DFS Alerts

Two Predominantly Right-Handed Lineups Project Strongly Against LHP

Six of 22 teams on the Tuesday night slate have at least a 4.9 run team total with just one more above four and a half implied runs, but discussing our top projected bats has to start with a caveat that we don’t know who’s pitching for the Giants at Coors yet, beyond the opener. Now, we can mention that the top projected bat on the board is Aaron Judge (222 wRC+, .396 ISO vs RHP this year) with the Yankees at 5.33 implied runs against Luis Ortiz, making his second major league starts, but Judge is not joined by any other Yankees among the current top 10 projected bats.

The first pair of teammates we find among the top 10 projected bats on either site are a pair of Angels (4.43 implied runs) or rather, THE pair of Angels, against a rookie lefty who had a 20+ K-BB% in the minors this year, but just a 2.6 K-BB% at the major league level. Cole Ragans has exhibited a massive split (RHBs .389 wOBA, .370 xwOBA – LHBs .165 wOBA, .231 xwOBA), which certain justifies Mike Trout (202 wRC+, .340 ISO) as a top three projected bat, but Shohei Ohtani (128 wRC+, .220 ISO) also projects sixth best.

Also a top three projected bat, Ronald Acuna (104 wRC+, .139 ISO) and the Braves top the board at 5.81 implied runs at home against Patrick Corbin, who continues to get destroyed by RHBs (.388 wOBA, .396 xwOBA), which is why Austin Riley (208 wRC+, .376 ISO) and Dansby Swanson (138 wRC+, .189 ISO) also project among the top bats tonight.

We do know who’s pitching for the home team at Coors tonight and that’s Kyle Freeland (16.8 K% with 9.5% Barrels/BBE) against whom RHBs have a .326 wOBA and .328 xwOBA. If we spread out beyond the top 10 and consider the top 15 projected bats tonight, you’ll Austin Slater (133 wRC+, .149 ISO), David Villar (173 wRC+, .298 ISO), Wilmer Flores (105 wRC+, .170 ISO), Evan Longoria (121 wRC+, .206 ISO) and J.D. Davis (126 wRC+, .177 ISO). The Giants are tied for the second highest team total on the board at 5.75 runs.

Mid-Range Pitching Doesn't Appear to be Where the Value is At

While we can find reasons to fade the most expensive arms tonight, the top two projected pitchers and values on the board are both in the $9K range tonight, but are there any additional arms we can consider on a single pitcher site and who are our cheaper SP2 types on DraftKings? The answer to the first question may be no. Among the top five projected values on FanDuel, all are either more than $9K or less than $6K (Austin Voth against the Tigers and Luis Ortiz at the Yankees). Voth has a great matchup (72 wRC+, 25.2 K%, 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but has just a 7.3 K-BB% over his last 26 innings with his velocity in steady decline. He’s thrown just 17 pitches over the last 10 days, as the O’s may have been looking to give him a break to see if he can bounce back. He still has a near average 12.9 K-BB% on the season with all estimators below his 4.36 ERA without any dropping below four. This is a great spot, but we probably shouldn’t expect six innings here though. Aaron Ashby projects as the seventh best FanDuel value for $7K, but probably won’t be pitching very deep into his game against the Mets (105 wRC+, 20.2 K%, 8.6 BB% vs LHP) in his first start back from the IL.

A 23.6 K% might be a bit disappointing after Patrick Sandoval punched out 25.9% last year and he’s walked a few too many (9.3%), but the contact profile has been a major positive (87.3 mph EV, 5.3% Barrels/BBE, 33.9% 95+ mph EV). You would think that the xERA would be the estimator outlier, more closely aligning with his 2.99 ERA, but it’s actually his worst estimator at 4.03. Go figure. With eight of 20 barrels leaving the yard, a 3.18 FIP is his best. He costs exactly $9K, as the eighth best projected FanDuel value, but the Rangers have punished LHP this year (115 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 16.7 HR/FB vs LHP). Stick to those $9K guys on FanDuel.

If you’re absolutely looking to punt your DK SP2, Cole Ragans struck out more batters than he walked for just the second time in six starts. Both times against the A’s. A 2.6 K-BB% is a far cry from his 20+ K-BB% at both AA and AAA this year, which suggests some upside against the Angels (88 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs LHP) for just $5.2K, while Sandoval costs just $7.4K on DK and Voth $6.7K.

Most Expensive Arm Facing Lowest Strikeout Rate

We have an 11 game Tuesday night slate that includes the second game of the double header out west on BOTH sites tonight with the caveat that projections for that game won’t be available until the first game starts later. We also have a Carlos Rodon scratch with the Giants going with a bullpen game. That takes one of the most expensive pitchers off the board, but may matter less at Coors. That leaves Dylan Cease as the only $10K pitcher on both sites with one more just on DraftKings and another three reaching the $9K price point on both sites. After a short hiccup, it looks like Cease is in control of his…well, control again, walking just seven of his last 102 batters, flirting with a single digit walk rate (10.1%) to go along with a 31.8 K% (15.8 SwStr%, 78.2 Z-Contact%). Walks have clearly been the only issue holding Cease back this year with a quality contact profile that includes an 87.3 mph EV, 6.4% Barrels/BBE, and 32.3% Barrels/BBE. A full one-fifth of his runs have been unearned, which explains the gap between his 2.16 ERA and estimators ranging from a 2.56 xERA to a 3.31 xFIP. Cease’s slider may be the best non-deGrom pitch in baseball this year (42.8%, -2.9 RV/100, 45.1 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .200). The Guardians have struggled with sliders since the break (-0.32 wSL/C), but the problem, of course, is that they also own a mere 17.3 K% (103 wRC+ vs RHP). In this extremely difficult spot, Cease projects as just the sixth best arm on the slate and also as a bottom six value. For a detailed rundown of all of tonight’s most expensive pitchers, including the top two projected pitchers and values, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Stacking Projections Favor Two Offenses Well Above Rest of the Board

On a seven game slate with some clear separation, where just two teams fall between four and five implied runs and both exceed four and a half run team totals, we find the affordable San Francisco Giants have actually fallen to the second highest team run total (5.68), just behind the Braves, but still project to be the most popular offense on the board because you can stack Giants with expensive pitching. The Giants also project to smash the slate just slightly more frequently than the Braves, though both teams separate from the rest of the board there. As mentioned, the affordability of the Giants projects a strong value rating on either site, though the Miami Marlins project as a better value on DraftKings with many of them costing less than $3K from the right-hand side against Wade Miley. For more on which stacks rate best on both sites tonight, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Visiting Bats Are Far Underpriced in this Park

As often happens when Coors is on the slate, and especially on FanDuel, visiting bats are generally underpriced, with many projecting as the top bats and values. Tonight is no different. In fact, Joc Pederson (144 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP this year) projects as the top bat and value on FanDuel against Chad Kuhl (batters from either side of the plate exceed a .345 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year). In fact, the top three projected values on either site are Giants, though not necessarily the same ones. In fact, LaMonte Wade Jr. (106 wRC+, .206 ISO) is the only one projecting as a top three (or even two) value on either site. He also projects as a top 10 bat overall. Brandon Crawford (84 wRC+, .121 ISO) and Mike Yastrzemski (99 wRC+, .156 ISO) also double as top 10 projected bats and top FanDuel projected values. All cost between $2.8K and $3.1K on FD. On DraftKings, Luis Gonzalez (109 wRC+, .133 ISO) and Austin Wynns (87 wRC+, .123 ISO) also project as top three values for less than $2.5K.

The only other lineup projecting multiple top 10 values on both sites is the Miami Marlins. Wade Miley generates a lot of weak (85.7 mph EV, 33.3% 95+ mph EV) ground balls (55 GB%), but with just a 10.4 K-BB%, while RHBs have a .298 wOBA and .295 xwOBA against him. It’s the price tags we like in this negative run environment. Nick Fortes (102 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Brian Anderson (123 wRC+, .200 ISO) cost $2.2K or less on FanDuel. Bryan De La Cruz (39 wRC+), Miguel Rojas (58 wRC+) and Charles LeBlanc (98 wRC+, .132 ISO) all cost $2.3K or less on DraftKings.

A pair of Orioles are also projecting as top DraftKings values against Tyler Alexander (RHBs .360 wOBA, .347 ISO). Ryan McKenna (126 wRC+, .196 ISO) and Jesus Aguilar (68 wRC+) both cost less than $2.5K. Alexander has struck out more than two in just four of his 13 starts with a high of five (12.3 K%). On top of this, he’s allowed 10.6% Barrels/BBE and has a nearly matching 5.35 ERA and 5.39 xERA.

Two Offenses Dominate Batter Projections Tonight

We can certainly separate Monday’s seven game slate into tiers. Topping the board, above five implied runs are both Coors offenses and the Braves in a home matchup with Cory Abbott. After a half run of separation, we get the Dodgers and Orioles exceeding four and a half team run totals then a large, nearly full run gap. Needless to say, these are the clear five offenses most people will be looking to roster tonight and current PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) are currently favoring two of those offenses above five implied runs the most. In fact, all of the top 10 projected bats on both sites come from one of those three teams and Ryan McMahon (105 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP this year) is the only home Coors bat among that group. LHBs have a .348 wOBA, but just .308 xwOBA against Jakob Junis this year.

From the visiting side, Chad Kuhl has now allowed at least three runs in 10 straight starts since shutting out the Dodgers at Coors back in June, but his last start was the first time he’d completed six innings over that span and earned a Quality Start. The 25.0 HR/FB (16 home runs), 33.6 GB%, 92.3 mph EV and 14.3% Barrels/BBE (22 barrels) over this span are the story. On the season, he has just an 8.2 K-BB%, allowing 9.6% Barrels/BBE with only a 4.81 xFIP more than half a run below his 5.33 ERA. His sinker (43.3%, 2.5 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .440) has been a stinker. Joc Pederson (144 wRC+, .259 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board. LaMonte Wade Jr. (106 wRC+, .206 ISO), Mike Yastrzemski (99 wRC+, .156 ISO), Wilmer Flores (105 wRC+, .184 ISO) and Brandon Crawford (84 wRC+, .121 ISO) all project among the top 10 tonight. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .345 wOBA and xwOBA against Kuhl this year.

Cory Abbott has a respectable 20.8 K% with a league average 10.6 SwStr%, but everything else is a mess (10.4 BB%, 26.5 GB%, 11.7% Barrels/BBE). Yet, a 3.73 xERA is his only estimator not more than two-tenths of a run above his 4.37 ERA. He’s throwing his four-seamer 51.3% of the time (9.3 Whiff%). That profile is just not going to work against the Braves (0.66 wFB/C since the break). Abbott has displayed a fairly wide split (LHBs .375 wOBA, .320 xwOBA – RHBs .301 wOBA, .278 xwOBA) that you’d think might help him here against a predominantly right-handed lineup, but this is the most positive run environment on the board behind Coors (far behind Coors) and the Braves’ RHBs hit RHP well. Your top projected Braves are Ronald Acuna (121 wRC+, .150 ISO), Austin Riley (124 wRC+, .231 ISO), Matt Olson (111 wRC+, .242 ISO) and Dansby Swanson (107 wRC+, .150 ISO). Basically, the entire top half of the projected lineup.

Reasons to Consider Paying Down for Pitching

With top of the board pitching including tough matchups, potential workload issues and possibly even under the radar injury issues (Kyle Wright arm fatigue), perhaps the clever thing to do is pay down for pitching and let’s start with the second best projected pitcher on the board, costing $9.6K on FanDuel, but more than $2K less on DraftKings. Edward Cabrera has a healthy 25.8 K% (13.1 SwStr%) with a 29.5 Z-O-Swing% and strong contact profile (86.4 mph EV, 32.6% 95+ mph EV), but a 12.3 BB% means that he’s only completed six innings in one of his last nine starts. Estimators ranging from a 3.63 DRA to a 4.59 FIP are well above his 2.70 ERA (.199 BABIP, 88.8 LOB%). However, he also has a decent matchup with some upside (Cubs 98 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP) in a great park in Miami. In addition to projecting as the second best arm on the slate, Cabrera also projects as the top DraftKings value and is behind only one other pitcher that you probably can’t consider using on a single pitcher like FanDuel.

That top projecting FanDuel value is Tyler Wells ($7.1K), who threw only 50 pitches (four innings, 14 batters) in his second start back from the IL, so we can’t be looking at much more than 65-70 and four to five innings here. In fact, he’s averaged less than five innings per start for the year. Even against the Tigers (71 wRC+, 25.3 K%, 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP, 48 wRC+, 31.8 K% last seven days), that’s probably not worth chasing a 17.9 K% with only a single estimator below four (3.79 xERA). He’s a bit more interesting in an SP2 role on DraftKings for $6.1K, where he projects as the second best value behind Cabrera.

Luis Garcia is up to a 4.04 ERA that matches his 4.03 FIP with 22 of his 32 barrels (8.1%) leaving the yard. A 17.4 K-BB% is otherwise fairly healthy with remaining estimators ranging from a 3.52 xERA to a 3.81 xFIP. Considering he has just a 34.9% hard hit rate (95+ mph EV), the 12.8 HR/FB seems a bit fluky. Garcia’s allowed between three and four runs in seven of his last eight starts (4.82 ERA/3.90 FIP/4.30 xFIP). The matchup has some upside (103 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP) with a park upgrade. Garcia projects as the third best DraftKings value ($8.3K), but is clustered among three or four arms projecting from the third to seventh best values on FanDuel, where he’s $800 more.

Projecting as a middle of the board value, Wade Miley has started six games this season with multiple IL trips in between, not exceeding 83 pitches in any of them. As usual, he’s generating a lot of weak (85.7 mph EV, 33.3% 95+ mph EV) ground balls (55 GB%) with just a 10.4 K-BB%. He’s also generated five popups to two barrels (2.5%) and has a 28.0 Z-O-Swing%. Estimators range from a 3.21 FIP to a 4.39 DRA. He costs just $6.6K on DraftKings, in Miami (68 wRC+, 27.9 K% vs LHP) and has to be in strong consideration for your SP2 spot.

Costing just $5.9K on DraftKings, while Jakob Junis has just five Quailty Starts in 16 tries, he’s probably been more effective than his 4.15 ERA suggests. He’s struck out batters at a near average 20.9% with great control (5.2 BB%) and a 29.3 Z-O-Swing%. All estimators are more than one-quarter run lower, but none are more than half a run below actual results. The obvious problem here is Coors, though with the Rockies owning just a 79 wRC+ (22.3 K%) vs RHP and 31 wRC+ (31.1 K%, 7.1 HR/FB) over the last seven days, a cheap, competent Coors arm may be viable on this slate.

Tonight's Most Expensive Arm May Have Some Workload Issues

A seven game slate on both sites starts a half hour earlier tonight and includes three $10K pitchers with one more costing exactly $9.7K on each site. A key theme we’re probably going to encounter several times today is decreased workloads. Starting with the most expensive pitcher on the board, returning from a two week IL stint, facing just 14 batters in a rehab start last week, Max Scherzer is one of several pitchers on this slate who could be on a lighter workload than usual. It’s interesting to note that his 30.6 K% is his lowest since he was in Detroit, so perhaps he is finally showing some small signs of aging (aside from the nagging injuries beginning to pile up), but the 4.6 BB% is also his lowest since his first year in Washington. And really, who’s going to complain about a guy with a 2.26 ERA and only a single estimator above three (3.32 xFIP), allowing just a 32.3% hard contact rate (95+ mph EV)? Considering the potential workload limitation, the substantial park downgrade (especially if the roof is open) and tough matchup (Brewers 109 wRC+, 22.9 K%, 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP), Scherzer is merely tonight’s fifth best projected pitcher and a bottom half of the board projected value. For more on tonight’s most expensive pitchers, including the top projected one, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Julio Rodríguez (back) scratched Saturday

Julio Rodríguez (back) scratched Saturday

Javier Báez scratched Saturday

Javier Báez scratched Saturday

LaMonte Wade Jr. (side) scratched Friday.

LaMonte Wade Jr. (side) scratched Friday.

The Offense That Projects to Smash the Slate Against Fading Former Star

A large 14 game slate finds no single stack currently projecting above nine percent ownership on either site (or eight percent on FanDuel) with the Padres projecting to smash the slate most often (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), barely reaching a 10% smash rate with the Blue Jays closely on their tails before some separation from the rest of the board. The Padres (4.61) are the lowest of seven teams exceeding four and a half run team totals on this slate, though oddsmakers could certainly be undervaluing how far Madison Bumgarner has fallen. The Blue Jays (4.99) have the fourth highest team run total. FanDuel projections currently suggest Miami is the top value stack, while the Diamondbacks and Tigers are essentially tied for that honor on FanDuel, but again with very little separation at the top on a very large slate. For more on tonight’s top rated stacks, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Cheap, Top Projecting Value Bats Against Power Prone Pitching

Looking for value bats on a large slate with a lot of expensive pitching? The only lineup that projections for both sites agree include a lot of that is the Miami Marlins. This despite Josiah Gray also projecting as the top pitching value on the slate. He’s also allowed 36 home runs on 42 barrels (11.5%) and while there’s bound to be some regression from a 19.6 HR/FB (even if not this year), that’s still a ton of barrels. Making it even worse is that he’s struck out just eight of his last 69 batters with 12 walks. He does have a large split that the Marlins won’t be able to fully exploit (LHBs .413 wOBA, .364 xwOBA – RHBs .306 wOBA, .285 xwOBA), but J.J. Bleday (92 wRC+, .154 ISO vs RHP this season) does bat from that side, costing less than $2.5K on either site. Batting from the right side, in the same price range, Garrett Cooper (122 wRC+, .163 ISO) projects as a top DraftKings value along with a min-priced Charles LeBlanc (108 wRC+. 156 ISO). Speaking of min-priced top value, that’s the situation Nick Fortes 106 wRC+, .157 ISO) also finds himself in on FanDuel.

While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Spinger project as top of the board bats against Jordan Lyles tonight (RHBs .327 wOBA & xwOBA), FanDuel projections suggest pairing them with Cavan Biggio (111 wRC+, .172 ISO) and Matt Chapman (117 wRC+, .211 ISO) for top value at $2.5K or less. LHBs have a .376 wOBA and .361 xwOBA against Lyles, who has allowed 10.3% Barrels/BBE this year.

Not because they’re good, but because they’re often min-priced, DraftKings projections are finding some value in Detroit bats against another top projected pitching value in Lucas Giolito, who has a massive reverse split this year (RHBs .404 wOBA, .346 xwOBA – LHBs .289 wOBA, .293 xwOBA). None the less, it’s a pair of LHBs in Victor Reyes (88 wRC+) and Harold Castro (89 wRC+) that projections are finding the most value in, along with the right-handed Spencer Torkelson (71 wRC+), all costing no more than $2.1K. Of course, Reyes does have the option of batting right-handed as a switch hitter, though we rarely ever see that occur.(NOTE: The Detroit lineup was released just after this was posted and Harold Castro is not in it.)

Pair of Offenses Projecting Multiple Top of the Board Bats

Despite a large 14 game slate, only three offenses exceed five runs (none five and a half) and four more are above four and a half team run totals. It’s not an elite pitching board, but it is a strong and fairly deep one. The lineup projections seem to like the most is the Houston Astros, who have the third best team run total (5.17) against the Athletics. Through eight starts, Adrian Martinez has struck out just 17.9% of batters, but with an 11.1 SwStr% and 6.9 BB%. Considering his 25.7 K% at AAA this year and 25.4% at AA last year, there may be some additional upside here. A .331 BABIP, 68.4 LOB% and 15.9 HR/FB are responsible for 5.59 ERA that exceeds estimators ranging from a 4.29 xFIP to a 5.27 xERA. None of that sounds very good, but an increase in strikeout rate would cure some of that. His most frequently thrown pitch (52.4%) and worst graded one (2.9 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .400) is a sinker and the Astros have hammered fastballs since the break (0.64 wFB/C). RHBs have a .396 wOBA and .359 xwOBA against him so far, while LHBs have a .304 wOBA and .343 xwOBA, which means Statcast sees much less of a split and that suits the Astros just fine. Yordan Alvarez (185 wRC+, .328 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top projected bat on the board with Alex Bregman slightly lower (160 wRC+, 235 ISO) with Jose Altuve (139 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Kyle Tucker (151 wRC+, .238 ISO) on the edge of the top 10.

The Toronto Blue Jays are the only other offense projecting multiple top 10 bats with the fourth highest team run total (4.99) on this large slate. Jordan Lyles got walloped for eight runs by the Red Sox last time out and despite 13.2 innings with just a single earned run allowed immediately preceding this, he’s struck out just five of his last 74 batters. His season strikeout rate is down to 18% with 10.3% Barrels/BBE. His 4.62 ERA is within half a run of all estimators, although 11 of his last 24 have somehow been Quality Starts. A very predominantly right-handed lineup, batters from that side have an agreeable .327 wOBA and xwOBA against Lyles this year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (140 wRC+, .217 ISO) and George Springer (129 wRC+, .197 ISO) project as top 10 bats tonight.

Mid-Range Pitchers Projecting as Top Values

While 25% of Friday’s 14 game slate exceeds $9K on both sites tonight and many of them do project as top of the board pitchers tonight, point per dollar projections on either site suggest that it might be okay to pay down for arms. There is no pitcher projecting as a top four value on either site costing more than $9K right now. Are any of them usable on a single pitcher site though?

Let’s start at the top. Your top projecting value on either site is within $400 of $8K on either. Josiah Gray has now allowed 36 home runs on 42 barrels (11.5%) and while there’s bound to be some regression from a 19.6 HR/FB (even if not this year), that’s still a ton of barrels. Making it even worse is that he’s struck out just eight of his last 69 batters with 12 walks. Considering the results he was getting with a high strikeout rate, this new turn is disastrous. With just a 14.7 K-BB% on the year now, even contact neutral estimators exceed four, while a 4.31 xERA suggests It may be more of a contact elevation problem than a hard contact one overall. The good news for him is that his slider still grades well (29.1%, -1.4 RV/100, 40.9 Whiff%, .257 wOBA, .219 xwOBA) and Miami is the worst offense in the league against that pitch since the break (-1.51 wSL/C), as well as owning a 92 wRC+ and 22.8 K% vs RHP overall. More good news for Gray here is a predominantly right-handed lineup and Gray has a very large split this year (LHBs .413 wOBA, .364 xwOBA – RHBs .306 wOBA, .285 xwOBA). Gray is high risk and the strikeout decline towards the end of a long season is concerning, but the matchup should give him some upside in this spot. He still may be difficult to trust on a single pitcher site right now.

Lucas Giolito has correlated a lot of his issues this season with an early season injury and has never fully gotten on track. The strikeout rate is still above average (25.3%), but still his lowest since 2018 and just when we think he’s gotten his barrel issues under control, he’s allowed seven of his last three starts (8.3% on the year). That’s still lower than his 8.6% walk rate and don’t even get started on the BABIP (.352). At least we can count on the latter regressing, which is why his 5.18 ERA is more than three-quarters of a run above estimators ranging from a 3.65 xFIP to a 4.37 xERA. What we love here again, is the matchup (Tigers 72 wRC+, 25.2 K%, 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a decent environment at a decent price. Giolito projects as a top five arm overall and a top three value on either site, who certainly can be considered on a single pitcher site, though he costs exactly $9K on FanDuel ($1.2K less on DraftKings).

Either the third or fourth best projecting value on either site for less than $8K, people were excited when Jack Flaherty returned from a long IL stint for the second time this year, but this time with velocity intact as he struck out six of 23 Nationals, allowing only a run over five innings. Excitement may have faded when he held that velocity against the Pirates, but walked four without striking out any of the 23 batters he faced. He did allow two home runs and barrels. This is really the third straight lost season for Flaherty, who has more walks than strikeouts through five starts and you have to start to wonder because the only decent offense he’s faced this year has been Milwaukee. He’s in another great spot here against the Reds (85 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP), but has to be considered very high risk now.

Just to illustrate the volatility, Jesus Luzardo followed up a seven outing, two run, two walk, nine strikeout performance against the Phillies with a 3.1 innings, five run, three walk, three strikeout one against the Mets. The Marlins are thankful there’s been less of the bad and more of the good this year, as Luzardo has rebounded to 27.7 K% (17.9 K-BB%) with a 3.81 ERA that’s above all estimators, ranging from a 3.34 FIP to a 3.74 DRA. He actually has seven Quality Starts over his last 11 outings. He gets a park downgrade against a below average (91 wRC+, 8.4 HR/FB), but contact prone offense (20.1 K%) against LHP, projecting as the sixth best value on either site within $300 of $9K and has the upside to carry a team on a single pitcher site.

Lastly, we have to talk about the two New York pitchers tonight. Just when we thought he was back, Frankie Montas struggled in his second straight start against the Rays with four runs, walks and strikeouts after having one hit them with seven strikeouts previously. Even more concerning was another velocity drop. His overall numbers are still strong (17.1 K-BB% with a 34.7% hard hit rate) and he’s even had a few strong starts with the Yankees recently, but always seems to get sidetracked. A 3.94 xERA is still his only estimator exceeding a 3.89 ERA. The question is probably more about health than talent at this point. If healthy, he’s underpriced (within $100 of $8.5K on either site), even in a difficult matchup (Brewers 109 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 15.3 HR/FB) in a potentially dangerous park (if the roof is open), but we really don’t know the answer to that question, which certainly increases the risk and range of outcomes.

Even against the Marlins, it was a surprise to see Taijuan Walker strike out 10 of 26 batters over seven shutout innings because, though not to the extent of last year, he had been struggling in the second half again. Even with that outing, he has a 5.44 ERA/5.32 FIP/4.77 xFIP combo over nine post-break starts. On the season, he has just a 19.1 K% with all non-FIP estimators more than half a run above his 3.48 ERA, as just 12 of his 31 barrels (7.7%) have left the yard. The Pirates (83 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs RHP) are a tremendous matchup in a great park, but Walker costs $1.1K more on FanDuel, where he’d have to hit his ceiling for a second straight start to pay off.