DFS Alerts

RHBs have a .344 wOBA, but career 66.5 GB% against Luis Perdomo; Houston's 5.51 run line tops the board

The Houston Astros are a conundrum tonight. With a board best 5.51 implied run line, the expensive, top half of their lineup runs entirely right-handed until Josh Reddick (134 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2017) in the fifth spot. Though RHBs have a .344 career wOBA against him, Luis Perdomo has grounded them on 66.5% of batted balls. The only RHB in the lineup for the Astros to have exceeded a 40% fly ball rate against same handed pitchers since last season is Evan Gattis (109 wRC+, .187 ISO). Considering that players are likely to be paying up for either (or both) of Lance McCullers and/or Kyle Hendricks tonight, perhaps it’s the back half of the Houston lineup the deserves stacking consideration. Marwin Gonzalez (152 wRC+, .231 ISO) merits strong consideration below $4K on either site. Brian McCann (106 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Derek Fisher (81 wRC+, .164 ISO, 46.8 hard%) are the cheapest bats in the lineup, the latter costing $3.1K or less on either site. It’s not that the top half of the order are poor choices should they be affordable, but lineup construction would seem difficult and even then, a choice between Astros and Yankees, who are more likely to generate air contact in a more hitter friendly environment would seem an obvious choice (depending on weather and projected ownership rates of course).

Marco Estrada had just a 27.5 GB% (.366 wOBA) vs RHBs last season, which could be a problem in Texas

With a low risk of PPD in Kevin’s afternoon forecast, this Toronto/Texas game might be the safest of the weather concern games assuming players aren’t interested in the pitchers. Marco Estrada faulted sleep deprivation and anxiety for his issues last season, no joking matter and absolutely able to mess with anyone’s work performance. You’d imagine he didn’t sleep much before his first start this season against the Yankees, and while he did go seven innings, his strikeouts and home runs both totaled two and were exceeded by his three walks. An extreme fly ball pitcher (30.2 GB% last season) with a park downgrade in Texas, doesn’t produce a confident projection, though he should accumulate a few more strikeouts here. A reverse-platoon split for his career, RHBs really torched him for a .366 wOBA last season with the ground ball rate dropping to 27.5%. Adrian Beltre has a 120 wRC+ and .203 ISO vs RHP since last season, the most complete hitter in the lineup without the platoon advantage. Robinson Chirinos (94 wRC+, .221 ISO) and Drew Robinson (102 wRC+, .220 ISO) are both cheap (< $3K on either site) and dangerous. Joey Gallo (121 wRC+, .345 ISO, 46.1 Hard%) can’t be taken out of the discussion against a fly ball pitcher in this park despite the reverse split. An amazing 57.1% of his contact against RHP last year was in the air.

Brandon Woodruff is the fifth best prospect in the Milwaukee system according to Fangraphs

The game in Milwaukee is one of the few weather friendly spots on the board and Brandon Woodruff may, by process of elimination, be one of the few low-cost, weather safe pitching options remaining. While paying up for either his opponent or McCullers is the move on FanDuel, paying up for both is difficult on DraftKings tonight, which is where Woodruff may come in at $6.9K. A pre-season scouting report named him the fifth best prospect in the system with a future value of 50 on the 20-80 scale. While his change-up may need some work, his fastball and slider play in the majors and Fangraphs prospect writers believe he’s ready to be a fourth starter for the big club right now. Left-handed batters (98 faced) have a .381 wOBA against him with just a 38.2 GB% and 7.2 K-BB%. His overall 82.9 mph aEV in 43 innings last year was best on today’s board, pushing his xwOBA below .300. Vegas currently has the line at a middling 4.62 runs for the Cubs, meaning players can probably find some value in strong left-handed bats too here. While Woodruff’s xwOBA was 51 points higher than his actual .249 for an even .300 against RHBs, he generated ground balls on 57.1% of those batted were on the ground. Expensively, Anthony Rizzo (131 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is the top bat here and potentially the top first base bat on the board tonight. Kyle Schwarber (115 wRC+, .287 ISO) brings some thunder. Neither Ben Zobrist, nor Jason Heyward exceed a 100 wRC+ or .150 ISO against southpaws since last season. The former with a $1.3K price differential between sites, the latter at $3K or less on either site.

Yankee right-handed power should punish a reverse platoon, long ball prone Kevin Gausman

With winds blowing out to left at 15-20 mph and Kevin Gausman on the mound, who allowed three home runs in a first start where his velocity was down a frightening three miles per hour and has a notable reverse split (RHBs carer .341 wOBA, .344 wOBA and .343 xwOBA last season), it’s easy to recommend stacking all the Yankee right-handed power that the salary cap will allow with the Yankees one of four teams on the board with an implied run line of five or more. Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .359 ISO), Giancarlo Stanton (140 wRC+, .320 ISO) and Gary Sanchez (119 wRC+, .237 ISO) have all punished same-handed pitching since last season. The issues are that Kevin believes this game will be wet and the weather may remove many of today’s pitching options, potentially forcing players to pay up in safer spots. This will make roster construction difficult with Yankee stacks. All three, along with Didi Gregorius (135 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP since 2017) are certainly ideal plays should weather and salary allow it.

Conditions may be favorable to RH power (winds out to left), but C.C. Sabathia limits hard contact well

Kevin’s updated forecast suggests a potential window to get this game in, but C.C. Sabathia is still a significant risk with winds blowing out 15-20 mph to left against a lineup with a lot of right-handed power. Though only Manny Machado (110 wRC+, .239 ISO vs LHP since 2017), Jonathan Schoop (155 wRC+, ,289 ISO) and Tim Beckham (114 wRC+, .293 ISO) have shown significant upside against southpaws, rain concerns make this a somewhat concerning spot. Sabathia has learned to use his remaining skills to generate weak contact and remain somewhat of a league average output after his velocity has left him. An 84.4 mph aEV last year helps confirm a .310 wOBA. While he didn’t really have much of a split, his .320 xwOBA against RHBs is really still only league average and just 10 points above his actual mark, which diminishes the outlook for a Baltimore offense with just a 3.84 implied run line as well. Danny Valencia (121 wRC+, .188 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Caleb Joseph (121 wRC+, .246 ISO) may be acceptable punt options at $3K or less, should players accept the weather related risk and be paying up for pitching.

Top Pitcher of the Slate

Lance McCullers pitched well in his first outing of the year and has shown plenty of upside throughout his career. He keeps the ball on the ground, he limits hard contact, and he strikes batters out at a high rate. He comes into tonight’s game as a massive favorite against the Padres, who happen to be one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Trevor Williams was an effective contact manager last year with a 19.5+ K% in all but two months

Trevor Williams could be an interesting secondary pitching option if the weather cooperates (Kevin currently has it at ORANGE for steady rain concerns). He walked five Tigers, striking out just one of 20 batters in his season debut, but had a league average walk rate last year. He also had an 18.4 K%, but was below 19.5% in just two months last year (he was actually below 14% in each of those months) and was quite the contact manager (85 mph aEV, .313 xwOBA). While his wOBA was actually lower against right-handed batters, an xwOBA 34 points higher reverses that with an xwOBA 31 points lower than actual against left-handed batters, who had just a 23.6 Hard% against him. Pittsburgh plays neutral towards left-handed power, but buries right-handed power. A trio of left-handed bats for Cincinnati have enough thump to be kept in consideration (Joey Votto 165 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP since last year – Scooter Gennett 139 wRC+, .254 ISO – Jesse Winker 164 wRC+, .248 ISO), but considering weather and a 3.87 implied run line, this is still probably not a recommended point of attack.

Great Environment for Pitchers

Castillo is an exciting young pitcher. In 15 starts at the major league level last season, he posted a 3.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. Add in a ground ball rate close to 60% and we could have an elite pitcher in the making. It’s expected to be cold and rainy tonight in Pittsburgh. While that brings a potential delay or postponement, it is also bad for run production. Assuming we get the green light from Kevin Roth, Castillo makes an excellent play in all formats. The Pirates aren’t a high-strikeout offense, but we typically don’t worry as much about that when it comes to pitchers with elite strikeout rates.

Start of Friday's ATL-COL game will be delayed due to snow

The start of the matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Colorado Rockies on Friday afternoon will be in a delay due to inclement weather. Given the delay announcement prior to first pitch, the chances of a postponement exponentially increases as the 4:10 pm EST lock time approaches. Kevin Roth currently has this game classified as ORANGE in his latest updated MLB forecast (borderline ORANGE/RED), and the snow, freezing fog, and brutally cold temperatures don’t shed much optimism on this baseball game being played this afternoon.

Luis Castillo has the highest strikeout rate on the board (27.3%), but serious weather concerns

Luis Castillo would be one of the top upside arms on the board tonight if not for serious weather concerns. Kevin had the game at ORANGE for steady rain early this morning. Winds at 15-20 mph blowing out to left are not a deal breaker though, considering the extent to which the park suppresses right-handed power and the lack of that in the Pittsburgh lineup. Castillo was down around a mile per hour velocity wise with the Nationals smacking him around in his first start (40 Hard%, two home runs – Adams & Turner), though he actually duplicated his 27.3 K% from last year in that game. That gives him the highest strikeout rate on the board should the game play, but players would want to be super-confident about delays. Castillo had an odd combination of a 41.6 Z-O-Swing% and 81.6 Z-Contact%, which means he was deadly inside the strike zone last season, while Statcast gives him credit for a .257 xwOBA last season that’s the best on the board by far. His 3.5% Barrels/BBE is better than any other pitcher last year with more than 50 innings. The Pirates have just a 3.63 implied run line without any bats really worth taking the risk on.

Weather concerns in most spots leaves two obvious pitching choices tonight

Friday night was never going to be a pitching rich slate and a quick look at the RotoGrinders Weather page could take pitchers in more than half the games off the board (four games have at least a hint of ORANGE and the two games that are YELLOW/ORANGE are probably not games where players are looking for pitchers anyway). One (LA @ SF) has already been cancelled as this is being written, officially removing Kenta Maeda from the board. The good news is that two of tonight’s top options are pitching in domes with no weather concerns at all. Lance McCullers is just one of three pitchers on the board with a strikeout rate above 22% last season (25.8%) and the only one remaining without significant weather concerns. He throws lots and lots of curveballs and used the pitch 56% of the time to strike out 10 of 21 Rangers in his first start. He pitches in one of the most negative run environments in baseball, where the Astros will host the Padres tonight. He had a 66.1 GB% and -4.0 Hard-Soft% at home last season, resulting in a ridiculous .245 xwOBA. Kyle Hendricks was able to strike out batters at an above average rate and generate a 3.03 ERA, despite additional velocity losses to an already slow fastball. His strand rate was above 80% for the second year in a row and certainly not sustainable, but his 83.9 mph aEV is lowest on the board. While he did walk three of the 25 Marlins he faced in his first start, he maintained the league average strikeout rate (20%) with 10 of 16 batted balls on the ground (-12.5 Hard-Soft%). He’s also the only pitcher on the main slate to have averaged at least six innings per start over the last two calendar years. While Milwaukee is not a favorable place to pitch, the absence of one of Milwaukee’s top LHBs (Yelich) should help him. RHBs have a career .260 wOBA against Hendricks.

Friday's LAD-SF game postponed due to rain

The matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants on Friday night has been postponed due to rain. There’s yet to be any reports from either team on when the previously scheduled game will be rescheduled, but since the Dodgers and Giants are divisional foes, they’ll have plenty of options to choose from if they opt not to host any variation of a doubleheader over the weekend.

Power Platoon

Quite frankly, the beginning of the season has been a little boring to start the year because of how cheap Blue Jay hitters have been despite being in strong run producing environments. Friday night is the same as they take on a struggling Matt Moore in Arlington. The Blue Jays 5.5 implied run total is the highest of the slate (at the time of this writing) and your cash game lineups are likely going to feature cheap Blue Jays like Devon Travis and Steve Pearce. One thing to note with Pearce and other cheap spot starting platoon hitters – their likelihood of getting PH for is high. This isn’t a huge deal if the player is cheap enough, like Pearce on Friday night, but is important to note in case there are similar priced alternatives that are expected to get a full complement of at bats.

Oportunity Cost

Perhaps the most important thing to consider when choosing which value plays to plug into your lineup is opportunity cost – or the loss of potential gain from other alternatives. The opportunity cost at the catcher position is typically low simply because there aren’t very many good hitting catchers. As is the case, the catcher position oftentimes represents a great position to “punt” with a low priced option. Robinson Chirinos represents the top low priced catching option on Friday’s slate. Chirinos, who has posted a .234 ISO and .252 ISO the last two years against same handed pitching, has a strong power matchup against fly-baller Marco Estrada in hitter friendly Arlington. He’s my “sneaky” HR call of the day.

Maybe This Time?

UPDATE: Travis makes a better GPP option as he’ll move down to ninth in the order for the Blue Jays.

Travis has been wildly disappointing to start the year but as long as the fella remains cheap and continues to leadoff for a capable Jays offense he’s going to remain a strong salary relief option most slates. Most season long projections have Travis as a below average hitter so don’t be tricked into thinking you’re rostering an offensive juggernaut in Travis. What you’re getting in Travis is a lot of opportunity (leadoff hitter for good offense) in a good ballpark (Arlington) at a super cheap price ($2,300 FD; $3,100 DK).