DFS Alerts
Luke Weaver recorded a 23.1% K-BB% versus RHB last season
Weaver is set to make his 2018 debut in Sunday’s matchup with the New York Mets and has the potential to end up as the top value at the starting pitcher position on the early main slates across the industry this afternoon. Weaver flashed some serious potential in his second stint in the Majors during the 2017 season and, though the sample size isn’t tremendous, posted a 3.29 SIERA that is significantly lower than his career 4.56 ERA, indicating he should be in line for some positive regression in the run prevention department. In addition, his overall pitching profile also checks out to this point, as Weaver has recorded a 28.6% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, 50.0% ground ball rate, and just a 25.9% hard-hit percentage in 60.1 innings pitched last season. Weaver did surrender a bit more hard contact to right-handed batters (29.3%) over that stretch, which could be a bit of an issue against this Mets lineup that sports six righties this afternoon, but even if that hard-hit percentage sustains itself into this year, it is roughly the league average and shouldn’t be considered a negative factor when rostering Weaver in daily fantasy formats. One potential red flag with Weaver’s strikeout skill set is the 9.8% swinging strike rate he registered in 2017, and while swinging strikes aren’t the end-all-be-all of predicting future strikeout success rates, it does help to have that in a pitcher’s arsenal since called-strikes can be inconsistent, to say the least. The site where Weaver is drastically underpriced this afternoon is DraftKings, where he can be had at a massive discount over Jose Quintana, who is exactly $3700 more expensive, making Weaver a logical SP2 candidate in cash games and an interesting tournament target if looking to fade the potentially high ownership of Quintana in most contests.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ
No Flaw In These Skills
With KC being rained out, I’m going to add another Cardinals bat to my list of Core Plays. I have some reservations about going too heavy against Steven Matz, but I love these salaries and skill sets. It was a small sample size, but Jose Martinez skill set against lefties in 2017 was other-worldly. He posted a .493 OBP, .539 wOBA and .441 ISO with a 40% hard hit rate. Even with a significant pullback, this would be a matchup worth it’s price.
Sunday's CHW-KC game postponed due to inclement weather
The matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals on Sunday afternoon has been postponed due to impending inclement weather. The two teams have already announced that today’s game will be rescheduled for April 28th as part of a day-night doubleheader with the first game beginning at 1:15 pm local time, while the second leg was moved to 7:15 pm that evening.
As reported by: Jeffrey Flanagan via Twitter Sunday's Best Pitcher Matchup
Jose Quintana has the best combination of skill set and matchup and today’s slate. He is coming off a season where he set his career high with a 26.2% strikeout rate while continuing to show good control. The Marlins will be a team to pick on all year, as they have virtually no right-handed power to threaten Quintana. He is the safest pitcher on the day, and carries as much upside as anyone. His FanDuel price is too low, and a virtual must play, on DK/FDDRFT, he is farily priced but still the top option in all formats.
Don't Overpay
The SS position is barf worthy on FanDuel as, once again, the absence of the Houston/Texas game takes Carlos Correa away as the top option. With no Correa, you’re left with the option of either overpaying for someone (if spending, Machado is the guy you want) or filling in the position with a cheap guy that should have a decent spot in the order. Eduardo Escobar fits the latter requirement as he’ll likely hit sixth for the Twins in one of the better run producing environments of the main slate on FanDuel. Note: keep an eye on the Twins lineup as a whole and their implied run total as we get closer to game time. The implied run total is already inching down, which isn’t too worrisome when considering rostering a $2,200 player, but you’re likely not going to want overexposure to this Twins offense.
Consider Me in Cash Games
Brad Miller in cash you say? You can’t be serious! Here’s the thing – after Altuve, second base projections drop off a steep cliff. I don’t mind tinkering with the Odor’s of the world but if the Texas players aren’t an option on your site of choice (cough, cough FanDuel) or you’re looking to save a few bucks at the position, Miller makes a ton of sense. Early season injuries have thrust Hector Velazquez into the Sox rotation to start the year. Velazquez is an interesting story as he’s a 29 year old prospect (!?) coming over from Mexico (he threw in the Sox organization last year). Hector doesn’t rely on the strikeout, which is good news for Miller whose whiff-heaviness (is that a thing) is easily the biggest hole (pun intended) in his game. Miller will bat toward the middle of the order for the Rays and gives you some cheap pop in a decent matchup.
Go Low on FD
Joey Gallo is a primary target on DraftKings but since FanDuel left the Houston/Texas game of fantasy goodness off their main slate we have to look elsewhere. Morrison has been in play on FD to start the season largely because of his price tag. He remains cheap on Sunday and should continue to hit toward the middle of the Twins order in a good hitting environment at Camden in Baltimore. LoMo has yet to pay fantasy owners off yet this season but he remains a good bang for your buck and can be considered a play in all formats.
The Cubs Big Righty
With no Houston on the FanDuel Main Slate, I’ll use my big spend on Kris Bryant against Dillon Peters. I don’t love this play as much as I want to, as Peters looks like he’s going to be a solid pitcher with an ability to limit hard contact. But Bryant has the skills to beat him with elite plate skills that led to a .439 OBP against LHP and the ability to hit the ball in the air, even against a ground ball pitcher. He should also get a couple shots at the Marlins bullpen.
Great Price on a Well-Rounded Hitter
Tommy Pham is way too cheap for a guy coming off a .306/23 HR/25 SB season. Against left-handed pitching, he posted a .412 OBP with a .405 wOBA and .260 ISO. He will be in the middle of the lineup against Steven Matz, who was well below average against right-handed batters with a 17.1% K rate and .370 wOBA allowed.
Too Good Against Lefties
I don’t feel great about calling Houston the top offense, as Mike Minor was excellent out of the bullpen last season. But, with the highest projected team total in a good hitting environment, if I’m spending up for bats, it starts with the Astros. Even if Minor can carry his skills back into the rotation, Springer is a tough out. He had more walks than strikeouts against left-handed pitching in 2017 with a .423 OBP, .413 wOBA and .248 ISO. He hits at the top of a loaded lineup and can score points in multiple ways.
Too Cheap For These Skills
It was only 60 innings, but based the 2017 season from Luke Weaver, he is clearly underpriced on DK/FDRFT. There was not a single flaw in his skill set with 28.6% K, 6.8% BB, 49% GB and just 26% hard hits allowed. It’s a fairly neutral matchup against the Mets but it’s a cool day in a decent park for pitchers. Sure there’s some risk with someone this young, but there’s also room for growth.
Multi-Homer Upside At A Discounted Price
At the age of 30, Justin Smoak finally broke out (38 HR and 90 RBIs), showing off the skills we knew he had all along. As a switch-hitter, Smoak will always have the splits in his favor, but he has traditionally been a better hitter from the left side of the plate, which is where he will begin today. The matchup versus Sonny Gray is not ideal, but Smoak is one of very few hitters in this price range that has double-dong potential.
Best Bang For Your Buck In The OF?
With the Chicago Cubs facing a left-handed pitcher, it is very likely we Albert Almora Jr in the lineup, and he could very well be hitting in the lead-off spot once again. Almora Jr is best unleashed versus southpaws, registering a .342 BA and a .384 wOBA against them in 2017. On the flip side of this matchup, Miami Marlins lefty Dillon Peters did not have much success as a rookie, and I think we see him get knocked around today by the Cubbies. Considering the price and the plus matchup, Almora Jr is one of the top value plays on the slate.
Contrarian Play With Big Upside
The Baltimore Orioles are a powerful team, but they struggled mightily against right-handed pitching last year, producing a low walk rate (walking just 6.5% of the time, which was the second-worst walk rate in Major League Baseball), and a high strike out rate (whiffing 22.7% of the time, which was the ninth-highest K rate in the game). I should also note, Baltimore is predominately right-handed, and Berrios absolutely dominated right-handed hitters in 2017, posting a 24.6% strikeout rate along with a minuscule 4.3% walk rate, and a dazzling 24.0% hard-hit rate. Berrios has as much upside as any pitcher on todays slate, yet he comes with a discounted price.
Ace Skill Set At A Discounted Price
With the exception of his last two starts, Luke Weaver was outstanding in 2017. The St. Louis Cardinals rookie pitcher posted a terrific strikeout rate (28.6%), while keeping his walk rate low (6.8%), and inducing very little hard contact (25.9). The 24-year-old Weaver is only getting better, and after a monster spring (0.55 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 19 strikeouts in 16.1 IP), he should be ready to take his skills to the next level. Weaver is an ace right now, yet he is not priced like one, so we should be taking advantage of that this afternoon.