DFS Alerts
Get Exposure Here
You always want Coors Field exposure where you can get it, and David Peralta is the best combination of skills and salary for this Arizona team tonight. He comes at a savings from Goldschmidt and Lamb and is ahead of them both in contact, hard hits, ISO and wOBA against righties this season. Anytime you can get a hitter with low strikeouts who hits the ball hard over 50% of the time at Coors Field, you need to get that in your lineup.
Can't Beat This Matchup
It doesn’t get much worse than Matt Harvey against left-handed batters. This season he is at 15.5% K, 39% hard hits, .404 wOBA and .321 ISO allowed. Pulling back to bigger sample size from 2017-2018, it’s 14.4% K, 38% hard hits, .412 wOBA, .289 ISO. Matt Carpenter has strong plate skills, hits the ball extremely hard and in the air, and gets a big ballpark boost as well. Since the start of 2017, Carp has a .222 ISO with 45% hard hits against right-handed pitching. He leads off for a good team and has on base, run scoring and power upside. He tops my list in all formats on all sites.
Double Up The Aces
On FanDuel, I would stick with Sale in cash, while filtering in these other aces in tournaments. On DK/FDRFT, my first lean in both cash and GPP is to double up the aces. With Verlander having the extreme salary, it comes down to Stephen Strasburg and Jacob deGrom. I love them both, and will have even exposure in tournaments, but despite the obvious power risk in the matchup against the Yankees, Jacob deGrom has just simply been too good to pass up. What the Yankees add in risk they give back in strikeouts, along with losing their DH in an NL park. deGrom has a 36.7% K rate with 16.1% swinging strikes over the past month and has gone seven innings in four straight starts, with no fewer than eight strikeouts in any of them, and a total of just 22 hits and three runs allowed in 28 innings.
Ace of Aces
There are four elite aces on the mound tonight, and plenty of high upside arms past them, but when it comes to separating the top, Chris Sale has the best matchup on this slate, facing a White Sox team with the highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties. Sale’s 34% K rate for the season already puts him at the top of the list, and the projected lineup for Chicago tonight has an insane 29.5% K rate against LHP this season. Lock Sale in those cash games, and make sure to get heavy exposure in tournaments.
Ready to Explode in a Great Matchup
I am by no means a believer in Dylan Covey. Even though he has been decent through his first few starts of 2018, a lot of that has been due to good luck, as he has yet to allow a home run. That will change soon. His walk rate remains sky high, and he still has a SIERA and xFIP over 5.00 for his brief major league career. The Red Sox have a potent offense that should cause lots of problems for Covey. Andrew Benintendi has been phenomenal this year and is one of the top plays on the slate, with Eduardo Nunez provides a nice source of value. A full stack is also very much in play against Covey.
Other tagged players: Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez
Coors Field is Back!
Coors Field is back in our lives tonight, and I like this spot for the visiting Diamondbacks. They move from the pitching paradise of AT&T Park to the hitters’ haven of Coors Field, and I expect some runs here against basically a league average arm in German Marquez. Arizona carries a team total of five and a half runs here, and I prefer their bats over the Rockies, who have a tougher task against Zack Greinke. If I am going for an Arizona stack, I will go all out and spend on the middle of the order here, though that will require you to save a little more with your arms.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta A Reasonably-Priced Stack with Potential
If you are looking for a stack that will also allow you to spend up on the mound this evening, give the Blue Jays a look. They are very affordable on all sites, and they are extremely affordable on FanDuel. Andrew Cashner has been allowing more hard contact this year, still has a below average strikeout rate, and now has a walk rate over 10%. Both LHBs and RHBs have a .382 wOBA against him this season, so go for the top and middle of the order and/or value here. Curtis Granderson is a great value on FanDuel, while Russell Martin carries more value on DraftKings where you need a catcher. If you need to get more value out of this group, you could replace Smoak with Morales at first base. I love the price/upside combo here.
Other tagged players: Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin A Fine Mid-Range Arm with Upside
We have seen the strikeouts bump higher with Tanaka, as he has racked up 15 strikeouts in his last two outings. However, he still tends to struggle mightily with the long ball, so that gives him a shaky floor every time he takes the mound. Despite the home run troubles, it’s difficult to envision him keeping a 21% HR/FB rate, even though that’s where he has been since the start of 2017. Is it just a long stretch of bad luck? In any case, I like tonight’s matchup against an over-rated Mets offense, and Tanaka still owns a solid 3.75 SIERA and 3.85 xFIP on the year. Give him a look as an affordably priced pitcher and SP #2 on the multi-pitcher sites.
The Top GPP Arm of the Night
I like both Chris Sale and Stephen Strasburg as top arms tonight, but if forced to choose between the two, I will give Sale the ever so slight edge. I hope that his mediocre outings his last two times out will keep his ownership down, because he draws a fantastic matchup against a high strikeout White Sox team that struggles offensively against left-handed pitching. Sale has been the victim of rough BABIP luck over his last two starts, as he still owns a 2.70 SIERA on the year to go along with a 34% strikeout rate and 15% swinging strike rate. A double figure strikeout performance could certainly be in the works here, and I love the GPP upside.
Start of Thursday's HOU-TEX game will be delayed due to inclement weather
The start of the matchup between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers on Thursday night will be delayed due to the threat of inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Rangers have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Gerrit Cole not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game should play through with no issues following this initial weather stoppage.
As reported by: Jeff Wilson via Twitter
Paul Blackburn had just a 2.5 K-BB% last season, has faced just 19 AAA batters this year
The Royals have a board low 3.82 implied run line, but Paul Blackburn is not a reasonable daily fantasy consideration. He had just a 2.5 K-BB% in 58.2 major league innings last year and has faced just 19 AAA batters this season, coming off a forearm injury. The Oakland bullpen will be active early and they’ve been occasionally HR prone (42.9 GB%, 12.6 HR/FB). Unfortunately, the Kansas City offense does not contain much power. Mike Moustakas (120 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Salvador Perez (97 wRC+, .206 ISO) are the only two bats in the projected lineup (it has not been confirmed yet) who are above a .160 ISO against RHP over the last year. Nobody else is above a 100 wRC+ either.
Three Oakland bats exceed a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and a 200 wRC+ overall in the last seven days
The Oakland A’s have a perfectly respectable 4.68 implied run line despite a power and run suppressing park in Oakland against Jason Hammel, who has pitched into the sixth inning in four straight starts and allowed a total of four runs over his last three. His .383 xwOBA is second worst on the board however, and he most recently faced this same Oakland team, a start in which he struck out just three over six innings. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA within five points of .330 against him, but it seems that a big park in Kansas City has benefited him, as his xwOBA pushes that mark above .350 for both sides. Each of the first five batters in the Oakland lineup has a 110 wRC+ or better against RHP over the last calendar year. Jed Lowrie (118 wRC+, .174 ISO) is the only one of the five below a .200 ISO. Matt Olson (152 wRC+, .340 ISO) is the clear top bat, followed closely by Khris Davis (134 wRC+, .279 ISO), who costs a bit more. Both, along with Dustin Fowler (115 wRC+, .203 ISO) have a wRC+ above 200 and hard hit rate exceeding 50% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Dustin Fowler, Jason Hammel, Jed Lowrie One important spot worth watching in Thursday's forecast
One potential weather issue has popped up for the evening forecast and Kevin is on top of it. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers have access to late updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Cole Hamels (2nd most expensive arm) has allowed multiple HRs in three straight starts and has a board high 10% Barrels/BBE
Cole Hamels is the second most expensive pitcher, above $8K on either site, yet he faces a dangerous opponent with the third highest implied run line (5.02) in a dangerous home park. Hamels has just a 23.7 K% this season, but that’s still good enough for second best on the board tonight, while his .358 xwOBA is third highest and he’s the only pitcher to reach double digits (10%) in Barrels/BBE. He’s also allowed multiple HRs in three straight starts. He gets a slight bump with the best hitter against LHP (Carlos Correa) out of the lineup tonight and may be worthy of a GPP dart, but players are going to want some Houston exposure as well. George Springer (151 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has a lineup topping 247 wRC+ over the last seven days and three HRs (.431 xwOBA) in 28 PAs against Hamels. Alex Bregman (138 wRC+, .201 ISO) costs $4.2K on either site. Yulieski Gurriel (116 wRC+, .164 ISO) costs just $2.6K on FanDuel in the cleanup spot. Max Stassi leads the lineup with a 172 wRC+, .397 xwOBA and .250 ISO against LHP in limited looks (56 PAS) over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel, Max Stassi, Cole Hamels Gerrit Cole leads the slate in K%, xwOBA and cost by a large margin, but has been a bit HR prone recently
A 3.98 Vegas run line seems a bit high for the Rangers, even at home, considering that Gerrit Cole costs nearly $6K more than any other pitcher on DraftKings. His 38.2 K% his 14.5 points higher than any other pitcher on the board. His .267 xwOBA is best by 30 points. He has allowed three runs in three of his last four starts (six HRs over that span), but no more than that in any start this season. He’s failed to strikeout at least seven in just one start this year and has gone beyond six innings in nine of 12. It’ll be interesting to see what players decide to do in terms of paying up for him tonight. The Rangers have a 25.9 K% against RHP that’s a split high by 1.4 points tonight. Something that very few players would be expected to do is oppose him. The Rangers do have seven batters in the lineup above a .185 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Joey Gallo (123 wRC+, .331 ISO) is the only one above .210 though. He and Shin-Soo Choo (114 wRC+, .203 ISO) both have a hard hit rate above 70% over the last week. Should players decide to go out on that limb, they’d likely stand alone, but would probably also want at least some Cole exposure in additional lineups.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Joey Gallo