DFS Alerts
Easily The Top Option, If Not The Only Option
There is no mystery about the best pitcher on tonight’s slate. There is a huge gap between Cole and everyone else. It’s not as if Cole is a can’t miss elite ace, it’s just that the rest of this slate is bad. Cole was always solid in his career in Pittsburgh, and as the former #1 overall draft pick and his 96-mph fastball, he’s always been thought to have more upside than the 24% range he has showed. In his first start with Houston, he struck out 11 batters in seven innings, so perhaps he’s on his way. But even at his usual 23-24% K range, he’s the must play option in cash games and the top play in tournaments tonight at home against a weak opponent.
Top Of The Order Value
Jesse Winker has been hitting lead off for the Reds, and he’s a nice value option tonight. In 110 at bats against right-handed pitching since being called up last season, Winker has a .345 AVG with a .430 wOBA. He has a 166 wRC+, .236 ISO, and a 1.015 OPS in that span. His soft contact rate is only 11.6% and his strikeout rate is under 20%. Chad Kuhl was not a bad pitcher last season, and I’m not going to go out of my way to stack against him. With that said, I have no problem targeting a value play like Winker against him.
Inexpensive SP2 Option
It’s slim pickings after Gerrit Cole this evening, but if you are looking for an SP2 or you just want a little salary relief to load up on bats in Coors Field, give Chad Kuhl a look. The Pittsburgh Pirates are a decent sized favorite tonight at PNC Park, and the Cincinnati Reds currently have the second lowest implied run total on the slate. On top of that, the ballpark and weather definitely favors Kuhl. The Pirates young right hander is basically a league average pitcher, but he could provide us with a quality start and a handful of strikeouts, and that should work just fine at his salary.
The Two Top Bats On The Slate
With all due respect to Freddie Freeman, if you are paying up tonight, it should be for one of Charlie Blackmon or Nolan Arenado, as they face off against gas can Anibal Sanchez in Coors Field. The Atlanta Braves veteran pitcher has been a whipping boy throughout the last three seasons, getting hammered by lefties and righties alike, and I think we see more of the same tonight in this hitters paradise. Both Blackmon (.503 wOBA and a 40% hard hit rate VS RHP in 2017) and Arenado (.384 wOBA and a 37.0% hard hit rate VS RHP last year) do their best work in the thin air in Colorado, and neither slugger is likely to disappoint tonight in this A-plus matchup.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado Multi-Hit Machine At A Discounted Price
JC Ramirez had solid numbers against right-handed hitters last year, but lefties were a completely different story. In 2017, the Los Angeles Angels 29-year-old right hander surrendered a .374 wOBA along with a 44.8% hard hit rate to hitters from the left side of the plate, which opens the door tonight for the Oakland As lefties. Enter the inexpensive Jed Lowrie. The As second baseman is a hitting machine and I think we see a multi-hit performance from him tonight, which will easily pay off his low salary.
Top Point-Per-Dollar Play On The Slate?
Mike Minor was quite good out of the bullpen for the Texas Rangers last season and he has turned it into a starting gig this year. Unlike most left-handed pitchers, Minor does not struggle mightily versus righties, although he is a fly-ball pitcher in a very hitter-friendly ball park, and the matchup certainly favors Kendrys Morales. In 2017, the Toronto Blue Jays DH was an absolute beast versus lefties, producing an impressive .420 wOBA and a fantastic 41.4% hard hit rate. Considering the plus matchup and his inexpensive price tag, Morales instantly becomes one of the top point-per-dollar plays on the slate this evening.
Top Arm In All Formats
The San Diego Padres should be a better hitting team in 2018, however, this is still not a good offense, and losing Wil Myers certainly does not help them. So far in 2018, the Padres continue to be undisciplined at the plate (17th in BB%), while toting a 22.2% strikeout rate, and I doubt we see them have very much success tonight at Minute Maid Park. Gerrit Cole was brilliant in his first start as a Houston Astro (7 IP, 1 ER and 11 Ks), and he has similar upside again this evening, making him the top option on the bump tonight on this five-game slate.
Start of Friday's TOR-TEX game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers on Friday night will begin in a rain delay The teams have already announced that they plan to resume play within 45 minutes of the tarp being removed from the field, so this game appears to have a decent chance of playing through upon resumption, keeping both hitters and pitchers in play for daily fantasy formats.
As reported by: Adam Grosbard via Twitter
Parker Bridwell has a large discrepancy between his xwOBA (.346) and actual wOBA (.312)
There’s a lot of confidence in suggesting that Parker Bridwell did not deserve his 3.64 ERA last season. Not only were all of his estimators nearly a run and a half higher, but he had the largest negative difference (32 points) between his wOBA and xwOBA (.346) on the board for 2017. RHBs had an xwOBA 37 points higher than actual against him, while LHBs had an xwOBA a full 50 points higher (.325 – .375). Although the lineup is not yet confirmed, the A’s have four strong hitters against RHP expected to play tonight. Matt Olson (180 wRC+, .404 ISO vs RHP career) and Khris Davis (135 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP since last season) are the most obvious. Matt Joyce (125 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Matt Chapman (120 wRC+, .253 ISO) are more affordable, though Chapman’s cost is oddly the highest of the four on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Matt Joyce, Matt Olson, Parker Bridwell
Anthony Rizzo (back tightness) scratched Friday; Victor Caratini replaces
Rizzo has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not play in Friday’s matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers due to back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Victor Caratini, who will play first base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, moving Kyle Schwarber up two spots in the order to third and Addison Russell to fifth. Other than that, the remainder of the Cubs lineup stays intact as they face off against Brandon Woodruff this evening.
As reported by: Carrie Muskat via Twitter Lance McCullers easily projects for highest ownership rate tonight
On a small slate with weather concerns in half of the remaining six games, Lance McCullers is easily the pitcher with the highest projected ownership rate, but what kind of effect will that have on roster construction and the ability to afford some of the top projected bats? Premium subscribers can find that and also who the most likely pivot or compliment might be on the mound tonight on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership One cancellation, but three games still carry weather related risk in Kevin's evening forecast
While a bit more optimistic than he was earlier in the day about ability to play through some rain tonight, Kevin goes in depth on likely weather effects in three remaining games tonight. Along with reading his in-depth update on the Weather page, players will want to tune into Crunch Time at 6:30 for a further breakdown.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time Just Too Cheap
With the slate getting tougher by the minute, it’s too hard to pass up a guy with this skill level against left-handed pitching at this salary, especially out of the leadoff spot. He gives you so much flexibility with your roster, even if he gets pinch-hit for, he has a good chance to help your team against Matt Moore.
Angels could blast a pitcher who misses few bats and allows too much hard contact (8% Barrels/BBE last year)
The Angels have a 4.81 implied run line that’s more middle than top of a 12 team board, but they may the lineup to attack with tonight. Oakland starter Daniel Gossett does not miss many bats and allows hard contact. He didn’t strike out a single one of the 18 Angels he faced first time out. There’s no reason to project for tonight to go that much differently. He had no actual platoon split with a wOBA right around .380 against him for batters from either side last year, though it was actually RHBs that fared better by xwOBA (.384) and hard hit rate (36.4%). Mike Trout (186 wRC+, .350 ISO vs RHP since last season) might be a hard fit at $4.8K or higher on either site, but only two other bats are even above $4K on DraftKings. Shohei Ohtani’s cost ($3.9K DK/$3.4K FD) is rising fast after a great start with the bat. Zack Cozart (135 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Justin Upton (118 wRC+, .231 ISO) are those two remaining more expensive bats. Luis Valbuena (102 wRC+, .247 ISO) is the value bat here.
Other tagged players: Zack Cozart, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Luis Valbuena, Daniel Gossett Matt Moore brings a .343 xwOBA last year and career 38.3 GB% to Texas
Kevin’s most recent forecast has some concern of a delay, but less so for a PPD, which is really what players are worried about for this game in Texas…hitters! Matt Moore brings with him from San Francisco some of the worst Statcast numbers on the board. His .358 wOBA was completely confirmed by a .352 xwOBA, including an 88.4 mph aEV, 8.5% Barrels/BBE and 38% 95+ mph EV that are all worst on the board for 2017. That and a career 38.3 GB% are unlikely to do him any favors in Texas. A career and 2017 reverse platoon split matter nothing here because the Blue Jays have stacked the lineup entirely right-handed against him. RHBs had a .326 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against him last year with a 35.1 Hard%, the lower actual wOBA likely a function of a friendly home park, which means we’d expect to see something potentially worse than his xwOBA in Texas. At the top of the lineup, Josh Donaldson (176 wRC+, .393 ISO) and Justin Smoak (165 wRC+, 231 ISO) have destroyed LHP since last season, as have Kendrys Morales (164 wRC+, .231 ISO, 42 Hard%), Kevin Pillar (144 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Devon Travis (168 wRC+, .290 ISO) near the bottom, the latter with only 35 PAs. Steve Pearce has a stronger career track record, but just a 94 wRC+ and .226 ISO vs southpaws since last season. Yangervis Solarte, Russell Martin, and Randal Grichuk are probably all better their a sub-75 wRC+ against LHP.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Kevin Pillar, Devon Travis, Steve Pearce, Matt Moore