DFS Alerts

El Coffee

Polanco is my favorite pt/$ OF option on DraftKings and he makes for an ok play on FanDuel as well. El Coffee is only $3,500 on DK and gets a favorable matchup against Cardinals young righty Jack Flaherty. Flaherty projects to be a middle of the rotation starter and isn’t a guy we’re looking to completely attack but Polanco holds the platoon and should bat toward the top of the order.

No Platoon? It's Ok.

NOTE: Dylan Covey will start Game 2 for the White Sox.

While Whit wont’ have the platoon advantage we were hoping for in Game 2, Covey is a downgrade from Hector Santiago who was the prior projected starter. Season long projections peg Covey around a mid 5’s ERA and he’s simply not a very talented pitcher who has had a ton of issues with control. Whit’s price and multi-position eligibility (on DK) make him a strong cash option as he should hit top two for an offense that is projected to put up a lot of runs.

Home is Where the Strikeouts Are

An unimpressive ERA (4.67) paired with a high price tag may have you hesitant about rostering McCullers on Saturday night but the Houston righty has been much better than his ERA indicates (3.01 SIERA). Other than a bit of bad luck (.381 BABIP) Lance has actually been very good to start the year, as evidenced by an impressive 31.6% strikeout rate and a strong batted ball profile (63.6% ground ball rate, 21.2 Soft%). As a bonus, for those of you that are into Home/Away splits, Lance has significantly better numbers at home for his career (2.42 ERA, .289 wOBA, 30.4 K% vs 4.97 ERA, .325 wOBA, 23.7 K%).

GPP Nirvana

I’m in charge of “cash” filters on Saturday night and there’s no getting away from Richards and his price tag in that format, despite a tough matchup against a potent Yankees offense. By the time I actually sat down to write some analysis on Richards I noticed that both STL and Grant highlighted all the reasons why he is a good play. So instead of regurgitating all of that info, and despite being in charge of Saturday’s cash pool, I’m going to urge you to not play Richards in GPPs. Richards is likely going to be very heavily owned (and definitely PLAY him in cash) due to the context of Saturday’s slate. This leaves us with the opportunity to stack a potent offense (NYY) against one of the heaviest owned pitchers of the slate – that’s GPP nirvana.

Strong Skills At Every Level

While the world is busy fawning over Walker Buehler, don’t forget about the Cardinals Jack Flaherty, who is a more polished prospect depsite being a year younger than Buehler. Flaherty has succeeded at every level of the minors, and in Triple-A last season he posted a 25.1% K rate with 7.1% walks. From Rookie Ball all the way up through AAA, he has never walked more than 8% of batters at any stop, and has regularly been in the 23-25% range with strikeouts. In his first start for the Cardinals this season, he struck out nine Brewers in five innings. The Pirates aren’t an easy team to strikeout, but it’s a good ballpark and there’s not much power downside to be concerned about.

Upside In This Youngster

In his first five career starts, Lucchesi has shown plenty of upside with a 27.1% strikeout rate and has 7 or more K’s in three of his five starts. He’s shown ground ball ability and strong control at every step through the minors, so he has multiple paths to success. He has been obscenely good against left-handed batters, which will neutralize a couple of the Mets top power threats. He’s still young enough that there is risk involved, but often the pitcher has the edge the first time opposing batters see him. There is strong GPP points per dollar upside here.

Searching For Power

Eric Skoglund is a fly ball lefty with low strikeout ability who has allowed a lot of hard hits to right-handed batters. This sets up perfectly for Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson and Welington Castillo. All three of these Chicago hitters have hard hit rates above 35% with ISO’s above .200 since the start of 2017 against left-handed pitching. In that time, Abreu has a home every 14.3 AB, Castillo every 16.1 AB and Davidson’s huge fly ball rate giving him a home every 8.9 AB against lefties. You can go either for the stack, or just use these guys as one-offs for their home run power.

High End Lineup

The Astros seem to take a lot of flak for letting people down, but that’s only because they are such a good team that it becomes very noticeable when they have a bad day. They are still near the top of the league in runs scored and have scored 7+ runs in six of their last nine games. Daniel Mengden is a guy with low strikeout ability and good control, relying on soft contact and help from his fielders. But this season, even his hard hits are up, and he simply doesn’t have the stuff to get past hitters of this quality. His splits are essentially even in his career, so we can just use the best available Houston batters. Given that paying up at pitcher is not a necessity, we should be able to afford the big bats of George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, while getting some savings lower down in the lineup.

Load Up This Righty Heavy Stack

Francisco Liriano has looked solid this year with a 3.13 ERA, but this is no different a pitcher than the 5.66 ERA pitcher we saw last season. He still has a dangerously high walk rate, and has simply been lucky on balls in play with a .193 BABIP despite a 38% hard hit rate. The right-handed heavy Orioles are the right team to give him a dose of reality. They are well suited for stacking with several hitter having home run upside, and Liriano allowing free passes, so they should often be one hit away from a big inning. Manny Machado is the elite play here, but along with Adam Jones, Trey Mancini and Danny Valencia, they have a lot of ways to hurt him.

An Arm that will help you pay up for Bats

So far this season Smith has had 7+ K’s in 3/5 of his matchups. At the bare bones price of 4.5k on DK you are not going to get a better PT/$ upside maybe the rest of the season. He doesn’t draw the best matchup going against the Rockies who have a few lefties mashers in the lineup, but this matchup is on the road and in a pitchers park. Add in that CarGo is still on the DL and that three lefties in Dahl, Parra, and Blackmon in the lineup and this is a matchup with some huge K potental at the bottom of the lineup. Don’t think I would trust Smith in cash, but in GPP’s he allows you to fit in some of the priced up bats on the slate along with McCullers or Wood.

It ain't safe, but the upside is huge

Let me first off say that this is about as safe as eating gas station sushi, but just like gas station sushi, the price is way too cheap. Richards draws a matchup against a high strikeout team in the Yankees and Richards has one of the highest K% on the entire slate at 28.2%. Walk are a bit of a concern with Richards at 10.5%, but the risk is mostly mitigated with is 55% GB rate. The Yankees sit at a sub-4 implied team total right now, so Vegas seems to agree with me that the Richards price on DK is way too low. I don’t know if you can’t go here in cash, but he is the best GPP pitcher on the slate.

A Better Option Than the Surface Numbers Suggest

Don’t be fooled by the 4.67 ERA that McCullers currently sports. He’s much better than that. He has been victimized by a .381 BABIP and a 21.4% HR/FB rate so far this year, which is a fine way of saying he’s just had some poor luck. The strikeout stuff is still legit, and his xFIP sits at a tidy 2.79. Better times are ahead, and I like his odds of success at home against the A’s. He is a healthy home favorite of -200 in Vegas, so the win should also be within reach.

The Best Value Arm

Even though this is a scary matchup against the Yankees, I can’t help but write Richards up as a core play. His price tag is still very cheap, and the stuff looks as good as it ever has. The control has been a problem this year, but he looked sharper in his last start and carries a 31% strikeout rate for the season. His contact splits are very good, as he limits hard contact very well. As long as he can continue to iron out the command, I expect a good outing despite the difficult opponent. This is a wide open slate for pitching, and Richards is my favorite value piece.

Cheap Bombs Incoming

Valencia is probably the cheapest guy I’m planning on using on this slate and he draws one of the best matchups. Valencia has been a lefty masher his entire career and owns a .371 wOBA and .183 ISO v LHP. He draws a matchup against the worst pitcher on the slate in Liranio who gives up hard hits and walks to righties in bunches (Hello at bats with runners on base). Valencia is one of the best PT/$ plays on the entire slate and is both cash and GPP viable.

The Notorious Lefty-Masher Provides Value

Valencia is notorious for his ability to hit lefties, and he has been playing on a daily basis with the Orioles battling a lot of injuries. I expect him to hit higher in the lineup today against the aging Francisco Liriano, and I love the way he profiles in this matchup. Valencia’s career marks include a .310 batting average, .371 wOBA, and 135 wRC+ against lefties, and that’s not bad for a guy who will be hitting in the middle of a dangerous lineup and carries a dirt cheap price tag. Lock him in as your obvious value play tonight.