DFS Alerts
Cubs with the highest projected team run total this afternoon as they take on Paul Clemens
Journeyman Paul Clemens actually hasn’t pitched too poorly as of late, but he’ll certainly have his hands full today as the Padres face a lethal Chicago Cubs lineup that owns a .331 wOBA this season against right-handed pitching. With Clemens owning a 5.72 xFIP and surrendering 2.41 HR/9 thus far this season, it’s no secret why the Cubbies have the highest implied run total on the board for this afternoon slate. While Anthony Rizzo may be getting the day off today, digging a bit deeper reveals that it’s actually been right-handed hitters doing the bulk of the damage as they’ve posted a troubling .434 wOBA off of Clemens thus far this season. Both Kris Bryant and Addison Russell have seemingly been hitting home runs on a daily basis and are terrific options at their respective positions this afternoon. Jorge Soler also gets a nice boost as he moves up into the clean-up spot.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo
Top of Rockies order has excellent match up against Zach Davies
While the game is not at Coors, the Rockies face the Brewers today at Miller Park, a place that favors hitters. The Rockies take on Zach Davies who has a below average strikeout rate and a SIERA of 4.51. He’s also allowed a hard hit rate of > 32% to both sides of the plate over the last two seasons. The top of the Rockies lineup is primed to have a big day and Charlie Blackmon (1st), David Dahl (2nd), Nolan Arenado (3rd), and Carlos Gonzalez (4th) are who to look towards today. Gerardo Parra and Daniel Descalso bat fifth and sixth and provide some cheaper exposure if you want to try and fit them in. Tyler Anderson takes the mound for the Rockies today and while the Brewers aren’t a team to fear for the most part they have all right-handed bats in their lineup today which makes Anderson a fade as he’s given up a .327 wOBA and allowed 9 HR’s to RH bats in his 13 starts.
As reported by: Colorado Rockies official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Tyler Anderson
Several Milwaukee RHB's worth consideration this afternoon against the inexperienced Tyler Anderson
Tyler Anderson has pitched admirably for the Rockies this season but the left-hander has been roughed up a bit in each of his last two outings and has surprisingly pitched much better at Coors Field this season than on the road. With that said, his 3.51 xFIP implies that former first round pick has a very promising future at the MLB level. His teammate Jon Gray racked up 10 strikeouts against this Brewers lineup last night, and while Anderson sports a respectable 20.9% strikeout rate, it’s worth noting that Milwaukee owns a .331 team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. As you’d likely expect, Ryan Braun leads the way with a .431 wOBA against lefties, with both Chris Carter and Keon Broxton also owning wOBA’s north of .400. Jonathan Villar is just behind (.389 wOBA) and, with 50 stolen bases on the season, has plenty of upside in this matchup.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter, Keon Broxton Houston aims to prolong Gerrit Cole's recent struggles this afternoon at PNC Park
It’s not often a +EV move to pick on Gerrit Cole, but the Pirates right-hander hasn’t been his usual sharp self lately and the Pirates have actually now dropped each of his first three starts this month (as he sports a 5.40 ERA in August). With that said, it’s been Cole’s struggles with left-handed batters that has gotten him into trouble at times this season (.351 wOBA against) which doesn’t set up too well for this right-handed heavy Astros lineup. While this gives merit to consider A.J. Reed, it’s the usual suspects of Carlos Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve that are still the top options.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Carlos Correa, AJ Reed Andrew McCutchen's absence means another prominent lineup spot for Matt Joyce this afternoon
With the wheels looking to have completely fallen off for Astro’s right-handed Collin McHugh, there’s some added intrigue to this Pittsburgh lineup this afternoon. McHugh has posted an unsightly 6.43 ERA and a 29.1% hard-hit percentage since the All-Star break and now owns a 5.81 ERA and 1.61 ERA on the road this season. With that said, both right and left-handed batters have posted wOBA’s north of .357 off of McHugh this season, allowing you to comfortably target anyone in the top 2/3 of this batting order. Matt Joyce draws another start and sports a team high .402 wOBA and .278 ISO against right-handed this season, making him one of the better value plays on the board this afternoon. Andrew McCutchen is OUT.
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen Sean Manaea has a 13.0 SwStr%, but 40.0 Hard% and seven HRs allowed over the last month
Sean Manaea has a 13.0 SwStr% over the last month, but has also allowed seven HRs in five starts with a 40% hard hit rate. Cleveland does have a much lower 86 wRC+ on the road with a 15.4 K-BB% and this is a pitcher’s park, so perhaps Manaea isn’t out of the question on for $5.9K on a two pitcher site. However, RHBs have a .355 wOBA against him, so we’re also looking at a couple of affordable lefty mashers here. Mike Napoli has a 153 wRC+ and .273 ISO vs LHP since last season and costs less than $4K on DraftKings. Brandon Guyer has a 191 wRC+ and .244 ISO vs LHP this season and costs only $2.5K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Sean Manaea, Brandon Guyer
Kevin lowers risk in NYM @ STL to YELLOW
Kevin has updated his evening forecast to lower risk in the NYMets St Louis game to YELLOW from ORANGE/YELLOW, making hitters in this game less of a concern. Detroit Minnesota remains ORANGE.
C.C. Sabathia has allowed 13 HRs over his last 11 starts, but not a lot of hard contact
C.C. Sabthia has allowed 13 HRs over his last 11 starts. The strange thing is that for the season, he has a 24.8 Hard% and 23.8 Soft%. Over these 11 starts, he has a 26.3 Hard% and 23.0 Hard%. He’s still inducing a lot of weak contact and limiting hard contact plus he gets a significant park upgrade tonight. The Mariners have an outstanding 17.2 HR/FB vs LHP and a 16.6 HR/FB at home and one absolute lefty masher along with three cheap RH bats, so that may be the way to lean in this matchup despite the weak contact. Nelson Cruz (186 wRC+, .328 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the near mandatory bat whenever facing a non-elite lefty. Franklin Gutierrez (151 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP since 2015) costs $3.1K or less on either site. Mike Zunino (279 wRC+ last seven days) is an interesting cheap Catcher ($3.1K or less on either site) too now that he’s batting sixth. Leadoff man Guillermo Heredia doesn’t have much of a resume yet, but costs just $2.3K on DraftKings. None of those bats, except Cruz, have to do much at all to cover their cost and all except Heredia have significant power.
Other tagged players: Mike Zunino, CC Sabathia, Guillermo Heredia, Franklin Gutierrez Archie Bradley has a 2.3% K-BB% versus LHB
There’s a much better case to be made for using Freddie Freeman and the Braves offense here than to roster Archie Bradley. He has still not figured out how to strike out left-handed batters (16.6% K%), and he is allowing an unsightly 40.3% hard-hit rate to left-handed batters on the season. That makes this a pretty ideal spot to roll with the Braves lefties in all formats given the ballpark boost they receive at Chase Field. Unfortunately, the Braves are a weak-hitting, low-power team, and Bradley has shown the ability to post big outings occasionally this season. Clearly, there’s risk no matter which side of this matchup we choose to target. We can probably easily avoid playing Bradley but he’s definitely in consideration if wanting to roll the dice in tournaments and spend on some big bats. The Braves lefties to pair with Freeman are Jace Peterson (.156 ISO vs RHP), Nick Markakis (.147 ISO vs RHP), and Ender Inciarte.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jace Peterson, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte
Two risky spots in Minnesota and St Louis in Kevin's evening forecast
Kevin has some concerns about the weather in a couple of games tonight. The Tigers Twins (ORANGE) and Mets Cardinals (ORANGE/YELLOW) both carry a decent amount of risk tonight. Though the Cardinals are projected for one of the higher run totals tonight, it should be easy enough to entirely avoid each of the other matchups in these games. Read his full report on our Weather page (linked below) and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Cubs projected for five runs in Petco against Friedrich (RHBs .344 wOBA since last year)
RHBs have a .344 wOBA against Christian Friedrich and the Cubs are projected to score five runs in Petco. Kris Bryant (164 wRC+, .299 ISO vs LHP this season) is the obvious top bat here, but also costs $1K more than any of his teammates on DraftKings, where a guy like Dexter Fowler (140 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP this season) could generate more value for $1.6K less. The top four bats in the lineup plus Javier Baez all have a wRC+ just above 140 vs LHP since last season. Baez could be a SS bargain for $2.7K on FanDuel, though he bats down in the order, while Zobrist carries a reasonable price tag of $4K or less on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Christian Friedrich, Dexter Fowler, Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist Batters from either side have hit Jon Niese well since last season, Cardinals projected for 4.9 runs
Batters from either side have hit Jon Niese for a wOBA right around .350 since last season. The Cardinals are projected for 4.9 runs (third best) and we’re looking at the three well above average bats against LHP in the lineup tonight, all right at the top. Tommy Pham (123 wRC+, .286 ISO vs LHP this season) is the value play ($3.8K DK, $2.4K FD) and the hottest bat in the lineup with a 207 wRC+ and 66.7 Hard% over the last week. Stephen Piscotty (164 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP this season) is the obvious and expensive bat, though still less than $4K on FanDuel. Matt Carpenter (123 wRC+, .170 ISO vs LHP this season) might be contrarian play here. He’s reasonably priced at around $4K on either site and our Projected Ownership page sees him at around the 7% range on either site in a same handed matchup.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Matt Carpenter, Jon Niese White Sox (somewhat surprisingly) check-in with the highest implied run total on the slate
It’s an unusual night, as a majority of the top spots for hitters give us teams we don’t typically like targeting hitters from. Fitting into that them are the White Sox against Jake Thompson. In his first three major league starts, Thompson has failed to record any sort of significant strikeout totals (16.2% K%), and while he owns a great 59.3% ground ball rate to left-handed batters, he also surrenders a 44.4% hard contact rate to them. Meanwhile, Thompson has a below-average ground ball rate (38.9%) and a 35.0% hard-hit rate to righti-handed batters (with a hard-minus-soft of 30%). This tells us Thompson has shown almost no ability to limit hard contact whatsoever. While there are no White Sox hitters that we really love to roster, there is possibly big upside to be found from Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu (118 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .167 ISO vs RHP), and Todd Frazier (.223 ISO vs RHP). We would would prefer to run out a full stack here in tournaments and hope the lineup as a whole gets into the action as the game moves along instead of picking and choosing one off hitters.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Tim Anderson, Todd Frazier, Jake Thompson DJ LeMahieu scratched, Dahl bats second, Adames replaces and bats 8th
DJ LeMahieu has been scratched and replaced by Cristhian Adames. David Dahl bumps up to second with everyone originally behind him bumping up a spot.
As reported by: Jenny Cavnar Other tagged players: David Dahl, Cristhian Adames
Jon Gray has struggled lately, but Brewers strike out a quarter of the time at home and vs RHP
Jon Gray is coming off three rough starts in a row, failing to last five innings in any of them, two at home, but one in Philadelphia. His strikeout rate has dipped below average over the last month and his ground ball rate has dropped 10 points to 35%. There are certainly concerns here and Milwaukee is not a pitcher’s park, but it’s a significant upgrade from Coors and an offense that strikes out a quarter of the time both at home and vs RHP. They also have a 16.4 HR/FB at home (14.9 HR/FB vs RHP) and walk 10% of the time. This is a spot where some exposure on either side is justifiable. Gray costs just $7.4K on DraftKings and certainly has upside in this matchup despite recent struggles. Chris Carter (98 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be the name to look at on the other side at a cost below $4K. He’s a streaky hitter, but homered last night and has a 208 wRC+ over the last week. RHBs have a .332 wOBA against Gray in his career, though we have to note that Coors plays some part in that.
Other tagged players: Chris Carter