DFS Alerts

Pair of Offenses Projecting Multiple Top of the Board Bats

Despite a large 14 game slate, only three offenses exceed five runs (none five and a half) and four more are above four and a half team run totals. It’s not an elite pitching board, but it is a strong and fairly deep one. The lineup projections seem to like the most is the Houston Astros, who have the third best team run total (5.17) against the Athletics. Through eight starts, Adrian Martinez has struck out just 17.9% of batters, but with an 11.1 SwStr% and 6.9 BB%. Considering his 25.7 K% at AAA this year and 25.4% at AA last year, there may be some additional upside here. A .331 BABIP, 68.4 LOB% and 15.9 HR/FB are responsible for 5.59 ERA that exceeds estimators ranging from a 4.29 xFIP to a 5.27 xERA. None of that sounds very good, but an increase in strikeout rate would cure some of that. His most frequently thrown pitch (52.4%) and worst graded one (2.9 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .400) is a sinker and the Astros have hammered fastballs since the break (0.64 wFB/C). RHBs have a .396 wOBA and .359 xwOBA against him so far, while LHBs have a .304 wOBA and .343 xwOBA, which means Statcast sees much less of a split and that suits the Astros just fine. Yordan Alvarez (185 wRC+, .328 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top projected bat on the board with Alex Bregman slightly lower (160 wRC+, 235 ISO) with Jose Altuve (139 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Kyle Tucker (151 wRC+, .238 ISO) on the edge of the top 10.

The Toronto Blue Jays are the only other offense projecting multiple top 10 bats with the fourth highest team run total (4.99) on this large slate. Jordan Lyles got walloped for eight runs by the Red Sox last time out and despite 13.2 innings with just a single earned run allowed immediately preceding this, he’s struck out just five of his last 74 batters. His season strikeout rate is down to 18% with 10.3% Barrels/BBE. His 4.62 ERA is within half a run of all estimators, although 11 of his last 24 have somehow been Quality Starts. A very predominantly right-handed lineup, batters from that side have an agreeable .327 wOBA and xwOBA against Lyles this year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (140 wRC+, .217 ISO) and George Springer (129 wRC+, .197 ISO) project as top 10 bats tonight.

Mid-Range Pitchers Projecting as Top Values

While 25% of Friday’s 14 game slate exceeds $9K on both sites tonight and many of them do project as top of the board pitchers tonight, point per dollar projections on either site suggest that it might be okay to pay down for arms. There is no pitcher projecting as a top four value on either site costing more than $9K right now. Are any of them usable on a single pitcher site though?

Let’s start at the top. Your top projecting value on either site is within $400 of $8K on either. Josiah Gray has now allowed 36 home runs on 42 barrels (11.5%) and while there’s bound to be some regression from a 19.6 HR/FB (even if not this year), that’s still a ton of barrels. Making it even worse is that he’s struck out just eight of his last 69 batters with 12 walks. Considering the results he was getting with a high strikeout rate, this new turn is disastrous. With just a 14.7 K-BB% on the year now, even contact neutral estimators exceed four, while a 4.31 xERA suggests It may be more of a contact elevation problem than a hard contact one overall. The good news for him is that his slider still grades well (29.1%, -1.4 RV/100, 40.9 Whiff%, .257 wOBA, .219 xwOBA) and Miami is the worst offense in the league against that pitch since the break (-1.51 wSL/C), as well as owning a 92 wRC+ and 22.8 K% vs RHP overall. More good news for Gray here is a predominantly right-handed lineup and Gray has a very large split this year (LHBs .413 wOBA, .364 xwOBA – RHBs .306 wOBA, .285 xwOBA). Gray is high risk and the strikeout decline towards the end of a long season is concerning, but the matchup should give him some upside in this spot. He still may be difficult to trust on a single pitcher site right now.

Lucas Giolito has correlated a lot of his issues this season with an early season injury and has never fully gotten on track. The strikeout rate is still above average (25.3%), but still his lowest since 2018 and just when we think he’s gotten his barrel issues under control, he’s allowed seven of his last three starts (8.3% on the year). That’s still lower than his 8.6% walk rate and don’t even get started on the BABIP (.352). At least we can count on the latter regressing, which is why his 5.18 ERA is more than three-quarters of a run above estimators ranging from a 3.65 xFIP to a 4.37 xERA. What we love here again, is the matchup (Tigers 72 wRC+, 25.2 K%, 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a decent environment at a decent price. Giolito projects as a top five arm overall and a top three value on either site, who certainly can be considered on a single pitcher site, though he costs exactly $9K on FanDuel ($1.2K less on DraftKings).

Either the third or fourth best projecting value on either site for less than $8K, people were excited when Jack Flaherty returned from a long IL stint for the second time this year, but this time with velocity intact as he struck out six of 23 Nationals, allowing only a run over five innings. Excitement may have faded when he held that velocity against the Pirates, but walked four without striking out any of the 23 batters he faced. He did allow two home runs and barrels. This is really the third straight lost season for Flaherty, who has more walks than strikeouts through five starts and you have to start to wonder because the only decent offense he’s faced this year has been Milwaukee. He’s in another great spot here against the Reds (85 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP), but has to be considered very high risk now.

Just to illustrate the volatility, Jesus Luzardo followed up a seven outing, two run, two walk, nine strikeout performance against the Phillies with a 3.1 innings, five run, three walk, three strikeout one against the Mets. The Marlins are thankful there’s been less of the bad and more of the good this year, as Luzardo has rebounded to 27.7 K% (17.9 K-BB%) with a 3.81 ERA that’s above all estimators, ranging from a 3.34 FIP to a 3.74 DRA. He actually has seven Quality Starts over his last 11 outings. He gets a park downgrade against a below average (91 wRC+, 8.4 HR/FB), but contact prone offense (20.1 K%) against LHP, projecting as the sixth best value on either site within $300 of $9K and has the upside to carry a team on a single pitcher site.

Lastly, we have to talk about the two New York pitchers tonight. Just when we thought he was back, Frankie Montas struggled in his second straight start against the Rays with four runs, walks and strikeouts after having one hit them with seven strikeouts previously. Even more concerning was another velocity drop. His overall numbers are still strong (17.1 K-BB% with a 34.7% hard hit rate) and he’s even had a few strong starts with the Yankees recently, but always seems to get sidetracked. A 3.94 xERA is still his only estimator exceeding a 3.89 ERA. The question is probably more about health than talent at this point. If healthy, he’s underpriced (within $100 of $8.5K on either site), even in a difficult matchup (Brewers 109 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 15.3 HR/FB) in a potentially dangerous park (if the roof is open), but we really don’t know the answer to that question, which certainly increases the risk and range of outcomes.

Even against the Marlins, it was a surprise to see Taijuan Walker strike out 10 of 26 batters over seven shutout innings because, though not to the extent of last year, he had been struggling in the second half again. Even with that outing, he has a 5.44 ERA/5.32 FIP/4.77 xFIP combo over nine post-break starts. On the season, he has just a 19.1 K% with all non-FIP estimators more than half a run above his 3.48 ERA, as just 12 of his 31 barrels (7.7%) have left the yard. The Pirates (83 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs RHP) are a tremendous matchup in a great park, but Walker costs $1.1K more on FanDuel, where he’d have to hit his ceiling for a second straight start to pay off.

Top Pitcher Returns From IL in Great Spot

We conclude the regular work week with a large 14 game slate that includes no less than six $10K pitchers, but just one more exceeding $9K on both sites. Costing exactly $11K on both sites, Justin Verlander last pitched on August 28th and has not had a rehab start. He is not said to be on a specific pitch limit, but won’t throw 100 pitches. It’s probably safe to say it will be many fewer than that. While his 1.84 ERA is more than three-quarters of a run below estimators ranging from a 2.70 FIP to a 3.33 xFIP with a .231 BABIP and 81.1 LOB%, it’s a shame that a pitcher with a 22.0 K-BB% won’t be a full go in such a great matchup (A’s 83 wRC+, 24.0 K% vs RHP) in a pitcher friendly environment (assuming roof closure), as the Astros just need Verlander healthy more than anything else. He still projects as the top pitcher on the slate, but outside the top five projected values. One last interesting little trinket, Oakland has been the fourth best offense against fastballs since the break (0.63 wFB/C), but this projected lineup has a ton of strikeouts in it, even if they do manage to do some damage. For a detailed breakdown on every pitcher costing more than $9K on both sites tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

This Top Rated Stack Has Been Struggling

With a lack of quality pitching on tonight’s small slate, but all the best matchups at the top of the board, early projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) suggest that DraftKings players will favor value bats in Minnesota over the prowess of Houston bats atop the board. With slightly softer pricing on FanDuel, this situation flip-flops with the Astros projected to be most popular. It is the Houston Astros that smash the slate most often in currently simulations, a bit ahead of the Twins and Cardinals. No surprise that the Twins are the runaway top projected value stack on DraftKings, but by a lesser margin over the Marlins on FanDuel, the only site the Philadelphia/Marlins game is available on tonight.

The likely need to pay up for pitching and perhaps opt for more value than punch with bats, suggests the Astros may be the top rated stack tonight. There is very little difference between their current Smash and Own projections on either site with neither reaching 20%, despite the size of the slate. James Kaprielian has just a 5.3 K-BB% and 43.8 Z-O-Swing%. A 4.77 xERA aligns well with his 4.79 ERA. All other estimators are above five and he’s completed six innings just once since the break. Theoretically, the Astros should blast him. Oddly, none of his 22 starts this season have been against this divisional opponent.

The New York Mets were nearly completely shut down by the Chicago Cubs this week, but still have one of the top run lines on the board against a decent pitcher in J.T. Brubaker, who has had a tough run of it (12 runs, 18 innings) against three of the best offenses in the league (Braves, Blue Jays, Cardinals) over his last three starts (and gets another one here, though they are struggling) as they’ve popped him for four home runs, but only four barrels (7.0%). For the season, a .326 BABIP is responsible for 4.36 ERA that’s above all estimators except for a 4.40 xERA, suggesting he may deserve some of that punishment with a 40.7% hard hit rate (95+ mph EV). The Pirates have to be pretty content with the 14.5 K-BB% and remaining estimators nearly half a run lower though. He actually has eight Quality Starts in his last 18 outings. Brubaker has just two pitches graded better than average by Statcast, but the Mets have hit both fastballs (0.41 wFB/C) and curveballs (0.96 wCB/C) very well since the break. Even worse, Brubaker throws a slider 31.3% of the time that’s been his worst pitch (1.3 RV/100) and the Mets hammer that one too (0.42 wSL/C). The Mets currently project the second best DraftKings Leverage Rating. Perhaps daily fantasy players won’t want to go back to the well that’s come up dry for them in three straight games. Pete Alonso has homered in each of the last two and nobody in the projected New York lineup falls below a 96 wRC+ vs RHP this year.

The St Louis Cardinals are a top rated stack on FanDuel (second behind the Astros). Chase Anderson has struck out 11 of 40 batters (10.8 SwStr%) with 10 of 20 batted balls on the ground and an 87.1 mph EV, but has also walked nine. In his ninth season, he hasn’t really deviated from his career 12.2 K-BB%, but if the ground ball thing is real, that would certainly be a brand new wrinkle. His four-seam rate (28.2%) is the lowest of his career, but still his most thrown pitch and though the 13.8% sinker rate isn’t the highest of his career, it is a five year high. It’s a tough park, but the Cardinals have a board high 121 wRC+ at home this season. More than half the projected lineup exceeds a 120 wRC+ vs RHP this year.

This Top Offenses Projects for a Ton of Value

The Houston lineup may include the most top projected bats on a small slate, but if you’re paying up for pitching tonight, which you probably should, the Minnesota Twins have the fourth best implied run line tonight (4.78) and project for a ton of value. Daniel Lynch started the season well enough and still has a respectable 11.5 K-BB%, but has a 13.9 K% (4.4 K-BB%) over his last six starts, has allowed 14 barrels (11.4%) over his last seven starts and has allowed at least three earned runs in 10 of his last 15. All estimators are below his 5.14 ERA (.335 BABIP), but his xERA (5.07) not by much (90.7 mph EV, 46.2% 95+ mph EV). He no longer has a single above average pitch, according to Statcast, while batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Despite batting from the left-hand side, a min-priced Jake Cave (69 wRC+ vs LHP this year) projects as a top two value on either site with a min-priced Nick Gordon (70 wRC+) also projecting as the top FanDuel value (10th best on DraftKings for $2.9K). From the right-hand side, Kyle Garlick (138 wRC+, .168 ISO) and Gio Urshela (116 wRC+, .164 ISO) project as top values on both sites for less than $3K. A min-priced Gilberto Celestino (62 wRC+) also projects as a top DraftKings value.

A pair of right-handed Marlins also project as top 10 FanDuel values against Noah Syndergaard, whose strikeout rate has dropped to 13.2% over seven starts with the Phillies, which makes the 9.8 K-BB% actually look impressive by that standard. The attempt to rediscover the hard slider in Philly seems unsuccessful with a 4.61 ERA/3.38 FIP/4.28 xFIP combo since the trade. All non-FIP estimators exceed his season 4.09 ERA by less than half a run. RHBs have a .302 wOBA and .321 xwOBA against him, but Jon Berti (107 wRC+) and Miguel Rojas (79 wRC+) cost $2.6K or less.

A trio of Kansas City bats also project for top DraftKings value against Dylan Bundy, who doesn’t walk anyone, but has struck out just 11 of his last 124 batters. He actually fares better against batters from the left-hand side (.302 wOBA, .304 xwOBA this year), but Vinnie Pasquantino (109 wRC+, .187 ISO), Drew Waters (73 wRC+, .135 ISO) and Michael Massey (107 wRC+) all cost $2.4K or less.

The Lineup That Includes Four Top Projected Bats

Despite a very small either five (DK) or six (FD) game slate, we find three teams exceeding five implied runs on two more above four and three-quarters, largely separating themselves from the remainder of the board all below four run team totals. PlateIQ hitter projections favor the top offense on the board with four Astros among the top seven projected bats tonight, including the top projected bat on the board, Yordan Alvarez (186 wRC+, .328 ISO vs RHP this year) against James Kaprielian, who has just a 5.3 K-BB% and 43.8 Z-O-Swing%. A 4.77 xERA aligns well with his 4.79 ERA. All other estimators are above five and he’s completed six innings just once since the break. While Kaprielian has more than a 50 point reverse split with batters from either side of the plate above a .310 wOBA, Statcast closes the gap to two points within a .335 xwOBA for either side. Alvarez sat out last night’s game, but even if he does so again tonight, Kyle Tucker (149 wRC+, .237 ISO), Jose Altuve (139 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Alex Bregman (161 wRC+, .237 ISO) all project as top bats tonight too.

A New York Mets offense that is just fifth best on the board with a 4.76 team run total and did absolutely nothing in a three game series against Cubs’ pitching, is the only other offense featuring multiple top 10 projected bats. J.T. Brubaker has had a tough run of it (12 runs, 18 innings) against three of the best offenses in the league (Braves, Blue Jays, Cardinals) over his last three starts (and gets another one here, though they are struggling) as they’ve popped him for four home runs, but only four barrels (7.0%). For the season, a .326 BABIP is responsible for 4.36 ERA that’s above all estimators except for a 4.40 xERA, suggesting he may deserve some of that punishment with a 40.7% hard hit rate (95+ mph EV). The Pirates have to be pretty content with the 14.5 K-BB% and remaining estimators nearly half a run lower though. He actually has eight Quality Starts in his last 18 outings. However, batters from either side of the plate are between a .322 and .346 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year and despite the most recent struggles, no batter in the projected lineup for the Mets falls below a 96 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Homering in two consecutive games, Pete Alonso (140 wRC+, .246 ISO) is one of the few Mets doing damage this week. He’s a top projected bat tonight along with Francisco Lindor (130 wRC+, .175 ISO).

Middle of the Board Pitching Includes Risk Without Much Upside

The quality pitching may be lacking on this board (or at least high upside pitching), but the top of the board still has the best matchups and with one quirky exception, the top priced pitchers are the top projected pitchers and values on either site. That quirky exception is the min-priced Drey Jameson currently projecting as the top DraftKings value in his major league debut. Despite already being 25, he is still a strongly regarded pitching prospect with 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). A January scouting report suggested a violent delivery could eventually land him in the bullpen, but he already had two above average pitches (fastball, slider) and two more that could be average (curveball, changeup), while his stock has only improved since then, though he has just a 13.2 K-BB% over 114 AAA innings this year and currently projects for an ERA above four. Do you really need a punt SP2 against the Padres (100 wRC+, 22.5 K% vs RHP) on this board though?

Should you still insist on paying less than $9K for pitching though, only available on FanDuel, Pablo Lopez’s troubles appear to be more than a bad run at this point. He’s allowed at least four runs in nine of his last 20 starts with the largest problem being 9.9% Barrels/BBE over that span that even his home park hasn’t been able to hide him from (16 home runs). More recently, he’s added some strikeout woes with an 18.6% mark over his last eight starts. A 4.08 xERA is his only estimator above a 4.04 ERA on the season, but everything except the strikeout rate is rising. More unfortunately, Lopez is a four-seam (38.4%) and changeup guy (35.1%) most of the time, two pitches the Phillies (103 wRC, 22.2 K% vs RHP) have pummeled since the break (0.45 wFB/C, 1.94 wCH/C). They’re also the hottest offense on the board with a team 148 wRC+, 15.9 K% and 21.3 HR/FB over the last week. None the less, on a weak board, in a great park, Lopez projects as the best FanDuel pitcher and value for less than $9K, which also projects him fourth overall in either category.

The next stop on our projected value tour, fifth best on either site, second best for less than $9K, is Sean Manaea, whom the Padres recently gave a couple of weeks off and even brought him out of the pen for four batters last week. A 66.0 LOB% is part of the reason his ERA now exceeds five, but he’s also allowed 15 home runs on 23 barrels (12.6%) over his last 11 starts with just a 20.3 K% over that span. Season estimators range from a 3.88 SIERA to a 4.54 FIP. The Diamondbacks do have an 87 wRC+ and 23.0 K% vs LHP, but five batters in tonight’s projected lineup exceed a 130 wRC+ vs LHP this year. You can see where this is all going. The top of the board may not shine, but it seems to get worse and worse the lower you go, but Manaea does cost just $7.6K on DraftKings.

It may even be worth forgoing strikeouts altogether and paying $7K for Dylan Bundy in a decent run and power prevention matchup. Bundy has struck out 11 of his last 124 batters. His double digit K-BB (11.5%) remains only because he doesn’t walk anyone (4.8%). A 4.02 xERA is his only estimator more than a quarter of a run removed from his 4.68 ERA. He’s recorded just two sixth inning outs over his last 13 starts. On a positive note, his four-seamer still grades well (-0.4 RV/100, 39.8%) and the Royals (87 wRC+, 22.3 K%, 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP) have struggled with fastballs (-0.45 wFB/C) since the break. They also have a team 33 wRC+, 25.5 K% and 2.3 HR/FB over the last week.

Marginal Top of the Board Enhanced by Great Matchups

This time it’s FanDuel adding the extra game and starting forty minutes earlier on a six game slate (five on DraftKings) that doesn’t include a single $10K pitcher on either site, but three reaching the $9K price point on both. Most expensively, Lance McCullers Jr. has struck out 13 of his last 53 batters (12.9 SwStr%) to bring him up to a 21.7 K% (10.8 SwStr%) through five starts, but he’s faced some of the most strikeout prone offenses so far (Angels twice, O’s, A’s, Braves) and the velocity has been in decline. He’s also walked 12.5% with a much lower ground ball rate (43.6%) than usual. That said, he is facing the A’s again here (84 wRC+, 23.8 K% vs RHP), who have been atrocious against 50% of his arsenal, sliders (-1.05 wSL/C) and curveballs (-0.84 wCB/C), since the break. The combination of a strong matchup in a negative run environment (assuming roof closure) on a small slate pushes this risky pitcher’s projection to the top of the board, by no small margin either. McCullers also projects as the top FanDuel value by a wide margin (second on DraftKings). If ownership projections should become overwhelming, he’s a pitcher players could consider coming in underweight on.

Carlos Carrasco looked much better in his second start back from the IL in Miami (six strikeouts, one run) than he did in his first against the Nationals (16 batters faced, five runs). He actually has five Quality Starts over his last eight and only two of those with more than a single run. He may no longer be the co-Ace of his Cleveland days, but a 16.1 K-BB% with all estimators within half a run of his 3.80 ERA is fine for the back end starter the Mets are asking him to be. There’s no use going through his pitch mix because the Pirates (83 wRC+, 25.0 K% vs RHP) have been awful against every pitch except splitters since the break. In a great spot in a great park, Carrasco is the second best projected pitcher on the board and the better FanDuel value (second best) for $400 less. He’s a top half of the board projected value on either site (just 10 pitchers on DraftKings tonight).

Eight strikeouts in his last start were the most for Miles Mikolas since June, but it was the Pirates. He generally adheres to the St Louis adage that the defense (15 Runs Prevented, 20 Outs Above Average) and park will take care of most things, just don’t walk anybody (4.6%). The great control gives him an above average 14.1 K-BB% and the defense and park keep his 3.42 ERA a bit below estimator ranging from a 3.79 xFIP to a 3.98 SIERA. He’s completed eight innings in three of his last six starts. He, too, has a strong home matchup against the Reds (84 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP), projecting him as the third best pitcher and value on either site at $9.2K or less. Considering the marginal quality atop the board tonight, you may be considering paying down for pitching tonight, but that may not be a great idea either because nobody on the slate (either site) reaches a 25% strikeout rate and the most expensive pitchers have the best matchups.

Top Smash Projection Not Expected to be Most Popular Stack

An eight game Wednesday night slates finds the Dodgers with the second highest team run total (4.69), less than one-tenth of a run removed from the top spot, currently expected to be the most popular stack on the board (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). Several stacks barely reach double digit ownership projections on DraftKings, while the Dodgers project to be a bit more popular than the Yankees on FanDuel. However, it’s the Baltimore Orioles projecting to smash the slate most often, at a rate around 15% against Patrick Corbin, whom RHBs have smashed for a wOBA and xwOBA around .400 this year with the Dodgers a bit behind them around 11%. The Orioles project as the overwhelming top value stack on FanDuel. They also top the DraftKings value projections by a decent margin, but not nearly as far ahead of the Nationals. For more on a couple of unconventionally top rated stacks, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Potential Min-Priced Leadoff Bat in a Great Spot Tops Value Projections

No single lineup is popping for a ton of value on tonight’s eight game slate, but projections do like a few pairs of batters from some of the top offenses on the board. Leading off (perhaps both literally and figuratively), Ryan McKenna (134 wRC+, .204 ISO vs LHP this season) projects as the top value on both sites for $2.1K or less and makes for an easy Baltimore stack with Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle projecting for top overall bats behind him in the projected lineup against Patrick Corbin (RHBs .395 wOBA, .402 xwOBA). Mountcastle (110 wRC+, .186 ISO), himself, also projects as a top FanDuel value for $2.7K. Jesus Aguilar (66 wRC+, .121 ISO) also projects as a top value on either site for $2.5K or less.

DraftKings projections also suggest a bit of value in the opposing, home lineup against Tyler Wells, who threw just 34 pitches in his first start back after missing all of August and is expected to be piggybacked by Austin Voth here. The expectation should be just three to four innings. A 3.77 xERA is his only estimator below a 3.91 ERA with just a 17.6 K%. A min-priced Alex Call (131 wRC+, .233 ISO) projects as a top three value on either site. C.J. Abrams (98 wRC+) and Nelson Cruz (73 wRC+) join him as top projected DraftKings values for $2.5K or less, but neither exceeds a .101 ISO against RHP this year.

With a high of five strikeouts this season, Zack Greinke’s 13.4 K% just isn’t getting it done anymore, even with a 4.5 BB% and just 7.5% Barrels/BBE. His 4.00 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 4.21 SIERA to a 5.10 DRA. He does have three Quality Starts in his last four outings, due to an 88.7 LOB%. Same handed batters (.335 wOBA, .352 xwOBA) have hit him slightly better than LHBs (.309 wOBA, .332 xwOBA). Max Kepler (94 wRC+, .126 ISO) and Gio Urshela (110 wRC+, .149 ISO) cost $2.1K each on FanDuel. A min-priced Jake Cave (77 wRC+, .205 ISO) is a top three projected value on DraftKings.

Lastly, if you’re in need of some cheap Yankees to pair with the top projected bats of Judge against Brayan Bello (batters from either side are within four points of a .350 wOBA, but no higher than a .320 xwOBA), Miguel Andujar (81 wRC+) projects as a a top value for $2.2K or less on either site, while Giancarlo Stanton (130 wRC+, .273 ISO) projects as both a top FanDuel bat and value for less than $3K.

Pair of Sluggers in Great Environment Project Atop the Board Again

Despite a lack of high end pitching, no offense exceeds five implied runs on an eight game slate that doesn’t include many of the top run environments in the league either. One-quarter of the board does have team run totals above four and a half runs though. Like yesterday, projections again favor two Yankee sluggers in the top run environment on the board, likely enhanced further by hitter friendly weather in Boston. The Yankees currently have the third highest team run total (4.68) against Brayan Bello, who has struck out 21 of 84 batters with a 14.2 SwStr% and half his contact on the ground in his most recent stint with the big league club, though he’s also walked nine. He is a well-regarded prospect (50 Future Value grade) with both a lot of strikeouts (33.8%) and walks (10%) at AAA this year. Batters from either side are within four points of a .350 wOBA against Bello, but no higher than a .320 xwOBA. Aaron Judge (217 wRC+, .392 ISO vs RHP this season) and Giancarlo Stanton (130 wRC+, .273 ISO) are the top two projected bats on the board.

We also find a pair of Orioles projecting among the top 10 against Patrick Corbin, who reverted back to form and took a beating in Philly last time out after a couple of strong starts. With just an 18.2 K% and an awful contact profile (90.8 mph EV, 11.5% Barrels/BBE, 45.9% 95+ mph EV), he has a 6.65 xERA that’s actually above his 6.30 ERA. He doesn’t have a single pitch worth more than 1 RV/100, where positive numbers are bad for pitchers. RHBs have crushed him (.395 wOBA, .402 xwOBA). Anthony Santander (159 wRC+, .248 ISO) projects right behind the two Yankees with Ryan Mountcastle (110 wRC+, .186 ISO) just a few spots behind him. The Orioles have a 4.6 run team total that’s fourth best on the board.

Continuing down the line, we find the top third of the Texas projected lineup that tops the board at 4.73 implied runs against J.P. Sears, who lasted just two innings with three home runs allowed to the White Sox in his last start. He has not been able to come close to replicating his 33.7 AAA K% this year with just a 16.0% mark at the major league level to go along with a 90.9 mph EV and 47.1% 95+ mph EV. His 3.33 ERA is purely the function of an 81.3 LOB% without a non-FIP estimator within a run. RHBs are within two points of a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while LHBs have a .303 wOBA, but .353 xwOBA. Corey Seager (116 wRC+, .244 ISO), Nathaniel Lowe (180 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Marcus Semien (112 wRC+, .163 ISO) all project as top bats tonight from an offense that has pummeled LHP this year (116 wRC+, 16.5 HR/FB).

Last up is a pair of Dodger teammates and guess where their team run total lies? That’s right, they’re second on the board (4.69) against Zach Davies, who continues to manage contact well (87 mph EV, 34.3% 95+ mph EV) with a below average strikeout rate (18.2%). He hasn’t completed six innings since June or has a single estimator that’s not at least a quarter of a run above his 4.09 ERA. Sinkers and changeups have comprised 87% of his arsenal this year. The Dodgers are a top three offense against both pitches since the break. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .303 and .333 wOBA and xwOBA against Davies this year. Mookie Betts (138 wRC+, .266 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (167 wRC+, .216 ISO) project to do the most damage.

Lots of Upside, Some Risk for Tonight's Top Projected Value

Opening LineupHQ and filtering the pitchers on tonight’s eight game slate by P/$, you have to go six pitchers deep on DraftKings and to the latter half of the board on FanDuel before finding a pitcher costing $9K or more. It seems like this may be a great slate to embrace more risk and pay down for pitching. The top projected value on either site by a pretty decent margin is David Peterson, who has a 27.6 K% and 51.2 GB%, but has trouble finding the plate (10.1 BB%). These control issues have limited him to just one six inning start over his last eight. A 3.99 xERA is his only estimator more than a quarter of a run removed from a 3.47 ERA. However, he has a high upside matchup (Cubs 95 wRC+, 23.7 K% vs LHP) in a great home park with some cooler, more pitcher friendly weather expected. Peterson has the potential to hurt himself, but also to throw a gem against a high strikeout, low walk projected lineup via PlateIQ. In fact, Peterson projects very similarly to Corbin Burnes overall.

Following Peterson’s value projection on FanDuel may be a number of pitchers you’re not considering using on a single pitcher site (Patrick Corbin against the O’s, Michael Grove in Arizona, Drew Smyly against the Mets and Brayan Bello facing the Yankees) until you get to another pair of $8K arms in Dane Dunning and Sonny Gray. Dunning has a 16.6 K% with a 6.3 K-BB% over his last 16 starts. Considering that this is now the majority of his season, he’s up to a 4.39 ERA that’s within a quarter run of all estimators. He’s completed six innings just three times since the start of July and has allowed 11 barrels (12.3%) over his last five starts. This is certainly a concern and Texas has begun opening the roof with the weather cooling off, which generally means a more positive run environment in that park. However, the A’s have just an 83 wRC+ and 23.7 K% vs RHP. Dunning is the second best projected DraftKings value for exactly $7K.

Gray has just eight Quality Starts this year, but three of them have come in his last five outings with his strikeout rate jumping to 27.1% over that span as well. He may have just an average ground ball rate for the first time in his career, but with a healthy 23.9 K%, 18.0 IFFB% and 5.0% Barrels/BBE, estimators still range from a 3.43 FIP to a 3.78 SIERA. Aside from workload concerns decreasing recently, the matchup is strong (Royals 88 wRC+, 22.3 K% and 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP, 49 wRC+ and 2.1 HR/FB last seven days). A few hundred dollars cheaper on DraftKings, Gray projects as the fifth best value and seems like a strong pivot from higher priced arms.

One last standalone pitcher who may be more interesting than his middling projection on a small slate, Ross Stripling has a 27 K% (13.6 SwStr%) over his last five starts, all Quality Starts. With elite control (4.2 BB%), he’s up to a 17.6 K-BB% with non-FIP estimators ranging tightly from a 3.44 xERA to a 3.61 SIERA. With just 10 of 26 barrels (7.9%) leaving the yard, his 3.03 ERA aligns well with a 3.09 FIP. The Rays offer some upside with a 102 wRC+, but 23.8 K% vs RHP. As with most domes, the run environment in Toronto increases with the roof open, so be sure to search Twitter for that information later.

Bello has struck out 21 of 84 batters with a 14.2 SwStr% and half his contact on the ground in his most recent stint with the big league club, though he’s also walked nine. He is a well-regarded prospect (50 Future Value grade) with both a lot of strikeouts (33.8%) and walks (10%) at AAA this year. The park and weather are terrible for pitching tonight and the Yankees have a 113 wRC+ vs RHP and 131 wRC+ over the last week, but he could be interesting for just $6.6K in an SP2 spot, if he can get around Judge.

Great Park & Weather, Tough Matchup for Tonight's Top Arm

An eight game Wednesday night slate includes one pitcher above $10K on both sites, one pitcher barely reaching that price point on DraftKings only and one more exceeding $9K on both. The 14 Giants Corbin Burnes struck out last time out not only represents a season high, but the first time he’d even punched out more than six in his last six starts. Pushing his strikeout rate back up to 31.3% (24.6 K-BB%) it was also his first Quality Start in five attempts. His 2.93 ERA is very much in line with a 2.94 SIERA and 2.94 xFIP. Burnes is in a tough spot tonight (Cardinals 120 wRC+ at home, 111 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP) in a great park with pitcher friendly weather expected. While he’s dominated the Cardinals twice this year, they have been the second best offense in the league against cutters since the break (1.77 wFC/C). Burnes throws his 56.2% of the time (-1.2 RV/100, 28.5 Whiff%). Burnes is your top projected pitcher on this slate, but only a middling projected value with a price tag of $10.5K or higher. Check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out if there are any other pitchers worth paying up for.

This Offense Makes a Clean Sweep of Stacking Projections

With a 4.98 team run total that ties for the top mark on the board, the Chicago White Sox currently project to be the most popular stack on the board (although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), only reaching a double digit ownership projection on DraftKings though and just barely. There’s really very little separation from the board with extremely high priced pitching likely being the largest priority without any offenses above five implied runs. The White Sox are also projected to smash the board most often and here there is a bit more separation, more so on FanDuel with one fewer game. Chad Kuhl has neither gone beyond five innings, nor allowed fewer than three runs in nine straight starts, over which he has a 9.02 ERA/8.16 FIP/5.42 xFIP. The White Sox also project as the top value stack (again by a larger margin on FanDuel). It’s a clean sweep…which makes you wonder why the White Sox aren’t projected to be even more popular. For more on Tuesday’s top rated stacks, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Projections Suggest This Lineup is Loaded with Value Against Struggling Southpaw

You’re paying for deGrom (or even Cole) and you need value bats. Even if you’re on DraftKings, no matter who your SP2 is. Projections suggest you can find a lot of those in Minnesota tonight, mostly on the home team side. Kris Bubic has both struck out and walked eight of his last 90 batters. With just a 6.8 K-BB% and 45.7% 95+ mph EV, his 5.40 ERA is probably right where it’s supposed to be and matches his DRA exactly. RHBs have a .331 wOBA and .342 xwOBA against Bubic this year. Four of the top six projected values on FanDuel are Twins, starting with the top projected bat on the board, Gio Urshela (101 wRC+, .144 ISO vs LHP this season). He is followed by Gary Sanchez (72 wRC+, .144 ISO), Kyle Garlick (148 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Nick Gordon (81 wRC+) all for $2.2K or less. You may notice that Gordon is a weak hitting lefty, but batters from that side exceed a .440 wOBA and xwOBA against Bubic this year. Garlick ($2.3K) is also the top projected DraftKings value, while a min-priced Gilberto Celestino (61 wRC+) is top 10 as well.

FanDuel projections also include a trio of White Sox among the top 10 values, including Gavin Sheets (110 wRC+, .182 ISO), who doubles as a top projected bat and value for $2.6K on both sites. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .346 and .365 wOBA and xwOBA against Chard Kuhl this season. Ever since shutting out the Dodgers on three hits at Coors, he has neither gone beyond five innings, nor allowed fewer than three runs in nine straight starts, over which he has a 9.02 ERA/8.16 FIP/5.42 xFIP. Yoan Moncada (58 wRC+) and Yasmani Grandal (43 wRC+) project much better than this year’s numbers and as top 10 FanDuel values for $2.5K or less as well.

DraftKings projections also like the minimum price tags on Alex Call (155 wRC+, .259 ISO) and C.J. Abrams (96 wRC+) against Dean Kremer (LHBs .271 wOBA, .310 xwOBA – RHBs .326 wOBA, .335 xwOBA). The same is true for Chad Pinder (106 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Nick Allen (82 wRC+) against Cole Ragans, who has walked more batters than he’s struck out and surrendered a .371 wOBA and .351 xwOBA to LHBs.