over that span. He’s also had a velocity drop in recent starts, though it’s now similar to what it was in the latter part of 2017, where he experienced success. The Blue Jays have a 23.7 K%, but 15.2 HR/FB vs RHP. Houston may be the most negative run environment in baseball, but he still costs $12K on DraftKings, which is difficult to justify by recent performance.
Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Charlie Morton Size And Context
Tuesday’s GPP theme is high priced players (Trout/Upton) that will likely see reduced ownership due to the size (14 games) and context (good high priced SP options) of the slate. The Angels get a favorable park shift with this game taking place in Boston and their right handed power should play well against southpaw David Price. Trout and Upton are the main guys I’m targeting in GPPs but both Kinsler and Pujols offer cheap ways to finish off your stack.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Albert Pujols
#StackStros
We get a chance to run the #StackStros back – this time in a much friendlier matchup against Ryan Borucki who will be making his Major League debut Tuesday night. Borucki has posted largely mediocre numbers in AAA (18.4 K%) and doesn’t project for much Big League success. The Astros have an implied run total approaching 5.5+ and own one of the highest power projections of the slate.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Evan Gattis Good Offense, Low Owned
Want a chance to own one of the best offenses in the Majors for 5-10%? The Indians give you that chance Tuesday night as a combination of a full slate + high price tags should lead to low ownership against Carlos Martinez. CarMart is not right and we’re passed the stage of not rostering Martinez to potentially stacking against him. Martinez is relatively uneventful to stack against – his struggles have been more control based (14 BB%) than event based (0.41 HR/9) but there’s still some value in low owned Cleveland bats here.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez Pivot
Kluber finds himself in a similar contextual situation to the similarly priced Luis Severino but will be much lower owned. To be fair, Kluber does have the tougher matchup against St. Louis (23.3 K%; 95 wRC+) and the lower strikeout upside (27.2 K%) but it’s still a favorable draw for Kluber. Kluber makes for an easy pivot off Severino on DraftKings where there’s a $200 difference between the two but you’ll have to re-work some things on FanDuel where Kluber’s $1,200 more.
Posh Matchup
Freddy Peralta has three Big League starts under his belt and has posted gaudy 30+ DK point fantasy totals in two of them. It would be unfair to expect that type of success to continue but Peralta does draw a posh matchup Tuesday night as the Royals travel to Milwaukee. The Royals don’t strikeout much (18.9 K% vs RHP) but are otherwise offensively inept (80 wRC+ vs RHP) and will lose the DH with this game taking place at Miller Park. Peralta gives you the highest upside of pitchers in his price range.
Site Specific Values
There are a few notable differences in pricing between the sites, with the Mets lefties standing out on FanDuel. Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera and Michael Conforto are all under $3,500 on FD against Chad Kuhl and his hard hit issues against lefties. Conforto has been rounding into form after a slow start, carrying a 49% hard hit rate over the past two weeks. Even when he was struggling to get going with the hard hits, his plate skills were holding up against righties. He has a .370 OBP on the strength of 21.2% K and 16.9% BB to go with the power that we’ve seen from him in the past. With his fly balls and hard hits coming up, I’ll get on board while he’s at this salary against a power prone pitcher.
Sticking With The Savings
I’m going to keep my Core Plays on affordable bats tonight. You should have no trouble finding high end bats to spend on, and when looking cheap, I want to find some upside. That is what we have here with Pinder who will hopefully bat 2nd against a lefty. The Tigers Blaine Hardy is a slightly below average pitcher with no obvious skill. PInder is always a strikeout risk, but it’s not excessive with an 18.4% K rate from Hardy. What Pinder does have is a silly 64% hard hit rate against lefties, 48% for his career. Oakland also gets a Tigers bullpen with the 4th worst SIERA and 6th highest ERA in the league to pile on against in the late innings.