DFS Alerts
Front of the Toronto order (5.1 implied runs) could do some damage against David Hess (44.2% 95+ mph EV)
David Hess has allowed just one earned run over 12.2 innings over his last two starts, but with four walks and just five strikeouts. He has struck out just 12 of 95 batters faced so far, though he does have a reasonable 9.4 SwStr%. His 44.2% 95+ mph EV is second highest on the board. While he has over a 100 point difference in his wOBA split between LH and RH batters, xwOBA closes the gap to 27 points. In a positive run environment, the Blue Jays have a 5.1 implied run line that’s second best on the board. There are some outs in the second half of this order, but the first four seem a decent bet to do some damage tonight. Curtis Granderson (120 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Yangervis Solarte (112 wRC+, .216 ISO), Teoscar Hernandez (128 wRC+, .292 ISO) and Justin Smoak (127 wRC+, .259 ISO) are all moderately priced.
Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, David Hess
Jalen Beeks has a 29.2 K-BB% through 10 AAA starts this season
Twenty-four year old Jalen Beeks hasn’t been featured in many prospect lists, but his AAA numbers certainly jump out with a 29.2 K-BB% through 10 starts on the back of a 15.9 K-BB% in 17 starts at the same level last season. He’s struck out at least six batters in every start this season and has faced at least 25 batters in three straight. The Detroit lineup (4.17 implied runs) has been fairly strong against LHP (111 wRC+, 18.3 K%), which complicates decision making here. Should he falter or if Boston should decide to limit his workload, one of the better bullpens in baseball waits behind him, tempering interest in Detroit bats, though Nick Castellanos (184 wRC+, .285 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Jeimer Candelario (165 wRC+, .280 ISO) and Miguel Cabrera (132 wRC+, .170 ISO) can all at least be considered. Beeks is certainly worth a dart throw for $5.7K on DraftKings though too.
Other tagged players: Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Cabrera Manny Machado is surrounded by right-handed salary relief against an occasionally HR prone lefty
Jaime Garcia has allowed four runs or more in fewer than four innings in three of his last five starts. He has, at times, struggled with both walks (9.8%) and HRs (14.8 HR/FB) this season with a ground ball rate that’s down to 42.4%. RHBs have a .346 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) against him since last season. The Orioles have a 4.4 implied run line that’s right in the middle of tonight’s board and will attack him with the platoon advantage in eight out of nine spots tonight. Manny Machado (132 wRC+, .267 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the top bat in the lineup, but nobody else in the lineup is above $3.8K on either site. Salary relief can be found with Trey Mancini (100 wRC+, .143 ISO), Adam Jones (121 wRC+, .137 ISO), Danny Valencia (115 wRC+, .217 ISO) or Jonathan Schoop (154 wRC+, .246 ISO). Austin Wynns (103 wRC+ at AAA) costs just $2.5K or less behind the plate and could be a competent punt behind the plate as well.
Other tagged players: Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Danny Valencia, Jonathan Schoop, Jaime Garcia Rays lack the left-handed bats with which to attack Mike Leake
The Tampa Bay Rays are second from the bottom of the board with 3.93 implied runs at home against Mike Leake. Leake has a board high .392 xwOBA and 90.4 mph aEV, but both have been dropping with a string of solid performances over the last month in which he has a 56.6 GB%. He shut down these Rays for seven innings, striking out eight of 25 batters in his last start, throwing five different pitches between 10-33% of the time. The cutter has not been a great pitch for him (.405 xwOBA), but it’s one he throws frequently and probably still should against the Rays, who are worst in baseball against it by Fangraphs weighted metrics (-12.6). Leake has a standard split (RHBs .320 xwOBA, LHBs .370 xwOBA since last year), though the Rays lack competent left-handed bats to attack him with. They’re hoping Jake Bauers (126 wRC+ at AAA) fills that role. He bats in the middle of the lineup and costs just $3K on DraftKings. Leake is actually the third most expensive pitcher on either site at just $7.5K.
Other tagged players: Jakob Bauers Red Sox have the top implied run line on the main slate (5.32) vs pitcher with the lowest aEV (86.4 mph)
Matt Boyd allowed two HRs in his last start, but it was his first multiple HR game of the season and he tied a season high, allowing four runs for only the third time this year. His HR/FB has decreased each year in the majors and he’s able to support that with an 86.4 mph aEV that’s best on the board tonight (his .297 xwOBA is behind only Gerrit Cole). Regardless, the Boston Red Sox (still without Mookie Betts) have a board high 5.32 implied run line. It’s no doubt a difficult run environment and J.D. Martinez (164 wRC+, .430 xwOBA, .300 ISO, 52.8 Hard% vs LHP last calendar year) remains an elite bat, but Rafael Devers (129 wRC+, .188 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .150 ISO against southpaws over that span. His xwOBA (.301) is 66 points lower than his actual in these circumstances though, yet it’s still the fourth highest mark in this lineup. Xander Bogaerts (121 wRC+, .362 xwOBA, .121 ISO) is certainly a usable bat at a tough position as well. He has a 200 wRC+ over the last week. Christian Vazquez (79 wRC+, .125 ISO) could serve as a punt catching option (312 wRC+ last seven days) for less than $3K on a small slate too, but Boyd may not be the punching bag Vegas expects him to be here.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez, Rafael Devers, Matthew Boyd Ryne Stanek and Austin Pruitt both have more trouble with same-handed batters
Ryne Stanek will start the game for the Rays and work through the middle part of Seattle order, which is predominantly right-handed, most likely. It’s expected he will then give way to Austin Pruitt, who should pitch the majority of the innings. Pruitt has a reverse split (RHBs .354 wOBA, LHBs .308 wOBA since last season) that comes with an .8.6 point difference in his ground ball rate as well. The interesting thing is that Stanek has a reverse split in his limited big league work as well (RHBs .433 wOBA with all eight HRs he’s surrendered in 88 PAs). Nelson Cruz (137 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top bat in the lineup and the hottest one as well (214 wRC+, 55.6 Hard% last seven days). His 94.3 mph aEV this season overall is sixth best among those with at least 100 BBEs.
Other tagged players: Austin Pruitt, Ryne Stanek Daily Bullpen Alert: Toronto and Oakland pens may be most likely to get in work tonight
Coincidentally, almost all of the starters on Thursday’s board averaging much less than six innings per start appear on the afternoon slate. Jaime Garcia is the only pitcher on the main five game slate tonight who has averaged less than 5.2 IP per start this season (not counting what the Rays are doing) and he is in one of the higher upside spots on the board against the Baltimore offense. The bullpen behind him is bottom six in terms of FIP (4.28), but more mediocre in terms of their 13.6 K-BB%. This represents a tendency to allow HRs and while their 11.3 HR/FB is not bad at all in the current environment, the Toronto pen easily has the lowest ground ball rate in the majors 36.4%. No other team is within two percentage points. If there is a strength to the Baltimore offense, it’s power production. Other spots where pens could have a high workload are with pitchers making their first starts of the season. Paul Blackburn has faced just 19 batters at any level all season, returning from the 60 day DL with a forearm issue. The Oakland bullpen grades similarly to the Toronto one with a 4.18 FIP, 12.7 K-BB% and some HR issues (42.9 GB%, 12.6 HR/FB) despite a power friendly home park. Unfortunately for the opposing offense, power is far from a strength for the Royals. Jalen Beeks makes his major league debut for the Red Sox. He’s faced at least 25 batters in each of his last three AAA starts and the Boston bullpen is a deterrent at a 3.42 FIP and 16.3 K-BB%, but top quarter marks in baseball.
Attack The Strikeouts
If you listened to the Morning Grind podcast today, you already know my love for Jalen Beeks. As a Red Sox fan, I try to keep track of the prospects, and I really like the off-speed stuff for Beeks. His changeup is above average, and his breaking ball grades out really well. I’m always worried when the fastball is the third best pitch though. Still, Beeks has a 12.78 K/9 in AAA and a 35.4% strikeout rate with a 13.1% swinging strike rate in AAA this season. With the limited options on this slate, I’m willing to take a chance on the strikeout upside.
Keep Stacking Oakland with Blind Faith
The A’s are one of the top stacking options once again. They draw an excellent matchup against a fly-ball pitcher in Jason Hammel, who has allowed a .424 xwOBA to lefties and a .347 xwOBA to righties this season. He also has a massive 44% hard contact rate. We know the A’s lineup is full of fly-ball hitters, so we could see some fireworks in this one. Matt Olson has a .406 xwOBA with a 55% hard contact rate against righties this season.
Righties in Fenway
Matt Boyd has somehow managed to hold both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season, even though he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. His strikeout rate is well below the league average and he doesn’t have the best control. The Red Sox lineup looks awfully weak at the moment, but they are playing at home against a hittable lefty, so I’ll take my chances. Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez are the best plays individually, as they both boast a .360+ xwOBA against southpaws.
Major League Debut
Beeks is making his major league debut tonight against the Tigers. He’s the team’s sixth overall prospect and has shown some tremendous upside in the minors this season — 2.98 FIP with a strikeout rate of 35% and a walk rate of 6%. These pitching debuts typically don’t go as planned, but we have very few options to choose from in this slate. Beeks has plenty of upside at this price point and I like that he’s getting respect from the betting markets as a -170 favorite against the Tigers.
No Choice but the Chalk
Cole is the clear chalk of tonight’s slate. Even though he’s pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark, we don’t have any direct pivots off of him. This is a case where you either play two cheap pitchers and load up on bats or eat the Cole chalk and differentiate elsewhere. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 2.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 38%. Even though this isn’t the best ballpark, the projected lineup for the Rangers has a has a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Searching For Value
The Rays present some solid value tonight, and we get a little power upside from Jakob Bauers. He should draw the start tonight after getting called up. Bauers is hitting .279 with a .356 wOBA and a 126 wRC+ in AAA this season. Mike Leake is someone we can attack, yet with limited pitchers on this slate, I could see him getting some ownership. Leake may get a lot of groundballs but he doesn’t strike out anyone out. He has a 12.2% strikeout rate against lefties with a .312 wOBA and a 36.4% hard hit rate, so Bauers is a nice source of salary relief.
A Top Offense To Target
There is not a lot to love with offense tonight, and Curtis Granderson is just too cheap, especially on FanDuel, for a leadoff hitter on one of the top offenses to target tonight. The biggest flaw in Granderson’s game is strikeouts, but he’s facing a low strikeout pitcher in David Hess, and one with a fly ball lean that adds to Granderson’s power upside. Even though Granderson is not what he once was, he still carries a 40% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching.
Dennis Santana scratched Thursday; Daniel Hudson will start in his place
Santana is an extremely late scratch from his scheduled start in Thursday’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates due to a presently unspecified reason. There’s yet to be any confirmation whether Santana will pitch in relief at some point this afternoon or if the late change in the Los Angeles Dodgers starter is injury related, but regardless, Daniel Hudson will draw the start on the mound despite pitching out of the bullpen each of the last days. This means that his “start” should be expected to relatively brief and the Dodgers will likely be forced to resort to a full-blown bullpen game if Santana is indeed unable to absorb a handful of innings because of an injury.
As reported by: Alana Rizzo via Twitter