DFS Alerts
Ugly Slate for Pitching
Tonight’s four-game slate isn’t pretty. We don’t have a single pitcher that we can play with confidence. In fact, Price might end up being our best option, even though he’s had bad form coming into tonight’s game. In his six starts this season, he has a 4.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 10%. The good news is that the Rangers’ projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 28% against left-handed pitching. He may give up a few runs, but hopefully the strikeouts will make up for it.
Below average offenses in Kansas City both have an implied run line above 4.5 runs against poor pitching.
Detroit @ Kansas City is the second of two games where both teams have an implied run line above 4.5 this afternoon, which really speaks to the lack of quality pitching in this game, considering the offenses. The Tigers have made a lot of pitchers look great over the last week. They’re going to have to continue to work to do the same against Eric Skoglund (7.6 SwStr%, 6.23 ERA, 9.74 DRA). His .410 xwOBA, 92.4 mph aEV and 52% 95+ mph EV are all second worst on the board. While most of the pitchers the Tigers have improved have been right-handed, they do have some bats who can punish LHP. The lineup has not yet been confirmed, but among projected players, Miguel Cabrera (152 wRC+, .167 ISO, 47.1 Hard%), Nick Castellanos (152 wRC+, .293 ISO) and James McCann (162 wRC+, .283 ISO) have all excelled against southpaws since last season. Mike Fiers has more upside in his 15.2 K% with a 10.2 SwStr%, but his 3.91 ERA is more than half a run below all his estimators because three of his 13 runs have been unearned. His 11.3% Barrels/BBE is third highest today, leading to a .377 xwOBA. Fiers has both a wOBA and xwOBA between .340 and .355 against batters from either side of the plate since last season. The middle of the Kansas City order presents three batters who hit RHP well over that span: Mike Moustakas (120 wRC+, .267 ISO), Salvador Perez (110 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Lucas Duda (120 wRC+, .267 ISO).
Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, James McCann, Eric Skoglund, Mike Fiers, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Lucas Duda
Start of Thursday's TOR-CLE game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians on Thursday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time for the first game of the traditional doubleheader, and the Indians have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The late start is better news for the prospects of the starting pitchers like Carlos Carrasco not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the delay could be lengthy and there’s still an outside possibility that the game is postponed.
As reported by: Nick Camino via Twitter
Masahiro Tanaka (14.3%) and Lance McCullers Jr. (14.1%) nearly share elite SwStr rates with a five point gap in K%
The Yankees @ Astros pits two high power offenses against two high upside pitchers in what’s been a series mostly won by strong pitching in an extremely negative run environment so far. Masahiro Tanaka (14.3%) and Lance McCullers Jr. (14.1%) nearly share a SwStr rate, though both get there in different ways and the latter has a strikeout rate five points higher (31.7% to 26.1%). Both pitchers are right around $9K on either site except for Tanaka’s $7.9K tag on DraftKings. Both teams are hovering around four implied runs. Tanaka’s lack of a platoon split may actually hurt him here (he’s essentially a bit better than league average against batters from either side). If the splitter doesn’t drop, it flies. Each of the first eight Houston bats are above a 100 wRC+ and .160 ISO vs RHP since 2017. George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez each exceed a 125 wRC+ and .180 ISO. Gonzalez has an xwOBA 44 points below his actual wOBA against RHP though. McCullers throws tons of curveballs, which gives him a slight reverse split by xwOBA (18 points), but larger by actual wOBA (60 points) since last season. His issues can be more about finding the plate and going deep in games than home runs though and even those problems haven’t cropped up very often recently. Despite having more “trouble” with same-handed hitters, he’s kept them on the ground 64% of the time when they’ve made contact since last season. He’s probably not a pitcher players should consider attacking with high priced Yankee bats.
Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez Julio Teheran shut out the Mets for seven innings previous to leaving his last start with an injury
Both teams in the Braves @ Mets affair are hovering around the 4.5 implied run mark. Jason Vargas was torched for two homers and nine runs (23 BF) in San Diego in his first start for the Mets. While LHBs have a wOBA 37 points higher than RHBs since last season, xwOBA has both sides between .335 and .340. The soft-tosser is not the kind of pitcher you can’t use a quality LHB like Freddie Freeman (159 wRC+, .273 ISO vs LHP since 2017) against at all. Players can hope the same-handed matchup may lower his ownership at a high cost. Kurt Suzuki (116 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Ozzie Albies (102 wRC+, .191 ISO) are strong plays as well with the Catcher costing much less than his top of the order teammates. Ronald Acuna has a 213 wRC+ (36.8 Hard%) in his first week of major league action. Julio Teheran shut out the Mets for seven innings (as he often seems to do) before leaving his last start against the Phillies early with a back injury. Players who are willing to gamble on his health can see upside in his 22.8 K% (11.7 SwStr%) at a cost below $7K. He had allowed just three runs over 19 innings (22 Ks) in three starts leading up to the injury. Teheran struggles significantly with LHBs though (.341 wOBA, .364 xwOBA since 2017). The struggling Michael Conforto (152 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since 2017) drops to fifth in the order today. Jay Bruce (127 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Asdrubal Cabrera (108 wRC+, .181 ISO) are the other strong left-handed bats against RHP. Yoenis Cespedes (135 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP) has a 276 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Jason Vargas, Kurt Suzuki, Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera Edwin Encarnacion (117 wRC, .216 ISO) looks to build on three homer day against another southpaw
The Cleveland Indians are in a virtual tie for the top Vegas run line at 4.9. They’ll face Jaime Garcia, who has a career high 24.4 K% this season, but his 8.7 SwStr% is a career low for any season with more than 16 IP. He still has an ERA and FIP well above five because his aEV (92.8 mph), Barrels/BBE (13.8%) and 95+ mph EV (53.4%) are all highest on the board (.373 xwOBA). Cleveland has four batters in the lineup who punish southpaws, while all others have been below average. Right-handed batters have a .338 wOBA and 346 xwOBA against Garcia since last season. The four are Francisco Lindor (133 wRC+, .208 ISO since last season), Jose Ramirez (143 wRC+, .242 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (117 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Yan Gomes (121 wRC+, .250 ISO). Gomes and Lindor have a wRC+ around the 200 mark over the last week, while Ramirez and Encarnacion, who homered three times yesterday, have hard hit rates above 40% over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes, Francisco Lindor, Jaime Garcia Pay Up For Super Stardom
I see this as a night to spend up for bats. I would prefer to pay down at pitcher and hope for the best to be able to get Mookie Betts along with Mike Trout. Betts is just at another level right now with a 49% hard hit rate and just 11.5% strikeouts this season leading to a .458 ISO with 11 home runs, and 32 runs scored in just 26 games. Texas’ Mike Minor allows fly balls and hard hits to right-handed batters, and this is a ‘don’t overthink it’ spot.
Pirates @ Nationals feature two soft contact generators, but one of just two games with both teams above 4.5 implied runs
The Pirates @ Nationals is one of two games on the afternoon slate with both teams above a 4.5 implied run line (no team is above five). The Bucs are resting a couple of their middle of the order bats (Bell, Cervelli) against a pitcher (Jeremy Hellickson), who rarely misses bats anymore. He has generated some of the weakest contact on the board through three starts though (84.7 mph aEV, 19.4% 95+ mph EV), but did allow 35 home runs last year and two so far this season in 15.1 innings. His xwOBA is above .340 against batters from either side. The wind is forecasted to be blowing out at around 15 mph to center, a slight boost for hitters. The top Pirate bats against RHP are Corey Dickerson (117 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Colin Moran (129 wRC+, .161 ISO) since last season, though both bat down in the order. No other Pittsburgh bat has both a 100+ wRC+ and .130+ ISO vs RHP. Gregory Polanco (92 wRC+, .177 ISO) comes closest. Starling Marte (120 wRC+, .129 ISO) is an expensive stolen base threat. The Nationals will face Trevor Williams and own the top implied run line on the board (4.95). He’s gone exactly six innings in all but one start, but is missing even fewer bats than Hellickson this year and has just a 4.3 K-BB%. Like last year though, he too, generates a lot of weak contact (85.7 mph aEV), which has led to a .313 xwOBA this season. He’s allowed just 15 HRs in 185 innings since last season. Oddly, it’s LHBs who have just a 22.9 Hard% against him since last season with RHBs more than 10 points higher. That’s not going to pull the red hot Bryce Harper (181 wRC+, .350 ISO vs RHP since 2017) or Matt Adams (142 wRC+, .282 ISO) off your board. Both have hit the ball hard on 46% of contact over the last week, the latter with a 362 wRC+. From the right side, all are above a .160 ISO against RHP with Michael A. Taylor (92 wRC+) the only one below a 117 wRC+. Ryan Zimmerman (114 wRC+, .237 ISO) is the only one above a .200 ISO.
Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Ryan Zimmerman, Michael A. Taylor, Trevor Williams, Jeremy Hellickson, Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, Colin Moran, Gregory Polanco It's All Bad, Just Punt It
Especially if the Twins-White Sox game gets rained out, this slate is just so bad for the pitching, I would prefer to just pay all the way down to minimum salary and hope for the best. There is plenty to like with Barria, as a high fly ball pitcher with good control in a nice ballpark. Baltimore has enough power to put him at risk, but this kid put up incredible infield fly ball numbers in the minors, and seems like the kind of pitcher that can get a lot of easy outs. It may just not take a lot of points from your pitcher to compete tonight. I’d rather spend on the bats.
Patrick Corbin and Carlos Carrasco are the highest priced pitchers on the afternoon board
A six game afternoon slate (five on FanDuel) contains two $12K pitchers on DraftKings, but not a single $10K arm on FanDuel, which omits the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Seeing Patrick Corbin shoot up to $12.5K is probably a shock if you’ve missed the first month of the season, but he’s actually coming off his season low for strikeouts with “just” seven in his last start. He has a 36.6 K% and 16.6 SwStr% that nobody can come close to today. To this, he adds a 54.1 GB%, 80 Z-Contact%, 23.6 Z-O-Swing%, .223 wOBA and 86 mph aEV. The Dodgers have an 87 wRC+ vs LHP. On FanDuel, Carlos Carrasco is the top guy. He’s coming off his worst start of the season, lasting just three innings against the Mariners. He’s now struck out exactly four in three of his six starts, though his 12.8 SwStr% is exactly where it needs to be and fairly consistent. His .264 xwOBA is third best on the board along with an 86.4 mph aEV and 3.9% Barrels/BBE. He’s missing bats and collecting a lot of weak contact. The matchup is not ideal with the Blue Jays (102 wRC+, 10.9 BB%, 16.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but they also have a 23.5 K% vs righties this year. Players will need to beware potential weather conditions that may delay this game too.
Other tagged players: Carlos Carrasco Anyone In This Matchup At This Price
As bad as Chris Tillman has been against righties, he has been considerably worse against lefties. This is the second season in a row he has more walks than strikeouts to lefties, and when he does throw a strike, its getting hit hard 54% of the time. It’s been an awful start for Kole Calhoun, and I do have concern about his strikeout rate, but not against Tillman. And when he’s made contact, it’s plain old bad luck with a .230 BABIP and 5.3% HR.FB rate despite a 39% hard hit rate. I’m completely on board in all formats at this salary.
The Best Against The Worst
One good start does not get Tillman off the must-attack list. He has a long history of reverse splits power, and so far this season has just an 11.7% K rate against right-handed batters. Mike Trout is the best hitter in the league and with his .343 ISO and .440 wOBA against right-handed pitching, it hardly matters who he’s facing, but the fact that he’s facing Tillman just makes this all the more elite of a play.
We Have To Play Two Somebodys
As is the case with Manaea, I really don’t love Odorizzi tonight. But on DK/FRDFT, we need to come up with two pitchers to use. In Odorizzi’s favor is a high strikeout White Sox team. Working against him is the ballpark and the power risk from his opponent. The hope here is that the home runs they hit come without runners on base and their swings and misses offest that risk. The one thing that looks promising for Odorizzi is a strikeout rate up to 23% against righties this season. It doesn’t take much more than average to get past these White Sox.
You Have To Play Somebody
Let me say right off the bat that I do not love Manaea tonight. He is clearly overpriced on DK/FDRFT and he is due for a lot of regression. However, this is just an awful slate for pitching, and we have to use somebody. While things are not going to stay this rosy for Manaea, I am very encouraged by his low walks, and his strikeouts have seen a meaningful boost, accompanied by higher swinging strikes in his last couple starts. He is not nearly as good as his ERA looks, and I don’t like the points per dollar projection, but again, we’ve got to play somebody.
Cheap Option Hitting Second
We don’t have a ton of value on this slate, but I do like the Oakland righties against LeBlanc. He was really good against righties last season but has struggled a lot more this season. He’s been working out of the bullpen and hasn’t started a game since August of 2016. Pinder continues to be cheap and should continue to hit second for Oakland. He has a .469 xwOBA against lefties since the start of 2017, and a .200 ISO with a 41% hard hit rate. With limited value options on this slate, Pinder sets up as a nice value option tonight.
