DFS Alerts

The Game To Load Up On

The Royals-Rangers game is the top spot for hitting tonight, and with Danny Duffy struggling mightily, getting some right-handed Rangers bats is a priority. There’s nothing spectacular about any of these Rangers righties, but Duffy is showing very little strikeout ability along with shaky control and giving up tons of hard hits. Of all the affordable Rangers, Jurickson Profar stands out with a miniscule 10.6% K rate against lefties since last season. He has been hitting in the middle of the lineup and should find himself with all kinds of run-producing opportunites.

Highest Skilled Pitcher Of The Night

On DK/FDRFT, we have an earlier than usual start, which allows us to use Charlie Morton on the mound. He does not have any easy matchup, but he shut this Cleveland team down last week in Houston, and even if he can’t have a full repeat of that performance, this is still clearly the most talented pitcher on this slate. His 32.1% K rate this season dwarfs the rest of the field, as does his 55.6% ground ball rate. Both his 1.94 ERA and 2.86 SIERA are nearly a full run lower than any other pitcher on the slate.

Top Hitter On A Tough Slate

The Rangers are turning to Austin Bibens-Dirkx who managed just a 12.7% strikeout rate in 70 innings in his rookie 2017 season. He is not some top prospect, he is a 33-year old league journeyman with no skill outside of throwing strikes. Moustakas has continued his 2017 power breakout with a home run every 13.6 AB against righties so far this season, all while lowering his strikeout rate to just 13.3%.

Matt Davidson (stiff back) scratched Wednesday; Jose Rondon replaces

Davidson has been scratched from the Chicago White Sox original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Baltimore Orioles due to back stiffness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jose Rondon, who will handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which does bump Leury Garcia up batting position to sixth. However, the remainder of the White Sox lineup stays intact as they face off against right-hander Alex Cobb at home this evening.

Jon Lester has a 2.12 ERA, but estimators well above four over the last month

The Cleveland Indians have just a 3.66 implied run line at Wrigley against Jon Lester, who has a 2.12 ERA over the last month, though his ERA estimators remain well above four over that span and for the season. He’s sporting a .254 BABIP and 80.7 LOB% behind a great defense (14.7 UZR/150, .264 BABIP), but has allowed a hard hit rate above 35% in three of his last four starts, exceeding a 2.0 K/BB for the first time in a month last time out against the Reds. A low owned Cleveland stack paid dividends last night and could do so again with Franicsco Lindor (151 wRC+, .235 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Jose Ramirez (168 wRC+, .294 ISO) and Edwin Encarnacion (127 wRC+, .260 ISO). Lester has some well known issues with holding runners, which some of those guys can take advantage of as well.

No concerns, but a few words on conditions in Wednesday night's forecast

No serious weather concerns, but Kevin does some weather related statistical analysis in tonight’s forecast, available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can stay up to date until lock with Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.

Dylan Covey, Homer Bailey and Doug Fister are expected to be tonight’s punching bags with bullpen considerations not that important due to the damage expected to be done to starting pitchers in those spots. Each have middling bullpens with FIPs between 3.8 and 4.1 in any case with between 18 and 20 HRs allowed. Adam Plutko pitched into the eighth in his major league debut, but allowed six extra-base hits. A shorter outing would put it into the hands of a Cleveland bullpen that struggled out of the gate, but has just really struggled with the second worst FIP in the majors (4.79). Daniel Gossett is the only pitcher on the board with a start this season averaging fewer than five innings per start. The same is true for his short major league career. The A’s have a 4.27 FIP that’s fifth worst in baseball and have allowed 23 HRs this season. This is a great spot for players to attack.

Kenta Maeda got through eight innings on 96 pitches in his last start in Miami, could reach similar results vs Rockies tonight

Kenta Maeda has the second highest strikeout rate (28.6%) and second lowest xwOBA (.285) on the board. His matchup with the Rockies (63 wRC+, 24 K% vs RHP) could be considered the top matchup on the board (though the Marlins compete with that statement). The biggest issue with paying a price above $8.5K on either site for him is that he’s only thrown 100 pitches twice. Although, 96 pitches got him through eight innings in Miami last time out and could do something similar here. Maeda is a reasonable pivot from deGrom for salary considerations, but lacks the upside.

Affordable Top Of Lineup Bat

I’ve got to get a cheaper bat into the Core, and Jesse Winker leading off for Cincinnati is an easy way to do it. Chad Kuhl is going to have trouble with all the Reds lefties. Since coming up to the majors last season, Winker has a .398 OBP against right-handed pitching. He should be able to work his way on base with high run scoring upside in one of the best hitting games of the night.

The Baltimore Orioles have the second highest run total (4.98) on the board in a run neutral, but power friendly environment in Chicago (AL) against Dylan Covey, who probably shouldn’t be starting major league games. He’s thrown 76 major league innings with a 2.1 K-BB% and 37.4% hard hit rate. Batters from either side of the plate have a .370 or better wOBA and exceed a .390 xwOBA. Right-handed batters have a 40.4 Hard% and 45.5 GB%. This plays into Baltimore favors with four straight righties, who hit same-handed pitchers well, to start the order. Trey Mancini (110 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Adam Jones (102 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Jonathan Schoop (102 wRC+, .183 ISO) all cost $4K or less on either site. Manny Machado (124 wRC+, .227 ISO) is the heavy hitter.

Yankees have the top implied run line on the board (5.48) for a third straight night in Texas

The New York Yankees have the top implied run line on the board (5.48) for the third straight night in Texas and although they’ve dropped about a quarter of a run over the course of the afternoon, they are still the only team above five implied runs tonight. They’ll be facing Doug Fister, who has traditionally struggled with left-handed batters (.338 wOBA, .345 xwOBA, 41 Hard% since last year), right-handers have a .330 xwOBA that’s 27 points higher than actual (.303) despite a 27.1 Hard% and 50 GB%. Austin Romine is the only batter in the lineup below a 105 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Aaron Judge (.342), Giancarlo Stanton (.314), Gleyber Torres (.290), .Didi Gregorius (.268) and Miguel Andujar (.225) all exceed a .200 ISO against RHP over the same time span. What this means is that virtually everyone except Romine is a strong play in this spot.

Jacob deGrom is expensive ($13.2K on DK), but leads the board by a mile in virtually every important statistic

Jacob deGrom is the top pitcher on the board, nobody else is even close and everybody knows it. He tops the board with a 34.3 K%, 15.5 SwStr%, 2.64 SIERA, 77.1 Z-Contact%, and .232 xwOBA. What’s more, nobody is even close in any of those metrics AND he gets to face the Marlins tonight (71 wRC+ on the road, 76 wRC+ vs RHP). He tied a career high with 13 strikeouts in his last start and apart from two starts sandwiching a short trip to the DL, he has been dealing with eight or more strikeouts in his last four starts surrounding those two. He’s expected to be extremely popular tonight (ownership projections are available to premium subscribers via it’s own page and LineupHQ) because no other pitcher can bring what he does to the table without considerable flaws or concerns tonight. Players on DraftKings will have to pay $13.2K and may be able to differentiate with secondary choice like Alex Cobb (who’s velocity is up) at a much cheaper cost.

Tyler Skaggs has the third best strikeout rate on the board (25.4%), but also a 90.2 mph aEV

Tyler Skaggs is a pitcher of interest tonight. He’s struck out at least seven in four straight starts (but with a high of eight) and has allowed more than two runs in just one start this season. He doesn’t often go very deep into games, but has thrown at least 93 pitches in each start. His 25.4 K% is actually third best on the board tonight, however, he’s somehow excelled with a 90.2 mph aEV, which also makes this a dangerous spot in Toronto against a hard hitting, predominantly right-handed lineup. The Blue Jays have just a 90 wRC+ against southpaws, but a 22.3 K%, 9.2 BB%, 13.5 Hard%, 17.5 Hard-Soft% suggest they’re a bit better. They also did not have Josh Donaldson (154 wRC+, .336 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) for much of April. Teoscar Hernandez (87 wRC+, but a .376 xwOBA and .233 ISO vs LHP) is another interesting bat in this lineup for less than $4K. Skaggs has upside, but is expensive and perhaps a bit more vulnerable than players would like in this spot.

Sneaky Home Run Upside in a Pitcher's Park

The Mets are a team that we love to pick on when they are facing a left-handed pitcher, but they’ve quietly put up some good numbers against righties. They draw an excellent matchup tonight against Dan Straily, who has an extreme fly-ball rate and who has really struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a .499 xwOBA and a ridiculous 63% hard contact rate this season. I love the idea of loading up on the cheap lefties in this Mets’ lineup, especially at low ownership.

Sneaky Offense in this Big Slate

The Mets are a team that we love to pick on when they are facing a left-handed pitcher, but they’ve quietly put up some good numbers against righties. They draw an excellent matchup tonight against Dan Straily, who has an extreme fly-ball rate and who has really struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a .499 xwOBA and a ridiculous 63% hard contact rate this season. I love the idea of loading up on the cheap lefties in this Mets’ lineup, especially at low ownership.