DFS Alerts
Attacking a Struggling Ace?
It would have been unfathomable to think this a month ago, but Carlos Martinez looks quite vulnerable at the moment. When you combine his control problems with his traditional issues at getting left-handed hitters out, the Cubs’ lefties rise up the list on a short slate. While I will not go out of my way to attack Martinez, guys like Zobrist and Rizzo are fine options here. No, I’m not a believer in Jason Heyward after one hot week, so I’m not playing him. However, Zobrist provides a nice mid-range salary at the top of the lineup, and he cracks core play status for me on this short slate.
A Fine Play for Salary Savings
If you are looking for value tonight, give John Ryan Murphy a look. He is very cheap and has quietly put up great numbers against LHP this year, to the tune of a .286 average, .403 wOBA, and .387 ISO. Assuming he draws the cleanup spot as usual against a southpaw, he’s a great play on all sites — even those where you don’t have to roster a catcher. He often gets overlooked, and while that won’t be the case on a four game slate, he’s still a great option in all formats.
The Best Hitter on the Slate
Steven Matz holds left-handed bats in check very well, but he has allowed RHBs to post a 37% hard contact rate and a wOBA close to .340 this season. While those numbers aren’t awful, it’s impossible to look past how locked in Goldschmidt is right now. The guy is raking, making his slow start a distant memory. He has raked at home against left-handers for his career, and here are his current splits in the month of June: .456 AVG, .530 OBP, 1.495 OPS, 7 HR, 15 RBI. He had 7 home runs in April and May combined. He’s back. He is the top overall hitter on this slate in my opinion.
The Wright Value Pick
How about that knuckleball! Steven Wright has been a revelation for the Red Sox this year, but I will caution against expecting him to keep up this kind of pace. His SIERA and xFIP are both about three runs higher than his low ERA, but the unpredictability of a knuckleball can be a blessing as well as a curse. Wright does a good job of limiting hard contact, and I don’t mind the park factor or the opponent today. While the walks are a problem and the strikeouts are merely average, but there’s little else to like from a value perspective, so give him a look as your SP #2 on multi-pitcher sites.
The Clear Saturday Ace
I am not a big Patrick Corbin guy, but you almost have to play him tonight on the short four-game evening slate. The Mets rank dead last in baseball with almost laughable splits against left-handed pitching this year that include a .257 team wOBA and .092 team ISO. Both rank significantly worse than any other team in the league. Oh, and they also strike out at the second highest clip against lefties. Even though he has regressed since his hot start to the year, Corbin still owns a 32% strikeout rate an 14% swinging strike rate, both of which are elite figures. His SIERA and xFIP both sit at under 3.00, and the only negative is his high hard contact rate. That hasn’t affected his results yet, and I wouldn’t expect this matchup to be the one that does him in. Play Corbin this evening in a great home matchup.
Unlucky
Due to the nature of the slate you’re going to have to roster a hitter against a strong pitcher – such is the case with Carpenter versus Kyle Hendricks. Carpenter isn’t the “top overall hitter” on the slate but he’s the guy making his way the most often into my early lineup builds on all sites due to his positional eligibility and positional scarcity. A lot has been made about how “unlucky” Carpenter has been this year but it’s still notable that his gap between wOBA (.332) and xWOBA (.404) remains massive. Put another way, Carpenter’s .291 BABIP is actually quite unlucky for how little soft contact he’s been making (7.5 Soft%). Should Carpenter continue to hit the ball as hard as he has been (90 mph average exit velocity; 8.0 barrels/plate appearance) he should see success both in real life and fantasy.
Pitch Type Success
After Matz, Steven Wright is the next pitcher in line you want to target. Wright, like all knuckleballers is a high variance pitcher – when he’s on, he’s lights out; when the knuckleball isn’t moving, it’s HR city. High variance isn’t something we typically want to attack aggressively in cash games but the short slate leaves us with limited option. While we’re inherently dealing with a small sample when it comes to knuckleballs, it is notable that Nelson Cruz has had relative success against that pitch type over the course of his career (4.9 wKN – knuckleball runs above average).
Concentrated Chase
Saturday’s main slate cash pool is going to be highly concentrated with Arizona Diamondbacks as they square off against one of the worst pitchers of the slate in Steven Matz. Despite a 3.53 ERA, Matz has struggled this year – he’s already given up 11 HRs in just over 58 IP and 20.4% of the fly balls opponents hit against him go for HRs. Murphy has a solid offensive skill-set when he has the platoon advantage (105 wRC+, .187 ISO) and headlines a weak C position on DraftKings and has a nice price tag on FanDuel.
Posh Matchup
Corbin is clearly the top option on Saturday’s short main slate. He has been elite this year with a 2.90 SIERA, 31.8% strikeout rate, and 13.6 SwStr% and gets a posh matchup against a Mets offense that has been downright embarrassing against southpaws in 2018 (26.4 K%; 62 wRC+). While his price tag is hefty on DraftKings, it’s not restrictive – especially if you pitch a too cheap Alex Wood ($6,700) as your SP2.
The SP2 Decision
The SP2 decision is an interesting one for Saturday’s main slate. DraftKings put some intriguing price tags on all three of Alex Wood, Madison Bumgarner, and Carlos Martinez. Although Carlos Martinez has been elite in limiting hard contact – he has allowed the least barrels per plate appearance (1.2) and third lowest average exit velocity (84.5 mph) of all pitcher’s with at least 150 batted ball events – his control issues (13.6% walk rate) make him too risky of a cash game option in a tough matchup against the Cubs. Bumgarner is an intriguing option in his third game back from the DL as he’s clearly a better real life pitcher than Wood but he’s yet to show strikeout stuff (12.2% strikeout rate) since his return. That leaves us with an underpriced, yet maddening, Alex Wood. Wood’s advanced stats are extremely good this year – 3.49 SIERA, 11.2 SwStr% – but the continual short leash Dave Roberts has him on limits his upside. That said, Wood does have the best matchup of the three options and the best price tag to go along with it. He’s my favorite SP2 option on multi-SP sites.
The Dodger (157 wRC+, 27.1 HR/FB last seven days) face a lefty who's allowed 35 HRs to RHBs since last year
Aside from potentially a few select bats in Arizona (Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Nimmo) or Oakland (Mike Trout, Justin Upton), the red hot Dodgers (157 wRC+, 27.1 HR/FB last seven days) should be the west coast offense drawing the most interest tonight. They have a 4.78 implied run line against Derek Holland, who has improved on his .408 wOBA allowed against RHBs last season with 26 HRs (41.3 Hard%), but only marginally (.351 wOBA, nine HRs, 44.2 Hard% this season). Justin Turner (224 wRC+, .393 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may go under-owned with Nolan Arenado facing a lefty in Texas. He has a 218 wRC+ over the last week. Chris Taylor (113 wRC+, .191 ISO) and Kike Hernandez (116 wRC+, .217 ISO) should be strong bets as well should they remain in the top half of the lineup. The Dodgers have not yet confirmed tonight’s lineup.
Other tagged players: Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Derek Holland
A nearly risk free Friday forecast
Friday night’s forecast is about as risk free as one can hope for on a one-game slate. Only one game with even a chance of delay. Read the full update on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can stay updated until lock with Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Chad Bettis gets a park upgrade, but not much of one, while the Rangers throw six LHBs at his reverse platoon split
The Rangers host the Rockies in what’s the most positive run environment on the board tonight. Chad Bettis is not a terrible pitcher, but the park pushes the Rangers above five implied runs to the fourth spot on the board (5.17). Bettis is a reverse platoon pitcher (RHBs .363 wOBA, .341 xwOBA) with a league average ground ball rate against RHBs as well. The Texas answer to this is to swap lineup spots for Joey Gallo (123 wRC+, .320 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Rougned Odor (62 wRC+, .179 ISO) in the sixth and seventh spots. A normally balanced lineup will attack with just three RHBs tonight (four now with Isiah Kiner-Falefa replacing Mazara) and aside from Shin-Soo Choo (119 wRC+, .205 ISO), Adrian Beltre (123 wRC+, .195 ISO) and Delino DeShields (69 wRC+, .071 ISO) might be the bats to have exposure towards, covering three of the top four spots. Beltre has a 213 wRC+ and 63.6 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, Shin-soo Choo, Delino DeShields, Isiah Kiner-Falefa Nomar Mazara (sore wrist) scratched Friday
Mazara has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Friday’s matchup with the Colorado Rockies due to left wrist soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who will play second base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Jurickson Profar up to third and Rougned Odor up to fifth, respectively, while Shin-Soo will patrol center field and relinquish the designated hitter duties to Odor. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Rangers order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Chad Bettis at home this evening.
As reported by: John Blake via Twitter
Rockies are not at Coors, but a rookie lefty in Texas might be close enough
The Rockies have a 5.33 implied run line on Friday night that’s second best on the board. No, there’s no game at Coors, but Texas may be the next best thing and the Rangers are starting a rookie who came into the season with a 50 Future Value Grade and was named the #4 prospect in the organization, but a more recent update has downgraded him to a 45 FV Grade after just a 7.5 K-BB% in 10 AAA starts. The 23 year-old southpaw, Yohander Mendez, also offers the Rockies a chance at a pitcher from their more optimal split with a 92 wRC+ and 16.6 HR/FB against lefties that the park turns into a serious threat. Nolan Arenado (216 wRC+, .367 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Trevor Story (160 wRC+, .359 ISO) and DJ LeMahieu (152 wRC+, .242 ISO) are three of the top overall bats on the board. While Arenado is struggling (-44 wRC+, 11.1 Hard% despite just two strikeouts in 23 PAs over the last week), Story (314 wRC+, 54.6 Hard%, three HRs) most certainly is not.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, Yohander Mendez