DFS Alerts
Power Stack Potential
Marco Estrada has become a better pitcher over the years, but he is still a massive fly ball guy that allows plenty of home runs. That doesn’t bode well for a game in Texas, and the Rangers’ power bats are very much in play here. I wouldn’t necessarily say you need to do a full four or five-man stack here, but you can certainly pluck out a couple of the power hitters as a fine little mini-stack. For example, playing just Beltre and Odor (and possibly some hitters on the other side of this game) makes a lot of sense. I would expect this game to feature the most runs of any game tonight.
Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus
A Solid Late Night Stack
If you are looking for the late night hammer, give a Dodgers stack a peek against Derek Holland. The Giants’ lefty starter really shouldn’t be part of a major league rotation these days, but injuries to Samardzija and Bumgarner have forced them to give Holland a look. He was dreadful against RHBs a year ago, allowing them to post a .408 wOBA and ridiculous 41% hard contact rate in a large sample size. The downer is that the two biggest bats for the Dodgers hit from the left side in Seager and Bellinger, but the RHBs are attractive in this matchup and are also a little bit cheaper. This is a fine stack to use on this surprisingly short Friday slate.
Other tagged players: Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes Favorite Stack of the Night
The Blue Jays check in as my favorite overall stack of the night. They will undoubtedly load up their lineup with right-handed bats against Matt Moore, and they will face him in a park that is very conducive to offense. Playing in Texas is like playing at the Equator right now given the cold weather in the Midwest and Northeast, so this game should feature some fireworks. There’s also the fact that Moore isn’t really any good, and he struggled against hitters from both sides of the plate last year, barely achieving a 40% ground ball rate while allowing hard contact over 33% of the time to hitters from each side. Fire up the top and middle of the Blue Jays order with extreme confidence here.
Other tagged players: Steve Pearce, Devon Travis The Top Point Per Dollar Pitcher?
Luis Castillo put up some eye popping numbers a year ago, and I like the matchup tonight against a Pirates team that has played over their collective heads in the season’s first week. Castillo got roughed up by a good Nationals lineup in his first start, but he still showed off his solid floor by piling up six strikeouts in five innings. It’s barely above freezing in Pittsburgh today, so it’s going to be a tough night to hit. Castillo is my favorite pitcher on the board when you factor in price tags.
The Riskiest of Risk/Reward Plays
Let’s make this clear right away: there is absolutely no way I would touch Gausman in a cash game format tonight. The matchup is a dangerous one against a potent Yankees lineup, and he got hammered in his first start. However, somewhere in that right arm is some upside, which led him to a solid stretch during 2017 and a 22% strikeout rate during the year. There isn’t a lot to love at pitcher tonight, though, and Gausman is dirt cheap. If he can just go five solid innings without allowing much damage, he pays off this price tag. He’s an interesting GPP choice, especially in multi-pitcher formats.
Rain, Rain, Go Away
I didn’t really want to double down on a game where weather may be a serious issue but salary options are seriously lacking on Friday night. I can’t comfortably recommend a broken Matt Moore against the Blue Jays offense in Arlington, or Brandon Woodruff against the heavy hitting Cubs offense at hitter friendly Miller park, or worse Luis Perdomo against the Astros….well, you get the point. Williams comes with significantly less luster than Castillo but benefits from the same contextual factors that Castillo does – pitcher friendly park, weak opposing offense, and poor hitting weather. Don’t expect a lot of strikeouts from Williams but a performance similar to his season debut isn’t out of the question.
Not Your Traditional Salary Saver
The biggest concern surrounding Castillo on Friday night isn’t the matchup versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, it’s whether the game plays or not. If they are able to play this game, Castillo is one of the top pitching options of the entire slate, not just from a pt/$ perspective but also in terms of raw projection. Castillo got touched up a bit in his season debut against the Nats as he allowed six earned runs in five innings pitched but he also showed his strikeout ability by recording six strikeouts. While Castillo won’t get the “benefit” of home field advantage, this game playing in Pittsburgh works in his favor as PNC is much friendlier to pitchers than his home park. Castillo has some gaudy season long projections with a strikeout rate in the high 20’s and and ERA south of four. Needless to say, by rostering Castillo you’re getting a talented pitcher that has high strikeout upside in a favorable matchup in a pitchers park – you can’t ask for much more than that.
Best Play At The Position
Since we need a catcher on DraftKings, this gives me a chance to get a Dodgers righty in the core against Derek Holland. Holland was slaughtered by right-handed bats last season to the tune of a .408 wOBA and 2.26 HR/9. Barnes has one of the best skill sets on this team against lefties, with a 15.5% K rate and 13.2% BB leading to a .372 OBP, and his 40% hard hits giving him a .257 ISO. Too cheap at his position in this matchup.
Hall-Of-Fame Hitter Still Hitting
We need a cheaper core play in order to fit in a couple big bats, and while my first lean is towards Dodgers righties, I just can’t ignore this price tag on Adrian Beltre. Between Donaldson and Beltre, third base is pretty well settled in this game, and you can use both of these guys on FanDuel and FantasyDraft. There is so much contact ability here along with a long history of production and a middle of the lineup spot on a good team in a good hitting environment. Beltre has piled up eight straight seasons with a strikeout rate under 13.5%, and has batted at least .287 in all eight of those year, including .312 last season along with a 36% hard hit rate. He’s just too good for this salary. For you history buffs, he passed Rod Carew for 24th on the All-Time hits list yesterday, and will soon pass Ichiro for most hits of any active player.
Spend Up For The Best
There are several top bats at top prices that are in great spots tonight. I side with Mike Trout facing the weakest pitcher of the elite bats. Daniel Gossett allowed 36% hard hits to righties last season which resulted in a ridiculous 2.53 HR/9. Though that number will come down, Trout is the bat most likely to keep those issues alive. He posted an out of sight .450 wOBA and .359 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2017 and simply the best hitter in the game. If you’re going to spend up, spend up for the best.
The Lefty-Mashing Continues
Donaldson does not come cheap, but going into Texas against Matt Moore is an ideal situation for this lefty-masher. Moore allows fly balls and hard hits to right-handed batters, while Donaldson is coming off yet another season of making lefties lives miserable. His 42% hard hit rate led to a .427 wOBA and .400 ISO with a home run once every 8.5 at bats. In his career, over the course of almost 900 PA, his ISO sits at a sterling .301. Lock and load.
Top Of The Line Skills With A Savings
If we even partially believe in Castillo’s 2017 numbers, then this is a clear case of underpricing. Yes, he had a rough first start, but the strikeouts were still there, and going into Pittsburgh is a much friendlier matchup than he saw last time out against Washington. Like McCullers, Castillo combines high strikeout ability with near elite ground balls. That gives him a solid mix of safety and upside, and at this salary, he is my top points per dollar play of the night.
The Skill Set To Pay For
On FanDuel, McCullers is the clear top option in all formats at his reasonable salary. He combines strikeout upside with elite ground ball ability. In his first start of the season, he struck out 10 batters in less than six innings. He started similarly in 2017, with a 29% K rate in the first month of the season. The Padres may not be as extreme for strikeouts as last season, but they also don’t have much firepower to hurt him. He’s slightly overpriced on DK/FDRFT, but as the clear top projected pitcher of the night, I still recommend getting finding a way to get him in your cash games.
Kevin's evening forecast has cold temperatures but no significant risks
Better than the morning forecast, but still cold for the four games taking place tonight. There’s just one game even graded YELLOW tonight. Join Kevin for Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for a more in-depth look at tonight’s weather.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time
Jon Lester's struggles and continued velocity drop in his first start inspire little confidence
Jon Lester struggled in 2017, but there were some positive indicators in an xwOBA (.301) 25 points below his actual one with an 85.4 mph aEV, while both his 23.6 K% and 11.0 SwStr% remained well above average. Unfortunately, he didn’t exactly squash concerns, getting knocked out in the fourth innings with a further drop in velocity in his first start in Miami of all places. Now he has a much more difficult matchup in Milwaukee, where the Brewers look to assault him with seven right-handed bats. RHBs had a .343 wOBA against Lester last year, but yet again, Statcast bails him out a bit with a .323 wOBA. His 28.8 Hard% was also below the league average of 31%. Never the less, this is a potent lefty-mashing lineup with Lorenzo Cain (121 wRC+, 201 ISO vs LHP since last season), Domingo Santana (129 wRC+, .216 ISO), Ryan Braun (113 wRC+, .263 ISO) and perhaps more conspicuously, Jesus Aguilar (131 wRC+, .219 ISO, 52.1 Hard%) and Jett Bandy (153 wRC+, .276 ISO). In fact, line-makers agree, giving Milwaukee the second highest implied run line (4.42) on the three game DraftKings slate.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Jon Lester, Jesus Aguilar, Jett Bandy