DFS Alerts

Two Thumpers Projected to Punish Hard Contact Prone Pitcher in Great Park

Not a single team on a 10 game slate (we still don’t have information for the second game of the Tampa Bay/Toronto double-header, available only on DraftKings), we don’t have a single offense exceeding five implied runs, although the Mets (Adrian Sampson), White Sox (Chad Kuhl) and Twins (Kris Bubic) all come very close, while four more offenses also exceed four and a half team run totals. The Yankee lineup in general may be struggling, but Aaron Judge (212 wRC+, .380 ISO vs RHP this season) is not and he is the top projected bat on the board tonight at Fenway, against Nick Pivetta. Since striking out nine of 25 Orioles with a single walk, Pivetta has struck out just one more batter than he’s walked over his last three starts. He can occasionally throw a gem and the 13.5 K-BB% isn’t even bad, but opponents have a 90.4 mph EV with only 38.3% of the contact on the ground against him. He’s completed six innings in just two of his last 12 starts and all estimators are within half a run of his 4.29 ERA with only a 3.91 DRA below three. RHBs have a .306 wOBA, but .325 xwOBA against him. Giancarlo Stanton (131 wRC+, .278 ISO) is the third best projected bat on the board.

Eloy Jimenez (158 wRC+, .194 ISO) is the bat projections sandwich in between the two Yankees. Ever since shutting out the Dodgers on three hits at Coors (yes, that is a thing that really happened this year), Chad Kuhl has neither gone beyond five innings, nor allowed fewer than three runs in nine straight starts, over which he has a 9.02 ERA/8.16 FIP/5.42 xFIP. On the season, he has just a 7.9 K-BB%, 90.6 mph EV and no estimators below 4.87 (SIERA & xFIP). To make matters worse, his only positively graded pitch this year is a slider (36.4%, -1 RV/100, 35.9 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .275), while the White Sox are the second best slider hitting team (1.12 wSL/C) since the break. That may be why we find three White Sox projecting among the top 10 tonight with Jose Abreu (138 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Gavin Sheets (110 wRC+, .182 ISO) slightly behind Jimenez. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .346 and .365 wOBA and xwOBA against Kuhl this year.

We also find a pair of Orioles atop the lineup projecting as top 10 bats against Corey Abbott in Washington. About two-thirds of Abbott’s work this season has been as a starter. He’s missed bats at an average rate (21.3 K%) with a respectable 11.7 K-BB%, but also has a 90.5 Z-Contact%, 26.4 GB% and has allowed 12.0% Barrels/BBE. A .202 BABIP and 86.8 mph EV are responsible for a 4.22 ERA being below all estimators with one exception. A 3.34 xERA that makes absolutely not sense considering all the barrels. LHBs have a .366 wOBA, but more average .307 xwOBA against him in a small sample. Projections believe Cedric Mullins (131 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Adley Rutschman (151 wRC+, .228 ISO) may do some damage.

Two Viable Mid-Range Arms

Let’s start with the notion that you’re jamming Jacob deGrom into your daily fantasy lineup if you can find any way to do so. With that said, six of the top eight currently projected top values for less than $11K on FanDuel are difficult to justify on a single pitcher site. The seventh best projected value, Joey Ryan ($8.9K) may be the most interesting in a home matchup against the Royals (89 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP, 55 wRC+, 4.4 HR/FB last seven days). While Ryan had been giving up some runs recently, mostly due to 13.3% Barrels/BBE over his last eight starts, last time out was the first time he’d combined poor run prevention with a poor strikeout to walk ratio in quite some time. In fact, in the eight starts going into his last one, he’d had a 22.5 K-BB%, but 5.44 ERA. You would think that even his 16.6 K-BB% on the season would produce estimators below four, but not so with a 26.6 GB%. In fact, a 3.83 xERA with 9.4% Barrels/BBE is his only estimator below his 4.05 ERA. It’s an odd profile, but estimators have issues with extreme fly ball pitchers. An offense struggling to hit the ball out may be just the solution he’s looking for right now. For $800 less, Ryan projects as the fifth best DraftKings value, but may still be a tough SP2 fit behind a $12K pitcher.

Projecting as either the eighth or ninth best value, Jordan Montgomery has lowered his swinging strike rate (10.4%) and increased his strikeout rate (23.2%) since the trade (his walk rate has remained 4.9%). No, it doesn’t make any sense, but it works and is within a supportable range. The one thing that does make sense is the Cardinals encouraging more ground balls (56%) with one of the best defenses in baseball behind him (15 Runs Prevented), especially in the infield. Montgomery has a 1.45 ERA/2.29 FIP/3.05 xFIP since joining St Louis. He’s already dominated a Milwaukee offense that struggles against LHP (86 wRC+, 26.0 K%), striking out eight of 24 over six shutout innings in his second National League start.

If you need to punt your SP2 behind deGrom, the only attractive thing about Chad Kuhl is that he costs less than $6K against a below average offense (White Sox 95 wRC+ vs RHP) outside Coors. Ever since shutting out the Dodgers on three hits at Coors (yes, that is a thing that really happened this year), he has neither gone beyond five innings, nor allowed fewer than three runs in nine straight starts, over which he has a 9.02 ERA/8.16 FIP/5.42 xFIP. Ken Waldichuk is a highly regarded prospect just slightly more expensive, but the Rangers have smashed LHP (116 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 16.6 HR/FB). Kris Bubic has both struck out and walked eight of his last 90 batters. With just a 6.8 K-BB% and 45.7% 95+ mph EV, his 5.40 ERA is probably right where it’s supposed to be and matches his DRA exactly. You could also wait to see who the Rays and Blue Jays send out for Game Two, if it doesn’t end up being a double bullpen game.

This Pitcher Has Historically Strong Projections Tonight

FanDuel is offering a 10 game Tuesday night slate, while DraftKings has again made the decision to include the second game of a double header in Toronto that does not have confirmed pitchers as of this writing. This is still a slate that includes five pitchers at $10K or above and another reaching $9K on both sites. Costing within $200 of $12K on either site, Jacob deGrom struck out “only” eight of 24 Pirates last time out with his lowest swinging strike rate of the year (17.6%). He’s allowed a total of 20 hits and five barrels (5.9%) over 43.1 innings with a 38.8 K-BB%. He has five straight Quality Starts and two seven inning outings with less than 95 pitches in a row, while his 1.66 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators with the exception of a 2.40 DRA that must be out of it’s mind. The Cub (98 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP) are the second worst offense against fastballs since the break (-0.76 wFB/C). Let’s see how they do against 100 mph at the letters. The weather is projected to be hitter friendly at Citi Field tonight, but who cares? DeGrom will eventually have an off start, but who wants to actually bet on that happening? His overall raw point total and value projections are through the roof tonight, far beyond any other pitcher on the board…on the season? Ever? The Cubs have a real full game run total of 1.88 tonight. For much more on tonight’s most expensive pitchers, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Top Team Run Totals Not Projected to Smash the Slate Most Often

Current projections don’t see any stack being overwhelmingly popular on a six or seven game slate, but with few viable pitching choices and nearly all of them at the top of the board, value is expected to trump raw numbers with Cincinnati projected to be slightly more popular than Pittsburgh on DraftKings and the Dodgers are Fanduel. However, despite just the third highest implied run line, the Reds are also projected to smash the slate about 50% more often than any other team (although projections are fluid and certainly subject to change). The team that projects to smash the slate second most often isn’t even one of the four offenses exceeding four and a half implied runs either. More on why that may be the case in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog. The Reds project to be the top value stack on DraftKings tonight, by a decent margin over Pittsburgh, but that’s flip flopped on FanDuel.

Some Top Offenses Projecting For Top Value Too

Considering the quality pitching is basically all at the top of the board tonight, players are going to need some salary savers for their lineups tonight. The good news, depending on your point of view, is that some of the top projecting bats are also top projecting values. Jake Fraley (142 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP this season) is not only the top projected bat on the board, but a top five projected value on either site for $3K or less against Bryse Wilson (LHBs .415 wOBA, .393 xwOBA). TJ Friedl (96 wRC+, .192 ISO) also doubles as a top projected bat and value on both sites. With RHBs owning a healthy .332 wOBA and .341 xwOBA against Wilson as well, Donovan Solano (95 wRC+) is your top projecting FanDuel value ($2.1K) and Aristides Aquino (80 wRC+, .213 ISO) is your top projecting DraftKings value ($2.0), while also being a top 10 projected value on FD ($2.7K).

So that’s basically it. Stack Reds with expensive pitching. However, if you’re worried about ownership on a small slate, projections from either site also suggest some value in the visiting lineup in Cincinnati as well. Mike Minor has just a 12.9 K% over his last five starts and is down to a 9.3 K-BB% for the season. He doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact (34.6%), but with just a 36.1 GB%, 8.6% of his contact have still been barrels and pitching in Cincinnati hasn’t helped with 20 of 26 barrels leaving the yard (15.3 HR/FB). His 5.70 ERA nearly matches his 5.75 FIP, though remaining estimators range all the way from a 4.75 SIERA to a 6.16 DRA. RHBs have a .402 wOBA and still fairly strong .348 xwOBA against Minor and the park likely plays into that. However, it’s LH Jack Suwinski (52 wRC+, .182 ISO) as the only Pirate projecting as a top 10 value on both DraftKings and FanDuel for $2.3K or less. LHBs are below a .290 wOBA and xwOBA against Minor this year, so this is all predicated on him getting a hold of one. For less than $2.5K, Michael Chavis (105 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Rodolfo Castro (113 wRC+. 273 ISO) project as top DraftKings values, while Bryan Reynolds (106 wRC+, .152 ISO) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (130 wRC+, .165 ISO) project as top FanDuel values for $2.5K or less.

FanDuel projections also suggest adding Tyler Naquin (125 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Daniel Vogelbach (142 wRC+, .239 ISO) to your Mets stacks for $2.2K each to go with the top projected bats of Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor against Javier Assad, who has faced just 21 LHBs, but with three extra base hits and a wOBA and xwOBA above .400.

Projections Love This Park and Matchup

On a small slate that doesn’t include, but does include two terrible offenses in Cincinnati and no other extremely positive run environments, we still find two teams exceeding five implied runs in the Dodgers (5.36) and Mets (5.21) with the Reds (4.79) and Blue Jays (4.65) also separating themselves from the rest of the board by nearly half a run. Early projections like Cincinnati bats the most though with the top three projecting bats on both sites stemming from the home team lineup in a great park, facing off against Bryse Wilson, who has just two outings all season with more than four strikeouts with a high of six. He doesn’t walk many (5.6%), but with just a 14.6 K% and 91.7 mph EV (45.3% 95+ mph EV). Wilson doesn’t have a single estimator below four and a half, though all are below his 6.11 ERA (61.3 LOB%). LHBs have a .415 wOBA and .393 xwOBA against him this season, which is a big reason why Jake Fraley (142 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP this season) is currently the top projected bat on the board and TJ Friedl (96 wRC+, .192 ISO) is third. Slotting in between them with the second best projection on the board is Jonathan India (101 wRC+, .170 ISO). RHBs have a healthy .332 wOBA and .341 xwOBA against Wilson too.

The Dodgers and Mets both feature a pair of top 10 projected bats too against a pair of rookie pitchers with fewer than five combined major league starts. A marginally rated prospect with a 45+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) and mere 13.7 K-BB% at AAA this season (136 IP), Ryne Nelson struck out seven of the 25 Padres he faced without a walk or run allowed in his major league debut. He allowed just four hits without a barrel, despite just five ground balls, five line drives and a 91.2 mph EV. This will obviously be a much stiffer test for him. Projections call for an ERA in the mid-fours. Mookie Betts (139 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (168 wRC+, .211 ISO) are your top projecting bats.

Javier Assad has struck out just 12 of 67 batters with seven walks and two home runs on three barrels (6.3%). The 25 year-old, who is not a strongly regarded prospect, did have a 20.1 K-BB% over 36.2 AAA innings, but a more marginal 15.4 K-BB% over 74.1 AA innings and projects for a major league ERA around five. In his small sample of work, LHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while RHBs are below .300, which might suggest there will be some type of standard split here. None the less, Pete Alonso (139 wRC+, .244 ISO) is your top projecting Met, but is followed by Francisco Lindor (131 wRC+, .178 ISO).

Embrace the Volatility if Paying Down for Pitching

With both the top projected pitchers and values being some of the most expensive arms tonight, it’s really difficult to find a trustable arm for less than $10K tonight, specifically on FanDuel, where the top five projected values fills out with Mike Minor, Jose Berrios and Alex Cobb third through fifth. Minor has a great matchup against the Pirates (80w RC+, 26.4 K% vs LHP), but has just a 12.9 K% over his last five starts and is down to a 9.3 K-BB% for the season. He doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact (34.6%), but with just a 36.1 GB%, 8.6% of his contact have still been barrels and pitching in Cincinnati hasn’t helped with 20 of 26 barrels leaving the yard (15.3 HR/FB). His 5.70 ERA nearly matches his 5.75 FIP, though remaining estimators range all the way from a 4.75 SIERA to a 6.16 DRA. You’re not trusting him on a single pitcher site, but he does cost less than $7.5K on DraftKings, where you’ll need and SP2.

Berrios remains as volatile as ever with 15 of 23 strikeouts over his last six starts coming in back to back outings and two or fewer in three of them. With just a 20.3 K% (9.5 SwStr%), he’s allowed 50 barrels (10.9%) and 28 home runs (15.5 HR/FB). While most estimators are well below his 5.23 ERA (but still above four), it aligns fairly well with a 5.38 xERA that includes his contact profile. The Rays strike out a lot against RHP (24.1% with a 103 wRC+), but have smashed fastballs and especially curveballs (0.92 wCB/C) since the break, which is bad news for Berrios, considering that comprises more than 85% of his arsenal. He’s somehow only faced the Rays once this season, striking out just three. The volatility likely makes him a more interesting play than Minor, but again, maybe not someone you want to trust on a single pitcher site unless you’re extremely risk embracing.

The strikeouts have been a bit inconsistent, but Cobb’s 3.68 ERA is still above estimators ranging from a 2.91 xFIP to a 3.19 SIERA. It’s odd that you see those particular two bookending a pitcher, though it’s likely due to the 60.9 GB%. Cobb has a 17.2 K-BB%, while allowed just 4.0% Barrels/BBE with a 29.8 Z-O-Swing%. You can probably say that Cobb has been less volatile than Berrios at least, but his matchup is highly volatile. The Braves have a 105 wRC+, 25.3 K% and 16.1 HR/FB vs RHP and Cobb is the most expensive of the three pitchers ($8K DK, $9K FD).

Either Jon Gray ($8.8K) or Braxton Garrett ($7.1K) could be options (only available on DraftKings) in a great park if they weren’t both returning from the IL with a combined 30 batters faced in rehab starts. Both will likely be limited after four week plus absences and the Rangers have been quite good against LHP (117 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 16.7 HR/FB).

Tyler Anderson is the only other name that comes to mind, but he’s not all that cheap ($8K+) and your paying for workload and contact management(84.9 mph EV, 5.2% Barrels/BBE, 29.1% 95+ mph EV) , rather than strikeouts (15.4 K% last 14 starts), which is always a riskier proposition. The changeup (32.1%, -1.7 RV/100, 37 Whiff%) and cutter (22%, -1.1 RV/100, wOBA and xwOBA below .275) have been weapons, but are also two pitches the Diamondbacks have pulverized since the break (1.93 wCH/C, 1.4 wFC/C). The Diamondbacks may have just a 909 wRC+ and 23.3 K% vs LHP, but have some young exciting bats in the lineup these days.

This Top Pitcher's Curveball Should Be a Weapon Tonight

With both sites starting a half hour earlier tonight, the only difference is DraftKings including the second game on the double-header in Miami, making it a seven game slate, though with both pitchers coming directly from the IL with little in the way of rehab starts, they’ll likely both have workload limitations. Considering the remaining 12 pitchers, 25% of them reach $10K tonight on one site or the other with no other pitcher exceeding $9K on both sites. Most expensively on either site, it’s 23 consecutive Quality Starts for Framber Valdez, who’s strikeout rate is up to 23.1% after punching out 11 last time out. He’s the rare pitcher who consistently works deep into games despite marginal control (8.6 BB%). This is because he generates two-thirds (66.7%) of his contact on the ground, allowing just 4.9% Barrels/BBE and erasing a lot of those walks. His 2.64 ERA is below estimators ranging from 3.12 xFIP to a 3.48 DRA, but he plays in front of one of the best defenses in the league (21 Runs Prevented) and his .272 BABIP is actually higher than what the defense allows (.265). While the Tigers have been better against LHP (103 wRC+, 21.9 K%), it comes with no power (7.7 HR/FB) and they are the worst offense in baseball against curveballs since the break (-1.41 wCB/C). Valdez has a good one (28%, -1.2 RV/100, 44.6 Whiff%, .220 wOBA, .212 xwOBA). Valdez is currently the third best projecting pitcher on the board and a middle of the board projected value. For more on tonight’s top two projecting pitchers and values, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Josh Harrison (illness) scratched Sunday

Josh Harrison (illness) scratched Sunday

The start of Guardians-Twins will be delayed Friday due to rain

Game update: The start of Guardians-Twins will be delayed Friday due to rain

Texans release RB Royce Freeman.

Less competition for Dameon Pierce who has already been announced as the team’s starting RB.

Coors May Be More Popular, But This Offense Projects to Smash the Slate More Often

On a 12 game slate where no offense runs away from the board in terms of team run totals, despite the game at Coors, we don’t find a lot of separation in terms of projected ownership, though the three offenses at or above five runs (two Coors teams and Philly) are ahead of the pack with the Diamondbacks the only stack currently reaching a 10% ownership projection and just barely (projections are updated throughout the day and subject to change). Simulations do find the Phillies smashing the board a bit more often than any other offense. They do so in a bit more than 13% of current simulations without any other offense reaching double digits. Facing Patrick Corbin in Philly may be like hitting at Coors. The Value% column is where we often see the most separation, though not always with the best teams and that is somewhat the case again tonight…at least on DraftKings, where the Tigers currently project for 50% more value than any other stack. However, on FanDuel, we find that the Phillies are cheap enough to project for the most value on a board where no offense reaches double digits though. For a more in depth breakdown of tonight’s top rated stacks, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Hitters From Top Offenses Projecting as Top Bats & Values

When considering tonight’s top projected values, we have to get the $300 elephant out of the room first. That would be Wander Franco, as FanDuel had a Kike Hernandez moment (veteran daily fantasy baseball players will remember) and priced him only $300 tonight. He’s far from a lock to even get a hit tonight against a pretty good pitcher (Frankie Montas), but pretty much forces your hand at SS. Otherwise, we have a pretty interesting combination in the same game with Aaron Hicks projected as a top of the board value on either site and Aaron Judge a top overall bat on either site, though we don’t necessarily want to attack Drew Rasmussen much with what has been virtually a one man lineup since the break.

If looking for stackable top projected values, it’s frankly stunning that Sean Bouchard is the only top 10 projected DraftKings value in this game with both Corbin Carroll (192 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Alek Thomas (99 wRC+, .150 ISO) costing less than $3K. The only top 10 projected values on FanDuel from Coors are pair of players who double as top overall bats for exactly $2.8K in Ketel Marte (93 wRC+, .154 ISO) and Ryan McMahon (96 wRC+, .163 ISO).

Speaking of top projecting bats also projecting as top values, let’s hit the top offense on the board at 5.12 implied runs. Rhys Hoskins (175 wRC+, .281 ISO) pulls double FanDuel value for less than $3K, but you can find a pair of Phillies projecting as top values on either site against Patrick Corbin (RHBs .387 wOBA, .396 xwOBA). Matt Vierling (103 wRC+, .135 ISO) is the only top projected value on both for $2.5K or less. He’s joined on DraftKings by Edmundo Sosa (90 wRC+, .192 ISO) in the same price range.

Projections for both sites also agree there’s some value to be had in the Kansas City lineup, though they disagree on where. Joey Wentz made his major league debut in May, striking out just one of the 16 Athletics he saw. In his only other start, three weeks later, he struck out four of 13 Twins. Less than a month from his 25th birthday, Wentz is a marginally regarded prospect (ninth in the Detroit system with a 45 Future Value grade). He’s had some control problems (10.2 BB%), but with a 27.0 K% at AAA. DraftKings projections like the fact that both Brent Rooker (45 wRC+ in very few plate appearances against LHP this year) and Drew Waters (75 wRC+) cost the minimum against the inexperienced rookie. FanDuel projections see MJ Melendez (156 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Hunter Dozier (108 wRC+, .128 ISO) doing some damage here at a cost within $200 of $2.5K.

Projections Really Like These Three Offenses

Despite the marginal pitching and a Coors game on the slate, the Philadelphia Phillies are the only offense exceeding five implied runs and just barely (5.12) on a 24 team board. Both teams at Coors currently sit at exactly five runs. And, amazingly, only two more teams exceed four and a half runs, which may have more to do with weather and parks than pitching. PlateIQ projections, which are fluid and updated throughout the day, certainly agree that Philly is the top offense tonight, featuring three Phillies’ bats among the top four projected bats tonight. Patrick Corbin has struck out 10 of his last 50 with two walks, two home runs and even just two runs allowed over 13 innings…and just a 6.0 SwStr% with a 37.1 GB% and 90.1 mph EV. Odds are, he’s still the same guy that’s posted and 18.7 K% (11.4 K-BB%) with a 90.7 mph EV (45.2% 95+ mph EV) and 10.6% Barrels/BBE. His 6.33 xERA matches his 6.28 ERA, though control neutral estimators (SIERA, xFIP) are two runs lower. The Phillies also hit every pitch that Corbin throws fairly well. If you’ve played daily fantasy on any slate he’s on, you probably know that RHBs have bashed him (.387 wOBA, .396 xwOBA this year), but LHBs have punished him too (.365 wOBA, .320 xwOBA). Bryce Harper (138 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board followed by Kyle Schwarber (95 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Rhys Hoskins (175 wRC+, .281 ISO) with only Aaron Judge in between. Weather is not expected to be a factor tonight, but Philadelphia is a positive run environment and one of the most power friendly parks in the league.

Next, we move onto Coors. In fact, if we stretch out to the top 15 projected bats, the latter half is just about entirely Coors bats. Zach Davies remains a solid contact manager (86.6 mph EV, 32.8% 95+ mph EV), but with just an 18.1 K% (9.8 K-BB%), while he hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last eight starts. A 3.74 ERA is below estimators that don’t drop below four (.252 BABIP). He hasn’t had much of a split this year with batters from either side of the plate between a .284 and .319 xwOBA and xwOBA against him, but projections like the left-handed bats of Ryan McMahon (96 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Charlie Blackmon (84 wRC+, .183 ISO) most in a predominantly right-handed lineup.

German Marquez has gone at least six innings in 11 straight starts (eight Quality Starts), but still has a below average 18.9 K% (10.8 K-BB%) with a concerning contact profile (90.7 mph EV, 48% 95+ mph EV), which pushes contact inclusive estimators closer to his 4.86 ERA and more neutral ones more than half a run below, though only his xFIP is below four (3.95). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .318 and .353 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. The Diamondbacks have some exciting young bats in their lineup. Daulton Varsho (127 wRC+, .253 ISO), Ketel Marte (93 wRC+, .154 ISO), Christian Walker (118 wRC+, .247 ISO), Josh Rojas (117 wRC+, .135 ISO) and Jake McCarthy (113 wRC+, .154 ISO) project best and we’ll probably see Diamondbacks again among the top projected values.

A Pair of Volatile Arms Projecting as Top Values

You’ve got Robbie Ray and Charlie Morton facing each other in a tough spot for both atop the board and then a couple of other expensive pitchers who may not even be usable tonight. It seems like paying down for pitching could be the thing to do tonight. We have two pitchers not living up to expectations this year, both projecting as top of the board values in great matchups in the $8K range tonight. In fact, Lucas Giolito and Lance McCullers project as the top two values on either site in that order. If it’s not the BABIP (.354) it’s the barrels for Giolito (six over his last two starts drives his season rate back up to 8.4% after none in his previous five starts). Not to mention the lower (but still well above average) 25.3 K% this season. Giolito has recently mentioned just starting to feel stronger since being injured on Opening Day, but let’s start seeing signs of it. His 5.21 ERA does exceed all estimators by nine-tenths of a run, but a 3.68 xFIP is the best of the bunch. That’s fine, but does not include the contact profile. This is a great get right spot for him in Oakland tonight. It’s a tremendous park upgrade and the home team has just an 83 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs RHP this season. They also have just a 7.3 HR/FB at home.

McCullers has struck out just 20 of 94 batters with 14 walks and a lower ground ball rate than usual (47.5%). The concerning thing is that these starts were against the A’s, Braves, O’s and Angels, some pretty strikeout prone offenses, while his velocity has dipped over the last two. The 2.08 ERA is a byproduct of a single home run and 88.6 LOB%. All non-FIP estimators exceed four. He actually seems the more volatile of the two because while he’s facing an offense with a 93 wRC+ and 26.8 K% vs RHP, the Angels do have a dangerous top half of the order. Fletcher doesn’t strike out (9.1% vs RHP) and Trout, Ohtani and Ward are all more dangerous than anyone in the Oakland order. Houston is also a negative run environment with the roof closed, but doesn’t limit power nearly as much as Oakland either.

The only other low cost top five projected value on both sites, Daniel Lynch’s velocity was down last time out and he has just a 12.9 K% (8.8 SwStr%) over his last five starts. He’s allowed at least three runs (not all earned) in 11 of his last 16 starts and all season estimators are now within half a run of his 4.82 ERA (11.2 K-BB%). Lynch has shown positive flashes this season, but has yet to have any sustained success at the major league level. The matchup is not even all that great. The Tigers have a 100 wRC+ with a 21.9 K% vs LHP, but with little power (7.2 HR/FB). Really, it’s the price tag (< $6.5K) that’s the only appealing thing here.

A bit more expensively, in fact, just $100 away from costing $9K on both sites, Frankie Montas appears back on track, striking out 19 of his last 68 batters with just a single walk, 48.8 GB% and 85.6 mph EV. Hopefully, this puts to rest concerns about a lingering shoulder issue, while his season numbers are still fairly strong (18.0 K-BB%). All estimators are within half a run of his 3.79 ERA and below four. He’s only completed six innings twice since the start of July though. He is tonight’s fifth best projected arm, but barely a top half of the board value in a high upside spot (Rays 104 wRC+, 24.1 K%) and may be worth the risk in this spot.

Costing more than $1K less on DraftKings, Nick Lodolo tied a season high, striking out nine of 21 Rockies last time out and is up to an impressive 28.3 K% and has induced almost as many popups (10) as barrels allowed (15). Due to a 9.3 BB%, his 3.91 ERA is slightly above estimators ranging from 3.51 SIERA to a 3.84 xERA. This is an exciting young arm with five Quality Starts in his last eight, four with one earned run or less. He projects as tonight’s seventh best arm and just the ninth best DraftKings value, but the Brewers struggle against LHP (87 wRC+, 25.6 K% vs LHP) and may be undervalued here.