DFS Alerts
A Possible Punt Option on the Mound
There are a ton of aces on the mound tonight, so most of the action will gravitate toward the higher dollar pitching options. However, salary cap constraints are going to be an issue, especially since we have a game at Coors Field. I wouldn’t drop below the Scherzer/Paxton/Syndergaard/Kluber tier on FanDuel where you only get one pitcher, but Minor is a viable punt on the multi-pitcher sites. He has combined average strikeouts with a low walk rate so far this season, and his 3.85 SIERA is very respectable. He has been victimized by a high BABIP, and that could start to normalize in a matchup against an average Royals lineup. Minor is dirt cheap on both DK & FDRAFT tonight, making him a fine SP #2 option for your GPP rosters.
A Massive Floor and a Massive Ceiling
Scherzer is the top option almost by default every time he takes the mound, as his numbers this year have been off the charts with a 41% strikeout rate, 17.2% swinging strike rate, and a SIERA sitting at just over 2.00. As a result of his insane numbers, it generally doesn’t matter who he is facing, as we can be comfortable taking him against any opponent. Well, what happens when that opponent is the feeble Marlins? You jam Scherzer in wherever you can. The Marlins carry an implied team total of just two and a half runs here, and Scherzer has the best combination of floor and ceiling on the board today.
Weak Kansas City lineup has the top implied run line (5.17) in the Texas heat against Austin Bibens-Dirkx
The Kansas City Royals are the only team Vegas has above five runs tonight (5.17) and only one batter in the lineup is above a 100 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. However, they are facing Austin Bibens-Dirkx in near 90 degree heat in Texas. The 33 year old had a 12.7 K% in 69.1 innings in his first taste of major league action last year. He allowed 14 home runs (15.1 HR/FB) split nearly evenly with batters from either side within six points of a .340 wOBA and seven points of a .370 xwOBA. The first seven in the order are all certainly at least usable. Mike Moustakas (128 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Salvador Perez (87 wRC+, .203 ISO), Jon Jay (94 wRC+, .084 ISO) and Whit Merrifield (97 wRC+, .130 ISO) are the top bats as the first four in the order.
Brandon Nimmo has a 153 wRC+ and .409 xwOBA vs RHP over last calendar year
Zach Davies has a total of seven strikeouts over his last three starts and makes his return from a shoulder injury after facing just 17 single A ball batters in a rehab start on Saturday. He did strike out nine of them, but surely has workload concerns in this game. While it’s not great news for him, it may not be great news for the Mets either (Josh Hader looms). None the less, with the Mets implied for just 3.81 runs, he’s the only pitcher below $8K against a team with an implied run below four and has to be considered a secondary favorite on DraftKings for those who like to pay up for bats. While LHBs have a .329 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against Davies since last year, all five of his HRs have been surrendered to RHBs this season. Same-handed batters have a wOBA 52 points higher against him in 2018 alone (.345 to .293). Regardless, Brandon Nimmo (153 wRC+, .409 xwOBA, .214 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top offensive play in this offense. At the very minimum, this man gets on base. Few may realize that Wilmer Flores (batting third) has been better against RHP than LHP over the last year. His .239 ISO (123 wRC+) against them, is second best in this lineup over that span. This Mets’ lineup does have some power threats. Only Adrian Gonzalez (.172) and Amed Rosario (.102) have ISOs below .197 (Asdrubal Cabrera) over the last calendar year.
Jesus Aguilar has a 134 wRC+, .238 ISO and 53.4 Hard% against LHP over the last calendar year
The Milwaukee Brewers have a 4.68 implied run line that’s the highest and only one above 4.5 outside of Texas tonight. Steven Matz has gone four innings or less in half of his eight starts with a 24.3 HR/FB overall. Right-handed batters have eight of his nine home runs allowed and a .366 wOBA, .365 xwOBA since last season against him. He’ll face seven of those against Milwaukee with Travis Shaw out of the lineup, but it’s important to note that the Mets’ pen has just one LHP (Jerry Blevins). Matz has a 22.9 K% this season, but with just a 7.7 SwStr%. Over the last 30 days, he has a more acceptable 15.9 K% with the same swinging strike rate. Lorenzo Cain (182 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Jesus Aguilar (134 wRC+, .238 ISO, 53.4 Hard%) and Ryan Braun (108 wRC+, .255 ISO) are all superior plays tonight, but also the only RHBs above a 90 wRC+ or .130 ISO in the lineup against southpaws over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Steven Matz, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun Right-handed batters have 13 HRs and a .400+ wOBA against Danny Duffy this season
Danny Duffy has allowed 14 HRs and at least one in six straight starts, 13 of them to right-handed batters. Six of those 14 have come in four home starts, an extreme power suppressing park. Tonight, he pitches in the Texas heat, where a poor Texas lineup (86 wRC+ at home, 90 wRC+ vs LHP) has a 4.83 implied run line that’s second best on the board. Players will be looking here for much of their daily fantasy offensive needs tonight. While Duffy continues to stifle same-handed batters (sub-.275 wOBA, xwOBA since last year and in 2018 alone), right-handers have a matching .357 wOBA/xwOBA since last season and are above a .400 wOBA in 2018 alone. Robinson Chirinos (141 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the top power option against southpaws, batting seventh. Delino DeShields (122 wRC+, .195 ISO), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (94 wRC+, .161 ISO), Ryan Rua (95 wRC+, .151 ISO), and Hanser Alberto (4 career wRC+ overall in 165 career MLB PAs) are the other right-handed options tonight. The good news is that none top $3.4K on DK or $3K on FanDuel tonight.
Crunch Time is one hour earlier (5:30 ET) tonight
There are no weather concerns on the small slate tonight, but Kevin does have some interesting information concerning the game with the highest total in his forecast tonight, available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers need to know that due to the early start on DraftKings tonight, Crunch Time with be one hour earlier, at 5:30 ET.
Charlie Morton has struck out at least eight in seven of nine, including eight Indians last time out
Cleveland (only available on the main DK slate) will face the top pitcher on the board (Charlie Morton), but has just the third lowest implied run line (3.8) in a positive run environment. Morton (board topping 32.1 K% & 13.3 SwStr%) has struck out at least eight in five of his last seven starts (though a total of five in the other two), including eight against this same team in seven one run innings last time out. His .250 xwOBA and 3.9% Barrels/BBE are both best on the board with a very strong 86.6 mph aEV that’s just a bit behind Blake Snell and the opposing pitcher in this game. The Tribe does have a 23.9 K% against RHP this season, which keeps him in line for the highest strikeout rate projection tonight. While RHBs have a .332 wOBA against Morton since last season, that comes with a 56.5 GB% and 30 point drop by xwOBA. LHBs have a .237 wOBA with a 35.6 K%. Anything goes on a four game slate and Jose Ramirez (162 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has to be considered if cost is not an issue even in this matchup on such a small slate. Michaell Brantley (133 wRC+, .194 ISO), Francisco Lindor (118 wRC+, .242 ISO) and Edwin Encarnacion (135 wRC+, .261 ISO) are extremely strong bats against righties as well, but it’s really tough to find value in high cost Cleveland bats in this spot. Perhaps that’ll suppress ownership enough to win supporters a GPP should Morton falter in this spot.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor Strikeouts are up for Mike Clevinger last 30 days (24.3%), but so are walks (four twice in last three starts)
The DraftKings main slate starts an hour earlier than FanDuel tonight, in order to include the Astros @ Indians. Houston has a 4.2 implied run line right in the middle of that board against Mike Clevinger, who has pitched into the eight inning in four of nine starts this year and has completed six in seven of his last eight. While he walked a total of 10 through his first six starts, he’s walked four twice in his last three, but both his strikeout (24.3% vs 21.3%) and swinging strike (13% vs 11.7%) are up a bit over his season averages over the last 30 days. He’s dominated RHBs to the tune of a .266 wOBA since last season, which depresses the value of the best Houston bats at high cost tonight. LHBs have a .325 wOBA against him over the same span, while xwOBA raises each side 20 to 30 points. The top five in the Houston order still have some appeal on a four game slate against a pitcher who has struggled with control both recently and in his career. Marwin Gonzalez (131 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the only LHB of that bunch and costs less than $3.5K on either site. Brian McCann (99 wRC+, .212 ISO) costs $200 more, two spots further down in the order.
Other tagged players: Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann Blake Snell (26.2 K%) has pitched into the seventh inning in six of last seven starts
The Boston Red Sox have the second lowest implied run line on the board tonight (3.65), which makes some more sense when you realize they’re facing a quality lefty (81 wRC+, 17.6 K-BB% vs LHP this year). Blake Snell has a 26.2 K% and 13.1 SwStr% that are both second best on the board tonight. He’s walked just nine over his last seven starts (three of them last time out), getting at least one out in the seventh inning in all but one of those efforts. In 13 innings against Boston this season, he’s allowed eight hits, two runs, no homers, three walks and 11 Ks (nine in his most recent start against them). His 85.8 mph aEV and 23.5% 95+ mph EV are both lowest for the entire day, minimizing the damage from a 37% ground ball rate. Mookie Betts (182 wRC+, .423 xwOBA, .303 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (200 wRC+, .457 xwOBA, .385 ISO, 54.4 Hard%) are vicious bats as always against southpaws, but if ownership rates (available to premium subscribers via it’s own page and LineupHQ) suggests Snell might be underowned, he could be a difference maker tonight.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez Daily Bullpen Alert: Worst pen in baseball in the Texas heat
Eight teams in play tonight with three pitchers (Mike Clevinger, Rick Porcello and Charlie Morton) averaging over six innings per start. Blake Snell and Zach Davies are just under that, comprising the top five innings eaters on for the entire day on the night slate. Josh Hader (56.9 K%) has thrown just 30 pitches since Saturday as well, so Milwaukee may be a bullpen players don’t want to mess with tonight, especially considering the Mets’ lack of right-handed bats at the moment (LHBs .133 wOBA vs Hader). The Mets and Royals are the leftovers with Matz and Duffy averaging the least innings per start for the entire day (all eight games). The Kansas City bullpen is the worst in baseball by a wide margin (4.90 FIP, 8.5 K-BB%) and they’re in the Texas heat tonight. One caveat being that they have a 17.6 K-BB% and 4.24 FIP over the last 14 days. The Mets’ pen has a 4.10 FIP (9th worst), but 15 K-BB% (9th best). Familia threw 20+ pitches in a blown save last night, but Paul Sewald (20.8 K-BB%), Seth Lugo (18.1 K-BB%) and Robert Gsellman (13.6 K-BB%, 58.8 GB%) threw a combined 3.2 innings in the Miami series and should all be available tonight.
LHBs have a ground ball rate (30.7%) half of what RHBs do (61%) against Rick Porcello
The Tampa Bay Rays have the lowest implied run line on the board this evening (3.35), more than a quarter run below the next lowest team, their opponents. Rick Porcello will be facing the Tampa Bay Rays four the fourth time this season (20.1 IP – 19 H – 7 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 17 K – 80 BF). David Price was successful under similar circumstances last night. All of Porcello’s five HRs allowed this season have come in his last five starts, in which he’s been throwing a few more curveballs. His ground ball rate has been below his 48.3% season rate in four of those starts, each of which he’s allowed a HR in. Denard Span homered on a meatball changeup in his most recent start against them. Oddly, while Tampa Bay struggles against sliders the most (-19.4 wSL), he’s been below his season average (25.6%) with that pitch in all three starts against them. The 24.4 K% is third best on the board tonight, while his last start (19.6 SwStr%) puts Porcello at a league average 10.1 SwStr% on the season now. His .280 xwOBA is second best on the board. This is an interesting spot because players should consider at least some exposure to Porcello at the second highest price tag on the board, but can also consider fading him for $11.2K on DraftKings. He has gotten an out in the sixth inning in every single start this year though. Only Mike Clevinger has pitched more innings per start on this board. Despite an eight point higher K-BB%, all five of his HRs have been surrendered to LHBs this season with a ground ball rate that’s cut in half (30.7% vs 61% vs RHBs). Span (111 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and perhaps Brad Miller (91 wRC+, .169 ISO) have to be considered tonight, though the only other LHB in the lineup, Mallex Smith, has absolutely no power (103 wRC+, .101 ISO).
Other tagged players: Denard Span, Brad Miller, Mallex Smith Park Upgrade Against Questionable Pitching Staff
Austin Bibens-Dirkx had trouble with both walks and the home run ball against left-handed hitters last season, allowing six home runs and twelve walks in only 134 left-handed batters faced last season, making and Royals hitting from the left side of the plate a particular value tonight. Jon Jay should get first crack at Bibens-Dirkx hitting leadoff, and should be in prime run-scoring position as he sets the table for the Royals offense. Alex Gordon should be hitting farther down the lineup and carries a .830 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and all Royals hitters should benefit for a ballpark upgrade tonight in Texas.
These Right-Handers in Prime Position to Produce
Danny Duffy not only has the worst ERA among qualified pitchers this season, but he has had particular trouble with right-handed hitters, allowing 13 home runs and a .612 slugging percentage to righties over 202 total batters faced on the year. If you are looking for value bats, any of the cheaper Texas right-handed hitters should be under consideration. Delino DeShields should get maximum plate appearances against Duffy hitting leadoff, and Jurickson Profar and Isiah Kiner-Falefa should be in prime run producing position hitting in the middle of the lineup, all for relative value across all sites.
Hoping for a Return to Form With Our Value Pitcher Tonight
On a day that starts off with our top pitcher being an arm that gave up seven earned runs and four home runs without recording an out a couple of weeks ago, it makes sense that we have to take a look at a value option who has the worst ERA in the major leagues among qualified pitchers so far this season. Danny Duffy comes in with an abysmal 6.88 ERA, although to be fair his 4.95 SIERA is only 11th-worst among qualified pitchers. Why would you consider Duffy tonight? He’s actually a slight favorite in his matchup against the Rangers, and Texas ranks 2nd in K% and 17th in OPS against left-handed pitching on the season. Duffy is priced at $6,000 on FanDuel, $4,300 on DraftKings, and $8,600 on FantasyDraft, so if you are insisting on a value pitcher tonight, that’s not a bad price for an arm that put up a 3.88 ERA across 24 starts last season.