DFS Alerts
Multi-Homer Upside At A Discounted Price
Chris Davis does not make contact often, but when he does, he hits the ball a long way. So he is an ideal play when facing a pitcher that lacks strikeout upside, which is what we get tonight in Kyle Gibson. The Minnesota Twins right-hander struck out just 16.2% of the left-handed batters he faced in 2017 (while allowing a 34.2% hard-hit rate), and that bodes well for the man we call Crush Davis. Baltimore Orioles Manager Buck Showalter had Davis hitting in the leadoff spot on opening day, and if he is there again tonight, we could see him get five at-bats. Not to mention, he has multi-homer upside, making him a great inexpensive boom-or-bust option.
Two Inexpensive Arms With Quality Start Upside
With a fairly short slate on deck Saturday night, our value options on the bump are somewhat limited, but we do have a couple of decent inexpensive arms we can use as an SP2. Luis Perdomo has an excellent skill set, inducing ground balls at an elite rate (61.8%), while also showing off a low hard-hit rate (31.6%). Unfortunately, that is kind of where the good news ends for Perdomo. The San Diego Padres young right-hander has been very inconsistent in his young career, and he has not shown a very good strikeout rate (16.5%) as of yet. At the end of the day though, we are simply looking for a quality start in this price range, and I think Perdomo will provide that tonight. When healthy (which unfortunately has not been often) Brandon McCarthy has shown a pretty good strikeout rate at times throughout his career, and although Perdomo is likely your safer option of the two, McCarthy has the higher ceiling. The Philadelphia Phillies are a much improved offense with the late season addition of Rhys Hoskins and the off season addition of Carlos Santana, but they are still not a patient team, and they should strikeout out at an above average rate, giving McCarthy the potential to strikeout close to a batter per inning.
Other tagged players: Brandon McCarthy Joey Lucchesi makes his major league debut against the Brewers
Joey Lucchesi was called a potential reliever in the “others of note” section of the San Diego system write up from Fangraphs in 2016, but has improved to a 50 FV (future value) rating this year after striking out 22.4% of batters at AA last season. It seems quite a jump, skipping AAA completely, but he’s already 24 after being drafted just two years ago in the fourth round. He controls the running game, but his strength may be in a deceptive delivery. There’s not a lot of information available on him, but that could play in his favor against a revamped Milwaukee lineup that has never seen him before. Domingo Santana is coming off a breakout year against southpaws with a 130 wRC+ and .218 ISO against them last year.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Joey Lucchesi
No weather concerns on Friday night, but winds blowing out in Atlanta
For a full breakdown, check out our CrunchTime product with Kevin Roth.
As reported by: Crunch Time with Kevin Roth Oakland lineup boasts several high ISO bats against LHP
The Oakland A’s are tied for the third highest implied run line tonight (4.57) at home against Tyler Skaggs. They had just a 90 wRC+ and 24.2 K% against southpaws last year, but there’s some right-handed thunder in this lineup. Khris Davis (109 wRC+, .238 ISO vs LHP) and Matt Chapman (109 wRC+, .220 ISO) both had an ISO above .200 against lefties last year. Marcus Semien (116 wRC+, .193 ISO vs LHP career) leads off. Jake Smolinski bats second and has a career 140 wRC+ and .208 ISO against them. He costs $2.5K or less on either site. New pickup, Stephen Piscotty (139 wRC+, .205 ISO vs LHP) adds even more thump. Although the oft-injured Tyler Skaggs doesn’t have much of a platoon split with batters from either side hitting at around a league average rate(a case for Matt Olsen as well – 103 wRC+, .261 ISO vs LHP in 53 PAs), but RHBs do have a hard hit rate quite a bit higher (33.1% vs 26.4%).
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Tyler Skaggs, Jake Smolinski, Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty Doug Fister gained two miles per hour in velocity last year, but still struggled against LHBs (.365 wOBA)
Doug Fister returned to the major leagues 2017 with a fastball two miles per hour faster than when he left, which helped him to a career revival with a 15 K-BB% and 55 GB% over his last 11 starts. LHBs had a .365 wOBA and 39.6 Hard% against him overall last season. That decreased to a .335 wOBA in those last 11 starts, but with an increase in hard hit rate to 42.7%. RHBs had a 53.4 GB% and 0.8 Hard-Soft% against him last season. While that may help him against a high-powered Houston offense that is predominantly right-handed, it still doesn’t make him a pitcher players want to use, especially in a park that enhances offense so much. While Brian McCann is unfortunately absent from the lineup, Josh Reddick (131 wRC+, .190 ISO) is a reasonably priced bat in the second spot. According to Brooks Baseball, Fister attacked LHBs with a variety of pitches last season (Sinker, Cutter, Curve, Splitter). Reddick has a .360+ wOBA against sinkers and cutters since 2016 via PlateIQ. Derek Fisher struggled in his major league look last year (82 wRC+), but has had a 120+ wRC+ at every level of the minors he’s ever played at. He bats eighth, but costs the minimum on FanDuel, one of just three LHBs in the lineup. The Astros own the highest implied run line on the board (5.22). Dallas Keuchel takes the mound on the other side of this one. It was revealed over the winter that a foot injury may have led to a decline in the second half. At his best, Keuchel excels at generating weak ground balls (66.8 GB%, .279 xwOBA, -0.7 Hard-Soft% in 2017) with an above average strikeout rate (21.4%), taking some of the sting out of a difficult park in Texas. He has the largest price differential on the board ($9.2K on FD, $11.8K on DK), but the Texas offense had just a 93 wRC+ and 24.8 K% vs LHP last year.
Other tagged players: Doug Fister, Derek Fisher Blake Snell made improvements late in the year, but Boston had just a 6.7 K-BB% vs LHP
Towards the end of July, Blake Snell started throwing more curveballs and fewer fastballs, leading to more swings out of the zone and fewer walks even though he wasn’t throwing more pitches inside the strike zone according to a November Fangraphs article. He’s still a difficult roster against an offense that had just a 6.7 K-BB% against LHP last year and has since added J.D. Martinez (235 wRC+, .516 ISO vs LHP last year). While RHBs had just a .311 wOBA and 29.3 Hard% against him from that point on (237 PAs), he continued to attack them with a lot of changeups, a pitch against which Martinez has a .495 xwOBA and 89.4 mph aEV since 2016 (84 PAs), according to PlateIQ. This is still certainly a matchup one of the best right-handed hitters in the game can win. Hanley Ramirez had just a 65 wRC+ against LHP last year, but a .208 ISO and he also has an xwOBA above .400 against changeups since 2016 (.388 actual wOBA). Mookie Betts (140 wRC+, .210 ISO) is another big bat against LHP. On the other side, David Price is coming off an injury plagued season, which ended in the bullpen, but he’d previously been a workhorse, regularly pitching deep into games since 2010. He costs $10.1K on DraftKings, but the Rays represent a high upside matchup against left-handed pitchers (25.9 K% last year).
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Blake Snell, David Price Both Foltynewicz (LHBs .375 wOBA) and Pivetta (RHBs .409 wOBA) has tremendous platoon issues last year
Platoon splits may be more important in the Philadelphia @ Atlanta game than anywhere else tonight. While both Mike Foltynewicz (20.7 K%) and Nick Pivetta (24 K%) appear to have some strikeout potential, the former was very erratic (eight or more strikeouts seven times last year, but five or less 18 times), while the latter had just an 8.7 SwStr%. Meanwhile, LHBs absolutely assault Foltynewicz with a wOBA above .370 both last season and for his career. Pivetta has the reverse problem. Same-handed batters demolished him last season (.409 wOBA, 41.5 Hard%). Considering Kevin’s forecast for winds blowing 10-20 mph out towards right-center, left-handed Philadelphia bats could have the advantage here. We’re specifically looking at a top three of (111 wRC+, .106 ISO vs RHP, but a HR yesterday), Carlos Santana (123 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Odubel Herrera (98 wRC+, .166 ISO), although Rhys Hoskins has to be considered with a team leading 161 wRC+ and .333 ISO vs RHP last year. PlateIQ tells us that Foltynewicz offered up an 88.9 mph aEV to LHBs last season and likes to throw either a fastball or sinker around 60% of the time. All of these hitters have an above average (.320+) wOBA against these pitches since 2016 (.350+ against non-sinkers). The only caveat being that Rhys Hoskins struggled against 94-96 mph fastballs in just 16 PAs (.153 wOBA). The Braves, however, only start two right-handed batters against Pivetta (Kurt Suzuki and Dansby Swanson). Suzuki might be interesting with a 109 wRC+ and .206 ISO vs RHP last year, but Swanson may be unplayable (60 wRC+) out of the seventh spot, despite the 88.7 mph aEV Pivetta allowed to righties last year.
Other tagged players: Mike Foltynewicz, Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Nick Pivetta, Kurt Suzuki, Dansby Swanson LHBs have a better chance at generating air contact against Aaron Sanchez than expensive RHBs
At his best, Aaron Sanchez throws a hard, heavy sinker that grounds right-handed batters (60.3 GB%) with enough strikeouts (18.7 K% overall in 353 career innings) to be useful at a reasonable cost. Tonight is not one of those nights against the Yankees, though he may warrant limiting exposure to high priced right-handed bats. LHBs have an 11.6 BB%, 40.6% 95+ mph EV, and 28.9% fly ball rate against him since 2016 though. According to PlateIQ, he throws the sinker more than 50% of the time (against batters from either side per Brooks Baseball). Brett Gardner (124 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP last season) has a .346 wOBA (.343 xwOBA) against that pitch since 2016. While Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .364 ISO vs RHP), Giancarlo Stanton (144 wRC+, .326 ISO) and Gary Sanchez (130 wRC+, .249 ISO) all exceed the wOBA (and xwOBA) against that pitch, players are going to have to pay significantly more for a platoon disadvantage. All four, including Gardner, have put the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time against the sinker. Didi Gregorius (120 wRC+, .228 ISO) has just a 45 GB% against sinkers since 2016, but also a much lower .306 wOBA. However, Fangraphs says that Gregorius’s wRC+ improved from 92 (52 GB%) in 2016 to 134 (43 GB%) in 2017 against that pitch.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Aaron Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez Albert Almora (137 wRC+ vs LHP) bats leadoff against a potentially over-matched rookie
Caleb Smith missed enough bats in a small sample last season (20.9 K% in 18 IP) and in the minors (17.5 K-BB% in 98 AAA IP), but the 26 year-old former 14th round pick in 2013 comes with no prospect hype and probably wouldn’t be starting for many (if any) other major league teams. The Cubs are one of just two teams with an implied run line of five or higher and project to put a hurting on this potentially over-matched rookie despite the negative run environment. Albert Almora (137 wRC+ vs LHP), out of the leadoff spot is the value play here, but may be removed later in the game. Kris Bryant (150 wRC+, .218 ISO vs LHP last year) and Willson Contreras (137 wRC+, .243 ISO vs LHP) are the highlights, while Javier Baez (132 wRC+, .266 ISO) may be the rare eighth hitter who can be justified in a strong matchup at a premium position, though he’s not all that cheap.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Caleb Smith Jhoulys Chacin could be an under-valued arm against a lineup with few LH threats in San Diego
While there are pitchers with more upside, Kyle Hendricks is the plug and play against the Marlins tonight. That didn’t work out so well on Opening Day, but Hendricks’ 83.9 mph aEV is lowest on the ball. His ability to manage weak contact with a 50% ground ball rate and above average strikeout rate (21.6%) has allowed him to keep an ERA (3.03) well below his estimators, though a strand rate above 80% each of the last two years is still primed for regression. Players looking for a cheap pitcher (especially on DraftKings), who may be off most radars can consider Jhoulys Chacin in an advantageous position in San Diego, where he pitched last year. He has some extreme platoon splits (RHBs 15.4 K-BB%, 3.23 FIP, 2.6 lower aEV and 58 point wOBA last three years) and holds runners well, while the projected San Diego lineup only has one real left-handed threat (Hosmer). Sean Manaea is another high upside, high risk arm. He had just a league average 20.2 K% last year, but an 11.4 SwStr% and strong secondary pitches suggest the potential for more. The Angels had a surprisingly league low 77 wRC+ against LHP last season despite having the best right-handed hitter on the planet. With Justin Upton (137 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP career) for a full season along with some other right-handed additions, it should be a tougher lineup to navigate this year, but still not entirely without holes. Right-handed batters did rake against Manaea last year (.347 wOBA, 36.9 Hard%), so if considering taking a shot with him, players may want to hedge with some offensive exposure too here.
Other tagged players: Kyle Hendricks, Eric Hosmer, Sean Mannion, Justin Upton Tanaka (25.8 K%, 15.1 SwStr%) and Ray (32.8 K%, 14.2 SwStr%) are high upside pitchers on Friday
Masahiro Tanaka (25.8 K%, 15.1 SwStr%) and Robbie Ray (32.8 K%, 14.2 SwStr%) are your highest upside pitchers tonight. Both are surprisingly priced $9.5K or less on either site in spots that may be somewhat better than they appear. Tanaka faces the Blue Jays in Toronto, not necessarily a pitcher friendly park, but less of a home run haven than Yankee Stadium certainly. Not much of a platoon split with pitches that either go straight down or hang rather than side to side, the biggest threat in the Toronto lineup (Josh Donaldson) may be neutralized with a shoulder injury. He looked terrible making throws last night and is expected to DH tonight, enhancing the outlook for Tanaka. Ray has control and hard contact issues, but faces a perennially putrid road offense. Charlie Blackmon loses the platoon advantage and Nolan Arenado has just a career 101 wRC+ on the road vs LHP (before his HR yesterday). Patrick Corbin struck out eight Rockies last night and Ray has the potential for even more. The humidor should allow pitchers in this park to remain under-priced through April.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Robbie Ray, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado Stacking Against a Struggling Lefty
Sean Manaea has all the talent in the world, but he still struggles with right-handed hitters. He allowed a 37% hard contact rate and some fairly ugly numbers across the board to righties a year ago, and that’s not good when teams stack up the RHBs against you. He also has a tendency to blow up in the first inning, so the stack upside is immense. Mike Trout is my favorite hitter on the entire board this evening, too.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Zack Cozart
Cheap and Scarce
Semien is going to show up as a recommended player a lot throughout the year because he’s cheap and plays at a scarce position (there’s not a lot to love at SS on a daily basis outside of the Correa, Seager, Machado’s of the world). Tonight is no different as Semien is cheap, should bat top two in the order, and has the platoon advantage against Tyler Skaggs. Semien has shown solid on base skills (.323 OBP) to go along with decent pop (.193 ISO) for his career against left handed pitching and is in play in all formats.
Top Stack of the Night
If you are looking to get exposure to the top overall stack of the night, that team will likely be the Cubs. This one will be popular, so I would try to take a low-owned stance with my pitcher options if I am going to stack the Cubs in a GPP. They are facing a weak young lefty for the Marlins who really shouldn’t be in the major leagues at this point. There are plenty of Cubs hitters that can smash lefties and hit for power, so there’s plenty of home run potential here as well. There’s no reason to fade the Cubs other than making an ownership stand in GPPs.
Other tagged players: Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant