DFS Alerts
J.A. Happ is how much?!?!
Something I did not expect to see in 2018, J.A. Happ costing $11700 on DK. Don’t fret, Happ has had a great start to the season going 4-0 in his last 5 starts through April. In his last 5, he has averaged 6.2 innings pitched and has exceeded his expected value in every game so far. Happ has been a strikeout machine this season, currently 11th in the league in K’s and 4th in the league in K/9 at 12.5. Happ leads the big Friday pitching slate with a 7.3 K prediction. When Happ has been this expensive in the past, he has exceeded value in both starts.
As reported by: ESPN
Welington Castillo scratched Thursday; Omar Narvaez replaces
Castillo has been scratched from the Chicago White Sox original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup with the Minnesota Twins due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Omar Narvaez, who will handle the catching duties and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which will bump Nicky Delmonico up to fourth and Daniel Palka up to sixth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this White Sox order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Jake Odorizzi this evening.
As reported by: Daryl Van Schouwen via Twitter
Jaime Barria has been held below 80 pitches in each of his first two major league starts
Jaime Barria was the seventh graded prospect in the Angels’ system via Fangraphs this pre-season with a 45 Future Value with the upside of a number four starter despite reaching the majors at the age of 21. Command seems to be his strength. Despite walking and striking out four each of his first 32 major league batters, his 7.8 BB% in 12.1 AAA innings this year is 50% higher than any previous rate at any previous stop in the organization. They’ve held him below 80 pitches in each of his two starts (which only got him through two innings last time somehow). Any attraction here would be because he’s minimally priced in a high upside spot (tonight’s Baltimore lineup has a 24.3 combined K% since last season against RHP), though a high priced stack along with Sean Manaea might be the only case that’s of use. While there are only three bats in the Baltimore lineup (Jace Peterson, Mark Trumbo, Anthony Santandar) below a 95 wRC+ and/or a .190 ISO vs RHP since last year, Manny Machado (114 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Trey Mancini (117 wRC+, .202 ISO) are the coveted bats here. Pedro Alvarez (114 wRC+, .202 ISO) has a 283 wRC+ (58.3 Hard%) over the last week and could be a high upside salary saver in GPPs. Chance Sisco (149 wRC+, .233 ISO) has an xwOBA 64 points below his actual one against RHP.
As reported by: Fangraphs Los Angeles Angels Top Prospects Other tagged players: Trey Mancini, Pedro Alvarez, Chance Sisco, Anthony Santander, Mark Trumbo, Jace Peterson, Jaime Barria
Chris Tillman has a .479 xwOBA (91.4 mph aEV) even after one-hitting Detroit
The Tigers made Chris Tillman look like a Cy Young candidate for seven one hit innings and optimistically, one can see 10 strikeouts vs just three walks over his last two starts, but he allowed three HRs to Cleveland two starts back and has failed to hold the opposition below four runs in four of his five starts. He has a total of just 13 strikeouts this year (5.8 SwStr%) with a .479 xwOBA (91.4 mph aEV, 11.4% Barrels/BBE, 51.4% 95+ mph EV). The Angels have a 5.16 implied run line that’s second on the board in a negative run environment. This calls for heavy exposure to the stars of a stars and scrubs lineup, though players must realize they certainly won’t be the only ones on Los Angeles bats tonight. Batters from either side are above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against Tillman since last season. Even Ian Kinsler (83 wRC+, .147 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Albert Pujols (86 wRC+, .172 ISO) at reasonable costs can be sprinkled in with Mike Trout (189 wRC+, .351 ISO), Justin Upton (113 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (211 wRC+, .410 ISO). Andrelton Simmons (110 wRC+, .155 ISO) and Luis Valbuena (96 wRC+, .228 ISO) are viable as well.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Ian Kinsler, Albert Pujols, Luis Valbuena, Andrelton Simmons, Chris Tillman Concern in one spot in Kevin's Thursday forecast update
There’s concern in one spot in Kevin’s Thursday forecast update. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers will want to tune into Crunch Time at 7:30 ET for more with 25% of a four game slate at risk.
Wade Leblanc will start in what will likely be a bullpen game for the Mariners against the A's
Wade Leblanc is still in the league, apparently and will not quit until he pitches for every organization. He’s thrown 71.2 major league innings since the start of last season, all in relief, though all of his efforts this season have been multi-inning with a high of 71 pitches just over a week ago. Four to five innings with maybe 80 pitches should be his max. As to the quality of the work, he holds a reverse platoon split both since last season (LHBs .354 wOBA and xwOBA match) and for his career (.375 wOBA), though his work against RHBs is just average (.322 wOBA career, .336 xwOBA since 2017) at best. The A’s will line up with eight right-handed batters and have just a 4.06 implied run line that’s third lowest on the board in a negative run environment. They’re expected to see a lot of the Seattle bullpen tonight, so perhaps exposure should be tilted to those who do well against both right and left-handed pitching, like Khris Davis (105 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP since 2017), Matt Chapman (118 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Jed Lowrie (112 wRC+, .150 ISO), though Davis is sitting on a -63 wRC+ and 47.4 K% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Wade LeBlanc Sean Manaea has gone at least seven innings in all but one start, has the highest strikeout rate (23.6%) on the board
Sean Manaea is the top pitcher on the board. He’s the highest priced, has the highest strikeout rate (at just 23.6%) and the lowest xwOBA (.285). His ERA still has a ton of regression ahead (.148 BABIP, 98.2 LOB%), but suddenly he’s an iron man, going at least seven innings in five of six starts, once against Seattle, though it tied his lowest strikeout total for the season (four). The only reason he may not be the highest owned arm tonight is a price tag least $1.5K above everyone else, but he’ll be extremely popular. He’s had some issues with right-handed batters in the past (.347 wOBA last year), but even that’s not been an issue this season (.183 wOBA, 15.9 K-BB%), though they still have a hard hit rate above 40%. If playing multiple lineups, a right-handed hedge stack against him may win a GPP if it goes off and the Mariners do have some potency with all of their right-handed bats above a 115 wRC+ against LHP and just Jean Segura and Guillermo Heredia below a .200 ISO. But for cash games Manaea’s certainly the man tonight.
Other tagged players: Sean Manaea, Guillermo Heredia Twins bring a high powered, low strikeout lineup to Chicago against Reynaldo Lopez
The Twins are in the middle of the board with a 4.57 implied run line in Chicago against Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez has control issues (11.8 BB%) and has struck out just four over his last two starts after whiffing 10 A’s. However, he had a 10.4 SwStr% last time out and threw 37.5% sliders and curves, his highest rate of breaking ball usage for any start. His 1.78 ERA is built on a .232 BABIP, 86.2 LOB% and three unearned runs (33% of his total), but his 9.9 SwStr% is in the upper half of the board. The biggest problem is that this Minnesota offense has some pop without a lot of strikeouts tonight. PlateIQ places the confirmed lineup at a .341 wOBA, .199 ISO and just 20.3 K% since last season and a lot of that is weighted by the ninth place hitter at a 30.3 K%. In fact, only one of the first eight hitters is above a 21 K% vs RHP since last season. This in addition to weather concerns may make Lopez a tough roster tonight, even in a secondary spot. Lopez has had a significant split issue since last season. Lefties have a .377 xwOBA, while he’s been essentially league average (.315 xwOBA) against right-handers. Brian Dozier (105 wRC+, .196 ISO) is just one of two right-handed bats and has a -15 wRC+ and 31 K% over the last week. Dangerous left-handed bats include nearly everyone, two through six: Joe Mauer (123 wRC+, .404 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), Max Kepler (119 wRC+, .215 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (109 wRC+, .229 ISO), Eddie Rosario (133 wRC+, .267 ISO) and Logan Morrison (124 wRC+, .269 ISO). Rosario (217 wRC+) and Morrison (142 wRC+) both have a 50% hard hit rate over the last week.
Other tagged players: Logan Morrison, Joe Mauer, Eduardo Escobar, Max Kepler, Brian Dozier, Reynaldo Lopez Boston has the second highest implied run line (5.21) in Texas, but have struggled against southpaws (67 wRC+, 18.6 K-BB%)
The Red Sox have the second highest Vegas run line on the board tonight (5.21) in Texas against Mike Minor, but they’ve really struggled against LHP this year (67 wRC+, 18.6 K-BB%, 9.4 Hard-Soft%) and Minor hasn’t been that bad, especially in Texas, where he’s allowed just four runs in 15 innings with 18 strikeouts. He has a 12.3 SwStr% underlying a 21.4 K%, which suggests some additional upside, while his 2.83 DRA is a run and a half below his 4.33 ERA. One of the negatives we do see is a dangerous 90.2 mph aEV. Minor has dominated lefties (.204 wOBA since 2017), while exactly 100 points higher against right-handers (still better than league average), though most of that work came out of the Kansas City bullpen last year. Still, a look at the Boston lineup, after excluding Rafael Devers for being left-handed and having an xwOBA 81 points lower than his actual against southpaws, the only two batters who have been proficient against lefties since 2017 are the ones players expect: J.D. Martinez (217 wRC+, .481 xwOBA, .453 ISO, 54.9 Hard%) and Mookie Betts (163 wRC+, .285 ISO). Both have a wRC+ above 250 and hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. Hanley Ramirez has a .183 ISO against lefties, but just a 77 wRC+. The one other person to look out for is Xander Bogaerts (107 wRC+, .113 ISO), who is well below his career GB/FB ratio this year (1.43 vs 1.12). At a cost below $6K, Minor can be a sneaky SP2 piece on DraftKings, if paying up for Manaea.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Mike Minor, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez Struggling David Price in a difficult park, but in a high upside spot in Texas
Texas is a difficult park, easily the most positive run environment on the four game slate, but this is a lineup that a good left-handed pitcher should be able to handle, as they make little effort to gain a platoon edge. In fact, PlateIQ notes that this particular Ranger lineup has a .336 wOBA, .181 ISO and 25.9 K% vs LHP since last season. Not much of a concern when considering the park boost they often get and probably why they have just the fifth highest implied run line tonight at 4.29 against David Price, who has struggled. After starting the season with 14 shutout innings in his first two starts, he’s allowed at least four runs in and gone fewer than six innings in three of his last four. He has just a 10.2 K-BB% with a league average strikeout rate and double digit walk rate. The 7.8 SwStr% is even more concerning, though it’s been below that in just one start, his last (2.4%). Damage was done by the Yankees, A’s and Rays, three offenses that have been playing well this year. However, the fact that he dominates lefties (.239 wOBA, 19.4 Hard%, 54.2 GB%) gives him some upside in the top half of this lineup and makes it a bit difficult to entirely eliminate him on a site where two pitchers are necessary, though his cost on FanDuel is $1.9K cheaper. Robinson Chirinos (153 wRC+, .267 ISO, 43.1 Hard% vs LHP since 2017) is really the most dangerous threat from the right side, especially since Price isn’t really a guy that can be run on. Chirinos also has a 177 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week. Joey Gallo (112 wRC+, .248 ISO, 44.3 Hard%, 52.2 FB%) is still an interesting play if ownership rates (available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page) look to be down because he hits the ball in the air hard so often.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Robinson Chirinos, Joey Gallo The White Sox have a few RHBs who can do some damage against fly ball prone Jake Odorizzi's reverse splits
There are just three games on the evening slate and if that weren’t bad enough, the between the White Sox and Twins in Minnesota with the only two teams between a 4.3 and 5.1 implied run line, has some weather concerns. Whether it plays or not, Yoan Moncada is sitting this one out, leaving the White Sox with one less threat against Jake Odorizzi, who has just an 8.0 K-BB% and estimators well above a 3.94 ERA that’s a product of an 87.7 LOB%, though Statcast likes the contact well enough to grace him with a league average .327 xwOBA. Perhaps this is an ideal spot to rest Moncada, as Odorizzi is an extreme fly ball pitcher with reverse splits. Right-handed batters have a .327 wOBA, .343 xwOBA and 40.4 Hard% against him since last season. The White Sox do have a trio of righties who can do some damage. Jose Abreu (128 wRC+, .238 ISO, 40 Hard% vs RHP since 2017), Welington Castillo (103 wRC+, .203 ISO, 38 Hard%) and Matt Davidson (92 wRC+, .249 ISO, 41.3 Hard%) all have a .240 or higher ISO at home since last season too. Castillo has changed teams, but gone from one power friendly park to another. Davidson has a 283 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. Odorizzi likes to pitch up in the zone, where all three can do some damage according to PlateIQ (now with conditional formatting for premium subscribers).
Other tagged players: Welington Castillo, Matt Davidson, Jake Odorizzi Load up on this Offense
The Angels are playing at home, so they don’t have the best hitter’s park on the schedule. With that said, they do have one of the best matchups. Chris Tillman has a low strikeout rate, a high hard contact rate, and a high fly-ball rate. Ian Kinsler has one of the highest fly-ball rates in baseball, so I like his chances for an extra-base hit or two in this one.
Elite Play vs. Southpaws
Mike Minor has been pretty decent as a starter this season, but he’s still a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. J.D. Martinez is one of the best in baseball against southpaws, posting a .473 xwOBA with a .439 ISO over the last two seasons. The fact that the game is being played in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre is just icing on the cake.
Massive Upside at Home
Mike Trout is the best hitter in baseball and that’s on display most nights. He homered again last night and now draws an elite matchup against Chris Tillman. In addition to a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and a high fly-ball rate, Tillman has struggled against both left and right-handed hitters. Without an elite arm to pay up for tonight, we can basically take our pick when it comes to bats. Trout should be at the top of that list.
Feels Gross, but Pitching is Thin Tonight
Odorizzi hasn’t been great in his first six starts with the Twins, posting a 5.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 20%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, especially to right-handed hitters. While we can’t play him confidence, he’s certainly an intriguing option in this four game slate. The White Sox have struggled against right-handed pitching and have a number of high-strikeout bats in their lineup.