DFS Alerts
The Price Tag is Just Too Cheap
Matt Olson rewarded his owners last night with a pair of big extra base hits against the Orioles, and he always has the potential to hit for power against right-handed pitching. Tonight, he draws a favorable matchup against Kevin Gausman, who has a ton of talent but seemingly never puts everything together in a given start. The strikeouts can be a problem for Olson at times, but I’m less worried about that in a matchup against a pitcher who is merely league average in attaining strikeouts. Olson is a great source of value on this slate.
Last Chance to Buy Low
Dozier didn’t get off to the best start this year, but he is slowly turning a corner. He had three hits including a home run on Friday against the White Sox, and he should find some offerings to his liking against Hector Santiago tonight. Dozier has always had strong splits against lefties, to the tune of a .377 wOBA in his career. He is hitting in the middle of a dangerous order against a pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls. Buy low while you still can.
The Clear-Cut Top Hitting Selection
Mr. Trout’s absurd video-game like numbers continue in 2018. Here are his splits against left-handed pitching: .417 OBP, 1.206 OPS, .526 ISO, .490 wOBA, and 215 wRC+ — and that’s all with the bad luck of a .200 BABIP baked in. Obviously, we are dealing with a small sample size still, but this guy can crush mediocre left-handed pitching, and that’s what he gets tonight. I love the pivot to a guy like Acuna in GPPs, but in terms of raw points, Trout is clearly the pick.
Board The Bandwagon!
There are two bandwagons that still have plenty of room for additional occupants: 1) The Charlie Morton is good bandwagon and 2) This Diamondbacks offense isn’t all that good bandwagon. Morton excelled in 2017 and has picked up where he left off to start the new year. His strikeout rate is up to a whopping 31% this year, and he is allowing even less hard contact than he did a year ago. He is generating soft contact 28% of the time and allowing hard contact just 24% of the time this season, and that’s a remarkable ratio. Morton also draws a matchup against a free-swinging Diamondbacks team that ranks near the top of the league in strikeout rate and got absolutely mowed down by Gerrit Cole on Friday. Morton is the top cash game pitching selection on the board.
Mike Leake has a board high 93.3 mph aEV and .463 xwOBA
The Los Angeles Angels have just a middling 4.44 implied run line in Seattle tonight, but Mike Leake has been torched this season for a 93.3 mph aEV, 13.2% Barrels/BBE and 55.3% 95+ mph EV, resulting in a .463 xwOBA that’s worst on the board. While owning traditional splits both since last season and for his career, with more trouble coming from LHBs (.374 xwOBA since 2017), it’s RHBs who have a .409 xwOBA and four of his six HRs surrendered this season, more due to a 47.9 Hard% that’s 10 points higher than LHBs than anything else. That could be bad news against a predominantly right-handed LAA lineup with Mike Trout (189 wRC+, .352 ISO), Justin Upton (115 wRC+, .227 ISO) and even Andrelton Simmons (112 wRC+, .157 ISO) hitting same-handed pitching fairly well since last season, though with obvious different levels of success. The Angels’ lineup has not yet been confirmed, but is one players should have their eye on tonight against a pitcher with a 13.6 career HR/FB, who has been pummeled this year.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons, Mike Leake
One interesting and difficult trouble spot in Kevin's Friday night forecast
There is one interesting and troublesome spot in Kevin’s Friday night forecast. Players can read the full update on the Weather page, but premium subscribers are going to want to tune in to Crunch Time at 6:30 ET and listen to Kevin sort it out.
Premium tools like conditional formatting in PlateIQ can cut down on research time and help find hidden values
Today is the first full 15 game slate of the season a little more than a month into the year. Two of the newest RotoGrinders premium tools can he help players cut down on time (PlateIQ conditional formatting) and find potentially hidden value (Stolen Base Threat Ratings) with 30 pitchers and over 200 batters to pour through. An additional benefit is Umpire Ratings available to both premium and BAT subscribers built right into LineupHQ, where players can also find Ownership Projections, which suggest that Gerrit Cole’s high price tag may keep him from being tonight’s most popular pitcher.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ A New Core Pitcher
I’ve changed my 2nd Core SP for the 2nd time today, first from Jose Berrios down to Walker Buehler due to the six lefties in the White Sox lineup. Now we’ve got Kevin Roth calling for lots of rain and an Orange designation for Buehler. I don’t want that risky of a pitcher as a core play, so I’m going up to Rick Porcello who has been nearly unhittable this season. He is piling up soft contact with elite control and above average strikeouts. He is facing a Texas team that has one of the highest strikeout rates in the league giving him plenty of upside along with his high floor skill set.
Carson Fulmer has a 4.4 K-BB%, 5.7 SwStr% and 14.3% Barrels/BBE leading to a .452 xwOBA
The Minnesota Twins are one of a handful of offenses with an implied run line right around five tonight. Carson Fulmer has a horrendous 4.4 K-BB% and a 5.7 SwStr% that does not even support his meager 15.8 K% and absolutely no batted ball support for his .269 BABIP. His 14.3% Barrels/BBE is worst on the board generating a .452 xwOBA that’s third worst tonight. Ninety percent of his swings at pitches in the strike zone have led to contact. His xwOBA against batters from either side is above .350 since last season with just a 31% GB rate either way. While the bottom of the lineup is lacking, each of the first six for the Twins today have a wRC+ above 100 and only Joe Mauer (.125) is below a .195 ISO against RHP since 2017. All four non-Mauer LHBs are above a 115 wRC+ and .210 ISO. Eddie Rosario (133 wRC+, .267 ISO) has a 198 wRC+ over the last week and remains criminally under-priced, less than $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Joe Mauer Jose Quintana has fewer strikeouts (19.8%) and a .410 xwOBA with sky rocketing exit velocities
The St Louis Cardinals are forecast for a modest 4.06 implied runs against Jose Quintana, whose reputation is far ahead of results this season. He got a lot of looking Ks last season, but his 19.8 K% is more in line with his 8.3 SwStr% in 2018. Just as importantly, or maybe even more so, his exit velocity has sky rocketed (91.7 mph aEV, 52.3% 95+ mph EV), leading to a .410 xwOBA. This a St Louis lineup featuring five hitters with an ISO above .250 against LHP since last season: Jose Martinez (.392), Paul DeJong (.293), Jedd Gyorko (.278), Yadier Molina (.271), and Tommy Pham (167 wRC+, .254 ISO). While DeJong has a .268 wOBA that’s 90 points below his actual mark against southpaws (and perhaps why he’s batting eighth), Molina has a .466 xwOBA that’s 137 points above his actual mark. This lineup can do some damage.
Other tagged players: Paul DeJong, Jedd Gyorko, Yadier Molina, Tommy Pham Bartolo Colon has a .297 xwOBA and career high 51.6 GB%, but the Red Sox still have a 5.11 implied run line
While Bartolo Colon has ERA estimators in the mid-threes and a .297 xwOBA (4.4% Barrels/BBE), possibly due to a career high 51.6 GB%, a matchup with the Red Sox in Texas seems absolutely frightening for a pitcher who still has just a 17.8 K% and 43 Hard%. Vegas has lofty expectations from this Boston lineup as well (5.11 implied run line). Since last season, batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA right around .350 with actual wOBAs a bit higher. Mookie Betts (115 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and J.D. Martinez (150 wRC+, .332 ISO) are the obvious plays. Andrew Benintendi (113 wRC+, .177 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (101 wRC+, .152 ISO), Hanley Ramirez (104 wRC+, .178 ISO), and Rafael Devers (88 wRC+, .185 ISO) may get a small bump in a park that plays as a similar run environment to Fenway, but may be a bit more power friendly overall.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts Royals have a surprisingly high 4.7 implied run line against Francisco Liriano (.401 xwOBA)
The Kansas City Royals have a surprisingly high 4.7 implied run line against Francisco Liriano, who has remained dominant against LHBs since last season (.253 wOBA, .268 xwOBA, 18.2 Hard%), but is missing fewer bats overall this year and has allowed RHBs a .366 wOBA (.378 xwOBA) since 2017. His overall work this season has led to a .401 xwOBA and 5.11 SIERA well above his 3.38 ERA. The two above average bats for the Royals are right at the top: Whit Merrifield (127 wRC+, .223 ISO vs LHP since 2017) and Jorge Soler (155 wRC+, .314 ISO). Both have xwOBAs within 10 points of their actual marks against lefties too. Sal Perez (87 wRC+, .227 ISO) has shown some power and has a .368 xwOBA that’s 64 points higher than his actual mark.
Other tagged players: Jorge Soler, Francisco Liriano, Salvador Perez Cleveland has four batters above a 120 wRC+ and .210 ISO vs LHP since last season
C.C. Sabathia has been good enough the past couple of seasons that he’s not a pitcher players immediately look to pick on, but he’s in a tough spot against a surging Cleveland offense (MLB high 152 wRC+ last seven days) and is keeping his ERA down with an unsustainable .207 BABIP this season. Meanwhile, the Tribe has four batters, one fairly cheap, who do damage against LHP and get a favorable park upgrade for right-handed power: Francisco Lindor (136 wRC+, .216 ISO vs LHP since 2017), Jose Ramirez (141 wRC+, .240 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (117 wRC+, .214 ISO) and fairly cheaply, Yan Gomes (121 wRC+, .248 ISO). All four are above a 170 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, CC Sabathia, Yan Gomes, Francisco Lindor Josh Donaldson has a 285 wRC+ since returning from the DL, faces the Tampa Bay bullpen tonight
Josh Donaldson (142 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP since 2017) has returned to the Toronto lineup showing no ill effects from his DL stint with a 285 wRC+ over the last week. Andrew Kittredge is a reliever who probably is not long for this game. Aside from Curtis Granderson (122 wRC+, .249 ISO) in the leadoff spot, both Yangervis Solarte (116 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (157 wRC+, .350 ISO) should play well against the bullpen as well.
Other tagged players: Andrew Kittredge, Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Teoscar Hernandez Matchup Based Free Square
I’m thrilled to see Neil Walker in the Yankees lineup tonight against Josh Tomlin. At a bargain basement salary on all sites, this is the easiest way to get exposure to the elite Yankees offense tonight, and it’s more than just a punt for the sake of punting. Walker still has above average skills across the board. Since the start of 2017 against right-handed pitching, he has a 34.5% hard hit rate with 17.9% strikeouts. He’s no superstar, but he has the edge in this matchup against Tomlin.