DFS Alerts
Derek Holland induced a 33.4% GB% and 25.7% Hard-Soft% versus RHB in 2017
The Los Angeles Dodgers are off to a dreadful start to the 2018 campaign after being held scoreless by the San Francisco Giants pitching staff in each of their first two outings. However, this slow start could open up the possibility to roster several big-name Dodgers bats at depressed ownership in a quote-on-quote smash spot against Derek Holland, who is only a member of the Giants starting rotation because of injuries to Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija during spring training. The Dodgers have rolled out a lineup with seven right-handed bats for Saturday’s matchup in an effort to take advantage of Holland’s abysmal 2017 splits against right-handed hitters, evidenced by a 17.5% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, 43.2% fly ball rate, and a massive 40.8% hard-hit percentage. All in all, those metrics led to a whopping .408 wOBA, 5.97 xFIP, and 2.26 HR/9 versus righties last season. Holland recorded an even lower 13.4% strikeout rate to left-handed batters, but he was still marginally better against lefties, inducing a 54.1% ground ball rate and 28.6% hard-hit percentage, making the lone-lefty in the Dodgers order, Cody Bellinger, a logical fade candidate in Dodgers stacks. This leaves Enrique Hernandez (41.0% HH%, 0.402 xwOBA, 0.311 ISO vs LHP), Austin Barnes (40.4% HH%, 0.424 xwOBA, 0.257 ISO vs LHP), Logan Forsythe (44.2% HH%, 0.437 xwOBA, 0.164 ISO vs LHP), and Chris Taylor (0.411 xwOBA, 0.190 ISO vs LHP) as the primary hitters to target for all formats on tonight’s seven-game main slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Austin Barnes, Logan Forsythe, Chris Taylor, Derek Holland
Quiet weather forecast for Saturday's seven-game MLB main slate
In Kevin Roth’s updated MLB weather forecast, there is no major issues or concerns to report for any games on Saturday’s main slate. In fact, there doesn’t even appear to be any potential wind situations to take advantage of, since the “strongest” winds are in Baltimore but are only blowing out to left field at 10mph. There already was one postponement in the earlier slate of games, as the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Detroit Tigers was called prior to first-pitch and has been rescheduled for Sunday at 6:10 pm ET as part of a split doubleheader. That being said, be sure to check out the full updated forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below for all your weather-based daily fantasy needs.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather The Miami Marlins confirmed starting lineup recorded just a 0.165 ISO in 2017
Darvish is set to make his 2018 and Chicago Cubs debut in Saturday’s matchup with the Miami Marlins and is poised to be the top starting pitching option on tonight’s seven-game main slate. Even coming off a down year, Darvish still grades out the highest in terms of pure strikeout ability considering he had notched three straight seasons with at least a 30.0% strikeout rate prior to last year’s career-low 27.3% whiff rate. There was also nothing in Darvish’s 2017 pitching profile to suggest that he lacks the necessary stuff to prevent his strikeout totals rebound this season, as he still managed to induce a swinging strike 12.5% of the time during his 2017 campaign. On top of that, Darvish hasn’t posted a walk rate higher than 7.6% the last two years, which just further adds to his floor against this Marlins lineup that produced an impressive 9.9% walk rate in their combined plate appearances last season. The only time a matchup becomes a real concern for Darvish is when an opposing lineup possesses real power threats, something this Miami squad seriously lacks as their confirmed lineup sports just a 0.165 ISO and a 29.9% flyball rate from the 2017 season. Other than the matchup itself, the Cubs are the largest favorites on the entire slate (-205 ML), so Darvish theoretically should be the beneficiary of plenty of run support, making him, not only, the highest upside starting pitcher of the night but also the safest on paper.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Saturday's PIT-DET game postponed due to rain
The matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Detroit Tigers on Saturday afternoon has been postponed due to impending inclement weather. The two teams have already announced that today’s game will be rescheduled for Sunday at 6:10 pm ET as part of a split doubleheader with the first game beginning at 1:10 pm ET.
As reported by: Chris McCosky via Twitter The Clear Ace Of Saturday Night
Darvish is in a tier of his own tonight. He has the highest strikeout rate on the slate at 27.3% in 2017, which likely has nowhere to go but up, as that was his career low mark. He also gets the best matchup on the board in a pitchers park against a low power opponent with a right-handed heavy lineup. Don’t overthink this one.
More Dodgers Righties
Austin Barnes is just too cheap to keep off the Core play list on DraftKings tonight. Just as with Matt Kemp and all the Dodgers righties, Derek Holland is a pitcher to attack with his low strikeouts and high hard contact rate. Barnes showed excellent plate skills in 2017 with a 15.5% K rate and 13.2% BB leading to a .372 OBP along with a 40% hard hit rate that gave him a .377 wOBA and .257 ISO. I won’t call him a Core play on FanDuel and FantasyDraft where you don’t need a catcher, but I still like him there.
Excellent Matchup
Good hitting environments in Baltimore and Arizona combined with the Dodgers offensive struggles to start the season may have DFS’ers overlooking LA hitters but make no mistake – this is an excellent matchup for Dodger right handed bats. Derek Holland is well past his prime and isn’t much more than a high ERA, low strikeout innings eater at this point in his career. Albeit a small sample, Holland allowed a .408 wOBA to right handed hitters in 2017, a marked increase from his already career poor .347 wOBA allowed. Puig has an easily accessible price point and gives you both power and speed upside.
Value Belt
In order to fit Yu and some higher priced bats in good environments, you’re going to have to go cheap somewhere. First base as a whole is relatively weak on this slate so it makes sense to save a few bucks with Belt. Belt had the unenviable task of facing Kershaw and Wood the first two games of the season but will at least have the platoon advantage in Saturday’s matchup against Kenta Maeda. Owning the platoon advantage should move Belt up the order where he can have more opportunities to flash his 130 career wRC+ versus right handed pitching.
Cashner's Misery
We all know how this story ends. Target Andrew Cashner in a good hitting environment and be disappointed that he somehow makes it through the game unscathed. Cashner somehow escaped 2017 with a 3.40 ERA (5.52 SIERA) while posting a lowly 12.2% strikeout rate. On top of not striking people out, Cashner has been historically bad in terms of stolen base prevention throughout the course of his career. Dozier’s power + speed give him one of the highest overall ceilings of the entire slate.
Suter's Suitor
There’s a simple rule of thumb when choosing your second starting pitcher on DraftKings: when all of the secondary options suck, take the cheapest one. While Yu stands out as the de facto SP1 on the slate, SP2 is a bit of a mess with a bunch of “meh” options. Suter was good in 2017 posting strong run prevention numbers and while he won’t wow you with his stuff a matchup with the Padres should help inflate his strikeout numbers a bit.
Dodgers Get Going Tonight
The injuries to the Giants rotation have brought Derek Holland back into our life. Holland had an absurd 5.97 xFIP against right-handed bats in 2017 with a 17.5% K rate, 12.6% BB and a .408 wOBA allowed. I would call Enrique Hernandez the Core play here, except for the pinch-hit risk. With Matt Kemp, we get a nice discount on a guy who still showed outstanding plate skills against lefties with a 14.5% K rate and 10.9% BB and was simply the victim of bad luck BABIP in 2017, as he hit plenty of line drives with hard contact. Load up these Dodgers tonight.
Revenge of the Cubs
It was a tough night for Cubs backers on Friday, but Odrisamer Despaigne will give them a chance to get back on track in a hurry (if he gets the start after pitching an inning last night). The only skill Despaigne has even shown is soft contact, but his strikeout rate is so dangerously low, that I don’t see how he can get through this lineup. If Ian Happ has a weakness, it’s contact, but against the career 10.9% K rate of Despaigne vs LHB, contact will not be an issue. Happ should be back at the top of the lineup with his .357 wOBA and .286 ISO and power/speed combo that gives him plenty of ways to help our DFS rosters.
Lefty Power in a Hitter's Park
Andrew Cashner can be annoying to play against, but that’s mostly with right-handed bats. Against lefties, his strikeout rate was all the way down at 12.5% and more importantly, he loses his ground ball ability to LHB. Logan Morrison smashed right-handed pitching in 2017 with a .298 ISO and a home run every 12 AB.
Another Power Bat With An Inexpensive Price Tag
If you consistently picked on Andrew Cashner throughout the 2017 campaign it probably didnt work out well for you, but it was not because the Minnesota Twins right-hander was good, he was actually extremely lucky, posting an ERA nearly two runs lower than his xFIP, along with a pathetic 12.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed batters. Eddie Rosario does his best work against right-handed pitching (.377 wOBA), and he should find success tonight against a very hittable pitcher in hitter-friendly Camden Yards.
Home Run Potential At A Bargain Basement Price
Ian Kennedy was a very hittable pitcher in 2017, surrendering a whopping 34 home runs, including 18 of those to left-handed hitters, while also allowing a 47.1% had-hit rate. Needless to say, this is a pitcher we can attack with left-handed power. Nick Delmonico has shown a nice power stroke (.362 wOBA VS RHP) in his young career, and I like his chances of taking the homer -prone Kennedy out of the yard tonight.