DFS Alerts

Astros top the board with a 5.4 implied run line against a pitcher prone to right-handed homers

The Houston Astros currently top the board with 5.4 implied runs in Kansas City against Jakob Junis. While he doesn’t appear to have a platoon split (batters from either side between .320-.325 wOBA), xwOBA pushes up RHBs 32 points to .352 for his career. This is bad news against the Astros. The team with the highest wRC+ in baseball over the last week (168) with just a 13 K% over that span come at a pitcher who has allowed 10 of 15 HRs to RHBs with an entirely right-handed top four, all of whom have at least a 130 wRC+ or better against RHP over the last calendar year. The only other RHB in the lineup is Evan Gattis (110 wRC+, .237 ISO), who has a 181 wRC+ over the last week and that’s just third best in the lineup behind Carlos Correa (274 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%) and Marwin Gonzalez (200 wRC+, 61.5 Hard%).

A potent Washington lineup faces the highest aEV (second highest xwOBA) on the board tonight

A lengthened Washington lineup sits at exactly five implied runs currently. They’ll face off against the highest aEV (89.9 mph) and second highest xwOBA (.374) on the board tonight in Toronto. While by actual wOBA, Aaron Sanchez has a platoon split issue (.372 vs LHBs, .315 vs RHBs) since last season, xwOBA sees no such issue. Batters from either side are at .372-3 with nearly equal ground ball rates around 50%. LHBs have a negative K-BB% against him this season, which makes stacking the best way to attack this to get credit for all of the runs the Nationals may score. It’s hard to argue against any of the first seven batters. Trea Turner (112 wRC+, .163 ISO) is the only one below a 130 wRC+ against RHBs over the last calendar year. He and Juan Soto (.138 ISO) are the only two below a .200 ISO. The remaining five are all also above a .350 xwOBA against RHP over the last calendar year.

Best Hitting Environment of the Slate

The Rangers are a viable stacking option tonight. They are facing a low-strikeout pitcher at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. On the season, Chad Bettis has allowed a .333 xwOBA to lefties and a .353 xwOBA to righties this season. The best time to play the Rangers is when they are facing a low-strikeout pitcher, as that has been their Achilles heel so far this season. Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar, Mazara, Adrian Beltre, and Joey Gallo all own a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Stacking in Cleveland

Even though Kyle Gibson has improved this season, the Indians are still one of my favorite stacks of the slate. They have such a great combination of speed and power and if they get to Gibson early, they should be able to feast on the Twins’ bullpen. On the season, Gibson has allowed a 36%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, each of the first five hitters in Cleveland’s projected lineup has a .380+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. To make them even more enticing, the Indians have a .451 wOBA against Gibson in the past.

Stacking in Cleveland

Even though Kyle Gibson has improved this season, the Indians are still one of my favorite stacks of the slate. They have such a great combination of speed and power and if they get to Gibson early, they should be able to feast on the Twins’ bullpen. On the season, Gibson has allowed a 36%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, each of the first five hitters in Cleveland’s projected lineup has a .380+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. To make them even more enticing, the Indians have a .451 wOBA against Gibson in the past.

Kyle Gibson may be better, but top of Cleveland lineup may be unstoppable

Kyle Gibson has been a formidable pitcher this year (24.9 K%, 3.93 SIERA, .321 xwOBA), but he runs into a buzz saw in Cleveland. Seven of nine batters in a lineup projected for 4.77 runs by Vegas have a 110 or better wRC+ with five running a .200+ ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Ironically, the sub-par bats bat in the fifth and sixth slots, making the top of the lineup the most potent (no surprise). Francisco Lindor (123 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (167 wRC+, .321 ISO) are generally always top overall bats at their position in all but the worst spots. Michael Brantley (144 wRC+, .213 ISO) bats between them at a lower cost. Edwin Encarnacion (142 wRC+, .284 ISO) has a -21 wRC+ and 25 Hard% over the last week and RHBs have a 54.2 GB% against Gibson since last season.

Point-Per-Dollar Hero

Gausman may have a high ERA, but his advanced statistics suggest some serious regression. In 13 starts, he has a 3.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 5%. His numbers are even better over his last two starts, which makes him one of the most appealing plays in tonight’s 15-game slate. The Marlins have struggled against right-handed pitching all season. In fact, their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .318 with a 22% strikeout rate against righties.

Elite Pitcher at a Discounted Price

Stripling continues to amaze this season, posting a 2.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a walk rate of 5%. He has a high ground ball rate and a low hard contact rate. When you combine all of that, he has become (dare I say) an elite pitcher. The best part is that he is still priced at a discount across the industry. He’s right there as one of the top point-per-dollar targets of the slate. He draws a favorable matchup against the Giants, whose projected lineup has a .302 xwOBA and a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

It’s no surprise to find the Yankees above five implied runs again at home tonight against Nathan Eovaldi. They’re not the top offense on the board, but within striking distance. Eovaldi threw six no-hit innings in his first start back from Tommy John surgery, but has looked more human in recent starts, though he did surpass 100 pitches last time out for the first time. He’s held RHBs to a .177 wOBA (.239 xwOBA) with a 13 Hard% so far. In fact, RHBs have never exceeded a .304 wOBA against him in a season. An expensive Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez (-30 wRC+, 12.5 Hard% last seven days) may not be the best values tonight. RHBs have just a .268 wOBA against him, but a 45.5 Hard%, .378 xwOBA and .342 career wOBA against him. Aaron Judge (169 wRC+, .343 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) along with Brett Gardner (120 wRC+, .165 ISO), Didi Gregorius (119 wRC+, .253 ISO) and Gregory Bird (108 wRC+, .289 ISO) may be the most interesting stacking combination, covering four of the top five spots in the order with only one exorbitant price tag.

Value in a well projected and affordable Pittsburgh lineup against a below average pitcher

The Pirates get Matt Harvey tonight, whom LHBs have a .418 wOBA, supported by a .415 xwOBA, against since last season. Every left-handed batter in a Pittsburgh lineup with a 4.81 implied run line is below $4K on DraftKings or $3.5K on FanDuel. Colin Moran (116 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top value third base bat, where most of this lineup is playable (RHBs .327 wOBA & xwOBA against Harvey). Josh Harrison (91 wRC+, .142 ISO) and Corey Dickerson (96 wRC+, .166 ISO) would seem solid values as well.

Reds stack top half of lineup with LHBs against a pitcher with a substantial platoon issue

Chad Kuhl has a 22.2 K% and a league average ERA and estimators, but LHBs have a .372 wOBA and 40.5 Hard% that’s supported by a .370 xwOBA since last season. Pittsburgh players fairly neutral towards LH power and while the Reds have a fairly modest 4.19 implied run line, they do have a number of potent bats from the left-hand side. That starts with Joey Votto (176 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Scooter Gennett (145 wRC+, .239 ISO) on the upper end of the price scale with Scott Schebler (103 wRC+, .234 ISO) and Tucker Barnhart (92 wRC+, .135 ISO) supplying more value at the top of the lineup.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Blue Jays and Royals have team bullpen FIPs above five over the last month

There are two pitchers making their first major league starts tonight. Jonathan Loaisiga might be a quality arm, but has shot through the Yankee system since returning from Tommy John surgery, despite not having exceeded five innings in a start this year. The Yankee bullpen is one of the best in baseball (2.67 FIP, 20.5 K-BB% last 30 days). Yohander Mendez has been dropping on prospect lists and has to pitch in a tough environment. The Rangers do have a decent pen behind him (3.47 FIP, 13.4 K-BB% last 30 days). No pitcher on tonight’s board is averaging less than five innings per start. The low men are Seth Lugo (84 pitches in his most recent start could push him to six innings in what might be a nice spot in Arizona), who backed by hot garbage (Mets 4.87 FIP, 10.7 K-BB% last 30 days and without Familia). Brent Suter rarely completes six innings. The Brewers have a 3.11 FIP and 20 K-BB% over the last month and Josh Hader has pitched one inning over the last three days. Matt Harvey, Derek Holland and Brandon McCarthy all also average less than 5.1 innings per start. The Reds have a 4.31 FIP and just a 6.0 K-BB% out of the pen over the last 30 days. The Giants are solid (3.00 FIP, 14.6 K-BB%). The Braves have a 4.32 FIP over the last month (lots of HRs), but a 15.9 K-BB%. Overall, the Mariners (2.66 FIP, 21.1 K-BB%), Astros (2.97 FIP, 24.2 K-BB%) and Cubs (2.69 FIP, 16.2 K-BB%) have been other top bullpens over the last month. Along with the Mets, Toronto (5.32 FIP, 10.7 K-BB%), Kansas City (5.18 FIP, 12 K-BB%) and Baltimore (4.74 FIP, 4.3 K-BB%) may actually be worse.

Mid-range value pitchers are led by tonight's xwOBA leader (.230)

There are several pitchers in the $8-$9K range or even lower, who may be preferable to higher priced arms tonight. Ross Stripling just misses the $10K club. has not allowed more than two runs in a start since making his last relief appearance to start May. He’s gone at least 6.2 innings in three of his last four starts and even if nobody believes he’ll sustain a 30+ K%, he’s been one of the top contact managers on the board with a .230 xwOBA well below any other pitcher with more than two starts and a 2.9% Barrels/BBE that’s best too. The Giants just lost another middle of the order bat, Dodger Stadium is the most negative run environment on the board, and San Francisco has a 17.4 K-BB% vs RHP. Seth Lugo starts his third game for the Mets. He struck out eight Yankees in six shutout innings in his most recent. The strikeout rate probably has upside to around 25% in a starting role and he has a five pitch arsenal that should play as a starter, even if the curveball is well ahead of anything else. His 84..6 mph aEV is second best on the board and while the Diamondbacks have been red hot, they still have 24.9 K% and 80 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Lugo costs just $6.4K on FanDuel. Brandon McCarthy has been better, not great, since upping his cutter usage. The most important thing is that he has the top matchup on the board against the Padres (82 wRC+, 25.6 K vs RHP) for a cost around $6K. Kevin Gausman has a 13 SwStr% that’s second best on the board (15.5% over the last 30 days is best) and a matchup with the Marlins. Jose Urena has a strikeout rate and ERA estimators around league average with a 50.8 GB%, but still costs less than $7K in Baltimore (80 wRC+, 17.8 K-BB%). Rick Porcello has at least pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start this year and is one of just six pitchers with more than two starts below a .300 xwOBA tonight. He’s a quality arm at a reasonable price in a somewhat neutral spot in Seattle. Zack Godley hasn’t been good, but still has a league average strikeout rate with a 50% GB rate and faces the Mets (31 wRC+, 32.1 K% last seven days). Jon Lester is flying well under his estimators, but has gone seven innings in three of four starts and has increased his strikeout rate to 24.2% over the last month. The Cardinals have right-handed power, but less at home and a 23 K% vs LHP in a negative run environment. Tyler Skaggs allows some loud contact (89.8 mph aEV) against an offense that hits the ball hard (27.2 Hard-Soft% vs LHP), but has strikeout upside against an offense with a 23.9 K% and 89 wRC+ against LHP.

Three high priced pitchers: a top pitcher, a top value and a potential unusable

There are only three pitchers who reach $10K on either site tonight (two on DraftKings). Their opponents have three of the four lowest implied run lines on the board. If the money is available to pay this far up, Corey Kluber is tonight’s top pitcher. He has completed seven innings in 10 of 14 starts and his strikeouts have increased over the last month (at least seven in five straight starts), in which he has a SIERA at exactly two. Despite the positive run environment, he has a board topping .230 xwOBA at home since last season. The Twins have some left-handed power and league average peripherals against RHP, but have been struggling (16.9 K-BB%, 6.9 HR/FB last week). James Paxton may be tonight’s top high priced value. He struck out 10 last time out, his fifth time in double digits and sixth time he’s completed at least seven innings in eight starts. His 31.4 K% and 13.2 SwStr% for the season both top the board, though contact has been louder than expected (89.1 mph aEV). He faces a Boston team that struggles with LHP (16.5 K-BB% with a split low 10.2 Hard-Soft%) in a negative run environment and seems to be under-priced between $10-10.7K on either site. Charlie Morton has just a 9.0 SwStr% and .342 xwOBA over the last month. He walked six in his last start and allowed multiple HRs in each of the two preceding it. The Royals have just a 31 wRC+ over the last week, but that still comes with just a 14.4 K%. They have no power (7.4 HR/FB at home, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but just don’t strike out (18% at home, 17.7% vs RHP). Morton may still be a top five overall pitcher, but the cost is too high, especially on DraftKings ($12.1K).

Value Chalk

Corey Dickerson is likely going to end up being a bit chalky – especially on FanDuel – and rightfully so in a matchup against Matt Harvey. Dickerson is one of the rare cheap guys that actually has a strong skill-set. CDick has a strong resume versus righties and has shown a ton of power versus them throughout his career (.242 ISO). While PNC is a pitcher’s park, lefty power has played close to average since 2014 so there’s no need to worry that the park will limit Dickerson’s upside.