DFS Alerts
Park Boost
Bour and Dietrich get a nice park boost against Kevin Gausman at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Both guys have strong splits against RHP (Dietrich: 114 wRC+, .181 ISO; Bour: 131 wRC+, .234 ISO) and provide some power upside – especially Bour – against Kevin Gausman who is allowing 1.64 HR/9 this year. Gausman has always struggled with the long ball as he owns a career 13.8% HR/FB and his propensity to give up HRs in bunches makes him a strong pitcher to target in GPPs.
Other tagged players: Justin Bour
Arlington Value
The Rangers have the highest implied run total (5.5) of the slate and Odor + DeShields are both ways to grab exposure to their offense for cheap. DeShields will likely draw the better spot in the order but Odor provides value at a weaker position. An interesting note on Odor: he leads the league with 10 bunts versus the shift this year. Leonys Martin is a long ways back at second on the list with only three bunts. While we’re not excited about bunting from a fantasy perspective you could argue his willingness to attack the shift gives him a slightly higher floor than other hitters with similar baseline ability.
Other tagged players: Delino DeShields Flashy
Loaisiga is the flashy cheap option as he’s shown tremendous strikeout upside (30% + strikeout rate) in his limited innings pitched in the Minors. The biggest concern with Loasiga is that he’s going to need to be very efficient as it’s unlikely he’ll have a very long leash – Seige had a good note on this in the expert survey: “Jonathan Loaisiga will be a popular cheap play today but be careful, he hasn’t thrown more than 5 innings all year in the minors and hasn’t thrown over 77 pitches since early May.” There’s still upside in Loaisiga’s price tag even if you project him for ~ 80 pitches but there’s not much wiggle room for him if he gets into trouble early.
Average
Brandon McCarthy is pretty average and that’s about all you need for his matchup + price tag. There’s a handful of cheap options to consider (Reynaldo Lopez, Brent Suter, Jonathan Loaisiga) on Friday’s main slate but McCarthy edges out the competition due to a matchup with the Padres poor offense (25.6 K%, 82 wRC+ vs RHP). McCarthy himself doesn’t give you much strikeout upside (career 17.6 K%) but this is a good run prevention spot for him and the opponent boosts his strikeout floor a tad.
No Coors, No Problem
We rarely target Colorado bats away from Coors Field, but this is about the next best thing with a matchup against a mediocre rookie LHP in Arlington. Texas is generally a hitters’ haven in the summer time, and there is absolutely nothing to fear against a rookie pitcher that seemingly has little in terms of an MLB-relevant skill set. He struggled in Triple-A, and there’s no reason to expect miracles. The Colorado RHBs are all strong plays tonight, even away from Coors, with Arenado and Story topping the list. The full team stack is also in play, as this game has by far the highest Vegas total of the night at 10 1/2 runs. It’s the most stackable overall game of the night, and the Texas side has some appeal as well.
Other tagged players: Ian Desmond, Trevor Story
Target Those Left-Handed Bats, Part 2
The Pittsburgh/Cincinnati game is a fascinating one tonight, as we have two pitchers going who both really struggle to get left-handed hitters out. While Chad Kuhl has a bit more in terms of skills than his counterpart in Matt Harvey, he is still attackable with LHBs. His ground ball rate is down to just 30% against lefties this year, and his hard contact rate is high. That’s good news for power bats. I love Scott Schebler as long as he continues to hit out of the leadoff spot here, while Gennett and Votto are strong options in the middle of the order. If you need more of a value pick, Tucker Barnhart is a fine option, especially on DK where you need a catcher. The only downside here is the park factor, as it would be nice if this game were in Cincinnati, but beggars can’t be choosers!
Other tagged players: Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart, Joey Votto Target Those Left-Handed Bats, Part 1
The Pittsburgh/Cincinnati game is a fascinating one tonight, as we have two pitchers going who both really struggle to get left-handed hitters out. Matt Harvey is the lesser of the two arms, and he has had massive struggles against LHBs for a few years now. He has allowed a .406 wOBA and 40%+ hard contact rate to lefties this year, and Pittsburgh should have four lefties in the middle of their order tonight. While they aren’t the sexiest of DFS names, Austin Meadows is a young bat with a lot of potential, and the other hitters will come a little bit cheaper. I like them as an affordable stack this evening.
Other tagged players: Colin Moran, Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell A Great Home Matchup Makes This an Easy SP #2 Choice
For years, we have seen flashes of upside from Gausman. He’s actually started to show a little more consistency this year, too, with a decent 22% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate to go along with a SIERA and xFIP in the mid-threes. This is the pitcher we all expected a few years ago. He remains reasonably priced for DFS purposes, and the home matchup against the Marlins is a great one. I’ll happily plug Gausman into a lineup in any format tonight, and he makes for a great SP #2 option on DK/FDRAFT.
A Top GPP Arm
Corey Kluber is obviously a strong play tonight, but you have to pay for the safety net that he provides. In tournaments, I like the idea of taking a shot on the upside of James Paxton. A lot of people will be scared away by a matchup against a Red Sox team that doesn’t strike out a ton. However, Paxton has the ability to perform in any matchup, and I’ll gladly take some tournament shots if he is going to be under-owned. His skills are elite, with a 111/25 K/BB ratio on the year, and he has shut down a tough Houston offense twice. I don’t know if I would pull the trigger in cash games, but the GPP appeal is obvious.
Power And Contact
Detroit’s Mike Fiers is a strike throwing pitcher with a history of reverse splits power issues. This season he has allowed 44% fly balls and 37% hard hits to righties with 1.49 HR/9 and in 2017 it was a 1.98 HR/9. Jose Abreu has the highest contact ability of the White Sox righties and hits for both average and power with a history of success against fly ball pitchers.
The Pitcher To Attack
It’s Matt Harvey night in America, and you know what that means…play those lefties! Harvey has picked up where he left off last year with a 15.3% K rate, 42% fly balls and 38% hard hits to lefties leading to a .406 wOBA and .309 ISO so far this season. Every Pirates lefty is in play, but Corey Dickerson has a crazy low 10.2% strikeout rate vs righties this season and is affordably priced on all sites.
The Bat To Spend On
If I can only pay up for one batter on this slate, it would be Nolan Arenado. He is facing a rookie pitcher in Yohander Mendez who was far below average at Triple-A, and as a lefty, he has to deal with the outlandish splits of Arenado. Since the start of 2017, Arenado has a .382 ISO and .523 wOBA against lefties with just 11.2% strikeouts.
Ace At A Discount
I’m torn between Corey Kluber and James Paxton as the high end Core Play tonight. Where I’m not torn is that I would absolutely play Kluber first in cash games if I have the salary. If you can swing it, do it, Kluber is the most trustable pitcher. But, Paxton comes at far too big of a discount to ignore. He has a higher strikeout rate than Kluber at 31.4% and while this matchup looks tough at first glance, Boston really hasn’t been anything special against left-handed pitching. Even with Mookie Betts back in the lineup, tonights projected lineup has a 22.6% K rate against lefties with just a .140 ISO and .303 wOBA, both in the bottom third of the league.
Can't Argue With These Skills
Stripling has done nothing but dominate, and while it’s still a relatively small sample size, there’s not a single red flag anywhere in his skill set. His 30.1% strikeout rate is the 3rd highest on this slate, his 4.6% walks are the 2nd lowest on the slate and his 23.7% hard contact allowed is the lowest mark, not just on the slate, but of any starter in baseball. Since he has settled into the rotation in the last month, he has a 35% K rate, 1.7% walks and a 1.15 ERA and 1.99 SIERA. His salary has been creeping up, but its still not nearly high enough to match these skills.
Nelson Cruz hits LHP (154 wRC+ last calendar) and one in particular very well
David Price is in a tough spot (Mariners 115 wRC+ vs RHP, 142 wRC+ last seven days), but is the second best and second most expensive pitcher on the board (27.2 K%, 3.64 SIERA, and .303 xwOBA last 30 days) and will be very difficult to completely avoid tonight, especially for DraftKings players with multiple lineups. He’s handled RHBs well enough (.305 wOBA, .328 xwOBA since last season), but Nelson Cruz (154 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has been hot (227 wRC+, 57.9 Hard% last seven days) and has some interesting personal numbers against Price. He has four HRs in 43 PAs and a 93.4 mph aEV on batted balls recorded by Statcast, but with a -8.4 average launch angle, suggesting a lot of balls pounded into the ground in addition to the ones that go over the fence. Jean Segur is now up to a 140 wRC+ against LHP over the last calendar year as well.
Other tagged players: David Price, Jean Segura