DFS Alerts
Ace Skill Set At A Discounted Price
If you are not on board with Charlie Morton, or you are simply looking for an SP2, I would suggest you roll with Luke Weaver. The St. Louis Cardinals right-hander is not only under priced, he also possesses as much upside as any pitcher on the bump this afternoon. Weaver was outstanding as a rookie in 2017 (28.6% strikeout rate, 2.93 xFIP and a 25.9% hard hit rate), and he followed that up with a dominate spring (0.55 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 19 Ks in just over 16 IP), and he is still getting better. The matchup may not be ideal, but Weaver is already an ace, and I think we should be taking advantage of his discounted price tag while we can.
Top Option On The Bump
The top arm on the mound today is once again a Houston Astro, as Charlie Morton is next up to face the San Diego Padres this afternoon at Minute Maid Park. The Padres are certainly an improved offense from last year, but they remain an average offense at best, and with their best hitter in Wil Myers out of the lineup, Morton should be able to dominate them. Morton was extremely good for Astros a year ago (26.4% strikeout rate, 51.8% groundball rate and a 26.9% hard hit rate), and he was lights out in his first start of the season (6 IP 0 ER and 6 Ks). With excellent control, a solid strikeout rate and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, Morton rarely gets hard and I think we see him post similar numbers to his last start, making him the top cash game option on the slate.
Possible late rain at Coors Field the only concern of note in MLB weather forecast
All in all, it’s a great night for baseball for Saturday’s five-game main slate across the Majors, as the matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Colorado Rockies at Coors Field is the only game that has received a grade lower than GREEN on Kevin Roth’s latest MLB weather forecast, checking in with a classification of YELLOW due to possible chances of rain later in the game. This means that hitters should be more than safe given the overall low risk of a rain delay and almost no chance of a postponement. That being said, be sure to check out the full updated forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below for all your weather-based daily fantasy needs.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather
Bryan Mitchell owns a lowly 3.6% K-BB% in his career, mostly as a reliever
Bryan Mitchell is set to make his second start of the 2018 campaign, and he was less than impressive in his first start against the Colorado Rockies, allowing five earned runs and striking out zero hitters in five innings pitched. Though those numbers seem relatively lackluster, performances like that have become the norm for Mitchell throughout his career, as he has accumulated just a 13.6% strikeout rate and a 10.0% walk rate in his four big league seasons. This leaves a 51.3% groundball rate and 29.5% hard hit percentage as the only discernable skills in Mitchell’s overall pitching profile and typically leaves him at the discretion and variance of BABIP on a start-to-start basis. That said, it doesn’t make a whole lot sense to delve too much deeper into his splits against certain handedness since Mitchell has amassed just 103.1 career innings with most of them coming out of the bullpen in a reliever role. Further piling on, the matchup for Mitchell couldn’t be much worse, as the Houston Astros possess power bats up and down their lineup that also do a fairly decent job at making contact consistently, evidenced by a combined 19.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed batters last season. The best individual players to target from this squad appear to be George Springer (0.227 ISO, 0.398 xwOBA, 36.3% HH% vs RHP), Jose Altuve (0.200 ISO, 0.401 xwOBA vs RHP), Carlos Correa (0.238 ISO, 0.445 xwOBA, 39.0% HH% vs RHP), Marwin Gonzalez (0.218 ISO, 0.367 xwOBA vs RHP), and Jake Marisnick (0.289 ISO, 0.342 xwOBA vs RHP), though their hitting position goes a long way in determining their viability as one-offs or part of a stack of tournaments. The elevated price tags of most of the Astros will also work as a natural pivot away from hitters in the Coors Field game and makes them a logical stacking candidate in all daily fantasy formats on Saturday’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Marisnick, Bryan Mitchell Gregory Polanco (foot discomfort) scratched Saturday; Adam Frazier replaces
Polanco has been scratched from the Pittsburgh Pirates original confirmed lineup and will not play in Saturday’s matchup with the Cincinnati Reds due to right foot discomfort stemming from a fouled off ball in Friday’s game. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Adam Frazier, who will play right field and slot directly into Polanco’s second spot in the order, which means that the remainder of the Diamondbacks lineup will stay intact as they face off against Sal Romano this evening.
As reported by: the Pittsburgh Pirates via Twitter The Padres currently own a 3.0 runs implied total, a full run less than any other team on Saturday's main slate
Cole is coming off of a tremendous performance in his first start of the 2018 campaign against the Texas Rangers, holding them to one run and recording 11 strikeouts in seven innings of work. Tonight, he’ll take on the San Diego Padres at home, essentially finding himself in one of the top pitching environments by a wide margin on Saturday’s abbreviated 5-game main slate. Unfortunately, the type of strikeout upside Cole flashed in his first outing as a member of the Houston Astros isn’t something that can be reasonably expected moving forward, as he owns just a 22.9% strikeout rate for his entire career. In fact, in his five years as a part of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, Cole never posted a strikeout rate higher than 24.3% over the course of a full season and instead made a name for himself with excellent control (6.3% BB%), solid groundball ability (47.2% GB%), and inducing soft contact (20.4% Soft%) on a regular basis. This matchup also couldn’t get much better from a run prevention standpoint since the Padres are projected for a slate-low 3.0 runs and will roll out a lineup that sported just a 0.159 ISO versus right-handed pitching last season, elevating the safety of Cole in this spot even further. On a different slate, Cole could make for an interesting fade candidate in tournament formats at his projected ownership percentage and price tag, but even if his strikeout totals regress back to their normal levels, he is still the best pitcher on the slate by a country mile, making him the top target in cash games and tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines for MLB Nick Ahmed (illness) scratched Saturday; Chris Owings replaces
Ahmed has been scratched from the Arizona Diamondbacks original confirmed lineup and will not play in Saturday’s matchup with the St.Louis Cardinals due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Chris Owings, who will play second base and slot directly into Ahmed’s sixth spot in the order, which will move Ketel Marte over to shortstop. However, other than that, the remainder of the Diamondbacks lineup will stay intact as they face off against Michael Wacha this afternoon.
As reported by: the Arizona Diamondbacks via Twitter Power Upside In The Leadoff Spot
The Blue Jays are one of the top stacks on the late slate, and they present some nice value as well. Steve Pearce hit leadoff against a lefty last night, and I would expect him to be back in the leadoff spot again tonight. Since the start of the 2016 season, Pearce has a .265 ISO with a .397 xwOBA in 194 PAs against left-handed pitching. Minor was a bullpen arm last season and relied on his fastball/slider combo for more than 78% of his pitches. His wOBA on the fastball was .261 and it was .215 on the slider, but the xwOBA was .314 (fastball) and .216 (slider). I expect him to struggle more a starter, and I will be stacking up the Blue Jays tonight.
Cheap Home Run Upside
I’m going to do everything I can to fit in Cole tonight, and that’s going to involve taking some cheap power bats. Dickerson stands out, but the ballpark/weather is the one concern when targeting power bats. Since the start of 2017, Dickerson has a .219 ISO with a 34.7% hard contact rate. He’s hit 24 home runs against righties in that span, and has a .274 AVG. The strikeouts will happen, and that’s the one concerning thing, but you know that when you’re playing him.
Too Cheap At Leadoff
With Cole and two expensive Coors bats in the core, we need even more salary relief, and with only five games on the slate, there’s not a lot of great options. The one that stands out in the outfield is Jesse Winker, if he gets the leadoff spot against Chad Kuhl. There is just nothing special about Kuhl’s skills against lefties and Winker was a strong on base hitter throughout his minor league career and has started his major league career with a .389 OBP in his first 158 PA. Lock in the salary savings where you can to be able to afford the top hitters of the night.
Cheap Starting Pitcher To Target
When looking at this slate, I like four pitchers to potentially use, and they’re the four highest priced pitchers on DraftKings. I’m not playing either pitcher in Coors, no way I’m touching a lefty against the Blue Jays, JC Ramirez faces a left-handed heavy offense, and Mitchell just hasn’t showed he’s ready to be a starter. The top of the order for the Reds scares me, and this could be the spot that gets to Kuhl but with the limited options, I think you have to take a chance. He’s more of a fly ball pitcher, and he’s pitching in one of the best pitcher’s ballparks in baseball. I could see him going 5-6 innings, with 3 ERs and 4-6 strikeouts in this matchup.
All He Does Is Hit
With Gerrit Cole and the expensive Coors bats, we need some salary savers, and Jed Lowrie is strong enough to deserve a spot in the core. Nobody seems to want to like him, but all he does is hit. His skill set has virtually no weakness against right-handed pitching, and J.C Ramirez is below average in strikeouts and allows tons of hard contact to left-handed bats. With a 14.6% strikeout rate, 36% hard hits and 27% line drives, it’s no wonder Lowrie was second in the league in doubles last year, and as we saw last night, there’s even some power upside.
One Of Few Value Pitching Options
We don’t have a ton of options on this slate, and if you’re looking to get off the expensive pitchers, I think Triggs is in play. While they lowered the fence in right field this off-season, it’s still a pitcher’s ballpark. Triggs will face a right-handed heavy Angels lineup tonight and has been able to limit the damage against righties since being called up last season. He has a .333 wOBA with a 26.6% hard contact rate in 38.2 innings against right-handed hitters. He only allowed five home runs to righties in that span. He’s nothing to get excited about, but he’s a value option on this slate.
Worth The Spend On Both Sides
The Rockies should be the first look tonight, but I just can’t overlook Freddie Freeman in his first Coors Field trip of the year. Everything about his skills are elite in any ballpark. He makes contact, he is patient, he hits for average, he hits for power, the lineup is strong around him, there’s simply no flaw here. His line drive hitting style is ideal for Coors Field. If you can afford him, just do it.
Worth Every Penny
It’s Coors Field night, and you know what to do. Virtually every day, Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon will be the elite plays at home. They are too expensive to use them both as Core Plays, so I’ll side slightly with Arenado here. Anibal Sanchez has leaned towards reverse splits the past few seasons with much higher hard contact to righties. And when just looking at Blackmon vs Arenado, while Blackmon has better overall numbers against RHP, Arenado has the edge in contact, which will help against Sanchez and his still respectable strikeout ability.