DFS Alerts
Playing at Home in a Hitter's Park
Steven Matz has really struggled in his last two outings and now has to go on the road and face the Brewers in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. On the season, he has given up a .363 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Lorenzo Cain is one of the many Brewers’ righties on my radar tonight for both cash games and tournaments.
Lock of the Day at Third Base
Austin Bibens-Dirx is a journeyman in the minors that has very mediocre numbers. The Royals get to face him in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre and they come into the game with one of the highest implied totals of the slate. Mike Moustakas currently owns a .446 xwOBA and a .286 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Only Available on DraftKings
Morton is having a career year, posting a 2.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a ground ball rate of 56%. He has all of the tools needed to be an elite pitcher and by all accounts, he is just that. The issue here is a matchup against the Indians, whose projected lineup has a .336 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. I’m willing to overlook it based on how weak the pitching options are tonight.
Left-handed batters have a .400 xwOBA vs Felix Hernandez since last season
Lineups for the Seattle/Oakland game only available on DraftKings or alternate slates on FanDuel are not confirmed as of yet. Felix Hernandez has an ERA and FIP well above five with just a 39.3 GB% and 9.8 K-BB%. He has a board worst .394 xwOBA on the road since last season. While RHBs hit him well (.333 wOBA, .339 xwOBA), LHBs have destroyed him since last season (.355 wOBA, .404 xwOBA). Matt Olson (159 wRC+, .396 xwOBA, .341 ISO vs RHP since last season), Jed Lowrie (131 wRC+, .372 xwOBA, .189 ISO) and Matt Joyce (135 wRC+, .251 ISO) are all great plays from the projected lineup. The 27 year-old Josh Lucas makes his first career start for the A’s. He struck out seven of 14 batters in a recent relief appearance, but none of 10 in the his first this season. He’s had double digit walk rates at several attempts at AAA and hasn’t started a game since 2013 in A ball.
Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Felix Hernandez, Joshua Lucas
The FanDuel Ace
With the Houston game off the Main Slate on FanDuel tonight, Rick Porcello is the top pitcher, with a favorable matchup against a Rays team ranking 25th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Porcello has shown an increase in strikeouts to 24.4% this season, but it’s still more about his elite control and soft contact to righties helping. His only moderate flaw is lefty power, and the Rays just don’t have anything to hurt him with there.
Dylan Bundy's 26.8 K% tops the early board, but he's allowed 12 HRs over his last five starts
Dylan Bundy has the top strikeout rate on the afternoon slate (26.8% with a 14.9 SwStr%) and is at least striking out batters again (15 of his last 51 BF) with a velocity spike back up towards early April rates, even if he has allowed multiple HRs in four of his last five starts now (12 total over that span). He’s the highest priced pitcher on the board, but still below $8.5K on either site, despite his 13.2% Barrels/BBE being highest for the entire day. The White Sox have just recently moved into the bottom spot on the board (4.11 implied runs) in the last few minutes and the lineup reflects that beyond the first few batters. The first four may actually make an interesting stack due to Bundy’s troubles against LHBs (.349 wOBA, .359 xwOBA, 38.7 Hard% since last season) and Jose Abreu (145 wRC+, .387 xwOBA, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) being just all-around good. Yoan Moncada (138 wRC+, .241 ISO), Yolmer Sanchez (114 wRC+, .174 ISO) and Daniel Palka (126 wRC+, .306 ISO) all have upside for $4K or less. The rest of the lineup is incredibly weak and should boost Bundy’s line considerably. The White Sox start Lucas Giolito, who has struck out more than four just once this season, while walking at least that many in four of nine starts. He has a -3.2 K-BB%, but a traditional platoon split that has seen him perform at league average (.310 wOBA, 2.7 K-BB%, 27.3 Hard%) against right-handed batters, almost entirely due to contact management. This may present some problems for Orioles, at least as far as rostering a predominantly right-handed lineup. Chris Davis (72 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Pedro Alvarez (96 wRC+, .211 ISO), Chance Sisco (117 wRC+, .187 ISO, .305 xwOBA) and Jace Peterson (72 wRC+, .100 ISO) are your choices from that side, all batting lower in the order.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka, Lucas Giolito, Pedro Alvarez, Chance Sisco, Chris Davis, Jace Peterson Joey Votto sits against pitcher with extreme platoon splits (LHBs .400 xwOBA vs Nova since last year)
The big news out of Cincinnati this afternoon is Joey Votto’s absence against a pitcher with a severe platoon issue. Left-handed batters have a .364 wOBA, .400 xwOBA, 34.6 Hard% and 43.7 GB% against Ivan Nova since last season. Despite this, Nova (17.8 K%, .387 xwOBA) would still be a difficult roster in an extremely power friendly park. His 91.4 mph aEV and 46.6% 95+ mph EV are easily the highest, not only on the afternoon slate, but for the entire day. Scooter Gennett (150 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Scott Schebler (99 wRC+, .259 ISO) are power plays. Jesse Winker (135 wRC+, .163 ISO) has less of that, but costs less than $3K on either site. The Pirates will face Luis Castillo with the lowest implied run line on the board (4.05). His 15.2 SwStr% is easily the highest for the entire day as well, but it’s led only to a 22.1 K%,(second best on the afternoon board). Velocity remains down from last season. He recently followed up a string of three straight starts with at least seven strikeouts for the first time this year with more walks (five) than strikeouts (four) last time out. He’s allowed 10 HRs in 10 starts (four in four home starts). The upside certainly still plays on a four (or three) game slate without a stud on the board. In fact, his $7.8K price tag is $300 off the top of the board on DraftKings. However, there’s certainly merit in attacking him with Pittsburgh bats as well. While batters from either side have an xwOBA .300 or below in his career, LHBs have actual .384 wOBA with seven HRs in 109 PAs this year. Corey Dickerson (104 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is reasonably priced. Colin Moran (129 wRC+, .181 ISO) is a bit cheaper and moves up to sixth in the lineup. Austin Meadows bats seventh with a .464 xwOBA against RHP in his small sample. No other Pittsburgh bat in the confirmed lineup exceeds a .150 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Scott Schebler, Jesse Winker, Ivan Nova, Luis Castillo, Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran, Austin Meadows Nick Tropeano and Marco Estrada are two extreme fly ball pitchers with reverse splits
Half of the eight teams on the afternoon slate (and on the six team FanDuel one) have an implied run line between 4.6 and 4.9, which comprises the top half of the board. The Angels (4.68) and Blue Jays (4.82) are two of them. Both starts, Nick Tropeano and Marco Estrada, are middle of the board among the seven pitchers who have made starts this year in strikeout rate, a bit below average and both have ERA estimators right around five, though the visiting pitcher has a DRA (4.58) much lower than the home one (7.20). Both xwOBAs lie between .355 and .380. Tropeano has the slightly higher aEV (89.6 mph), though Estrada has a much higher Barrels/BBE (12.5%) with a ground ball rate (25.6%) that’s 10 full points lower than Tropeano (35.9%). Both pitchers have exhibited a reverse platoon split since last year with Estrada being good against LHBs (.306 wOBA, .293 xwOBA, 25.2 Hard%) and Tropeano allowing batters from either side an xwOBA in excess of .340 with a 40+ Hard%. There are few proficient left-handed batters in either of these lineups. Mike Trout (178 wRC+, .432 xwOBA, .314 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (132 wRC+, .379 xwOBA, .250 ISO) are obvious top players, both potentially bargains even at higher cost in these matchups and certainly affordable without a high priced pitcher on the board this afternoon. Beyond that, the Toronto lineup appears to offer more value without another batter reaching $4K on either site. Teoscar Hernandez (140 wRC+, .400 xwOBA, .318 ISO) is a top overall play and a great value play as well. Justin Upton (120 wRC+, .232 ISO) is the only other right-handed batter in either lineup topping a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Shohei Ohtani (188 wRC+, .434 xwOBA, .343 ISO) and Yangervis Solarte (120 wRC+, .217 ISO) get there from the left side. Dwight Smith (151 wRC+, .326 xwOBA, .091 ISO in very limited work) is a cheap leadoff bat if that’s something that might be needed.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Nick Tropeano, Marco Estrada, Josh Donaldson, Yangervis Solarte, Teoscar Hernandez, Dwight Smith Jr. A Fine One-Off GPP Play
I don’t love a full stack of Rangers tonight, as their lefty-heavy lineup doesn’t bode well for a full stack against Duffy. However, any right-handed power is an intriguing selection given Duffy’s massive struggles in 2018. I’ll take Jurickson Profar as my favorite one-off play, as he has shown a nice all around game of late and has six RBI over the last two games. On a short slate, he’s one of the top shortstop options out there.
Fire Up The Right-Handed Power
The Brewers righties are a decent GPP stack tonight against the maddeningly inconsistent Steven Matz, so there are some strong options here. Jesus Aguilar has been a sneaky good option when he has been in the lineup this season, and he has posted a .414 wOBA, .231 ISO, and 164 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Playing time might be a little harder to come by with Ryan Braun being activated from the disabled list tonight, but I would expect Aguilar to be in the middle of the lineup against a LHP. Speaking of Braun, he’s also a great value at $2,900 on FanDuel tonight in his return, so he is an elite option over there, but he is in play on every site. Lorenzo Cain also makes sense if you are stacking up the RHBs at the top of the order.
Other tagged players: Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun Tonight's Top Spot for Offense
On a points per dollar basis, the Royals are my favorite offense to target tonight. Austin Bibens-Dirkx has been posting average numbers at Triple-A this year, and his career numbers at the major league level are uninspiring with a 12.7% strikeout rate and a 5.20 SIERA. He allows a lot of hard contact, and the Royals power hitters are in a fine spot here. The park shift to Texas is also a nice boost. Both Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez are elite plays tonight. You can even throw in Alex Gordon as part of a GPP stack, as he has been taking better at-bats of late, and he comes at a value price tag for DFS purposes.
Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon The Risk/Reward GPP Pitching Option
The Houston/Cleveland game is not available on FanDuel tonight, but at least we only need one pitcher over there. On DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where we need two hurlers, the two pitchers in this game are definitely options we need to consider. Charlie Morton is obviously the safe choice with his impressive 2018 resume, but sometimes you have to be bold in tournaments on these shorter slates. For that reason, I’ll pivot to Clevinger at a more reasonable price point. We know there’s strikeout upside in his arm, and I would expect his strikeout rate to trend back upward as the season goes along. The walks are often an issue, and that makes his floor very low for cash games. He has gotten better with his command in 2018, so there is a path to success here… It’s just very risky against Houston. Give him a GPP-only look tonight on a four game slate.
The Top Pitcher On a Short Slate
Porcello matches up very well with the Rays. Tampa Bay has one of the least imposing lineups in all of baseball, with little power to speak of even in the middle of the order. Porcello throws a ton of strikes and doesn’t walk anyone, making his defense work throughout the game. That’s a fine recipe against a weak lineup, and Porcello’s strikeouts and swinging strikes have ticked upward in 2018. On a short Thursday slate, his strike-throwing ways give him the best combination of floor and ceiling out there.
Leading Off For A Strong Offense
The Brewers righties are one of the few good targets on this slate tonight. Steven Matz has shown no ability to control batted balls against righties, and what strikeout ability he has is offset by the strong contact skills of Lorenzo Cain. Cain has power and speed, hits the ball hard and leads off for a good offense. In an added bonus tonight, Matz struggles allowing stolen bases, giving Cain another way to tack on points.
The Game To Load Up On
The Royals-Rangers game is the top spot for hitting tonight, and with Danny Duffy struggling mightily, getting some right-handed Rangers bats is a priority. There’s nothing spectacular about any of these Rangers righties, but Duffy is showing very little strikeout ability along with shaky control and giving up tons of hard hits. Jurickson Profar is my first look, but on FanDuel, it’s a significant savings down to Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who should be back in the middle of the lineup. There is nothing great about his skills, and typically wouldn’t be someone to qualify as a Core Play, but he has shown high contact ability and this small slate requires some less than elite batters to make the cut.