DFS Alerts
Should Hit Fifth Or Sixth
If you’re paying up for Cole, you’re going to need some value tonight. I talked about Sam Travis yesterday, and I’m going right back to the well tonight. He had a .408 wOBA with a 18.8% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate in 48 PAs against lefties last season. Travis also hit over .370 in that span. Matt Boyd is a fly ball pitcher, which presents solid upside for the Red Sox tonight in this ballpark. The lefty is allowing 36.1% hard contact to right-handed hitters this season.
Vegas run line for the Cardinals has been active this morning
Within just the last hour or two the Vegas run line for the Cardinals has shot up from 4.99 to 5.4 and overtook the Twins for tops on the early afternoon board. It has since dropped back down to 5.07 (still second best). Trevor Richards last pitched in the majors on April 25th, striking out 10 of 18 Dodgers faced before being optioned out. That performance gave him a 22.8 K% with an 8.0 SwStr% for the season with a .362 xwOBA and ERA estimators above four and a half. He failed to complete five innings in four of his five starts and is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. That said, he has completed six innings in every one of his starts since being sent down (six of them) with a 21.9 K-BB%. He’s nearly an interesting contrarian secondary DraftKings play at $5.5K if this line hadn’t shot up. The Cardinals do have some outs in the bottom portion of this lineup. Unfortunately, during his major league stay, RHBs have a .372 wOBA and .403 xwOBA (43.2 Hard%) against him. The first five batters in the St Louis order all exceed a 115 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Jose Martinez (122 wRC+, .155 ISO) is the only one below a .190 ISO over that span. Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham and Marcell Ozuna all have a 130 wRC+ or better.
Other tagged players: Trevor Richards, Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna
Miles Mikolas and Jose Berrios have an identical 86.1 mph aEV
The Miami lineup that Miles Mikolas will face looks even more appetizing than normal this afternoon with J.T. Riddle (56 wRC+ vs RHP last calendar year) batting fifth. They have a board low 3.6 implied run line this afternoon. Mikolas costs nearly as much as Jose Berrios on either site and can rival him in terms of workload (seven innings or more in five of 11 starts) and contact management (identical 86.1 mph aEVs), while owning the better matchup (Marlins 82 wRC+. 16.6 K-BB% on the road, 81 wRC+, 16.9 K-BB% vs RHP). Where they separate is in terms of strikeouts. Mikolas has an 18.5 K% and 9.0 SwStr% that are both a bit below average, though he’s only allowed three HRs since his first start and may be the safer play with a likely smaller range of potential outcomes than Berrios. Either is a perfectly reasonable choice this afternoon. Mikolas has been dominant against same-handed batters but does have a .330 xwOBA against LHBs. Derek Dietrich (122 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been red hot (283 wRC+, 55 Hard% last seven days) and gives cheap first base option Justin Bour (137 wRC+, .246 ISO) potentially rare RBI opportunities.
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour, Jose Berrios James Shields has completed seven innings in four straight, while allowing just nine total runs
The Twins have the top implied run line on the board (5.33) against James Shields, who has completed seven innings in four straight with a total of nine runs allowed and a perfectly league average 12.1 K-BB% over that span, though he did allow three HRs in his last start. Additionally, the Twins run out sort of a stars and scrubs lineup that has some outs in it after the first four. That said, each of the four own a wRC+ above 115 and ISO above .215 against RHP over the last calendar year. Eddie Rosario is finally commanding a price tag commiserate with his performance (154 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). This is a spot where players should strongly considering stacking the top portion of this lineup, but it might not be a complete surprise if Shields was able to show some competence against the bottom of this order.
Other tagged players: James Shields Just Too Cheap
Once you stick Gerrit Cole in your lineup, the search for savings starts in the Baltimore-Toronto game. The Blue Jays Jaime Garcia has lost his ground ball ability to right-handed batters, and is average at best at this point, and that’s probably being too nice. Danny Valencia has always hit well against left-handed pitching, and should see a middle of the lineup spot at a very low salary. He is once again showing strong plate skills against lefties and has power, on base and RBI upside in this matchup.
A Top Offense To Target
Through his first 23 big league innings, Baltimore’s David Hess has a silly low 12.6% K rate while allowing 49% fly balls. Justin Smoak has big power upside with a .259 ISO against righties and a home run once every 14.7 AB since the start of 2017. His patience at the plate makes up for his moderate strikeout risk, and unless Hess suddenly finds some strikeout ability, we can expect base runners ahead of Smoak with plenty of balls in play and power upside.
Jose Berrios has gone at least seven innings in half of his starts this year
Jose Berrios allowed four runs last time out against Cleveland and has allowed nine HRs over his last eight starts, but he’s completed seven innings or better in half of his 12 starts this year and has at least seven strikeouts in four straight. This pushes him to the highest price tag on the board against the White Sox, who have a 3.67 implied run line that’s second lowest. His .292 xwOBA is second best on the board this afternoon, while his .261 xwOBA at home since last season is tops for the entire day. While the cost is not ideal and the White Sox do have a 100 wRC+ against RHP, the combination of workload, contact management and some strikeout upside is probably unparalleled on this board, while the White Sox also have a 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP. Contrarian plays could consider Yoan Moncada (124 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) or Daniel Palka (115 wRC+, .267 ISO) for less than $4K each on either site against a pitcher who does occasionally have issues with LHBs (.332 xwOBA since last year).
Other tagged players: Yoan Moncada, Daniel Palka Tyler Mahle has allowed multiple HRs in four straight home starts
Tyler Mahle attacks with his fastball nearly 70% of the time. He’s generated a 22.3 K% this way, but also 13 HRs in 12 starts. As one might expect, the issue is even worse at home, where he’s allowed multiple HRs in four straight starts. LHBs have a .394 wOBA, .381 xwOBA, 44 Hard% and 38.8 GB% against him since last year. Charlie Blackmon (138 wRC+, .381 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is one of the top bats on the board and players should consider home run hunting with Carlos Gonzalez (114 wRC+, .207 ISO) at a much cheaper cost. Nolan Arenado (155 wRC+, .236 ISO) costs $5K or more on either site against a pitcher who has been better against RHBs (..290 wOBA, .320 xwOBA, 30.3 Hard%, 44.2 GB%).
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Tyler Mahle Dennis Santana exceeded a 30% strikeout rate in 50 combined innings at AA and AAA this season
Dennis Santana made his major league debut in Coors, pitching 3.2 innings out of the pen after the Dodgers used a LH “opener” to match up with Colorado LHBs. He struck out four of 19 batters, but allowed five runs on six hits. The 22 year-old converted SS was graded the number eight prospect in the Dodger system this season less than a month ago, but with just a 45 Future Value grade. He’s exceeded a 30% strikeout rate in 50 combined innings at AA and AAA this season. This matchup will be differently difficult for him in that the Pirates have just a 17.7 K% at home and 19.5 K% vs RHP. However, that comes with HR/FB rates of 7.9% and 9.4%. There may be some upside in this arm for just $4.9K on DraftKings if paying up for Berrios or Mikolas as well. The Pirates have a modest 4.2 implied run line.
Tyler Anderson's 32.8 GB% may not play well in one of the most power friendly parks in baseball
The Reds have a 4.57 implied run line that’s currently third best on the afternoon slate, though they are running out several bench players against Tyler Anderson today. Anderson has an ERA and FIP just above five and his problems haven’t been limited to Coors. There is some improvement, but five of his 11 HRs have come on the road and his 32.8 GB% is not a feature that should be expected to play well in one of the most power friendly parks in baseball in Cincinnati. He doesn’t have much of a split with batters from either side owning a wOBA in the .340s since last season (xwOBA drags both sides down around 30 points and gives him a slightly normal split). Eugenio Suarez (163 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Joey Votto (120 wRC+, .160 ISO) stand out as the top bats in the middle of the order, but both are quite expensive. Adam Duvall (112 wRC+, .289 ISO) is a cheaper power play, but has just a 2 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Tyler Anderson, Adam Duvall Jameson Taillon is the least expensive pitcher facing an offense with an implied run line below four this afternoon
Jameson Taillon is the least expensive pitcher (around $8K on either site) facing a team with an implied run line below four (Dodgers 3.8) on the afternoon slate. He is above average by peripherals (15.5 K-BB%) and manages contact well enough to generate an xwOBA below .300. In fact, he tops the afternoon board with a .284 xwOBA and a 52.9 GB%. The overall results and workload is sometimes hit or miss, but he’s coming off eight shutout innings in St Lous and the overall numbers are favorable in a winnable spot, though the Dodgers are the hottest team on the board (team 132 wRC+, 17.5 HR/FB last seven days). There’s probably some value in his price tag. Alternately, he does have some platoon split issues (LHBs .351 wOBA, .343 xwOBA since 2017). Top of the order bats in Joc Pederson (125 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Max Muncy (150 wRC+, .313 ISO) have been two of the top hitters in the lineup against RHP, along with Cody Bellinger (134 wRC+, .287 ISO).
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger Don't Overthink It
The salary is high, but on this slate, it should be this high. There is just nothing past Cole to make any case to fade him, especially on DK/FDRFT, where even after you lock him in, because of how cheap all the other pitchers are, salary is still not overly strapped. His strikeout rate has ‘fallen’ to just 32.5% over the past month, but that has come with some tougher matchups. Against a high strikeout Texas team, he should be able to approach his 38.2% K rate on the season, which is the 2nd best mark of all starters in the league. When there are no viable pivots, don’t overthink it, just play the lone ace.
An Affordable GPP Stack
If you want to lock in Gerrit Cole at pitcher and still take a few high-end plays tonight, you might be looking for a very affordable GPP stack. You can get that with the Orioles, as top of the order options like Trey Mancini and Danny Valencia come very cheap. Both should be in the lineup against a LHP tonight, and that LHP is a declining veteran in Jaime Garcia. Of course, you can also consider Manny Machado if you have the salary to spend up on a player from this stack, but the primary appeal for me here is the value.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Schoop, Danny Valencia, Manny Machado
Ready to Break Out Against Lefties?
The Houston offense has been surprisingly average against left-handed pitching this season, but we are still dealing with a fairly small sample size. This is still a team that is built to hammer the ball against lefties, and now their price tags are a little more affordable than usual. Cole Hamels has been much better this season, but he’s still allowing a plethora of hard contact to righties, and Houston certainly has the potential to go off. I like them as a pivot off the likely chalky Red Sox, with George Springer checking in as one of the best bats of the day. Yuli Gurriel is an affordable piece in the middle of the order, while you can also opt for a full stack with anyone that’s in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Yulieski Gurriel, Alex Bregman A Top Sneaky Stack on a Short Slate
Jason Hammel’s strikeout ability has been on a steady decline for a number of years, as he has dropped from a 24% strikeout rate in 2015 to 21% in 2016 to 18% in 2017 to 15% this year. There has been a corresponding dip in his swinging strike rate, and he is allowing hard contact at an alarming 44% clip this season. The A’s line up as a fine stack this evening, and I like all their power bats. Matt Olson is one of my favorite GPP options on the slate with his power potential, while Dustin Fowler is extremely cheap on FanDuel. There are plenty of ways to stack this team up on a short slate Thursday.
Other tagged players: Dustin Fowler, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis