DFS Alerts
Not enamored with pitching choices tonight? Consider weak-contact generator Brent Suter against the struggling Cubs
The Cubs have a 4.58 implied run line that’s highest on the three game DraftKings main slate, but exceeded by the Yankees on FanDuel’s four game offering, yet Brent Suter could be a pitcher of interest if you squint hard enough. Not because players should have any great expectations for him, but because Robbie Ray and Jon Lester both have their issues and may not both be worth paying up for on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Tanaka is the much easier choice, but consider that the Cubs have struggled the first week of the season to a team 78 wRC+ and 25.3 K% against Marlins and Reds pitchers, perhaps the two worst projected staffs in baseball. Suter averages just under 87 mph with his fastball, and allowed three runs in five innings in his opening start in San Diego (one BB, four Ks), but was an extremely proficient contact manager last season. His 84 mph aEV and 23.7% 95+ mph EV are lowest on the board for the entire day, verifying his .310 wOBA with a .303 xwOBA. Suter is cheap ($6.3K on DK) and may be useful if players are concerned about paying up for flawed pitchers tonight. This certainly doesn’t mean that Cubs bats are off the radar on a three game slate, although it’s perplexing that Ben Zobrist (50 wRC+, .117 ISO vs LHP since 2017) is up in the order with Albert Almora Jr (134 wRC+) dropped down. Kris Bryant (160 wRC+, .237 ISO), Willson Contreras (132 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (125 wRC+, .236 ISO) have punished LHP since last season, though Suter held down LHB last year (.236 wOBA). Though not at a discount batting low in the order, even Javier Baez (115 wRC+, .246 ISO, 41.8 Hard%) is worth a look on a small slate against a soft-tossing lefty. Brent Suter did have an 18.8 K% and 9.0 SwStr% that probably exceeds expectations considering the stuff.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora, Javier Baez
Adam Wainwright struggled against LHBs last season (.351 wOBA), but the Diamondbacks lack firepower from that side
Adam Wainwright makes his first start of the season after a short DL stint with a hamstring issue. He surprisingly had a league average .326 xwOBA some 20 points below his actual mark last year, though a .346 xwOBA against LHBs confirms his actual .351 mark. While the inclination might be to jump on Arizona bats against a pitcher with a potential leg issue and poor splits with the platoon disadvantage, we see an implied run line of just 3.64 for the Diamondbacks in a tough and only one real LHB who has been above average against RHP since last year: Alex Avila (132 wRC+, .202 ISO, 53.8 Hard%). If you’re relying on speed, Ketel Marte (87 wRC+, .125 ISO) and Jarrod Dyson (96 wRC+, .114 ISO) need to reach base first and then deal with a diminishing, yet still difficult Yadier Molina behind the plate. David Peralta (110 wRC+, .161 ISO) has been competent, but failed to match his big 2016 last year. Also consider that Wainwright may not have a long leash in this game and the Diamondbacks may be left to play matchups with the Cardinal bullpen after just two times through the order whether the veteran is pitching well or not.
Other tagged players: Ketel Marte, Jarrod Dyson, David Peralta, Adam Wainwright Both Masahiro Tanaka and the Orioles project for strikeouts and home runs
Buck Showalter continues to experiment in the leadoff spot and tonight, it’s Trey Mancini (123 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2017) who gets the call. Despite many faults, the one thing this Baltimore lineup does not lack is power. Each of the first seven batters in the order have generated an ISO above .170 against RHP since last season with the surprising leader being Colby Rasmus (121 wRC+, .266 ISO, 44.2 Hard%). No batter in the lineup beyond the two mentioned has a wRC+ that exceeds 112 against RHP over this span. That makes Masahiro Tanaka an extremely interesting arm tonight for FanDuel players (not on the main slate on DraftKings). If he has a flaw, it’s HRs. He allowed 35 last year and 1 in his first start in Toronto. Trey Mancini is not a bad play at all tonight. Tanaka does not have a platoon split. Batters from either side had more than 15 HRs against him. His stuff does not go side to side. It goes straight down or hangs in the zone. When it does get that drop though, he may be unhittable. He had eight strikeouts in his first start as well, while his 15.1 SwStr% edges Robbie Ray’s 14.2% by nearly a full point. PlateIQ gives this confirmed lineup a 25.1 K% against RHP last year. Exposure to Tanaka is a near must on FanDuel, where players may want exposure to high powered Baltimore bats too. Perhaps Tanaka plus Mancini can be a super-contrarian play that pays off.
Other tagged players: Trey Mancini, Colby Rasmus Robbie Ray's velocity was down nearly two mph, could be a trap against a lineup with 11.9 BB% against LHP
Robbie Ray struck out eight of 25 Rockies in his initial start in Arizona last week. That’s the good news. He should be the easy pick on a three game slate where you have to choose two pitchers. The bad news is that he allowed three HRs along with three walks and his average velocity was down nearly two miles per hour. Robbie Ray at 94.5 mph is different than Ray at 92.8 mph. He gets a significant park upgrade in St Louis, humidor or not, in a park that suppresses RH power almost as well as any in the league, but the larger concern (aside from velocity) is a confirmed Cardinals’ lineup with a massive 11.9 BB% against RHP in 2017. Unfortunately, walks don’t run up fantasy points and Ray should still accumulate a few strikeouts, so it’s still difficult to recommend opposing bats in this spot, though Jose Martinez (231 wRC+, .456 ISO) and Paul DeJong (158 wRC+, .346 ISO) absolutely punish southpaws.
Other tagged players: Robbie Ray, Paul DeJong Gregory Polanco looks healthy, has a 198 wRC+ through his first 25 PAs this year
Homer Bailey did not allow a HR to the Washington Nationals and even allowed just one run over six innings despite as many walks as strikeouts last week. Last year, however, he had a .361 xwOBA that’s highest on the evening slate with an actual wOBA 17 points higher. Though his actual numbers show a bit of a reverse split, batters from either side had an xwOBA above .360 against him. He had just a 1.0 Hard-Soft% against LHBs. While the park is an all around upgrade for him in Pittsburgh, it doesn’t suppress LH power nearly as much as RH (though still better than Cincinnati) and the Pirates could have some lefty thump this year. Josh Bell (113 wRC+, .212 ISO) and Corey Dickerson (109 wRC+, .213 ISO) have similar production against RHP since last year, but if Gregory Polanco (95 wRC+, .168 ISO) has a healthy shoulder this year, he’s the real star and it seems that might be the case. He has a 198 overall wRC+ through his first 25 PAs this season with just one HR, but three doubles.
Other tagged players: Josh Bellamy, Corey Dickerson, Homer Bailey RHBs had a .355 wOBA, but just three HRs (122 PAs) in a park that suppresses RH power
The Reds at Pirates was the only game with even minor weather concerns (though it’s cold everywhere) among the four evening games. Pittsburgh is a park that suppresses right-handed power, allowing Steven Brault (a LHP) to allow just three HRs total last year (all vs RHBs) despite a .355 wOBA and 39.6 GB% with the platoon disadvantage for 122 PAs last year despite just a 14.8 K%. 40 LHBs generated just a 16.7 Hard% against him. Joey Votto (152 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since last season) has no platoon splits, but the right-handed power of Eugenio Suarez (141 wRC+, .246 ISO) and Adam Duvall (141 wRC+, .313 ISO) could have a slightly diminished outlook considering the park and conditions. Though that may not be enough to remove them from consideration, especially on a three game slate on DraftKings, the Reds have a 3.69 implied run line near the bottom of the board.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez Andrew Cashner couldn't retain his weak contact magic, pummeled for three HRs in first Baltimore start
FanDuel players are being treated to a four game slate with a half hour earlier start, including the Orioles at Yankees, while DraftKings does not. In this case, the Yankees are the only lineup to exceed an implied run line of five and are over a half-run above all other competitors. Andrew Cashner relied on weak contact (3.9% Barrels/BBE) to generate a 3.40 ERA two runs below his SIERA due to a .266 BABIP and 8.6 HR/FB. Statcast was somewhat of a believer with a .326 xwOBA, still 17 points above his actual mark. It was highly questionable whether he could remain an effective pitcher with just a 12.2 K% last season. His first start for the Orioles wasn’t pretty. The Twins took him deep three times, though he struck out five. It’s not going to get any easier in Yankee Stadium. The good news is that he’s held RHBs below a .300 wOBA with a GB rate above 55% in two of the last three seasons. Guys like Brett Gardner (122 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP since last season), Didi Gregorius (132 wRC+, .248 ISO) and Neil Walker (124 wRC+, .190 ISO) could do the bulk of the damage. However, Cashner attacks RHBs with a majority of sinkers and cutters, both pitches Aaron Judge (178 wRC+, .356 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (142 wRC+, .323 ISO) exceed a .400 xwOBA against since 2016 according to PlateIQ. Gary Sanchez (120 wRC+, .239 ISO) does cost just $3.1K too. The Yankees run out a stars and rookies lineup tonight with the latter comprising the bottom three in the order. Tyler Wade (23 wRC+, .081 ISO) the lone lefty among them.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Neil Walker, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez Easy Choice at Pitcher
There are only three games on the slate tonight (four on FanDuel), which makes Robbie Ray the clear target at pitcher. Even though his matchup against the Cardinals on the road isn’t ideal, he’s still the best that we have to work with. Ray has had one of the highest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball since the beginning of last season, so even if he gives up a couple of runs, he still offers a high ceiling.
Bad Ballpark, but Plenty of Upside
Gregory Polanco hasn’t turned into the power hitter that many were hoping, but he still hits for a decent average and can steal bases every now and then. The Pirates draw an exploitable matchup against Homer Bailey, who has struggled with both left and right-handed hitters. This is a potential stacking opportunity.
Sneaky Offense to Target
Jon Lester will garner some ownership at pitcher tonight for two reasons. He’s still a big name in baseball and there are limited options at pitcher. Personally, I would rather target the Brewers’ offense. This game is being played in the hitter-friendly Miller Park and Lester hasn’t been very sharp so far this season. Lester gave up a .346 xwOBA to righties last season and he is routinely one of the worst when it comes to stolen bases allowed.
Value in the Outfield
There are only three games on the schedule tonight, so we have limited options at every position. One of the top value plays on the board is Adam Duvall. He has mashed left-handed pitching throughout his career and gets to face Steven Brault in PNC Park. This isn’t the best ballpark for hitters, but Brault gave up a .343 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters last season.
Hunter Renfroe has a 177 wRC+ and .372 ISO vs LHP since last season
Joey Lucchesi greatly improved his stock with a strong 2017 season in which he struck out around a quarter of batters faced with a 6% walk rate between high A and AA. With no AAA experience prior to his first major league start, the 24 year-old lefty struggled against Milwuakee, striking out just one and allowing three earned runs in 4.2 innings. He has some deception in his delivery, which helps a mere 90 mph fastball. While it’s odd to suggest Colorado hitters outside of Coors, especially in San Diego of all places, they are facing a lefty with mediocre stuff in the only game without any weather concerns this afternoon. Of course, we have to consider Coors with most of these numbers (outside Iannetta, who played in a bit less of a hitter’s haven last year), but only Ian Desmond (76) and Gerardo Parra (101) and Pat Valaika (110) fail to contribute a 140 or better wRC+ against LHP since last season with only Desmond (.126), Parra (.104) and DJ LeMahieu (.205) below a massive .250 ISO. Yes, even Charlie Blackmon (140 wRC+, .242 ISO) has contributed substantially against LHP. Tyler Anderson occasionally showed flashes of his 2016 prowess last season and was absolutely mauled by the Diamondbacks in his first outing this year (2.1 IP – 7 ER – 4 BB – 3 K). Though an xwOBA 37 points lower, RHBs have a .358 wOBA against him since last season with a 33.3 Hard%. The Padres now have a couple of lefty-mashers in the lineup in Hunter Renfroe (177 wRC+, 372 ISO since last season) and Jose Pirela (151 wRC+, .267 ISO), not yet considering Christian Villanueva’s seven career HRs in 43 career PAs overall. He had a 129 wRC+ and .231 ISO at AAA last year. The 7.5 run total is the lowest on the six game slate, potentially limiting hitter ownership.
Other tagged players: Jose Pirela, Christian Villanueva, Tyler Anderson, Joey Lucchesi, Ian Desmond, Gerardo Parra, DJ LeMahieu, Charlie Blackmon, Patrick Valaika RHBs had a .362 wOBA and 34.5 Hard% against Martin Perez last year
Martin Perez was held back due an elbow issue and will make his first start in Oakland. Combine that with a 14.2 K% last season and this is not a pitcher players want to be rostering against an Oakland lineup with some right-handed thump. Although Kevin mentions a possibility of rain, this is one of the less risky afternoon games without freezing temperatures. RHBs had a .362 wOBA with an xwOBA 10 points higher against Perez last season and a 45.4 GB% with a 34.5 Hard%. Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, and Chad Pinder are the top right-handed bats against southpaws since last season. All three have a wRC+ between 105 and 115 with an ISO between .200 and .230. Pinder costs less than $3K on either site out of the two hole. Daniel Mengden is an interesting arm on a slate where it might be worth speculating for less than $7K on either site. While he got torched for five earned runs in 5.2 innings by the Angels Saturday, he struck out five, while walking one without a HR. A recent Fangraphs scouting report suggests a lingering rib injury contributed to 2017 struggles and said that “everything is average or a tick above” when health and in fact, his first game velocity was about a half-mile per hour above last year in his first start. Mengden only had a 17.2 K% last year and carries some risk against an offense that can make some hard contact, but they struck out 24.3% against RHP last year with just an 82 wRC+ on the road. Joey Gallo (124 wRC+, .350 ISO, 46.7 Hard%, 57.5 FB% vs RHP since last season) is certainly a significant threat to go deep..
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Chad Pinder, Matt Chapman, Martin Perez, Daniel Mengden, Joey Gallo James Paxton was roughed up in his first start, has to deal with freezing conditions in Minnesota
James Paxton has become a top arm on a lot of slates and certainly on this six game board, though several teams have a lower implied run line than Minnesota’s 3.94. Conditions in Minnesota are expected to be borderline atrocious, with temperatures struggling to reach freezing and snow expectations sometime during game hours. While this is generally weather that dampens offense, it can also cause issues with pitch grips if the pitcher can’t feel the ball and it doesn’t help that Paxton got spanked in his first start (4.2 IP – 6 H – 6 ER – 2 HR – 4 BB – 4 K). He held late 2017 season velocity above 95 mph first time out and the good news is that weather is going to play a part in every game except San Diego this afternoon. While Paxton did not exhibit a reverse split for the a second straight year last season, he did hold batters from either side to an xwOBA between .250 and .270. Same handed batters were still dominated from a batted ball perspective (59.4 GB%, 18.8 Hard%). The Twins do have thier lefty-mashers in Brian Dozier (179 wRC+, .308 ISO since last season) and Miguel Sano (154 wRC+, .304 ISO), who can probably hit it out under any conditions. Kyle Gibson struck out six of 23 batters in his first start with just an 8.3 Hard%, but he also walked five. For years, the stuff has seemed better than the results. While batters from either side exceeded a .350 wOBA against him last year, xwOBA drops his mark against LHBs by 29 points to right around league average. Considering that this is a park that suppresses left-handed power under normal conditions, Robinson Cano (139 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since last season) could be over-valued. Mitch Haniger (148 wRC+, .220 ISO) has punished same-handed pitching in his Seattle career.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Robinson Cano, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Gibson, Brian Dozier Jordan Zimmermann struck out eight, James Shields none, while both allowed four runs in first starts of season
A Jordon Zimmermann/James Shields matchup would appear to be a DFS dream on the offensive side except when you realize that the offenses are the Tigers and White Sox in 2018. To make matters worse, temperatures are expected to be near freezing with the potential for light snow and winds blowing in from right at around 10 mph. Also, Nick Delmonico and Welington Castillo are NOT in the lineup. While both allowed four runs in their initial starts of the season, Shields allowed one HR without striking out any of the 25 Royals he faced, while Zimmermann surprised by striking out eight of 24 Pirates. Each walked just one. Both of these offenses have healthy run projections above four. The worst of the splits, LHBs torched Shields last year for a .388 wOBA, While RHBs had just a .309 wOBA, the xwOBA was 23 points higher. Batters from either side had a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against Zimmermann last season. Neither pitcher had a ground ball rate above 41.3% or hard hit rate below 32% against batters from either side of the plate. Top bats against RHP since last season all belong to the White Sox: Yoan Moncada (123 wRC+, .220 ISO, 44.3 Hard%), Avisail Garcia (121 wRC+, .179 ISO), and Jose Abreu (128 wRC+, .242 ISO). Matt Davidson has just an 84 wRC+, but with a game best .254 ISO and 40.8 Hard%. For the Tigers, both Miguel Cabrera (81 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Victor Martinez (88 wRC+, .132 ISO) have struggled, but both have a hard hit rate above 40% against righties since last season. Keep in mind, everyone in Detroit seems to run higher hard hit rates. Jeimer Candelario (.138 ISO) and Mikie Mahtook (.155 ISO) share a team high 103 wRC+ vs RHP. Considering the weather and scope of the offenses, players could consider a fade, especially with Zimmermann’s unexpected opening start competence, but weather is expected to play a factor in most spots this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Matt Davidson, Yoan Moncada, Avisail Garcia, Jordan Zimmermann, James Shields, Jeimer Candelario, Mikie Mahtook, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez